patrick.net

I do this to my kid... I do that to my kid... to raise them proper. Ok, good for you. But, when I hear complaints about my kids being frustrated by the behavior of other kids. I have to ask, what are you doing to solve the problem of the other kids behavior. If the answer is, nothing because they are not my kids, then stop the whining.

A couple years ago I was a a friend's place in his complex's recreation room (not a gym). There was a Christmas tree and we were there enjoying ourselves in part of the room. About 5 of the complex neighborhood kids came in being noisy. These were not my kids, but I still told them to quiet down a couple of times. They would quiet down for a while then become noisy again and they began rough housing. One of the little boys about 8ish hit one of the little girls about the same age and this caused one to the ornaments on the Christmas tree to break. I told them all to go home and, if they would not go home, I'd call the manager to take them home. One of the kids (the one that hit the little girl) threatened to tell his father on me. I told him that I would walk him home to talk to his father. He did not take me up on that offer. About 30 minutes later, his father walks in steaming mad at me. He began telling me that I do not tell his son what to do.

I raised my voice to him telling him that he was responsible for the damage his son caused and I'd be more than happy to call the manager to clean up his son's mess. I also told him that I didn't know how he was raising his son, but when I was growing up, my father would have tanned my hide for hitting a little girl. I asked him if his dad taught him the same thing. He admitted he did not realize that his son hit a girl. He walked out nearly dragging his son behind him. Don't know what happened to the kid after that.

Point of this little story, I don't whine about how other kids act. If I see something that should not be happening I have no fear of stepping in and opening (what some people say) is my big mouth.

Good job of horn blowing, but all your point did was prove mine.

When you(or me) send a kid to school having tought them right from wrong and they get to see idiot kids not be held to the acceptable standard for behavior, our kids pick-up on it and expess it as anything from "that's not fair, so-n-so gets to XYZ and nobody else does" to "I dont like so-n-so, they always XYZ and the teacher don't make them stop. Since I aint sitting in the class room or standing on the playground, I cant very well pick on the little kids as you so proudly did.

The only point of your story was that you enjoy empty bravado for "standing up" to roudy 8 year olds. I bow to you - you badass.

I'd call it active involvement in solving problems rather than sniveling about the problems. Hardly standing up to kids or anyone else. More like standing up for principles. And, was able to accoplish it without a threat of corporal punishment.

But, if it is pity you want, ok. Poor Bap he can't sit in the classroom or stand on the playground to solve the problem that he wants to whine about. Let us weep for him. Give him a hug. Get him a beer for his tears.

But, wait...before we pity him any farther, let's ask:
1) Did Bap ask his child's school if he could volunteer to watch the playground?
2) Did Bap ask his child's school if he could volunteer to be a teacher's assistant in the classroom?
3) Does Bap attempt to do anything else to solve his problem, i.e. become a leader of the PTA or even just attend?

Given the fact that I have worked with several school districts (it was 5 years ago before I switched jobs), I know that most schools have volunteer programs. Even if Bap's school does not, a little less whining and a little more gumption and perhaps he could start a volunteer group for the school.

But hey, whining and complaining are rights protected by the Constitution.

go get 'em you badass. I think that one even has some candy you can bully from 'em.

by the way, badass, you did threaten corpral punishment upon the kid (when you marched him to his not-as-good-as-you daddy, and you also imply physical harm to the daddy at the hands of your badass) ... go get em tuff guy.

simchaland says

Bap, any answer to my question and my telling of how I was raised? Is that any different from what you are trying to achieve?

your post started out saying your mom was liberal, and then you described an ultra-conservative upbringing. My best guess is you mistook a kind heart for liberalism ... or you just made up the whole thing. Either one?

All I am trying to achieve is to give my kids all of the tools I can to give them a good solid foundation for life. And, in my opinion, raising kids is a hard job. Also, in my opinion, subsidizing the expansion of the lowest common denominator of society has resulted in very poor results. Lazy people are crappy parents.

Ryan says

I raised my voice to him telling him that he was responsible for the damage his son caused and I’d be more than happy to call the manager to clean up his son’s mess.

lol ... "I raised my voice and threatened to call the manager" ... ooooh ... wow.

