patrick.net

There's an easy answer to your question, just go to City-data.com. For example:
http://www.city-data.com/housing/houses-Walnut-Creek-California.html

Scroll down the report and one sees that Walnut Creek has very low rental occupied versus owner (depending on unit type, but certainly SFR). I couldn't get La Jolla to come up apart from greater San Diego, is it actually a City or just a named place? If you use your zip code you can find it.

You make a good point, and it is one of the few compelling arguments for prices holding up in 'fortress' areas. The debate for me is in the boundary of the fortress.

I should add that in my zip, SFR rentals amount to less than 10%. I am one of those and pay rent at about 1/2 (or less) the cost of carrying a standard fixed 30 yr mortgage at 5% with 20% down.

My point is that they are *not* tied to rents any more, but should be, and one day will be again.

pkowen above is saving a boatload of money exactly because the price is disconnected from the rent.

pkowen did not account for mortgage/property tax deduction (which is pretty significant for buying a home in places like Walnut Creek. A 200K household should be able to shave 35% off interest and property tax) and principle payback (which is more significant as interest rates are lowered and principle payback makes up a bigger portion of the mortgage) Once those are accounted for, renting is more or about the same as buying currently.

From my experience, a typical buyer in Walnut Creek, Lafayette can utilize anywhere from 30-40% in mortgage interest and property tax deduction, a buyer in Concord and Antioch is 0-20%. That makes up for a bulk of the rent/buy variation between the more expensive place.

If you put this in a social science context, how many 200K households live and especially buys as a primary in Concord vs. Lafayette? If it is such a great deal, wouldn't all the 200K household move to Concord too realizing all the "value"?

shrekgrinch says

Yeah, I sure don’t — from as broad a tax base as possible and fairly, too. The top 10% income earners already supply 70% of income tax revenues to the Feds as it is. That’s not a ‘broad tax base’ nor is it fair.

That would be fine if the wealth was broadly distributed as well. But when the top 10% own 95% of the wealth, it's hard to have a broad tax base...

Nomograph says

theoakman says

This is an awful time to sell. Gold is on the cusp of going parabolic and the dollar is poised to drop off the side of the cliff the second interest rates rise.

The goldbug’s fatal flaw: they can never bring themselves to do a little profit-taking

Maybe you missed the part above where I said how fun it's going to be to sell it to all the suckers who will be the last ones in the door. Once Gold goes parabolic, I'll start selling. This has been a healthy bull run with plenty of pullbacks to prevent it from getting out of hand so far. I don't really need to do any profit taking. I quintupled my net wealth in the past 3 years. Gold would have to fall down to about $200 an oz and someone would have to liquidate my bank account to get me back to square one.

shrekgrinch says

Tenouncetrout says

“WAGES” is what “Real Estate” is really tied to, both fundamentally and philosophically

Funny, all these years I thought it was mostly tied to D-E-B-T.

Wages _should_ be the main determinant of house prices (as they are of rents) but very risky lending resulted in prices far above what wages will actually support. So you're both right.

shrekgrinch says

Tenouncetrout says

“WAGES” is what “Real Estate” is really tied to, both fundamentally and philosophically

Funny, all these years I thought it was mostly tied to D-E-B-T.

In the 70s, 80s, and 90s rising household wages supported rising household debt loads.

In the 2000s, IMO, rising debt loads supported rising wages.

This is why this recession is not your father's recession.

The socialist bashers who defend the corporations are Tea Party John Birchers. Koch was a John Birch founder and he is the biggest Tea Party supporter.

So, you guys who yell about socialism, and make social security a part of it, can take a long walk off a short pier. Or you can wise up and realize you have been had by one of the more radical political groups in the history of the United States.

I have a completely different theory. Let's profile "renters" vs "owners." On the whole renters tend to be younger and do not have families. Households tend to be 1-2 people. And occasionally a young family. There is no big reason to rent a house in suburbia (nice or not). When people get married, have children or their children head to school they staart nesting and yearning to own. Many people would rather "own" in a neighborhood they can afford than rent in a "nice" neighborhood. And for the singles/couples that want to own? They tend to favor urban areas, or more dense areas.

