patrick.net

MarkInSF says

theoakman says

The stock market environment since March 09 has convinced several people that they are trading gurus

I knew lots of trading geniuses in the late 90’s.

I got pretty much out of stocks 8 to 9 months ago when I incorrectly forecasted a rise in Natural Gas prices but still made 20% on all the plays I made on that forecast. Most traders I know would come up with some sort of explanation as to why they were right rather than simply admit they got lucky.

I don't know if I'm a bear or a bull. I trust one of the regulars to place me in the correct ecosystem.

So Geitner is just Ranger Smith?
And all then houses are de pick-a-nick baskets?

Generally when I think bull or bear I think people screaming 7000! or 14000!

There is also a group here, which believes we're recovering but there are going to be up's and down's from here but neither a major bull nor major bear market will be seen for at least a couple of years.

@Bap33 if you're not sure where you fit, I would then put you into the above category.

You're either SURE it's going to 7K or you're sure it's going to 14K or you're sure it's not going to do much..

ARMageddon has been deferred until further notice. Who said you can't get blood from a stone.

6. Come to terms with current home prices and realize that "Don't 1099 Me Bro" expires at the end of 2012.

I am sure ... without doubt ... that it is all going to slide down for as long as the bandaids make it take (maybe 4 months, maybe 3 years), and will remain at a true bottom for no less than 10 years. What does that make me?

Bap33 says

What does that make me

I would hope it makes you out of the market.

I guess if were talking just RE over the next 12 months, you can put me firmly in the bearish camp.

Long term, I think we're looking some similarities to Japan due to a fundamentally broken financial system, which has been papered over going on 2 years now, and not a single shred of political will evident to change that. This is not just another business cycle. We've got lots of advantages they don't have though, so it's not likely to drag on for decades.

The bottom in California will remain 2009.

Interesting bit from Barry Ritholtz's TBP re. the Appraisal Institute’s 16th Annual Summer Conference:

During the session, Bruce Norris (The Norris Group)-who is considered to be a top authority on the Southern California real estate market-shared some intriguing insights. He believes the region is in an artificial market and is concerned about the shadow inventory that could flood the market, forcing prices even lower. However, this isn’t the shadow inventory of bank-owned homes you may have heard about; he refers to all the houses that may yet go into foreclosure. The problem will vary by region, but referring to Riverside County in Southern California, Norris presented some pretty alarming statistics

• 23% of prime borrowers are not making payments

• 47% of non-prime borrowers are not making payments

• 90% of properties are upside down on value-to-loan (60% owe more than

150% of value)

Many borrowers haven’t made a payment in more than two years and have yet to receive a Notice of Default.

These numbers are frightening when considering the inventory that may come into the market in the next few years. Norris added that lenders and the federal government have slowed the foreclosure process to prevent a further deterioration of housing prices. But this artificial slowing of foreclosures belies the fact that there are still major waves of residential mortgage defaults on the horizon. It will be interesting to see if this policy plays out for the best or backfires and causes another flood of foreclosure properties into the market . . .

I'm a bear. I understand the basic premise of sentiment when it comes to investing. However, like every other investment indicator it is not 100% dependable. If it were we could all use it and become rich, which itself defies the very principle of sentiment- the minority can't make the majority rich. But I would say that many here aren't participants in the market, which is a prerequisit to be included in a sentiment calculation.
Therefore what is the true sentiment of the housing market? Investers? What do you think? I would guess currently, at least by the comments I've read here that by and large people are fairly positive in at least the not too distant future and beyond. Is this really negative sentiment and the investor class is full speed ahead? Or are these folks really small-time poseurs catching knives the banks are dropping on them? Ask yourselves why banks are not lending and guys like Bill Gross want the gov to guarantee all the bonds for housing. Doesn't exactly sound like confidence to me.

So you don't think that a Black community leader would be in the right to tell young black men, to leave those fat white women alone, all they want to do is get knocked up by as many partners as they can find. Then pin child support payments on them as well as collect government assistance.

Some how as a white guy, that wouldn't bother me one least bit. Something tells me, I don't think the media would say a word either.

But if a white person said the same thing to fat white women to leave those black guys alone....

Whoa brother we'd hear about it from every talking head from NY to CA.

There's not a race problem in America there's a free speech problem.

Everyone has it, but whites.

So don't listen to her, I DON"T or anyone like her.
I don't listen to radio talk show hosts period, unless they were the only thing on and I'm driving.
But I can still turn the dial if I don't like what is being said. And when that happens, it's the things being said that I don't like, not the talk show host as a person.
And there's no Moralism in Radio.

Bubbles will continue to deflate.

There is no such thing as free speech in the media when you have sponsors. Rule number one is to never offend ethnic groups because America if filled with ethnicities that are potential paying customers who fatten corporate bottom lines.
The real problem is we have a president who is only half black. We need a real black president, maybe a Zulu or something. Remember that Idi Amin guy? Now that's black with a vengeance. Alas, guys like Al Sharpton and Jesse Jackson look uncomfortably hispanic in comparison. By jiminy, they even have freckles.

