patrick.net

Vicente says

who cares?

The only real relevancy today is to understand that the narrative provided to you by govt and media in this case is utter bullshit. You don't have to solve the half century old mystery.
Once you understand that they are always covering up something, if not always nefarious, spooky, conspiracy (Kennedys, MLK, Hastings) maybe just prior institutional knowledge (OK City, Boston) or ineptitude (Bengazi), you can at least not be a deluded partisan puppet like thomaswrong.
That is my goal anyway, to remind myself to be eternally and universally incredulous.

White people need to be slaves for the next 3000 years at least, as reparations to the whatever races they have enslaved in the past!

Since everything is white people's fault, it is the least they can do for the principles of justice.

If it weren't for slaves, our founding fathers could never have gotten boners in old age.

debyne says

You have no idea what you're talking about. Having the gov't pay for our care vs the private sector has nothing to do with fee for service. The private sector is already starting to make strides away from fee for service, so your argument makes no sense. The private sector will always ultimately find better, faster, cheaper solutions than the gov't will ever dream of doing.

Yes like our better, faster, cheaper health care? BTW Medicare is one of the primary sources of the push away from fee for service. Get your story straight.

Fee for service is THE problem no matter who pays for it. The whole point of single payer is to get rid of the huge cost of fee for service and the associated billing (not to mention all the costs of running insurance companies, collections, marketing, profits, executive salaries, lobbying, etc., etc.). That's how everyone else in the world manages much cheaper health care.

bob2356 says

Fee for service is THE problem no matter who pays for it. The whole point of single payer is to get rid of the huge cost of fee for service and the associated billing (not to mention all the costs of running insurance companies, collections, marketing, profits, executive salaries, lobbying, etc., etc.). That's how everyone else in the world manages much cheaper health care.

I agree that fee for service is a huge problem, but I don't agree in letting the government become the payer because of all the cost and inefficiencies associated with gov't and monopolies; medicare is a classic example of that. Now that Obamacare is creating a bigger marketplace for insurance companies to compete, you're going to see more and more innovative healthcare payer models that will drive costs down; it was lack of competition that stifled the creativity of the free market to solve it. I forget the name of the company, but they're in Seattle and they already have a model where you pay a monthly fee and get the care you need when needed with a focus on outcomes because the business model is motivated to get you better as efficiently and effectively as they can. We just haven't had a chance for it to take root, and I'm hoping Obamacare will foster that.

How did a Panamanian get to run for President?

HEY YOU says

How did a Panamanian get to run for President?

1000 times this!

I hate foreigners more than life itself.

The NSA will send him a flash drive full of his whiny, sweaty, pleading phone calls to the midget tranny dominatrix hot line, and he will sew his hole shut on this TSA matter.

bgamall4 says

There were plenty of verticl lines, multiple storeys of squibs shooting out of the buildings. BTW, the so called fire demolition in the building in the Netherlands actually proves WTC7 conspiracy because no fire brings a building down symmetrically:

Post up the time on the video of one demolition where just a single line of vertical squibs goes off half way up one side of the building. That is what you are claiming brought down WTC7 silently. A single line of unheard vertical squibs off set half way up the building. And you are claiming that that managed to bring the building down symmetrically. That is what you are claiming, isn't it? And perhaps you can tell me why the first clearly visible sign of collapse was on the other end of the building where the penthouse was.

Try this video. It is quite a bit clearer than yours:

http://www.youtube.com/embed/OUkvnfV606w

Are you still seriously going to tell me that you think those are squibs and that they brought down the building? Ha, ha, ha.

This is damning evidence.

debyne says

Now that Obamacare is creating a bigger marketplace for insurance companies to compete, you're going to see more and more innovative healthcare payer models that will drive costs down; it was lack of competition that stifled the creativity of the free market to solve it.

For the last 75 years there have been 100's of health insurance companies that have been writing polices. What lack of competition was that?

Call it Crazy says

So, Do You REALLY Think We Are At The Bottom???

Only fools think that the bottom has even been come close. Unfortunately, every newspaper and every "economic expert" is actively trying to convince people to become fools. You can tell by the way the Case-Shiller Index is presented.