As much as people recommend renting in a nice school district, most families with kids would rather own elsewhere. There really aren't many potential renters for those neighborhoods. Renters tend to have lower incomes (even in the Bay Area). This may shift as more people decide owning isn't a good idea, the profile of renters may change and there might be more options in the "nice" neighborhood.

Shrekgrinch,

"Show us all where in the Constitution it says ‘all men are created equal’."
http://www.usconstitution.net/declar.html
"We hold these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

Shrekgrinch,
who said "Better to keep your mouth closed and be thought a fool than to open it and remove all doubt"?"

It was also my understanding that around 70% of newly Latino voters vote Democratic.

http://query.nytimes.com/gst/fullpage.html?res=9C06E0DC1638F934A35752C1A96E9C8B63

I also understand that the Senate was used to help convince sparsely populated states to join the union. Otherwise they would only have 1 representative in Washington.

note, the filibuster can be removed with 51 votes right when the new Senate is seated.
a: Mark Twain

Troy says

Honest Abe says

Government interventionism ultimately leads to socialism. Socialism leads to tyranny.

What about Norway? Most socialized economy I’m aware of, per-capita GDP tops for an actual non tax-haven nation:
1 Liechtenstein $122,100

2 Qatar $119,500

3 Luxembourg $79,600

4 Bermuda $69,900

5 Norway $57,400

6 Jersey $57,000

7 Kuwait $52,800

8 Singapore $52,200

9 Brunei $51,200

10 Faroe Islands $48,200

11 United States $46,000
How does this fact not penetrate your ideological defense barriers? Why do you avoid it?
Are the Norwegians not free? Does their socialized systems work well for them? Are they not happy?

Norway is a homogenous, small, oil-rich nation with hardly any crime or military expense. Hardly a comparison to the US.

dude ... the part about created equal is not constitutional ... ummm ... it's Declaration of Independant-al......

and, what's a "newly Latino voter"? If you are suggesting that those who invaded our land are aware of the fact that they will continue to be given free money, food, Section 8, medical, schooling, legal council for as long as they help keep D's in power so those Demliberals can force the legal-immigrant-workers to hand it over - well then, you are correct. That powder keg is just about ready to pop anyways.

Is it safe to assume that you send in more taxes than you are required to?

They thought they had it in the bag but there were no steep victories so I assume they're a bit green and will have to turn over a new leaf.

Nomograph says

Norway isn’t Socialist. They have a three-branch parliamentary government, just like the US.

Socialism is an economic system and the government power structure is orthogonal to that.

Socialism is the public/government "owning" and operating capital and Norway's socialism has historically extended across a broad swath of the economy, from Statoil (hello???) to the government-run banking and telecom (Telenor is still majority-owned by the state AFAIK) companies, to the oil-funded pension plans, to hydroelectric development and aluminum production (Norsk Hydro is 40+% owned by the state).

Liberal guilt is a hell of a thing isn't it :)
Pussies

Ptipking222 says

Norway is a homogenous, small, oil-rich nation with hardly any crime or military expense. Hardly a comparison to the US.

We were once an oil-rich nation with hardly any crime or military expense. We took a different course, and it fucked us up but good.

The homogeneity of Norway and the other Scandinavian examples of state Socialism is an important point but if that's why socialism can't work here then it's a pretty damning indictment of the American experiment and our humanity.

Maybe it's our size? 5M people may be the limit as to how large an effective government can become.

SF ace says

pkowen did not account for mortgage/property tax deduction (which is pretty significant for buying a home in places like Walnut Creek. A 200K household should be able to shave 35% off interest and property tax) and principle payback (which is more significant as interest rates are lowered and principle payback makes up a bigger portion of the mortgage) Once those are accounted for, renting is more or about the same as buying currently.
From my experience, a typical buyer in Walnut Creek, Lafayette can utilize anywhere from 30-40% in mortgage interest and property tax deduction, a buyer in Concord and Antioch is 0-20%. That makes up for a bulk of the rent/buy variation between the more expensive place.
If you put this in a social science context, how many 200K households live and especially buys as a primary in Concord vs. Lafayette? If it is such a great deal, wouldn’t all the 200K household move to Concord too realizing all the “value”?

