patrick.net

Patrick says

If the country was all EVs. then there would be no gas stations and chargepoints/battery swaps would have been everywhere. As far as the new ICE vehicles, people would ask "Where are you going to refuel? Are you going to have a tanker truck follow you around?" "Even if you had fueling stations, those stations would have to be constantly serviced by tankers or run out quickly. Much easier to use the battery swap-outs that are serviced by existing power lines. "I hear you have to change the crankcase lubricant every few thousand miles, what will we do with that hazardous waste?" "Also, ICE engines are very noisy, require transmissions and thus lose efficiency, thus ICE cars are slow accelerating."

100 years ago we had cars powered by gasoline, steam, alcohol, and even electric. Gas won out over time.

HeadSet says

If the country was all EVs. then there would be no gas stations and chargepoints/battery swaps would have been everywhere. As far as the new ICE vehicles, people would ask "Where are you going to refuel? Are you going to have a tanker truck follow you around?" "Even if you had fueling stations, those stations would have to be constantly serviced by tankers or run out quickly. Much easier to use the battery swap-outs that are serviced by existing power lines. "I hear you have to change the crankcase lubricant every few thousand miles, what will we do with that hazardous waste?" "Also, ICE engines are very noisy, require transmissions and thus lose efficiency, thus ICE cars are slow accelerating."

100 years ago we had cars powered by gasoline, steam, alcohol, and even electric. Gas won out over time.

Without ICE cars, electric grid would not have progressed much beyond lighting use (with frequent residential fires due to wire shorts), and battery technology not much beyond lead-acid: wide use of plastic would not have been possible if not for the petrochemical industry developed over the early 20th century for gasoline and diesel production. Various plastics for the interior/exterior of cars as well as for the membranes used in modern lithium batteries, and for wire insulation in the electric grid were byproducts of the ICE revolution. Even lithium mining depends on massive ICE mining trucks. If the Green socialists were around in 1890 to enforce their theology, the world might just have become a bigger and longer-duration Cuba: instead of being stuck with 1950's cars for half a century, the world transportation technology standards could have stuck for a century in a mix of horses, lead-acid battery cars and bicycles.

Reality says

Without ICE cars, electric grid would not have progressed much beyond lighting use (with frequent residential fires due to wire shorts), and battery technology not much beyond lead-acid

Could be, but I was answering on that premise "all cars are EV."

The premise "all cars were EV's" would have meant no plastic, as there would have been no way of disposing of massive amount of the lighter components of the petroleum, nor would there have been the petrochemical research to result in plastics. So the dominant battery technology would have been Lead-Acid. Even today, banning all ICE cars would face the problem of what to do with the 60-70% by volume lighter components of petroleum, as making plastic and paving road would only need the most heavy 1/3 components, and the heavy EV's require frequent repaving using asphalt. What to do with the 2x more volume lighter components of petroleum that producing aslphalt (and plastics) would result as byproducts?

HeadSet says

Reality says

Without ICE cars, electric grid would not have progressed much beyond lighting use (with frequent residential fires due to wire shorts), and battery technology not much beyond lead-acid

Could be, but I was answering on that premise "all cars are EV."

We literally don't have a quality electric grid in most places. It's one thing IL and ComEd here have done 100% right. We have the most nuclear generation in the country and probably world per capita. Never have had a legit power outage more than 30 minutes. Usually only off for 30 seconds and comes back on. Some drunk hits a power pole, lightening strike, or transformer blown. That's usually the reason, but it's still back quick.

We also have some of the largest wind farms near me. Not a massive fan of "green" power, but it does make sense where I'm at. I could run a windmill to a battery pack and power things like my pool pump, outdoor landscape lighting and sound system. Today was 20mph consistent with no big gusts. So those things probably allow the nat gas power plants and coal to back off production and take over on windy days. So it makes sense.

Outside of a tornado hitting your town here, our grid is amazing here in IL. I don't give compliments to my own state often. I feel for you guys in CA. It's only going to get worse with the cyber truck and small dick syndrome and being gay. I don't think any of you have any idea how taxed your already over taxed grid is going to get. It's honestly not funny. You may have week long outages during hot stretches as people plug in all these EV's. I'd invest in ways to keep your already cold food cold for at least a couple days. Generators are obvious but I'd still at least get a huge cooler or two and grab ice the minute the power goes out. Long outage without that would cost us an east $600-1k in spoiled food.