The Case-Shiller Index is the gold standard for evaluating how much the real estate market is overpriced or underprice. Bankers, realtors, and other scammers despise the existence of the Case-Shiller Index because it is objective, clear, accurate, and indisputable. So the strategy these scammers try is to distort the Case-Shiller Index literally and physically by zooming in on the bubble and stretching the graph so that it seems like bubble prices are normal prices. This is done with the obvious intent to mislead the buyer.

Remember the graph that started it all? This sacred graph showed us the truth.

Notice that the sacred graph starts at 1890. It shows the entire historical perspective, not some arbitrary and misleading period. If you go to see an updated graph at any financial website, you'll most likely see a graph based only on the past 10 years, the very abnormal time of the bubble. If you really lucky, you might see a graph with data going back to 1987, but that's hardly the entire picture.

Here's the 20 city composite graph from SP Indices. I've replace their incorrect y-axis labels with the correct Case-Shiller Index values.

There are three things you should notice. First, the data range is just from 2001 to 2013. You can't select a larger range. This data range choice shows you only bubble prices, not normal prices.

Second, the horizontal dimension in graph 2 is much larger than in graph 1. Third, the vertical dimension in graph 2 is much smaller than in graph 2. Each of these changes greatly diminishes the magnitude of the bubble. It's like taking this picture...

and distorting the aspect ratio to produce this picture...

The woman may not be pretty, but she doesn't look nearly as fat. Well, the distortion of the aspect ratio of graph 2 is far, far greater than what I did to the above picture. So let's take a look at what graph 2 really looks like when restored to the same dimensions as the sacred graph.

Holy shit those are steep changes!

But that's still not the whole picture. To see the truth, we now have to transpose that new data onto the sacred graph to see what an updated graph of the Case-Shiller Index looks like.

I've also copied the index to the new right-most side for clarity, and I've marked off how far back prices have reset. Notice that today's prices are the same as in 2004, when 63% of the overpricing of real estate had already occurred.

Here are the facts.

1. The normal, fair market prices for real estate in modern times is 110 on the Case-Shiller Index. These are "real", not "nominal" prices.

2. During the bubble, prices escalated to 205 on the CSI. That's nearly a doubling of the real cost of a house.

3. Since the bubble burst, prices only declined to being only 35% too high. That's hardly a complete correction. A complete correction, without any overcompensation, would be prices 0% higher than 110 on the CSI.

4. Over the past year, prices have reinflated from 148 CSI to 172 CSI. This is a classic bull trap. Whenever a bubble is corrected, some time during the correction speculators will gamble that the correction is done before it actually is. This causes a momentary spike in prices which then continue their crumbling.

To illustrate the bull trap, recall this holy chart.

Notice it looks a lot like what we're seeing in the updated CSI chart.

5. For prices to simply return to normal, they must decline by 36% from their current levels. That's right. Houses must lose one third of their imaginary equity just to return to the normal, fair market prices during economically prosperous times. And that's just for the country as a whole. Specific bubble markets like south Florida have way more to fall while non-bubble areas have way less.

Image how much they would have to fall if we were to even consider the mass unemployment, declining wages, and financial uncertainty of the past 10 years.

These facts are indisputable. When presented clearly, these facts show beyond any reasonable doubt that the majority of the bubble's deflation has yet to come. We do not even need to consider that the bull trap is caused by foreign speculators to know these things. The Case-Shiller Index, when viewed in its entirety, clearly shows that the bubble is still correcting and it will show us when the bubble has fully corrected. You just have to put the truth before what you desire the truth to be.

you want things turn to shit, put a black person in charge.

bgamall4 says

I am not saying that those squibs and the explosions causing them brought all the building down. I am just saying they are evidence of explosions and demolition.

No, they aren't. The shattering of glass and expulsion of air and debris are clearly as a consequence of the collapse NOT the cause.

bgamall4 says

Truth is, all the supports of the building were disabled at the same time, since the building was in free fall.

Oh, that must be why the video I posted up clearly shows that NOT to be the case.

Call it Crazy says

Until the Department of Health fixed the security hole last week, anyone could easily reset your Healthcare.gov password without your knowledge and potentially hijack your account.