How exactly do you know I didn't factor in tax savings? Actually I did factor it in, I just didn't waste time detailing a full accounting of rent vs. buy on the place I rent. Factoring in tax savings, which I always do when considering a purchase (I have owned two houses), I am paying about 1/2 the nut to buy the same place compared to my rent.

Prices are indeed disconnected from rents in some places. For me, that means some places are better to rent than buy.

pkowen says

SF ace says

pkowen did not account for mortgage/property tax deduction (which is pretty significant for buying a home in places like Walnut Creek. A 200K household should be able to shave 35% off interest and property tax) and principle payback (which is more significant as interest rates are lowered and principle payback makes up a bigger portion of the mortgage) Once those are accounted for, renting is more or about the same as buying currently.

From my experience, a typical buyer in Walnut Creek, Lafayette can utilize anywhere from 30-40% in mortgage interest and property tax deduction, a buyer in Concord and Antioch is 0-20%. That makes up for a bulk of the rent/buy variation between the more expensive place.

If you put this in a social science context, how many 200K households live and especially buys as a primary in Concord vs. Lafayette? If it is such a great deal, wouldn’t all the 200K household move to Concord too realizing all the “value”?

How exactly do you know I didn’t factor in tax savings? Actually I did factor it in, I just didn’t waste time detailing a full accounting of rent vs. buy on the place I rent. Factoring in tax savings, which I always do when considering a purchase (I have owned two houses), I am paying about 1/2 the nut to buy the same place compared to my rent.
Prices are indeed disconnected from rents in some places. For me, that means some places are better to rent than buy.

Ok, not 1/2, maybe 55% ;)

pkowen says

SF ace says

pkowen did not account for mortgage/property tax deduction (which is pretty significant for buying a home in places like Walnut Creek. A 200K household should be able to shave 35% off interest and property tax) and principle payback (which is more significant as interest rates are lowered and principle payback makes up a bigger portion of the mortgage) Once those are accounted for, renting is more or about the same as buying currently.
From my experience, a typical buyer in Walnut Creek, Lafayette can utilize anywhere from 30-40% in mortgage interest and property tax deduction, a buyer in Concord and Antioch is 0-20%. That makes up for a bulk of the rent/buy variation between the more expensive place.
If you put this in a social science context, how many 200K households live and especially buys as a primary in Concord vs. Lafayette? If it is such a great deal, wouldn’t all the 200K household move to Concord too realizing all the “value”?

How exactly do you know I didn’t factor in tax savings? Actually I did factor it in, I just didn’t waste time detailing a full accounting of rent vs. buy on the place I rent. Factoring in tax savings, which I always do when considering a purchase (I have owned two houses), I am paying about 1/2 the nut to buy the same place compared to my rent.
Prices are indeed disconnected from rents in some places. For me, that means some places are better to rent than buy.

please share some details.

price to rent your house based on best available market value
price of house based on best availble market value
SFH, condo bedroom/bathroom sq ft, city and state

Keep in my im not talking about what the "nut" did in 2006, Im talking Sep 2010 price and rent and I doubt that a buyer now will be paying twice the rate of renting. prove me wrong

Most recent sale (this year) of an almost identical property: $940,000. Rent: $2500.

that's pretty vague so I will have to play your game as well.

30,000/940,000 = 3.19%

3.875% 15 year fixed rate mortgage
1.25% CA property tax
5.125% Interest and property tax
38% Fed and CA income tax bracket for people that qualifies for this loan
3.18% = mortgage and property tax net of tax benefits, net of principle.

SF ace says

that’s pretty vague so I will have to play your game as well.
30,000/940,000 = 3.19%
3.875% 15 year fixed rate mortgage

1.25% CA property tax

5.125% Interest and property tax

38% Fed and CA income tax bracket for people that qualifies for this loan

3.18% = mortgage and property tax net of tax benefits, net of principle.

It's not a game, I just don't care to share too much personal info on a forum, and also don't really care to argue with you.

