patrick.net

HeadSet says

socal2 says

FSD looks like it will soon eliminate the need for a driver.

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

zzyzzx says

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

I will let you know later this month once I get my free 1 month subscription that Tesla is offering all Tesla drivers.

socal2 says

zzyzzx says

Not soon, or not anytime reasonably soon.

I will let you know later this month once I get my free 1 month subscription that Tesla is offering all Tesla drivers.

Why is Telsa offering anything is my question? I thought it was a miracle car? Sales are drying up. Not the hugest state, but I have a wide network. No one is looking to buy a Tesla that doesn't already have one in IL. Going off what I see in person. Missed it during the housing bust when lumber flatbed semis literally disappeared. Private jets disappeared at my local airport.

Fact is your head needs to be on a swivel. My wife is looking for fucking eagles while she drives. I'm autistic in a sense. Something as simple as my neighborhood gas station has half the firewood purchased in 2 days. I don't need charts and graphs. It's pretty damn obvious if you're looking. I'm full blown anecdotal at this point. I don't trust a thing the media says for sure. I'd actually trust some of you here for your location based observations. Never would take a stock tip or an investment tip though.

WookieMan says

Why is Telsa offering anything is my question? I thought it was a miracle car?

Tesla's valuation "as a car company" has always been crazy high because the future value of things like Full Self Driving. Software margins and SaaS revenue potential has always been the driver for Tesla's high stock price. There is no way Tesla can sell enough cars alone to justify it's valuation.

Unlike all the other AI and large language model (LLM) developments in the last 12 months like ChatGPT which are basically novelties - Tesla's full self driving AI is already very useful and has massive revenue potential in the real world. And no one else is even remotely close to developing what Tesla already has and Tesla's lead is growing exponentially every single day as millions of Teslas on the road and feeding Tesla's machine learning. Tesla will be able to license this technology to other automakers which will allow them to make absolute bank because software margins are so good and all the cost of development has been spent.

I have personally driven at least 15,000 miles using Tesla's basic autopilot and absolutely love it and trust it more than my driving. I was coming home late last night after a customer dinner in Los Angeles and let it do 98% of the freeway driving for the 90 mile drive. It is such a better experience to let the car do the heavy lifting and allow you to relax a bit more and keep an eye on other things.

FSD is going to change transportation IMO. Robotaxis, freight, floater car to take grandparents and kids around.....

“Let the car do the heavy lifting so I can keep an eye on other things.”

FFS, that is some of the craziest shit I’ve ever read. You know you’ll be help liable if something goes wrong, right?

Apparently new unsold 2023 F-150 Lightnings are being discounted:

socal2 says

I have personally driven at least 15,000 miles using Tesla's basic autopilot and absolutely love it and trust it more than my driving. I was coming home late last night after a customer dinner in Los Angeles and let it do 98% of the freeway driving for the 90 mile drive. It is such a better experience to let the car do the heavy lifting and allow you to relax a bit more and keep an eye on other things.

You do know it's going to lead to more DUI's, right? Cops for sure profile by car. You don't need to hit a line to get pulled over. If you're swerving inside the lines that's still a reason to pull you over. Self driving is notoriously bouncing back and forth between the lines. Make sure you haven't had a drink when you say it was a client dinner. Your luck runs out at some point.

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend. This is no different than flying. If you can't hand drive a car anymore the shit will hit the fan in a multitude of ways. The DUI was because of the autopilot FYI. She would have gotten a hotel once she sat down in the car and realized she couldn't drive. I have to live with what I know. It's not fool proof. I would never drive a Tesla after having a drink. I drink a good amount. Not even one drink. ZERO DUI's. She had none until she got a Tesla. Just saying.

If you're driving after 10pm you've got a target on your back. I don't need that. Cops know you're potentially passed out in a moving vehicle. So you're going to be scrutinized more. I can keep any car between the lines smoothly. No interest in a cop thinking I'm hammered on autopilot. Because that's 100% what cops think. Hence why the insurance is so high on Tesla's.

GNL says

FFS, that is some of the craziest shit I’ve ever read. You know you’ll be help liable if something goes wrong, right?

Of course I would be liable - just like I would be liable if the standard cruise control malfunctioned and I rear ended someone in my wife's Hyundai.

