patrick.net

The true economic impact of the shutdown has just begun to reveal itself. Initial estimates place loss to U.S. economy in the billions.

Now that the longest government shutdown in U.S. history is officially over (for the time being, at least) and the dust is beginning to settle, we’re getting our first look at the cost of the shutdown on the economy.

A new report from the Congressional Budget Office shows that the shutdown likely cost the country $11 billion in economic activity over the last month.

The CBO estimates that the country’s gross domestic product will likely be down by $3 billion for the fourth quarter of 2018 compared to what it would have been had the government not shut down at the end of the year.

But given that the government shut down towards the end of December, the greater impact will be felt in the first quarter of this year. According to the CBO, the level of real GDP is expected to be $8 billion lower in the first quarter than it would have been if the government was open for business.

A new report from S&P Global Ratings suggests a similar downturn in economic activity as a result of the shutdown. According to S&P, the U.S. economy lost at least $6 billion dollars because of the shutdown, which S&P notes is more than the $5.7 billion that the White House requested for the border wall that was the central cause of the shutdown itself.

“The longest partial shutdown in history, which started as a minor cold, began to feel like a nasty flu that had begun to spread across the states. And the overall cost is likely worse than what we had previously expected,” S&P said in its report.

And while the CBO notes that some of the lost economic activity will likely be regained in future quarters, both the CBO and S&P write that some of what was lost during the shutdown may never be recovered.

“Among those who experienced the largest and most direct negative effects are federal workers who faced delayed compensation and private-sector entities that lost business,” the CBO said. “Some of those private-sector entities will never recoup that lost income.”

S&P agrees, noting that some of the direct costs from the shutdown are unrecoverable.

“In particular, economic activity from lost productivity from furloughed government and contract employees won’t be recovered. The direct hit to economic activity from furloughed workers is amplified by lost spending by furloughed government and contract workers due to lack of ready income,” S&P notes. “Furloughed contract workers will not get back pay, so they are left trying to repair finances after losing five weeks of wages.”

The CBO also notes that there are some other consequences that will not likely be felt immediately, but will begin to show themselves in time.

“For example, some businesses could not obtain federal permits and certifications, and others faced reduced access to loans provided by the federal government. Such factors were probably beginning to lead firms to postpone investment and hiring decisions,” the CBO wrote.

“In addition, risks to the economy were becoming increasingly significant as the shutdown continued,” the CBO added. “Although their precise effects on economic output are uncertain, the negative effects of such factors would have become increasingly important if the partial shutdown had extended beyond five weeks.”

S&P also notes that the shutdown may have lasting consequences on the government employees and contractors who were basically turned into pawns in what turned out to be a pointless political standoff.

“We did not consider the effect on morale of government workers who were required to work without pay. Even if they decided to show up to work (some, reportedly, have called in sick), we suspect that working in those conditions has lowered productivity rates for them as well,” S&P said.

“It may also create a challenge for government agencies and contractors, when they want to hire them back,” S&P continued. “With worries that Uncle Sam may leave them in the lurch, with bills to pay, the next time the government decides to close (which is all too frequent), these workers may decide to opt for a job in another industry that they feel has more job security.”

And with another potential shutdown looming in just a few weeks, those negative effects could come sooner rather than later.

“Although this shutdown has ended, little agreement on Capitol Hill will likely weigh on business confidence and financial market sentiments. For those workers who were living without a paycheck, revolving credit payments and credit scores may also take a hit,” S&P said. “Although this funding battle has ended, the next one starts in a few weeks, which may reduce growth expectations if businesses and financial markets begin to expect that Congress and the president will repeat the experience again and again.”

https://www.housingwire.com/articles/48023-the-true-economic-impact-of-the-shutdown-has-just-begun-to-reveal-itself

Of course, it does not matter that the same people (who now get hit by lower returns) got more money in paychecks due to tax cuts.
It would be extremely nice if "journalists" would not suffer from terminal TDS and would actually try to be objective. But I understand, ORANGE MAN BAD, WHATEVER HE DOES IS HORRIBLE.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Sure, the plan was 'make the rubes feel rich by throwing them pennies in the weekly pay packet' so they only experience the rape of transfer from their pathetic incomes for bonuses for billionaires once when the refund is crushed.