Pity party for Bap. Can anyone take care of his problems for him?

An antonym of gumption is lazy. What was that, Bap, about lazy people?

Bap, your kids will not do better as a result of your proper upbringing. They will be victimized and will generally find it difficult to operate in a system that rewards sneaky lying behavior.

Nomo, you're a disingenuos fable teller. While I can not prove that I have never taken a hand-out, you can not prove I have. And the reverse is true. As a matter of fact, I can not prove that I am anybody that has done anything, and you can't either -- but you will never stop attacking. In other words, a perfect liberal. kudos to you.

.... how my posts ignite you to attack me is really funny. So lib, and so predictable. Cheers.

I can almost imagine DocNomo all hunched over, typing really hard on each key to prove his point !! lmao. "What a maroooon" (in the voice of Bugs Bunny).

What was the topic again?

Merry Christmas folks.

Nomo,
you've been (im)properly spanked and put to bed without supper. NO BOX OF CHOCOLATES FOR YOU!

tee hee hee - I love it when I'm clever!

Bap33 says

While I can not prove that I have never taken a hand-out, you can not prove I have.

You forego the $1000 per child tax credit? Thought not, leech.

you miss the point my dear Troy. Proof. lmao. I think it is more than that too.

on that child credit thingy ... if a person put $X into the IRS's strong-hold over a years time, and through the tax filing system is returned $X it is a hand-out in my opinion. That earned income child credit thingy is just hidden welfare in many cases .. in my opinion.

What's the topic again?

@ellie,
are you suggesting my spellling and grammar may have issues? lol. Merry Christmas ellie.

Nomograph says

Most parents teach their children the value education, hard work, and personal responsibility.

DocNomo ... are these values your personal top three and are they listed in order?

E-man says

Don’t call people name like that. I sincerely expect you to be better than this.

George Bush hands him $1000 /yr just for sprogging, increasing the national debt by over a million dollars (through the magic of compounding) by the end of the century.

Bap didn't do anything worthwhile to merit that tax credit, yet he took the government handout anyway. What a leech :)

Nomograph says

Ryan says

1) Did Bap ask his child’s school if he could volunteer to watch the playground?
2) Did Bap ask his child’s school if he could volunteer to be a teacher’s assistant in the classroom?
3) Does Bap attempt to do anything else to solve his problem, i.e. become a leader of the PTA or even just attend?

That would cut into Bap’s AM talk radio time.
Don’t forget, Bap33 is on welfare. He didn’t follow his own advice and figure out how to provide for his family before he started “breeding”. Now you and I have to pay to raise his litter, and just look at the thanks we get. It’s a sure bet that Bap33’s mother and/or father were also on welfare. Most likely his children will end up on welfare unless he starts providing for himself, stops blaming other people for his problems, and teaches his children to do the same.

Not to mention he is taking out a FHA loan to recoup the 8K tax credit that conservatives so love.

Troy says

Bap33 says

While I can not prove that I have never taken a hand-out, you can not prove I have.

You forego the $1000 per child tax credit? Thought not, leech.

How about that 8K tax credit you chose to receive.

trying, but as of yet, no success.

Bap33 says

Nomo, you’re a disingenuos fable teller. While I can not prove that I have never taken a hand-out, you can not prove I have. And the reverse is true. As a matter of fact, I can not prove that I am anybody that has done anything, and you can’t either — but you will never stop attacking. In other words, a perfect liberal. kudos to you.

Bap33 says

@ellie,
are you suggesting my spellling and grammar may have issues? lol. Merry Christmas ellie.

Bap, I'm not suggesting that your spelling & grammar may have issues. I'm flat out saying it. You often use language that reverses the meaning of your message to make you sound - gasp! - liberal. lol, I enjoy it, and I'm sure that I'm not the only one to do so. An example:

Bap33 says

…. how my posts ignite you to attack me is really funny. So lib, and so predictable. Cheers.