Regardless, I still love using adaptive cruise control for long freeway drives and makes my drive less stressful. Tesla Autopilot and Full Self Driving are the next level beyond that where it can take you door to door.

Tesla already has over 1 billion miles clocked on Full Self Driving (human supervised) without any major accidents or injuries. Millions of new miles are being driven every single day, especially this month with every Tesla owner getting a free trial and the release of Version 12 which is the big breakthrough. All that new training data just makes the driving better and better.

Statistically you have something like 700 crashes and 17 fatalities for every 1 billion miles driven in the US. Soon there will be plenty of real data for regulators and insurance companies to consider for future rules.

WookieMan says

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend.

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot.

socal2 says

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot

Yes, we know.

Can't wait for that Single Fuckup to take Tesla out worse than Boeing. Too bad someone will have to die for it, like what happened with Uber's SDC program after they killed that cyclist in Arizona.

socal2 says

WookieMan says

The owner of the Tesla I drove got a DUI in it. So yeah, autopilot is not your friend.

Full Self Driving Version 12 is a totally different thing than standard Autopilot.

Again, if you enjoy a night out on the town, you think "self driving" it going to get you home you're absolutely wrong. It will result in more DUI accidents.

Not many Teslas here, but I'll get 2-3 lanes away on the highway if it's after 6pm. I get into a car to drive. If I can't I shouldn't. I'll stay at a hotel or buddies house.

It's not about the tech. It's about killing people based on the tech. I'm smarter than a car. I think a lot of Tesla drivers have engineer brains. They're generally dumber than street smart folks. No at fault accidents in my life. One was the other persons fault. Tesla cannot say the same.

Rivian still lost 107,000 dollars on every vehicle delivered in 2023

https://www.electrive.com/2024/02/22/rivian-records-billions-in-losses-in-2023/

Tesla In Turmoil: The EV Meltdown In 10 Charts

The layoffs at Tesla (and the recall of the Cybertruck) are only part of the electric vehicle debacle

https://robertbryce.substack.com/p/teslas-turmoil-the-ev-meltdown-in

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

Tesla In Turmoil: The EV Meltdown In 10 Charts

The layoffs at Tesla (and the recall of the Cybertruck) are only part of the electric vehicle debacle

I know you've been saying this, so have I, and you post this. Pretty damming and I don't think people understand. It's beyond the car itself. Well maybe the Cyber Truck is fucked. I think it is. Market saturation is here if not already done. One cold week in IL shows it's not a reliable car in cold temps.

They'll still sell cars, but will it be profitable? Clearest answer is no. You simply won't be able to charge them without massive brown outs cutting off EVERYONE's electric in the summer. They don't work in cold. That's not going to win over potential new customers. The grid cannot handle it and the rare earth minerals needed could go into productive stuff instead of driving around in zippy car with limited range and no utility for a family.

They won't go away, but the market is nearing its max. Need more nukes if it will ever be feasible and slave labor.

It was a poor business model. Hybrids are the market. It's kind of obvious. Cheaper, same maintenance for the most part as an EV and mechanics that have been around for a century in some family auto shops.

Hell just last week I had 3 track meets with ZERO charging stations 60 miles away (one way) in cool weather. No chance I'd trust a Tesla or any EV for that range. Between events I'll sit in the car with the heat going. I don't see myself ever buying an EV. Have driven them and they're fun. That's it. Our IL grid is solid, but I know the oil/gas grid will be there. I'm kind of in the middle of nowhere. But driving in any direction there's a gas station within 20 miles max, but no charging stations.

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

Tesla has dropped below $150, so a short position would have won.

HeadSet says

HeadSet says

WookieMan says

I don't play the stock game, but I'd be shorting if I was a gambler.

Tesla Stock trading about $170 today. Let's check back later and see if shorting would have won.

Tesla has dropped below $150, so a short position would have won.

I think it's just beginning. I don't think it will be a blood bath, but it's simple market saturation for a product 4-8% of society would buy. I can promise you between the kids goofing off around town and my walks, there's not a single Tesla or EV in our town with 800 homes.