SF ace says

A 200K household should be able to shave 35% off interest and property tax) and principle payback (which is more significant as interest rates are lowered and principle payback makes up a bigger portion of the mortgage)

I don't understand this. How do you deduct the principle from your taxes? How do you get 35% in the 28% tax bracket? It's only 33% on income above 209k (assuming married, few single people buy 900,000 houses). All the taxes up to 209k is at the lower brackets. Taking 35% (however you manage to do that) off of 1.25% property taxes isn't very much money.

I want to meet your accountant.

SF ace says

30,000/940,000 = 3.19%

3.875% 15 year fixed rate mortgage
1.25% CA property tax
5.125% Interest and property tax
38% Fed and CA income tax bracket for people that qualifies for this loan
3.18% = mortgage and property tax net of tax benefits, net of principle.

You seriously have to explain the math on this one.
I show 900,000 with 20% down to be 720,000
15 year at 3.75 works out to 5,236 monthly or 62,832 per year.

If you deducted the entire amount at 33% (obviously fiction since at 200k you aren't in the 33% bracket and the bulk of your income would be in the lower tax brackets) I can only come up with 3,455 per month.
You can't net all the taxes together anyway. You deduct your state and locals against your federal not pay/deduct twice.

I really, really want to meet your accountant.

I am convinced asking selling prices compared to rents are way out of wack in Chicago area, and nobody has provided one single counter example in another thread. There are a gazillion examples of asking prices that would lose a ton if bought and then rented out.

If this is how it is in Chicago, it must be more so in California where housing prices had gotten even more out of wack.

Ok I just saw the little qualifier "qualifies for this loan". What number would that be????

bob2356 says

How do you deduct the principle from your taxes?

SF Ace was saying principal repayment should not be compared to the cost of renting:

"Once those are accounted for, renting is more or about the same as buying currently."

How do you get 35% in the 28% tax bracket?

9.3% California bracket starts at $40K. State withholding is deductible so this is effectively to ~6%.

Taking 35% (however you manage to do that) off of 1.25% property taxes isn’t very much money.

$3000 is $3000.

StillLooking says

I am convinced asking selling prices compared to rents are way out of wack in Chicago area, and nobody has provided one single counter example in another thread. There are a gazillion examples of asking prices that would lose a ton if bought and then rented out.

Well, I stopped because you showed that you aren't interested in actual evidence. If you decide you'd like to look objectively, then I'll post some for you.

All,

Any insight on the Denver, Colorado area market situation? Specifically interested in Highlands Ranch in Douglas County?

Any data on job market, rents vs. price (per this thread) would also be really useful.

Thanks in advance!

bob2356 says

You seriously have to explain the math on this one.
I show 900,000 with 20% down to be 720,000
15 year at 3.75 works out to 5,236 monthly or 62,832 per year.

Purchase Price 940000.00
Down Payment 188000.00 20.00%
Loan Principal 752000.00

Points 7520.00 1.00%
Points Net Tax 4872.96

IO 2428.33 3.88%
PMI 0.00 1.50%
Prop Tax 966.63 1.23%
Tax Credit -1195.03 35.20%

Subtotal 2199.94

HO Ins 206.67
HOA/Utils 200.00
Maintenance 217.50 0.15%
Opportunity 450.04 2.80%

Total Other 1074.20

Nominal Cost 3274.14

Actual Expense 6567.94

The $3274/mo includes the $450/mo of lost interest on the down payment and a ~$400/mo budget for utilities and maintenance that a renter does not have to pay.

$2500/mo is certainly in the ballpark of buying @ $940,000 if these two factors are adjusted (ie a buyer would rather have his money in a $900K house than with Geithner). PITI minus the P is $2400.

Also note that interest costs decline over time. In 2020 the buyer will be paying only $1400/mo in effective interest and taxes, reducing the total carrying cost to $2000/mo or so.

CAtoCO says

Specifically interested in Highlands Ranch in Douglas County

I have a good friend in Larkspur, looking at the houses in Zillow I've got to say that that fortress has finally cracked. 1 acre parcels are on the market for $80K now.

Just brutal; prices are back to 2001 now. I don't know what that implies about the local economy, but I think all the Real Estate Industry operator-types have been liquidated by the looks of it.