Ignite: To set on fire; kindle. Chemistry, to heat intensely, roast.
Incite: To stir; encourage, or urge on; stimulate or prompt to action: to incite a crowd to riot.

Your comments after your misuse of the word "ignite," instead of fulfilling your mission of appearing condescending and propping your ego 'cause you're smarter than a doctor, actually gives one the impression that you lack education and/or intelligence.

Joke's on you. Merry Christmas.

ok ... jokes on me .... I meant ignite ... as in "light a fire under ones butt and makes them jump up in a flash". Thanks for your support. lol I know my writing sux. I know, my writing sux. I know my writing, sux.

Bap33 says

ok … jokes on me …. I meant ignite … as in “light a fire under ones butt and makes them jump up in a flash”.

Bap - I don't doubt that your posts invite a response, as evidenced by the responses to your posts. But you might be flattering yourself if you believe that you light a fire under Nomo's butt, or make him jump in a flash.

A response written in a laid-back manner doesn't lend itself to the urgency you're intimating. I don't know Nomo, but believe that he has the ability to decide when something is worth jumping up in a flash. He (and various others) exploit your lack of command of the language as they make fun of you. It's funny, and clever.

So, I thank you and several other posters on this forum for the untold hours of amusement you've given - and look forward to many more. Merry Christmas.

Elliemae

RE: the child credit. I like to think that my government pays me to have sex;O)

Bap33 says

simchaland says

Bap, any answer to my question and my telling of how I was raised? Is that any different from what you are trying to achieve?

your post started out saying your mom was liberal, and then you described an ultra-conservative upbringing. My best guess is you mistook a kind heart for liberalism … or you just made up the whole thing. Either one?
All I am trying to achieve is to give my kids all of the tools I can to give them a good solid foundation for life. And, in my opinion, raising kids is a hard job. Also, in my opinion, subsidizing the expansion of the lowest common denominator of society has resulted in very poor results. Lazy people are crappy parents.

Um nope, I really mean my Mom was and IS a LIBERAL. She's very liberal. And I made nothing up. That was my upbringing. Child rearing according to political ideology is stupid. Most parents of any political orientation will use discipline. My whole point is that you and other conservatives seem to think that only you hold certain ideals dear. And my point is that we have some ideals in common. You neglect to take a look at the true definition of the political word "liberal." Liberals are free thinkers. My parents were free thinkers who voted for whomever they thought would get the job done well. We worked on campaigns. Trust me, we didn't work on conservative campaigns. My upbringing wasn't exactly "conservative" in a political sense. Liberals have traditions and ideals we like to uphold too. And we share many of the same ideals as conservatives claim to hold.

So, why is it that you think that only conservatives have ideals?

Something tells me that you are fighting a "straw man" liberal that exists only in your imagination. We liberals love our children and want the best for them. And we even believe in discipline. However, we don't all hold the same ideals because we are free thinkers. We can be liberal and pick and chose from many traditions. We liberals aren't "boxed in" like it seems conservatives are.

So, again answer the question that I really asked, why is it that you think that only conservatives have ideals?

Just wanted to ask if anyone else is having trouble viewing the forums with Google Chrome?

What kind of trouble? Could you send me a screenshot?

Please email me about problems with the forum: p@patrick.net

Hey Patrick, When do u think the interest rates will raise to 10+ percent so prices on homes will be very cheap?

Also do u own many properties? and how did u start

I think interest rates will rise to 10+ percent when either the Federal Reserve Board all goes to prison, or when the Federal Reserve Board succeeds in destroying the dollar. Whichever comes first.

I don't own any property, but now that I track the rental rates vs price, I'm tempted to buy rental property in some bad neighborhoods. There are good deals there.

I think we'll see 2% mortgage rates before 10%.

10% would utterly destroy everything, including the wealth basis of people buying the bonds.

A real mexican standoff.

I think you're right that interest rates will probably be kept low to protect wealthy bond holders, esp. US Treasury Bond holders. Bond prices fall as interest rates rise.

But I disagree that high interest rates would destroy everything. I think low interest rates are already destroying everything by artificially inflating assets and preventing rational investment.