That is true, but the article should be titled "Plebes get $1 handout while Masters of Universe keep all their loot" instead of "Why millions of people are getting hit with a surprise tax bill this year". No one gets hit by a surprise tax bill if they know how to use a calculator. Besides, owners of the media likely belong to the Masters of Universe class of better people, so do not expect any honesty there - just TDS based on emotions.

d6rB says

No one gets hit by a surprise tax bill if they know how to use a calculator.

Trust me, it's only those who pay quarterly withholdings, who are not surprised. The average Joe simply waits till Feb to start making those calculations.

I bought a 12 X 20 Tuff Shed for my backyard with my Tax refund. That's on top of getting an extra $120 every biweekly paycheck.

The Shed will be great, insulated electric outlets customized windows and doors. I'm moving my Man Cave/Office/Studio out there. The family is growing and we need my room inside the house.

Thanks Donald Trump! Good looking out!

So I kept more of my money during the entire year, more in aggregate than I supposedly "lost" in my "return"?

K.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

THAT WARM FEELING IN YOUR SNEAKERS IS THE BLOOD GUSHING OUT OF YOUR ASSHOLES!, AMERICA!

Still is half the tax we’d pay in Canada.
Sucks for you!

I wasn't able to itemize this year as the standard deduction was higher than in the past. I had adjusted my deductions because last year I got like $2,000 back, and I always aim to owe a little. Not cool with interest free loans to the IRS. Ended up owing $500 this year.

People will pay what they think is fair for the service they’re being provided.
Want to tax more? Sell the public on all the cool stuff they’ll get for the money!

NuttBoxer says

ot cool with interest free loans to the IRS.

Nobody is, but the alternative is often interest and penalties. At least with the state of Maryland, you don't get hit with them if your payments meet or exceed your last years liability. With the feds it's a fuck you if you don't do some sort of calculation to get it close enough.

I've never been penalized, and this year especially there is no way to justify it given how much things have changed. Best I ever did was owing $88.

I just did the math I got about 1K less back this year, but get to keep 2472 extra every year.
According to 2018's taxes.

Between the tax break and 3% yoy raises I'm making $7892 more this year. Than I was when Obama was President and Trump was running promising I would make more money. The wages were stagnant and going backwards under Obama.

Thanks again TRUMP!

Organized religion is like organized crime.
If a person needs to pray to a deity of his choice, why can't he do it in privacy of his home, without feeding tons of scammers who pray on his money? Kids will not be molested AND more money for family. A win-win!

Cats are aliens, this just proves how they traveled to our planet. Think of what other advanced techs they have.

Haha he don’t give a fuck! Now Democrats are going to have to be in the position of either defending their colleague despite her horrible behavior, or agreeing with ORANGEMANBAD!!!!

Classic Trump!

Yep it’s a power move! Get all Senators to put up or shut up, go on record as either supporting a totally idiotic measure or rejecting the leftmost part of their party.
Heads I win, tails you lose!

Wonder how many "NV" we will see....

And enough Reps should just vote/abstain for it so it would pass and go to the House, thus dumping that very same problem on Pelosi's lap!

No need. That fact that the Senate is voting on it brings up the issue of why Nancy will not bring it up for a vote in the House.

I love Mcconnell, Trump showed him how to have a spine, I like that.

That being said, Dem senators know they can't commit career suicide, so I see a lot of "abstain" votes.

Mitch will hand out some Cookies and Cream and Sour Diesel joints so everyone can get on the same level as Occasional-Cortex in order to review the bill.

Yet another great thing The President has done. Giving Republican Senators and Congress members their balls, enabling them to stand up and vote their conscience. First Lindsey Graham goes full on outraged during the Gorsuch hearings, in the face of a very corrupt and unfriendly media and now McConnell goes level 3 on the Dems.

Outstanding. Good job Senator McConnell.

The Republicans have finally figured out the New Liberal Game.
They are going to start preempting the Liberals by taking every decision Trump makes to the 5th Circuit Court as Unconstitutional to have them Rule that it is.
The next court after that would be the Supreme Court. But the 9th Circuit Jackoffs will never get to Legislate Socialist Activism from their bench ever again.
They aren't going to give them the chance any more.