This is what you're gonna be getting with EV's. Just amazing.

In the absence of ICE car demand for gasoline (and diesel), there wouldn't have been the petrochemical industry that has produced the plastic insulators (tubes/wire-wraps/coatings) for electric lines. Electricity distribution into households would have continued using the Knob-and-Tube method, which is not only much more expensive but also far more fire-hazardous. Under those conditions, it would be doubtful that high power household electrical appliances (such as electric stove, electric dryer, dishwasher with drying function, electric water heater, electric heater, or even central air conditioning) would have become popular. Nuclear power plants would have been quite unnecessary except for making nuclear bombs. Knob-and-Tube wire charging an EV is possible, but chances are that you would have to physically remove the Lead-Acid batteries from the car to carry them into the house to charge, because the extension electric cable with 1 or 2 elements (no grounding under Knob-and-Tube method of household wiring) wrapped in asphalt or natural rubber would be either brittle or age rapidly if exposed to UV or elements. So the EV's under those circumstances would be what we call golf carts, but even golf carts would still be better than horse-drawn carriages (which would be buses) for city dwelling household ownership living in streets filled with muck from horse-drawn "buses" and "taxi-cabs"; charging Lead-Acid batteries would be easier than buying hay every day, and a golf-cart doesn't generate vet bills just standing still. Of course kids on their way to schools would be witnessing horse-shooting in the streets frequently as a typical horse (pulling buses or taxi-cab) lasted only 2000-5000 miles, and had to be put out of misery when it collapsed.

Eman says

Porkchop,

Serious question. Have you ever owned an EV or a Tesla? My wife and I used to be ICE car drivers, and we don’t see ourselves ever going back to to ICE cars.

I've never owned an EV but I have driven them and they are indeed fun to drive. If I owned a home in CA, AZ or NV, I'd probably own an EV if I had solar on my house. But, it still probably wouldn't make economic sense but neither do many things I do...I just do them because I want to. I don't put a lot of miles on my car because I work from home, and I live in TN where EV infrastructure is more scarce. If someone does a lot of driving, especially city driving, I could see it making sense.

porkchopXpress says

I've never owned an EV but I have driven them and they are indeed fun to drive. If I owned a home in CA, AZ or NV, I'd probably own an EV if I had solar on my house. But, it still probably wouldn't make economic sense but neither do many things I do...I just do them because I want to. I don't put a lot of miles on my car because I work from home, and I live in TN where EV infrastructure is more scarce. If someone does a lot of driving, especially city driving, I could see it making sense.

Bingo. CA isn't the country. They don't make sense and the Cyber Truck makes even less sense if you try to get ANY utility out of it for the price. It's okay to like a car. Is it logical most of the time? No. I'll never buy an all EV even if in a warm climate. It makes no sense. You'll want a new car 5 years in and you still haven't even gotten your gas savings at all.

Quote this or whatever. The electric grid cannot handle it AND MFT taxes or taxes via the grid are coming EV owners ways. I think by 2025. Covid gave the EV owners an extra 2-3 years. It's coming. I won't be wrong.

Reality says

In the absence of ICE car demand for gasoline (and diesel), there wouldn't have been the petrochemical industry that has produced the plastic insulators (tubes/wire-wraps/coatings) for electric lines. Electricity distribution into households would have continued using the Knob-and-Tube method,

We are talking an "alternative history" here, a thought exercise like "what would it be like if Hitler did not invade the USSR." However, I do not think it is correct to assume that without ICE cars we would have no progress in other areas including chemistry. If, for example, the country trended to electric vehicles instead of gas we would have seen more improvements in batteries, electrical distribution, and electric drive trains. Petroleum would still be around as heating oil and lubricants, so plenty of opportunity to develop plastics and related products. If we had gone the EV route, then today's EV would be more advanced than a Tesla, just like real world ICE cars are a far cry from a Model T.

We can't even do 10% EV's currently. We're at 3% max. Your light in your home would not turn on if we got to 10% at current grid capabilities in most areas. CA grid is toast if EV's double in the next year or two. It's already shit anyway.

Your toy will become useless. it's fact.

WookieMan says

We can't even do 10% EV's currently. We're at 3% max. Your light in your home would not turn on if we got to 10% at current grid capabilities in most areas. CA grid is toast if EV's double in the next year or two. It's already shit anyway.