You simply cannot sell them to rural folks. Suburban folks yes. City yes. But it's still a low percentage besides cities. I was just at a track meet yesterday in hill billy IL. 1,000 people with the kids. I'd guess 300-400 cars. Not one Tesla. No EV's at all. Maxed out parking, so yes I drove around the lot quite a bit as I was late. When you have that many cars and there's not ONE, that business model is not sustainable.

Then throw out the Pontiac Aztec of trucks and you've fucked yourself. I actually like Musk, but he's making some big mistakes. I'd keep shorting it, but again, not advice as I don't do individual stocks. I really don't see now it's going to work. High prices, government subsidies needed to break even, no infrastructure support, etc. It's a recipe for disaster.

Car rental operator Hertz (HTZ) reported it lost another $200 million due to its EV gamble.

In its first quarter earnings report, Hertz said it “upsized” its prior EV fleet drawdown plans by an additional 10,000 EVs, which led to the company incurring a $195 million charge to vehicle depreciation for writing down the value of EVs held for sale.

The company previously said it would sell off 20,000 EVs from its fleet, meaning it will now dispose of 30,000 EVs in its fleet through the end of 2024. Add today’s charge to the $245 million write-down taken in Q4, and the company has now lost $440 million on its EV gambit.

Hertz’s EV fleet — which once stood at 60,000 EVs, will be cut down to half that at 30,000 EVs. A third of Hertz’s EV fleet was from Tesla (TSLA), with the rest coming from Polestar (PSNY), Volvo (VLVLY), and Chevrolet (GM).

For the quarter, Hertz reported an adjusted loss of $1.28 a share, wider than the $0.44 loss analysts were expecting. Hertz reported an adjusted net income loss of $392 million, more than double the $147 million loss expected.

Hertz stock was down 20% in midday trading.

Hertz’s depreciation per unit (DPU) soared to $592 in the first quarter, jumping from the $498 it saw last quarter and more than double the $253 it reported in Q1 last year. Hertz blamed the deterioration in DPU on losses from the sales of gas-powered vehicles as well as on losses from the market value of EVs in its fleet and from the disposition of other EVs.

There weren’t just financial costs to Hertz’s EV bet. Last month, Hertz’s then-CEO Stephen Scherr, who spearheaded the plan to go all in on EVs, was replaced by Gil West, former COO of GM’s Cruise autonomous unit and, prior to that, COO of Delta Air Lines.

"Fleet and direct operating costs weighed on this quarter's performance," Hertz CEO Gil West said in a statement. "We're tackling both issues — getting to the right supply of vehicles at an acceptable capital cost while at the same time driving productivity up and operating costs down."

Funny thing: i did rent EVs from them several times, but not at full price - they offered them as replacement for a small sedan I usually rent (and usually don't get - they always upgrade me to midsize or bigger). It sorta worked for me, but I found the whole Supercharger thing annoying (Herz doesn't include 120V/240V adapters with their EVs, so no charging at home). We also have cheap (albeit slow) chargers at work and it was better than sitting and fingerfucking my phone for 20-40 min on end at Superchargers.

https://youtube.com/shorts/0XRgYf8Rd4o?si=-l_sJaHJWhhOKUll

Only driven one Tesla and didn't notice this, but it's worth noting. If they're shit cars that's even worse. One short clip, but I don't know, wouldn't surprise me.

WookieMan says

https://youtube.com/shorts/0XRgYf8Rd4o?si=-l_sJaHJWhhOKUll

Only driven one Tesla and didn't notice this, but it's worth noting. If they're shit cars that's even worse. One short clip, but I don't know, wouldn't surprise me.

The seasick passengers is on the driver. My wife used to do this annoying "speed up - slow down - speed up" schtick. With aggressive regen it could be more pronounced than with the engine braking, but it's still on the driver.

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion, or $132,000 for each of the 10,000 vehicles it sold in the first three months of the year, helping to drag down earnings for the company overall.

Ford, like most automakers, has announced plans to shift from traditional gas-powered vehicles to EVs in the coming years. But it is the only traditional automaker to break out results of its retail EV sales. And the results it reported Wednesday show another sign of the profit pressures on the EV business at Ford and other automakers.

The EV unit, which Ford calls Model E, sold 10,000 vehicles in the quarter, down 20% from the number it sold a year earlier. And its revenue plunged 84% to about $100 million, which Ford attributed mostly to price cuts for EVs across the industry. That resulted in the $1.3 billion loss before interest and taxes (EBIT), and the massive per-vehicle loss in the Model E unit.