Doesn't matter. The NSA has full access to all your health information as well. The security hole is built right into the infrastructure of the Internet by design.

APOCALYPSEFUCK is Comptroller says

Obama should fist himself on TV and demand that he be indicted for refusing to surrender to Romney.

Shouldn't the people be given the right to fist Obama themselves? You're letting him off easy.

"Though the stream of information generated by the Snowden leaks seems endless,"
.
.
At this point it might as well be written by the KGB, since all the leaks are coming from within Russia of all places. And the naive US press is drinking it all up...

Dont worry once you log in and enter your information, you can keep it! Along with every other hacker.

This and spygate has the potential to ruin this presidency. You can dismiss bengazi and blame bush for the economy, but obamacare is his signature legislation. The administration owns spygate too. There is no one to blame on this. As an executive he should be shaking things up, Sibellius should be gone.
The perception of incompetence can creep in and impact the mindset of how all the other complaints about the administration and the "phony" scandals are viewed.

Many voters picked the president for healthcare reform and to protect civil rights
The grades on these objectively is an F

The only thing keeping the die hards supporting is a lack of an alternative.
Nixon went through this and finally the republicans could defend him no more and dropped him
If Ocare doesnt roll out properly soon and there is another budget debacle soon support for the president and congress will be gone
The question is who will fill the void? Biden? Clinton? Harry Reid? Pelosi? Bonhner? McConnell? With the exception of Clinton virtually noone is fond of any of them
Maybe 2014 will see a new round of dem and rep and perhaps independent (doubtful) faces in congress

The small landlord has an advantage over the new american homes 4 rent wall street type landlord as they will have higher vacancy rates, ability to make cheaper repairs
Will be interested to see number of vacancies that american homes for rent has as of sept 30
As of june 30 it was almost half

Easy money/leverage, that is what made the bubble possible. Add to that irresponsible investors/consumers/speculators and irresponsible lenders/speculators and declining interest rates so that savings accounts can no longer deliver a real return on investment and that is plenty of fuel for inflating the bubble.

Is that as far back as the data goes? Looks interesting but a longer duration to establish the "normal" trend would be nice. As it is now (and we all know that the bubble and crash was an anomalous period) half the graph shows a pretty stable direct relationship between the two, but the other half make them look pretty well decoupled..

Ignoring the bubble-crash for the moment, the question for me is what happens next..the blue appears to be increasing more rapidly than the red in the recent few years, but will it rejoin it or establish some "new normal"?

If blue catches back up with red, and Denver follows the national trend, I'm going to do pretty well on my purchase...and only wish I had "stretched" more.

Unless the money created by the fed trickles down to consumers (not likely as outsourcing/automation/increasing rate of retiring workers is the future of american labor) or the wealthy continue to buy up all the real estate (more likely scenario), how can prices continue to rise?

Vaticanus says

Easy money/leverage, that is what made the bubble possible. Add to that irresponsible investors/consumers/speculators and irresponsible lenders/speculators and declining interest rates so that savings accounts can no longer deliver a real return on investment and that is plenty of fuel for inflating the bubble.

we started the bubble before Easy Money or Lower Interest Rates.. if you look back in 1998, we were already well beyond past highs on CS index... and should have corrected downwards. And frankly we didnt have either. Back in late 80s/early 90s as we saw price peak and fall along with interest rates, there isnt a link between the two in a historical context.

fact is.. ALOT of this Bubble was Consumer driven without any regards to rational thinking....

I agree Thomas but even before the days of "easy money" by your own estimation consumers exhibited irrational exuberance and since very few houses are purchased outright, leverage is what enabled this irrational exuberance.

Vaticanus says

I agree Thomas but even before the days of "easy money" by your own estimation consumers exhibited irrational exuberance and since very few houses are purchased outright, leverage is what enabled this irrational exuberance.

if the public believed it, so did the workers in the banks who gave out the loans.

the two are the same....

perhaps you might have spoken to a few people back than and asked if they

recalled when RE prices fallen in early 90s. You bearly could findy anyone who

did.. just a

few current home owners like me. It was a very strange time.. if anything..