Over 25% of all new cars sold in California last year were electric.

California has one of the shittiest and least reliable grids in the US, so if California can cope - so will most everyone else.

Not saying that we don't have to improve our energy grid - but it is not an insurmountable task.

socal2 says

Over 25% of all new cars sold in California last year were electric.

California has one of the shittiest and least reliable grids in the US, so if California can cope - so will most everyone else.

Not saying that we don't have to improve our energy grid - but it is not an insurmountable task.

Not disputing the sales. It's fine 90% of the time. You get a hot summer and you guys are fucked even if you have the free super charger. Your car won't work. Eman might do fine with solar I suppose but you cats are still reliant on the grid no matter what. You have cars that are fucked if there's no sunshine or grid. Not really a discussion.

I'm intested to see what happens when this 25% of cars cannot move? Or your roads get shittier than they already are with no MFT. There's a lot, a ton that EV driver have zero clue about the industry. It's kind of comical and kind of scary at the same time. Enjoy the next 18 months. Your toy is gonna cost $5k/yr more. Between grid updates, MFT and overpaying for a sedan, you'll have lost $20-30k and not saved a dime.

A bit "technical" but proves my point. https://lawecommons.luc.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=2090&context=lclr

They're gonna come after you guys. Hybrids as well, which is the ultimate future. You'll pay even more for what you overpaid for a vehicle when you have to repair your suspension because of shitty roads. Winning, I guess?

If anyone, who doesn’t have solar, but is worried about power outages, consider installing a power generator.

My biz partner installed a power generator for his house, which is capable of generating equivalent to his electricity grid. It’s tied to the PG&E gas supply line. If there’s a power outage, it will kick on. Instead of paying for electricity, you pay for gas during that duration. He paid $10k to have it installed.

He has a single story Eichler house, and his neighbors have tall trees. Solar was not a viable option while he drives an X. Just food for thought.

WookieMan says

You get a hot summer and you guys are fucked even if you have the free super charger. Your car won't work.

If we have no electricity, how are the gas pumps at gas stations going to work? The pumps won't work, nor would the payment systems. Most power outages don't last for more than a day or so. Anything longer, and EVERYTHING will have issues, not just EV's.

Also, it takes 4 kWH of electricity just to refine 1 gallon of gas. That is the equivalent of my Model Y driving 15 miles just on the electricity it takes to refine a gallon of gas. That doesn't even factor in the costs and energy needed to transport the refined gasoline to the gas station.

Think of all the electricity we could save and less wear and tear on our roads if we don't need to refine and haul billions of gallons of gas all over the country.

It’s only February. Let’s go Tesla. 🚀🚀

Did it win any awards for being fugly?

Looking at getting one of the new 3's for the wife and handing her Hyundai Santa Fe down to one of my kids.

I hope the Model Y gets its update before next January when I am due to turn in my lease and get a new Tesla. All the reviews on the upgraded 3 are very good.

GNL says

Did it win any awards for being fugly?

Not yet. Did any car ever win any awards for being fugly?

socal2 says

Looking at getting one of the new 3's for the wife and handing her Hyundai Santa Fe down to one of my kids.

I hope the Model Y gets its update before next January when I am due to turn in my lease and get a new Tesla. All the reviews on the upgraded 3 are very good.

Good choice. It’s getting raving reviews. The hope for the refreshed Y is this summer, or later this year at the latest.

As much I love the ride of the M3P, I’ll likely settle for a MYP or CT from a safety POV. Since we have a ton of credit for the solar we installed last summer, I’ll see how much credit we use up before tagging on more EV tax credit. The solar tax credit can be spread out over 5 years, but the EV tax credit is only good for 1 year. It’s good not to be in a rush to buy.

Eman says

GNL says

Did it win any awards for being fugly?

Not yet. Did any car ever win any awards for being fugly?

i think pontiac vibe did, for sure had it in the bag.

Eman says

Good choice. It’s getting raving reviews. The hope for the refreshed Y is this summer, or later this year at the latest.

I hope you are right. They have to be cagey about announcing so they don't "Osbourne" current Model Y orders.

Eman says

Solar was not a viable option while he drives an X

Then that $10k installed generator will not be viable for that X either. Both solar and that price generator would be around 25kW.