Since this is out of character for McConnell, maybe something else is afoot. Maybe Nancy convinced McConnell to bring it up in the Senate where it will of course fail. Then Nancy can say "No use bringing it up in the House, Senate already nixed it."

Mueller's motto: "Don't do the crime if you can't do the time!" ?

Let me fix that for you: "Show me the man, and I will show you the crime."

Arrrrgggghhh President Trump!!!! You promised we would win so much that I’d get tired of it!

Not true. I’m an addict to winning! PLEASE DONT STOP WINNING!!!!!

When the lights go out, LA's gonna look like a Balkan Mad Max.

She needs to sexually molest an aide to change the subject to something she can get away with as a Democrat.

Somehow, Kaki will find a way to blame that on Trump.

Omar collaborates with Nation of Islam, who are well-known anti-Semites, but it is TRUMP! who is a XENOPHOBE! FACTS AND ACTIONS DO NOT MATTER.

What did Ilhan Omar do exactly? If she only claimed that AIPAC pays off Congressmen to support Israel no matter what, well, that is pretty much what they do as I understand it.

Now if she would only point out how the Saudis also use their money the same way.

Sure, but that's a different issue.

Reality check: Trump continues pushing false claims at El Paso rally

President Trump made a number of false claims Monday night during his rally in El Paso as he lobbied for building a southern border wall — including a claim that the arena the rally was held in could fit 8,000 people and that the El Paso Fire Department allowed him to let in 10,000.

Reality check: The fire department said the arena is actually capable of holding even fewer people than that — about 6,500 — and that they did not give Trump permission to admit people beyond the capacity, per El Paso Times. Trump also underestimated the size of Beto O’Rourke’s competing rally, claiming there were between 15 and 300 people. Estimates suggest O'Rourke had between 7,000 and 15,000 people in attendance.

On the wall: Trump said the government has already “built a lot of” the wall. While Congress last year approved an additional 14 miles of extended barrier, there has not been a single mile of wall built since Trump assumed the presidency, the AP reports.

•Trump claimed a border wall would prevent drugs from coming into the U.S. But the Drug Enforcement Administration determined in 2018 that the majority of drugs coming through the border arrive through official ports of entry.

On immigration and crime: Trump falsely claimed, as he has several times before, that a border wall helped decrease crime in El Paso. In fact, El Paso’s violent crime rate was the second-lowest among similarly sized cities before the wall was built, and the city maintained second place after the wall was erected, the New York Times reports.

•Trump claimed that about 2% of unauthorized immigrants who are arrested return for their court hearings. The actual number is closer to 72%, according to Justice Department data.

On oil and natural gas: Trump falsely claimed the U.S. is “now the number one producer of oil and natural gas,” when in fact the U.S. has been the world's most dominant since 2013, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration.

On the Green New Deal: Trump falsely claimed the Democrats’ Green New Deal will ban Americans from owning cows and “shut down American energy” and “air travel.” The plan calls for a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, but does not ban cows or air travel, per the AP.

On experimental drugs: Trump claimed patients couldn’t use experimental drugs while terminally ill before he signed the “Right to Try” law. However, another similar federal program had already been in place, according the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.

https://www.axios.com/trump-fact-check-el-paso-rally-b6cd4c17-1529-4de0-9ce1-251de1567ca6.html

LOL he has a Civil War History book in his Office and the Corry Booker's of Shit Bag Politics run with the Elgatouno Retarded bent on Reality.

Hey sorry no tickey, Virginia is still full of KKK Blackface assholes. And wife beaters, they will be forced to step down and the Republican will replace them all.


LOL feel that Sting? That's Pride Fucking with you....

Left is already burning books. Who needs education when they got welfare.

"Nevermind our two guys in blackface and our sexual assault, this Republican had an old Confederate History book in his Office!"

Where?
Not in California. Out here you'll get lynched for wearing a red hat!

Is this one of those important issues the Dems insist we focus on?

I'm more interested in why we have Two Blackface Dem Governors and an alleged Serial Sex Assaulter Lt. Gov in VA and NC.

I wear the hat, haven’t been lynched yet.

I think it’s keyboard warriors on social media who frighten people, not in real life though. I’m not in SF, so don’t know how it’s out there.

Onvacation says

Where?
Not in California. Out here you'll get lynched for wearing a red hat!