patrick.net

https://www.dailycal.org/2022/01/03/as-bay-area-cities-see-minimum-wage-increases-some-push-for-more/?source=patrick.net
I see often entry level workers ~$20 + benefits + bonus.

In spite of that you will see stores shut early for lack of staff.
It is hard to see how the inflation will subside in near term with democrat policies of lot of free money too.
House prices will continue to remain high if not skyrocket.

It’s been done before in the 1970-82 curve. 400% inflation in those twelve years and the government debt was pretty much managed. It went from “a real problem” to economists moaning that it wasn’t enough debt to provide liquidity for the markets!
The heroes of that time period weren’t at the Federal Reserve raising interest rates to the moon. The heroes were unsung CIA and deep state agencies which ensured that the inflation would continue until it was no longer needed. And they used the hell outta old Jimmy Carter to get that done. Look at the parallels from Carter to Biden and you’ll see that they’ve chosen another clueless moron with even more disposability for this tasteless job.

Inflation helps debtors, who pay back debt with money which is worth less than it was when it was borrowed.

An IOU or a bond doesn’t have “$1000, adjusted for inflation” printed on it.

I think you need a concrete interest rate vs inflation rate to attempt to answer this.

Also I do think they can run inflation a bit higher without needing to raise rates just by announcing the new target inflation rate is say 4%, allowing them to reap the benefits of inflation on their debts, without having to pay more to borrow.

I wonder how many costs are like SS, where they pay monthly a fixed price, but dont have the payments indexed to inflation. So at best, those payments might go up 1-2% a yr, or maybe none at all. High inflation would be a way for them to save on those entitlements. For example, pensions, or disability for veterans etc...

Is strong $ good or bad for US?
Pro
1) More purchasing power
Cons:
1) More outsourcing.

Inflation allows the government to spend unlimited amounts of money. It's a tax on labor that is hidden.

People who get the new money first, have the greatest amount of spending power with that money as well.

So, it's great for the people the control the government, and awful for the people under the government.

San Ramon + SB9 Lot split = $$$$

I was a big housing bull 10 years ago and I was crapped on. Thesis was Fed zero interest rates as far as the eye can see. I ended up buying a house and riding the wave. I like my house so I'm not selling and I'll probably see my paper wealth take a ding, my next prediction....

Once mortgage rates hit 5% things will slow, once they hit 6% houses will depreciate and once the word is out that rates are going a lot higher, we'll see a reversion to the mean.

Inventory is still low, but that can change in a hurry.

Ceffer says

Patrick is retired young and has the scratch to buy a home elsewhere if desired. Patrick's rent strategy is hyper-rational whereas home ownership is largely irrational, since you never own the pile anyway, you just rent it from the tax and insurance terrorists in perpetuity, even if you have paid off the vig.

It depends on what you buy and when. I paid $160 for the house I bought after the crash . I don't think a house like mine should be worth a penny over $250K(that's even too high) but now Zillow says it's pushing almost $500K. Patrick, like any sane minded person, says you would be stupid to put down $500K on that deal. Or $275 for that matter.

Patrick's message is, "Just because everybody else is doing it, doesn't meat it's a good idea."

Dholliday126 says

I was a big housing bull 10 years ago and I was crapped on. Thesis was Fed zero interest rates as far as the eye can see. I ended up buying a house and riding the wave. I like my house so I'm not selling and I'll probably see my paper wealth take a ding, my next prediction....

Once mortgage rates hit 5% things will slow, once they hit 6% houses will depreciate and once the word is out that rates are going a lot higher, we'll see a reversion to the mean.

Inventory is still low, but that can change in a hurry.

Interest rates won’t move past 5%.
They can’t. The national budget won’t allow for it given our enormous debt. And anyway the whole POINT of what the WEF folks have done so far is to drive inflation into hyper inflation territory and keep it there until the debt problem is resolved.

Shaman says

Interest rates won’t move past 5%.
They can’t. The national budget won’t allow for it given our enormous debt.

Maybe that's what TPTB want. The Fed is talking tougher than I've seen since Volcker.

Dholliday126 says

I like my house so I'm not selling and I'll probably see my paper wealth take a ding,

There's more to consider than appreciation or depreciation, when you have a house, you plan on living in and it's not an investment.
On one hand it's always nice to see your wealth increase on paper(it's not wroth a dime until you sell it), still it's nice to see your tax bill or insurance bill subside with the depreciation. Or at least it should. For me the biggest concern for depreciation is the lack in pride of ownership as people abandon, or rent houses out that are depreciating. They don't keep them up like houses that appreciates, they constantly polish those like a jewel. Unfortunately sometimes depreciation = blight.


I don't know if I can give advice to some of you millionaires here at Patnet with my frugalness or middle class view on Real Estate and the value there of.
I mean I dare not to give anyone advice mulling over a 2 million dollar purchase. The thought of which boggles my mind, of all of the things I would love to spend 2 million dollars on, real estate would not be one of them. At least not my residence house, I could see commercial investing or a huge farm or ranch.