L.10 Assets and Liabilities of the Personal Sector (1)

Total financial assets
2004: $34.7T
1Q09: $37.1T

(+7%)

Total liabilities
2004: $14.7T
1Q09: $19.8T

(+34%)

The market has rallied since 1Q09 so assets are up ~20%

Bernanke needs inflation, but so did Japan.

We're finding, like them, that there's no clean way to back out years of massive and systemic misinvestment in land valuation and unneeded construction.

It's hard marking that $5.1T gain in liability to $0.

Japan's M1 was ~$1.5T when I was FOB there in 1993. Now it's $4.8T and wages and prices there are lower now than then.

We're not Japan in the specifics but the liquidity trap is the same AFAICT.

Patrick -

First of all I would like to start for thanking you for putting up this site...I have been following it since 2007 and it is awesome!! You seem to be very focused on Bay Area or CA in general because that is where you are....I am also orginally from the Bay but moved to VA in 2005. Can you please add some information on Loudoun County in VA. Where do you see the future of this county?

I don't know anything about Loudoun County. But I always say just look at the rent/price ratios.

If yearly rent is under 5% of purchase price, then prices are too high. Rents are determined by jobs. You can't borrow to pay rent. So rents are usually at market price.

That means the house price compared to rent tells you whether to walk away -- or whether to run away!

I had once read that the market is always right. Unlike you Pat, I was a licensed Real Estate Agent from 1981 to 1997. Mostly in the bare land sector some business opportunities and multi. unit. It was futile to argue value with sellers as neighbor's prices skyrocketed. The new logic was BUY at any price because it will be worth 20 % more next year ! Yippie Kia Yae !
If we become educated as to WHY real estate prices became detached from reality we would understand where the values will return to. This IS what happened !!! One day In 1973 each american family was given double the credit for the purpose of buying a home. The reason was never discussed because its chauvinistic. ( Women were not considered credit worthy prior to 1972 !!! ssshhhh!!! ). Home prices exploded till 1981 when real property prices fell nationwide by 17%. I know this well as a regular comment around the office was that real estate sales were profitable till I got in the business. In the meantime Woz and Jobs were introducing a gadget that created more profit than ANY other invention Since and even BEFORE the alleged big bang. Virtually everyone in the free world bought some for the house and some more for the business And they replaced each and paid about $1,500 for each one every other year from 1982 until Around 2002 when Charles Schwab was asked why they have not replaced their work stations this year. The response was they do not need to. Hardware sales hit a brick wall. Do a little math. The amount of money generated by hardware is only a portion of that era's cash flow. Consider peripherals, software, ink sales, remember the "DOT COM BUBBLE".
That orgasm of cash flow caused over exuberance when shopping for Real Property and actually caused multiple buyers to offer MORE than asking prices. They did not have google earth nor did their Selling agents (for some reason) disclose the fact that their is still plenty of land to go around.
Humans phenomenally pay a multiple of 2.5 times their annual income for a home. When they hit the lotto, bets are off. The Bay area's prices actually passed 8 times median income.
No one argues that 17% of the people who live in the Bay Area can afford to buy in the Bay Area. I am willing to wager that approximately 17% of the Bay Areas wage earning population is/was in the high paying Technology field.

Thank You Pat, Promote freedom of education.

I echo the first post about your 3% rental figure EVEN in the Bay Area. The calculation does not work out at all. I like most of what you say, but that is simply not an accurate calculation of the rental market. For example, I am renting in the Claremont Hills in Berkeley, CA. It is fair to say the home value is 550K to even 600K because of a likely bidding war due to desirable area, front yard, back yard, three car ports, and great view. There is no way I could rent this home for less than 2,000 which your formula concludes. $2,300 to $2,500 is the rental range of this home.

I've been collecting a TON of rent/buy data lately, and more than 40% of rentals in the Bay Area are returning less than 4% of their valuation (from Zillow, tax records, etc).