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1250-Kenosha-Dr-Larkspur-CO-80118/87810295_zpid/

pkowen says

I am paying about 1/2 the nut to buy the same place compared to my rent.

It’s not a game, I just don’t care to share too much personal info on a forum, and also don’t really care to argue with you.

this thread is about "Are prices tied to rents"?

you made a strong statement saying I am paying about 1/2 the nut to buy the same place compared to my rent. correct?

well there are too ways to look at it, believe it or question it? I didn't want any personal information just something more to work with, material facts. Without being too specific since you provided nothing specific to work with, I said it is possible for a buyer to pay an amount that is the same as buying.

What's the point of a discussion thread when you can do a hit and run without being responsible for an important point?

"I don’t understand this. How do you deduct the principle from your taxes? How do you get 35% in the 28% tax bracket? It’s only 33% on income above 209k (assuming married, few single people buy 900,000 houses). All the taxes up to 209k is at the lower brackets. Taking 35% (however you manage to do that) off of 1.25% property taxes isn’t very much money."

Based on current underwriting standards, a 720K (whatever the jumbo is) loan probably requires gross income in the 220K range. That is the minimum, most likely the prospective buyer is in the 250K-300K range which put the tax filer likely partially in the 33% federal tax bracket and partially in the 28% tax bracket or 30% average. CA state income tax is currently 9.55%, net of federal income tax it is around 6%+ 30%+6% is 36% give or take a few %.

Troy the CA tax bracket is effectively 9.55%, there is a 2.5% surcharge on top of the tax.

my wife is a tax CPA. You don't want to meet her, her rates is $400+/hr.

"You seriously have to explain the math on this one.
I show 900,000 with 20% down to be 720,000
15 year at 3.75 works out to 5,236 monthly or 62,832 per year."

Read Troy's post, mines is just a simple version of Troy's. The concept is strip out principle repayment and account for tax deductions and the cost to buy and rent looks about the same.

bob2356 says

Ok I just saw the little qualifier “qualifies for this loan”. What number would that be????

The prospective buyer in the Pkowen example, to the extent that they obtain a mortage is likely in the 250K range.

SF ace says

my wife is a tax CPA.

If I could do it over again I'd have gone into that. Such a useful knowledge set to have, making money materialize.

edit: though one does have worry about offshoring this perhaps.

My theory is, that because of proposition 13, owners have very little incentive to sell. Owning in a desirable area is a great way to park your money.
And pass on your low tax basis to your kids. Folks like LMRiM (laughing millionaire renter in Marin) (see posts on Socketsite) specialized in renting Prop 13 houses for much less than you could buy; I highly recommend his posts to anyone interested in doing likewise.

Troy, so if I read your numbers correctly, you're showing a $774/month premium for buying. Individuals then need to put this into their own personal utility function (add dollars for stuff like ability to move, subtract for pride of ownership, nails in the wall, etc...) High marginal tax rates (can anyone say "Sunset Bush tax cuts" ) and low interest rates are getting us close, but we ain't there.... yet.

Troy says

SF ace says

my wife is a tax CPA.

If I could do it over again I’d have gone into that. Such a useful knowledge set to have, making money materialize.
edit: though one does have worry about offshoring this perhaps.

She is front line, hard to replace with India when she is responsible for 2M in revenues for her firm. You really think someone like Kendall Jackson will deal with India?

Your insurance looks a little high, mines is 1K a year. Most SFH does not have HOA and utilities are renters cost.

SF ace says

The concept is strip out principle repayment and account for tax deductions and the cost to buy and rent looks about the same.

This is the mistake I made in 2000-2001. Making good money, renting at $700/mo. The thought of pushing one paycheck a month into a $350,000 condo was just not attractive.

Then that fucker Greenspan dropped rates to 5% and the rest of bubble BS took that condo to ~$650,000.

10 years on, had I bought in 2001 I would have been able to refi twice, down to today's 3.5%, my PITI less the P would be $500 less than my rent and for $2500/mo I'd have the place paid off by 2025.

Live & learn, though I *do* wonder how the PTB are going to save the system like they did in 2002-2004.

shrekgrinch says

The job of the Opposition Party is to Oppose. Look it up.

The job of government is to govern. Look it up.