Tenpoundbass says

I don't know if I can give advice to some of you millionaires here at Patnet with my frugalness or middle class view on Real Estate and the value there of.
I mean I dare not to give anyone advice mulling over a 2 million dollar purchase. The thought of which boggles my mind, of all of the things I would love to spend 2 million dollars on, real estate would not be one of them. At least not my residence house, I could see commercial investing or a huge farm or ranch.

Unfortunately the reality of bay area is that lot of printed money get funneled into our area. It is hard to follow @patrick advise as "Housing" is not free market, But a manipulated one with lot of not only printed but bribe money from Asia chasing.
$3M+ houses are common and they were $1.5M pre-bubble and $1M post last bubble.
I am not convinced that rental prices won't increase double digit next few year.. You can agree/disagree on real estate investment.. But one House you must have to protect against Govt schemes to increase house prices.
I came to view slowly as I age that we can't win against house... It is a self torturing exercise at best.

richwicks says

Inflation allows the government to spend unlimited amounts of money. It's a tax on labor that is hidden.

People who get the new money first, have the greatest amount of spending power with that money as well.

So, it's great for the people the control the government, and awful for the people under the government.

I am not sure what the end game of our masters is...?

Tenpoundbass says

It depends on what you buy and when.

And how much you spend relative to renting the same type of thing. That's my message.

Use a rent-vs-buy calculator and do the math. And for God's sake never believe a realtor about anything, or ask a barber if you need a haircut.

The NY Times, slimy as they are, does have a very good rent-vs-buy calculator:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?source=patrick.net

Patrick says

And how much you spend relative to renting the same type of thing. That's my message.

Use a rent-vs-buy calculator and do the math. And for God's sake never believe a realtor about anything, or ask a barber if you need a haircut.

The NY Times, slimy as they are, does have a very good rent-vs-buy calculator:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2014/upshot/buy-rent-calculator.html?source=patrick.net

It works well in ideal and true capitalist world.
Housing is socialist cesspool in USA.. From artificial supply constraints to govt backed loans, It is made ripe for "price increase" like healthcare and education.

We at Patnet talk like housing is a free market.

It’s not, the game is rigged keeping prices going up up up.

BayArea says

We at Patnet talk like housing is a free market.

It’s not, the game is rigged keeping prices going up up up.

It is true, As much as I want it to be "free market", It is not.
The rigging side of equation have powerful interests.

Once "Blackrock" and other big players take hold of large chunk of market, They will push NIMBYism to high gear to create more wealth for themselves.
In a rigged system, You should try to become self sufficient.. Solar, small chunk of agriculture land and house. Above all try to be healthy and hope God keeps you you healthy.
https://slate.com/business/2021/06/blackrock-invitation-houses-investment-firms-real-estate.html?source=patrick.net

Govt can regress to Hindooo way, where even basic toilet is luxury.

/*******Land locked market like bay area will be prime target for these folks and they will raise rents*********/
Let’s focus on Invitation Homes, a $21 billion publicly traded company that was spun off from Blackstone, the world’s largest private equity company, in 2017. Invitation Homes operates in 16 cities, with the biggest concentration in Atlanta, where it owns 12,556 houses. (Though that’s not much compared with the 80,000 homes sold in Atlanta each year, Invitation Homes bought 90 percent of the homes for sale in some ZIP codes in Atlanta in the early 2010s.) While normal people typically pay a mortgage interest rate between 2 percent and 4 percent these days, Invitation Homes can borrow money for far less: It’s getting billion-dollar loans at interest rates around 1.4 percent. In practice, this means that Invitation Homes can afford to tack on an extra $5,000 to $20,000 to the purchase price of every home, while getting the house at the same actual cost as a typical homeowner. While Invitation Homes uses a mixture of debt and cash from renters to buy houses, its offers are almost always all cash, which is a big leg up in a competitive market.

https://wset.com/news/local/price-of-fertilizer-skyrockets-could-impact-what-you-pay-for-produce-inflation-costs-virginia-groceries?source=patrick.net
Price of fertilizer skyrockets, could impact what you pay for produce

Ammonia fertilizer prices have increased 210% from September 2020 to December 2021.
During that same period, potassium fertilizer went up 134%.

Bay area is not the only crazy one!

https://wolfstreet.com/2021/04/27/the-most-splendid-housing-bubbles-in-america-house-price-inflation-ignored-by-cpi-april-update/?source=patrick.net

Buyers are buying in panic in this market if you ask me.

FarmersWon says

Question for Economists: Is inflation Good or bad for Federal Goverment Debt?....adding.. Is strong $ good or bad for US?

Inflation is how governments with central banks pay for everything. Since they produce nothing of value, their only option is taxes and inflation, and taxes are really just a cover, as the percentage spent using inflation is MASSIVELY greater. Government debt is always preceded by inflation, it's a function of the system, so couching it as "good or bad?" makes no sense. Necessary would be the more appropriate term.