So maybe you rental is closer to break-even for the landlord, but very many are not, especially in more expensive neighborhoods.

select count(*) from caps where metro_area='sfbay' and cap_rate < 0.04;

20925

select count(*) from caps where metro_area='sfbay';

48322

This is from my Bargain Finder service: http://patrick.net/?cat=3

Hi Patrick,

One variable you have not addressed is the national debt and the probabilty the dollar will devalue an additional 90% within the next year. It has already devalued by some 40% in the past year. If a home was purchased today for $400,000 then conceivably it could be worth $4,000,000 in a year if the dollar drops as predicted.

Hello Patrick,

I was falling for the whole "housing market hit bottom" line from my realtor, and the different institutions that try to profit from real estate. I live in the Florida Miami-Dade County/ Broward County area. I was hoping to buy my first home in the Broward area. From what I understand... these areas are the worst in the list for overvalued homes, and where foreclosures are at their worst. The market value is set to fall here the most. I recently found a 2 bedroom / 2 bath 1047sq foot home built in 1976 in the Broward county area for $95,000 as a short sale. It has many renovations and a new roof from 2006. I have put in an offer but this process can take months. After reading so much information on statistics from your site I'm thinking about forgetting the whole home buying thing for now anyway.

I was hoping to get some insight into this. I rent now for $800 in a duplex in a decent area in Dade County. I split utilities with the homeowner and I always spend around $900-$1000 a month for everything.

If I purchased that home in Broward County for $95,000, I estimated my closing costs to be around $10,000. And because the taxes on that property have a homestead exemption, taxes would be around $1900 a year. Plus hazard insurance, flood insurance, along with my principle/ interest/ and PMI at around the 5.25% interest rate... my payments should be around $870 all together. Of course this is not counting utilities. I would be paying $70 more a month to have my own property as opposed to renting, which at one point seemed to be more of a security than it is now.
Should I back out now for the next couple of years and continue renting?

lillybee62002 says

If I purchased that home in Broward County for $95,000, I estimated my closing costs to be around $10,000. And because the taxes on that property have a homestead exemption, taxes would be around $1900 a year. Plus hazard insurance, flood insurance, along with my principle/ interest/ and PMI at around the 5.25% interest rate… my payments should be around $870 all together. Of course this is not counting utilities. I would be paying $70 more a month to have my own property as opposed to renting, which at one point seemed to be more of a security than it is now.
Should I back out now for the next couple of years and continue renting?

Personally I am of the opinion not to buy unless you plan to be there for at least 10 years. I work in the default services industry and have a glimpse of what is in the pipeline and it's pretty ugly. I bought this year (at about rental parity) but I plan to be where I bought for well over 10 years.

At that low of a cost of a property you probably won't get a tax savings as you would only pay about 5K in interest. You would be putting money to principal though. Assuming your there for 10 years you would still owe 77K on the property (30yr/5.25).

Will your rent still be around $800 in 2020?
Will your place be worth $77K in 2020?
Do you want to be there in 2020?

I wish I had answers to your questions. I'm not sure about them. What is your guess to what values might be like around that time in the area I was planning to buy in? I wish I had some kind of reliable information that can give a good indication of the condition of the market in 2, 5, 10 years.

That house that I’m thinking about purchasing… what do you think the values might be like in 3-5 years based on the information you see everyday?

lillybee62002 says

I wish I had answers to your questions. I’m not sure about them. What is your guess to what values might be like around that time in the area I was planning to buy in? I wish I had some kind of reliable information that can give a good indication of the condition of the market in 2, 5, 10 years.
That house that I’m thinking about purchasing… what do you think the values might be like in 3-5 years based on the information you see everyday?

I wish I had the answers too. Short term is pretty bleak.

I only know everything point to the pice dropping over the next couple years. One of our larger clients has a HUGE back-log of loans that are already delinquent that they need to figure out what to do with. The "Shadow Inventory" is real. In 2008, we were seeing 4000+ loans per week of just HELOC's that were >90 days late from one bank.

FWIW one company is taking the a current BPO value and cutting it by 20-45% (depending on state/zip) adding in closing, foreclosure costs, holding and reo costs when deciding what to do. For FL your looking in the 40% range and it taking 330 days or so to handle the whole process.

I would say if your looking to live there for only 5 years, rent.