HeadSet says

Eman says

Solar was not a viable option while he drives an X

Then that $10k installed generator will not be viable for that X either. Both solar and that price generator would be around 25kW.

It’s adequate based on what he told me. He tested it and ran all appliances at the same time in his house to be sure, and it worked.

Based on my tracking, Tesla draws about 9.6 kW/hour on a 50A circuit breaker so it should work just fine. Owner also has the option to reduce it down to 40A, or 30A, or even less if desired.

socal2 says

Eman says

Good choice. It’s getting raving reviews. The hope for the refreshed Y is this summer, or later this year at the latest.

I hope you are right. They have to be cagey about announcing so they don't "Osbourne" current Model Y orders.

I think it has already osbourned some. I know people who are waiting on 1) the tax credit of the refreshed Model 3 to kick in, and 2) the refreshed Y.

The low hanging fruits would be to use US made batteries/minerals and get the 3 to qualify for the $7.5k tax credit. This will boost sales bigly. And when the refreshed Y comes in the 2nd half of this year, it will 🚀.

Just my 2 cents.

Eman says

Based on my tracking, Tesla draws about 9.6 kW/hour on a 50A circuit breaker so it should work just fine. Owner also has the option to reduce it down to 40A, or 30A, or even less if desired.

What does a 50A breaker run you? 50' and maybe 100'? You do know the gauge of wire needed? You're already in a $20-50k overpriced car. Where are the savings? The electric alone will be $5-10k. You think you're gonna pay $50k in gas in 5 years? Nope.

Enjoy the drive. I don't dislike you for that. Just be realistic it is not cheaper or green. It's not. Kind of by a long shot. Again, it's coming, the tax hit. Gas tankers are maybe 1-2% of large vehicles. Regular cars cause more issues overall because of frequency. 30 cars versus 1semi cause more damage to roads. The day of reckoning is coming my friend. I don't want to see Tesla fail, but the day of reckoning is coming. Shit grid. Rare earth minerals run out. You're taxed out the ass. No one will buy them.

Hybrids can plug into a 20A regular circuit and get 60-90 miles. Still fuel up if needed. I don't get the disconnect here with you Eman and Socal. It doesn't make any sense. I can get a used car for $20k less that's bigger with more utility. My gas alone would be cheaper than the electric bill and that's assuming it is zero. You pay more for the car. That has to be factored in. Then pay for solar panels? lol. This is backwards logic. You're $100k deep in a car not saving you money. It's math.

WookieMan says

I don't get the disconnect here with you Eman and Socal.

For me - my Tesla Model Y was the cheapest luxury sports car I could afford. It is faster and more practical than a Porsche. Sure I could save some money and drive a Nissan or Toyota sedan, but what's the point of making a decent salary if I can't ENJOY some toys?

I LOVE driving my Tesla and can't stand driving ICE cars with primitive friction brakes grinding out, jerky transmissions, low torque, no all wheel drive and no cool features like auto-pilot and world class audio/visual system. Wife and I were enjoying Arrested Development on Netflix in my car this weekend while waiting on our son to finish practice.

I have been driving new cars for 25 years and am very aware of what my monthly cost of operation is - and I can confidently tell you that driving a Tesla is cheaper than driving other equivalent luxury cars. Maybe California changes all the tax structures to put EV's out of business down the road (doubtful) - but I have had an absolute blast the last 6 years driving EV's and saving money. I am currently ahead of the game.

The disconnect as I see it is, the original discussion started by Wookie toward EV owners is that EVs are neither cost effective, convenient nor environmentally friendly. He got plenty of pushback. I think all those are generally accepted in this group as well as acknowledging they're 1. A toy for the well healed and 2. Limited use cases.

GNL says

I think all those are generally accepted in this group as well as acknowledging they're 1. A toy for the well healed and 2. Limited use cases.

That was the case a few years ago. Elon always said he wanted to start with making high-end expensive cars with high margin then move onto more affordable cars as they ramp up production and perfect manufacturing.

The Model Y was the best selling car in all of the world last year. There must be alot of well healed people on the planet.

Also, the average Tesla exceeds the needs over over 90% of the US market based on their daily driving needs. Tesla's supercharger network is 2nd to none (getting better every day) which allows for long hauls.