As to the second part, who is the US? If it's the government, refer to the above. If it's the citizenry, inflation is ALWAYS bad, and a strong currency, which we haven't had in over a hundred years, is vital. Not to our success as much as to our survival.

Anyone who talks about inflation being good for debt has never lived through hyperinflation, and has never read economic history. Wages cannot, and will not keep up with the price of basic goods people need to survive. Need an example, gas, in the US, today. If things continue you can add meat, bread, milk, eggs, produce, food. Yes, your mortgage will technically have less value. But you won't give a fuck, because you don't have enough money for food, so you can't afford the mortgage, or property taxes, or whatever the bill is that's not a about keeping you from starving.

So why do so many people put up with being robbed blind? In a word, greed. Silly as it might sound, most of us are so greedy, inflating the prices of things we own, makes us think we have somehow gained wealth. Notice I didn't say increasing value, I said inflating price.

One of the stupider things people of authority say is “out of an abundance of caution” which means roughly “I know what decision the facts and logic support but I’m going to ignore that because if I’m wrong I’m illogically scared of the consequences”

If you hear a government official say out of an abundance of caution, run.

Just say no 4WD, DCT's, and (for the most part) CVT's.

If the 2012 - Ford Focus had a regular automatic transmission I'd be driving one today. Actually there is a regular automatic transmission in the sedan, but I prefer hatchbacks.

Yeah, AMT is superior. My current car has a CVT and the author is right in that it feels soulless. It is smooth though.

Eman says

Buyers are buying in panic in this market if you ask me.

Agree 100%.

As much as I want a new pad, my gut says to watch and wait.

It's really simple, people who are smart in one area mistakenly assume they are proficient in other areas. That's why everyone thought they were an expert on viruses when most of them couldn't even tell you what RNA actually is.

Sounds like a new term for the baddies to use against anyone catching on to their evil. "My advancement from negative net worth to multi-millionaire in the last two years has nothing to do with my election to office. Amazing the apophenia out there." Also "Only an apopheniac would think the rise in youth heart attacks has anything to do with the vaxx."

What? People are struggling to survive in "neoliberal economy"? Puhleeeze! You can literally go from cradle to grave w/o ever holding a job and be fed, clothed and have your medical needs covered. In SF they will even buy you your favorite drugs and booze and deliver them to your luxurious hotel room.

It's MT or GTFO!

sounds about right

globalism is bad, it hasn’t benefited americans, only ultra rich

joshuatrio says

It is smooth though

Like the old Buick Dynaflows 1948-1963.

RWSGFY says

It's MT or GTFO!

I'd agree with this. But MT is becoming a rarity these days.

joshuatrio says

RWSGFY says

It's MT or GTFO!

I'd agree with this. But MT is becoming a rarity these days.

Fun to drive. Even a shit car. But it's a pain in the ass to be honest driving 2 MT's over 12-13 years. I basically have a bus now with the Armada. All the luxuries. I don't need a BMW or some luxury car, but I'll take the high end average car. As long as the stereo works, seat warmers work and I can tow up to 9k lbs I'm satisfied. Oh and it fits my kids. Still pissed about the Sequoia... these car threads piss me off.

How about EV? ICE cars are dead.

DooDahMan says

What's supposedly in the first picture? A man in the clouds?

Cloud watching was literally a past time 40 years ago I know. I've done it back then, the game is what do you spot, and then getting the other person to see it. Still think my brother screwed with me a few times saying he could see something that I never could. Not like we had cameras back then to force them to explain it.

Anyhow, I think nearly everybody sees faces in the other two images, hardly surprising or shocking.

WookieMan says

I'd agree with this. But MT is becoming a rarity these days.

Fun to drive. Even a shit car. But it's a pain in the ass to be honest driving 2 MT's over 12-13 years.

How is it a pain? I drove many years in the SFBA traffic. No pain. I drove fucking truck-based diesel RV on the wrong side of the fucking road (Australia) and still it was no pain at all.

Traffic killed the manual transmission.

rocketjoe79 says

How about EV? ICE cars are dead.

This looks pretty interesting as it powers a supercar (hybrid with a two liter 3 cylinder engine). Via MotorTrend.
The new power unit has been dubbed the "Terrier," and it features Koenigsegg's new compact electric motors, which have now been named after the only known particle that has to deal with all four forces of the universe—the "quark." A single Koenigsegg Quark motor produces 250 kW, or 335 hp, and 443 lb-ft of torque at its peak output, and weighs just 63 pounds....
While we wait for more details on the layout of the Quark motor, we posit it likely has its permanent magnets arrayed in a manner that can be energized either axially or radially, and that there are electric stator winding phases located both radially and axially, and energized independently under whatever conditions are optimal for each design's power and torque delivery. Essentially, Koenigsegg smashed both layouts together and designed programming to make it work.
What you really need to know is that it means "optimal" power delivery from the motor, and doesn't need a transmission or step gears because "the RPM of the motor is right from the get-go," according to CEO Christian von Koenigsegg.

original link
_M/