The next year is far too small of a sample. We're likely to see a bumpy ride of ups and downs, and data that doesn't make a lot of sense, with 1 quarter showing good results, and the next poor. Most likely it will be varying data sources which will create panic as if we're heading up fast, or heading down quickly.

Good bye to fetid festering rubbish! Good riddance, I say!

Now if only we could get rid of the fat slob addicted to oxy and the raving madman who converted to Mormonism, we'd clear the airwaves of a whole bunch of hate.

thunderlips11 says

And her employer/contracted party has the right to terminate her contract if they think her mouth is hurting their business, because she’s on their airwaves, on their time, on their dime. That’s free enterprise.

Yeah, and conservatives like free enterprise, so long as they're able to keep all the spoils. When it works against them, they rant, gnash their teeth, and demand corporate welfare and tax breaks from the gummint to save them. Now she's eligible for unemployment.

So wait, they drop her mortgage balance down to $480K, but then she has a $220K extra lien on the house that she doesn't have to pay on? Is that how it works?

Welcome to debt slavery! LOL! I would walk and take the credit hit.

mikey says

Bubbles will continue to deflate.

They'll inflate everything else up to make the housing bubble blend in. Their heavy duty printer can do wonders.

@E-man
Would you define slightly as being bear/bullish though? I would think that the slight nature you're talking about would neither net you income by either buying/selling real estate due to the costs and time involved in selling/buying a property. While an oscillation in stocks can make you money, due to the ability to buy/sell quickly with low overheads.

Thunderlips should be on this list too.

anyone know what happened to OTS and Bearmarket?

Bearmarket moved to Utah where he now practices Polygamy Abstinence.

thunderlips11 says

3:5 Bulls:Bears right now (counting vain and simchaland due to the 1 year out timeline).
Tom Wong, can I mark you down as a Bear?

IMHO, Its not really a bull/bear thing. If home prices rise, that would create a risk for jobs, both renters and homeowners.

$85 per month at 7% compounded will get you >220k in 40years
i.e. invest $85 in market index fund every month and you'll have your 220k ready for you when the 40years is up

And the forum was not full of right-wing goons and free-for-all thread privileges. Those were the days, I tell you :-).
Sniff.... I am getting all nostalgic. Perhaps we need to send out the bat signal and do an old school singe thread/blog for one day. Threads have really been wacky this past week. Sigh... there's always 1499 Gingerwood to bring back some of those old feelings...
Now, I am become Debt, the destroyer of wallets. -surfer-x

@repo4sale
Vacation

justme you raise a good point.

Brief Patrick.net history lesson (Patrick - feel free to correct me)

In the early days, Patrick posted threads (or posts or whatever they were called) on a given topic, and you could comment on them. I don't even think a password was required early on.

Most of the people commenting (Surfer-X, DINOR, DifferentSean, etc.)were all west coasters (San Fran, Silicon Valley, Oregon, etc.). Personally, I read most of their stuff, but didn't add my own two cents all that much, because I know little about the areas they were operating in.

Over time, the site grew and the scope stretched out beyond the west coast - about 2005 (?) Patrick added the first forum. With this addition, the topics got more varried and the "regular" posters cane and went.

The problem was there were "dueling" forums. Most of the "originals" stayed with commenting to Patrick or Harm's posts. Relative "Newcommers" such as myself were more apt to use the forum, which eventually was so spam infested ("water" posts, etc.) that Patrick solicited moderators, to which end I volunteered my services.

About 2006 (?), Patrick canned the "old" forum, (it was difficult to maintain from a code perspective) and came up with the current version, which has also grown in size and topic variety.

Patrick also had some great "side links" to his thoughts on non-housing matters that are no longer on the site "How to ask for a raise" "Armenians vs. Turks" etc.

As far as HOF goes, anyone I can think to nominate right now has already been mentioned.

Bearish. "hope for the best, but plan for the worst" is my motto. If anything, I believe that when all is said and done, things will not have gotten armageddonly bad- government (rightly or wrongly) will intervene.

I still stand by my prediction that the DOW to have a one day drop of 1000+ points this fall

Patrick posted that he was taking a couple of days off (says so on the links page). I'm guessing everything is okey dokey.

Bearmarket was one very odd guy. I saved one of his posts linking breast augmentation and suicide. it was long and wierd. I can post it for old time's sake. but the replies came from:

culady
Midwest Mrs.
OICU812 (funny guy)
Timcan
TPB (tot)
Bobby80
Techie

lyoungblood says

Welcome to debt slavery! LOL! I would walk and take the credit hit.

I don't know about "debt slavery", but I assume since it's a refinance the new loan is recourse. Not that that means much.