But if you are one of the 10% who can't charge at home and drives 300+ miles every day, an EV is not a good choice.

socal2 says

GNL says

I think all those are generally accepted in this group as well as acknowledging they're 1. A toy for the well healed and 2. Limited use cases.

That was the case a few years ago. Elon always said he wanted to start with making high-end expensive cars with high margin then move onto more affordable cars as they ramp up production and perfect manufacturing.

The Model Y was the best selling car in all of the world last year. There must be alot of well healed people on the planet.

Also, the average Tesla exceeds the needs over over 90% of the US market based on their daily driving needs. Tesla's supercharger network is 2nd to none (getting better every day) which allows for long hauls.

But if you are one of the 10% who can't charge at home and drives 300+ miles every day, an EV is not a good choice.

You are conveintly leaving out the weight of these vehicles and the charging time on your way home from work.

I admit that IF Tesla did sell more cars than any other manufacturer, that is impressive. You say that is a lot of "well healed" people. What is the number of cars sold that were under $50G?

GNL says

You are conveintly leaving out the weight of these vehicles and the charging time on your way home from work.

For the majority of EV owners who charge at their homes at night - charging isn't even a second thought. I drive about 15,000 miles a year and only charge in my garage 1 or 2 times a week. Couldn't be easier.

GNL says

I admit that IF Tesla did sell more cars than any other manufacturer, that is impressive. You say that is a lot of "well healed" people. What is the number of cars sold that were under $50G?

It's true. Not just best selling EV or best selling luxury car, best selling car........period in 2023. Tesla did all of this despite no advertising and lots of Liberals and Conservatives hating on Elon.

I have yet to meet a Tesla driver/owner that plans on going back to ICE cars after enjoying the thrill and benefits of driving a GOOD EV.
https://driving.ca/auto-news/industry/teslas-model-y-world-best-selling-vehicle-2023

socal2 says

Tesla did all of this despite no advertising and lots of Liberals and Conservatives hating on Elon.

They've been advertising. I'm not sure how you haven't noticed. Heavy on Youtube. Likely an algorithm but they for sure have been. I've seen at least a couple ads a day.

I don't hate Musk or the cars. Just don't tout them as being green, cheaper than similar sized ICE cars that are half the cost. Takes 5 years to make up the cost of gas at least. Admit you've sat at charging stations for 30-45 minutes. I guess be honest about the car and its flaws. Price, inflated savings numbers, charging time, etc.

The actual driving experience didn't really move me. I don't need acceleration. I need utility and there's no Tesla that provides that from what I can get out of my current car. The charging stations are not set up for a Cyber Truck, so you're fucked at most stations if towing. People have been having to disconnect a trailer to charge. There goes 10 minutes before even getting it hooked up. I don't have time for that shit. I guess some people do.

WookieMan says

The charging stations are not set up for a Cyber Truck, so you're fucked at most stations if towing. People have been having to disconnect a trailer to charge.

Bwahaha, the hits just keep on coming. That is sad...so sad. On top of all that, the truck is fugly.

Heard people have been renting the Cybertruck for $400-$800/day with 2-3 days minimum. They’re not kidding.



https://turo.com/us/en/truck-rental/united-states/san-francisco-ca/tesla/cybertruck-awd/2521513?endDate=02%2F25%2F2024&endTime=10%3A00&startDate=02%2F22%2F2024&startTime=10%3A00

Looks like someone is having fun with their Cybertruck.



https://x.com/sawyermerritt/status/1760042563799589319?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

I share the sentiment. Love Tesla mobile service. These techs are so good at what they do. $20 tip each time for about 15-30 minutes of work.



https://x.com/mahkusg/status/1759985230566568155?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

🤔



https://x.com/wholemarsblog/status/1759762232081338568?s=46&t=5lEEPaezr6Ic-W4Z6huZ5Q

Eman says

Looks like someone is having fun with their Cybertruck.

Apparently there is a "boat mode" where the battery can seal itself to protect it from water.

Won't be long before people will be rigging up outboard boat motors using the 220 outlet for power.

socal2 says

Eman says

Looks like someone is having fun with their Cybertruck.

Apparently there is a "boat mode" where the battery can seal itself to protect it from water.

Won't be long before people will be rigging up outboard boat motors using the 220 outlet for power.

I didn’t know that. It has 110V and 220V outlets in the trunk bed. Are these water tight?

Don’t have $30k to burn on a Foundation Series so I’ll wait. 😅