RWSGFY says

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Not your empty beer bottle?

RWSGFY says

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion,

Odd that it did not affect Ford stock.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

The build quality is definitely not super: one of the Teslas I rented had what seemed to be a loose nut rolling under the floor from one side to another in every turn.

Not your empty beer bottle?

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Ford’s electric vehicle unit reported that losses soared in the first quarter to $1.3 billion,

Odd that it did not affect Ford stock.

It did. But not dramatically, because the EV losses were offset by ICE profits.

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

Run over a drunk?

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving.

Good idea. Opening a beer bottle with your teeth cause tooth loss if you hit a pothole.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving.

Good idea. Opening a beer bottle with your teeth cause tooth loss if you hit a pothole.

It's very nice of you to assume I even have teeth. Thanks!

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

Run over a drunk?

Many times, but the same question arises: how does the bottle get above the battery (and under the floor).

Right now Subaru does $241 per month, no money down, no security deposit 3 yr lease on Solterra EV. There is no way they are not losing money on this deal.

And Hyundai offers $239 per month, no down, no sec deposit, 24 months, 12K miles per year lease on Ionic 6.

This is on supposedly $46K car.

RWSGFY says

Many times, but the same question arises: how does the bottle get above the battery (and under the floor).

Drunk Mechanic.

RWSGFY says

And Hyundai offers $239 per month, no down, no sec deposit, 24 months, 12K miles per year lease on Ionic 6.

This is on supposedly $46K car.

I'm guessing they get government subsidies on the build/parts AND the sale.

Either way EV's don't make sense long term. My cheap Lipo batter on my golf cart was $1,300. I can physically flip the cart on its side if I want. Now toss a heavy battery in a 2klbs+ vehicle that needs to go 200 miles or so. That's a $10k battery at minimum. The warranty is going to start eating profits when they need to replace batteries.

The Tesla plant in Fremont is about 2000 feet from the Hayward Fault, considered by geologists as the most dangerous fault in the U.S. and the most likely major fault for the Next Big One.

Toyota bz4x in a RWD form can now be leased for $229 per month, $0 down, $0 security deposit for 36 months with 12K miles allowance.

RWSGFY says

Toyota bz4x in a RWD form can now be leased for $229 per month, $0 down, $0 security deposit for 36 months with 12K miles allowance.

May get one for my daughter. Why not when they are that cheap? She only drives local.

HeadSet says

RWSGFY says

Toyota bz4x in a RWD form can now be leased for $229 per month, $0 down, $0 security deposit for 36 months with 12K miles allowance.

May get one for my daughter. Why not when they are that cheap? She only drives local.

The problem I see with Tesla is a market saturation thing. Certain people, like me, will NEVER buy an EV. Even once we're empty nesters in about 10 years. We have the fuel and oil network in place. We don't have the electric capacity to get to a certain level without unlocking nuclear to go ape shit on power production. Hybrids are and have been the answer.

My mom is currently on her way to my house. 90 mile range roughly on electric to get to my house. When she goes back home she either has gas in the tank or can top off with a quick 3 minute fuel up. She lives a touch over an hour away. If we had hills, no chance she'd make it back if she had a Tesla round trip. So even for a widow a model 3 wouldn't work and is more expensive than the RAV 4 that she currently has.

I don't do individual stocks generally. Contemplating shorting. The ugly cyber truck will be a flash in the pan for the moment, but 2-5 year outlook in my opinion is awful if the batteries actually last 10 years. Who is going to buy it? You can get cheaper cars with better utility. Most people are not that into speed and car shit. They just want what is cheapest for the utility they'll use it for.

0-60 times don't matter to me. I know how to drive and NOT get pulled over for driving recklessly.

RWSGFY says

12K miles allowance.

Per year?

RWSGFY says

I only drink beer from cans while driving. Besides, how would it get UNDER the floor?

My great grandfather cut a hole in the bottom of the floor of his truck so he could dump beer cans/bottles if he got pulled over. Apparently back in the day Iowans worked their butts off during the growing / harvest season and they sat around drinking their asses off in the winter time.