I wonder how it works with Wells Fargo on it's balance sheet. Do they still count that $220,000 deferred-pay loan as an "asset". It sure looks the only real asset they have is new low-interest, but basically standard 30 yr. $480K loan, with an additional Make-Believe loan of $220K. I bet Wells keeps that $220K Make-Believe loan on it's books as an asset at full discounted value. What a joke. Yep, just like japan.

I don't think prices will get back to 2006 prices for decades if ever, So Her deal is not a good or in my line of thinking smart, I would think foreclosure if
A) purchase loan,
B) non recourse state.
C) Or have short sale

Get out in some other manner. That is not a good deal or at least I don't think so.

ONE more thing, EBguy has a GIANT POINT 1099 (free bee tax on loan forgiveness ends, That is why I tried to tell my 200K upside-down friends to walk NOW but they think prices in Brentwood Ca (north) will come back to 2006 levels not in our lifetime, we are 45 lol NO WAY I see it,

may wanna sit down for this one:

THe fact Beck fell for the lie of the LDS cult shows a real issue with the man. If he cant read the Bible and see the absolute wrongs that the LDS cult tends to follow, he lacks basic understanding of God's Word. His political questions and connecting the dots are spot-on and have not been countered yet by any critic. His biggest haters dont watch the show .. I find it odd that they have a view of a show they do not watch ... oh well. I do not like Howard Stern. He is vulgar-for-humor. I don't like Savage, his show is over-produced and almost fake. But, liberalism does have mental disorder qualities in my opinion. lol. I don't like Rush on all sides, but I did sit and read his first two books and I do agree with him about life, God, and political issues. I do not take marrige advice from him.

I liked Paul Harvey. I liked Mr. Rogers. I liked Big Bird. I really liked School House Rock (learned the Preamble from there) All good message suppliers. Dr. J. Vernan McGee has some great messages, but you folks may not know him until you google.

I never liked Dr. Laura too much. Her "Proper care and feeding" is not allowed in my house, says wife.

Bap33 says

I find it odd that they have a view of a show they do not watch

You may not be aware, that a big part of some "left wing" cable shows are centered (well maybe not centered) around the most outrageous things that Beck and Limbaugh say. When they say really stupid things, sticking their foot in their mouths big time, it gets played on MSNBC. Keith Olberman's show get's a lot of entertaining material from those two.

He and Rachel Maddow are a bit dramatic and times, and certainly biased, but they tend to use facts to support their thesis, and they rarely do the kind of paranoid "connect the dots," dumbed down "logic" that Beck does, because that would not appeal to their audience, who tend to think they are intelligent. Of course I'm sure Beck's audience thinks they are intelligent too. You know street smarts. I feel it in my gut smarts.

What I find most offensive about Beck is his emotion and his arrogant self righteousness. He'll say something so vague, and so speculative, so biased, with a lot of emotion. Just trying to support the emotions on the right, that is of his viewers. He does it without sufficient facts, and with no counterpoint. And he has is little chalk board like he's a teacher. He is an evil man. Pandering to the very worst in people.

I am somewhat of an agnostic, although I was raised Catholic, and I am spiritual in a way. But I find Beck to be a walking advertisement for Atheism, because of the way that he works God in to his nonsense. He has found a way to not feel bad about what he does. It's called religion.

Why don't you start a business instead of whining?

Be your own boss. Many countries, this is the only method of finding a well paying job, create your own.

Are you too lazy now to do this? Is it too much work for you?

pkennedy says

Why don’t you start a business instead of whining?

Because the democrats wants 70% of what that business would make, and on top of that he would have insure all of his employee's kids until the ripe old age of 26 or was it 29?

Ray I think the best thing to do, would be to just not work, and live off of the Social teet.
That way the whole damn system will collapse with in weeks if not months, on these short sighted dimwits. Then we can put this to bed, and America will be screwed up worse than it's ever been. But just maybe, MAYBE, people will look in History books, and say, "Well what about production and Saving" to create wealth and a GDP, that can support everyone that wants to Work.

And we just keep supporting the Old, and the sickly poor, but not the lazy bums that think the world owes them a living.

I think most people want to work but the Government (by design) gets in the way. Both parties, along with the banksters and mega corporations, got us into these extremely destructive trade deals that are crushing the middle class. Then, they add to the perfect storm by allowing millions of illegals into the country in order to dilute the employment force further which of course in turn drives down wages and eliminates jobs for American citizens. All this is going on while the American people are still in record territory as far as personal debt and low personal savings, upside down on mortgages, foreclosures, etc. Social Security is getting swamped due to the baby boomers that are retiring early because many of them are out of work, etc. Wait until the commercial real estate bust hits due to loan resets beginning en masse in 2011. You're going to see credit dry up like a hot day in the dessert. I expect the frauds in Washington to come up with another TARP to bail out the banksters due to their toxic commercial loans, precisely what happened last time.

pkennedy says

Are you too lazy now to do this? Is it too much work for you?

I want a piece of the New American Dream, i.e. "work" for the Guvment. Is that too much to aks for?