Anyway, it seems you are actually supporting my point that leverage and declining interest rates created the incentive and means for the bubble to inflate.

Interest rates have been on a more or less steady decline since 1980.
http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms/pmms30.htm

Answer: You servants are always at the bottom while I'm at the top in the financial dealings between you serfs. So yes; In the world of peasants, you guys are at the bottom.

Enjoy getting fucked in the ass!

Dan8267 says

was worth $40k in 1980, $41k in 1985, $41k in 1990, $42k in 1995, $43k in 2000, $100k in 2004, $200k in 2006, $300k in 2007, $250k in 2010, and back to $270k in 2013.

Dan8267 says

I've been interested in buying for over 14 years, but I refused to get butt-fucked bailing out some speculator.

So let me understand this, if you had bought the crap shack 14 years ago at 43k and now it is worth 270k you consider that a butt fuck. For 227k appreciation I would say bring on the vaseline.

Dan8267 says

Hell, I see townhouses, a.k.a. row houses priced in the $400k in Boca.

Are we talking the same boca raton bwana? I just did realtor.com and found something like 100 townhouses/condos under 40k.

By the way, I'm not a real estate bear. Sure I hope it drops in price again, and in a sense I'm short RE, but I don't have a strong belief one way or the other as to what will happen.

THe sad thing is that lower prices in the near to medium term would be bad for a significant part of the country, but higher prices will be bad for us too.

We are so fucked ! When prices of such as important and large part of everyone's budget are too high, and yet they literally need to go higher to keep the economy running, and at the same time that will destroy our economy,...well yeah, we're fucked.

smaulgld says

This and spygate has the potential to ruin this presidency.

Agreed.

You can tell things are really bad, because Republicans are finally pissed off at a Democrat president.

HydroCabron says

smaulgld says

This and spygate has the potential to ruin this presidency.

Agreed.

You can tell things are really bad, because Republicans are finally pissed off at a Democrat president.

That might be the best line of the day!

smaulgld says

This and spygate has the potential to ruin this presidency.

Things are getting tough for Nobel prize boy, his latest row of boondoggles and debacles are things that the Liberal spinpress can't pin and blame Bush for. Obama's ass is just left hanging out in the wind, and all of those dingle berries you see, are all of the things that he tried to blame Bush for in the past.

bob2356 says

Dan8267 says

I've been interested in buying for over 14 years, but I refused to get butt-fucked bailing out some speculator.

So let me understand this, if you had bought the crap shack 14 years ago at 43k and now it is worth 270k you consider that a butt fuck. For 227k appreciation I would say bring on the vaseline.

You misunderstand. In the scenario you described, you are the one doing the butt-fucking.

However, if you are the one buying that shack today at $270k, you are the bottom. You don't want to be the bottom.

What ever happened to "survival of the fittest"? If people are inherently sick, let them fend for themselves and only the strongest and most disciplined will survive thereby making the human race more superior. Why try to spend so much of this nation's resources saving the weak?

Dan8267 says

Explain why that house suddenly and permanently quadrupled in value around 2004? What the fuck value was injected into that house in 2004 that I'm not seeing?

If that house actually has a value history like you described, I'd say it's pretty obvious it's the land that is appreciating. Where is it? Is it possible that Something Big happened in the area to bring up the values? It happens.

Here in Denver the area near Coors Field used to be off limits (unless you wanted heroin or hookers), but once the ball park was put in, it's one of the hottest areas in the city -- I couldn't afford to live there. Similar thing happened on the northwest side of the town. As the economy grew and there were more people looking for "city close" housing, the Highlands section went from cheap to out of my price range, seemingly overnight.

People buy and "scrape" houses all the time -- clearly they didn't value the structure, and were just after the land.

Meanwhile, in the news, latest polls show only 22% of Americans approve of the GOP in general.

edvard2 says

Meanwhile, in the news, latest polls show only 22% of Americans approve of the GOP in general.

Oddly only the President cracks 40% approval. Congress dems and reps are in very poor standing
Confidence is not gained when we see congressional fighting over the budget that just kicks the can down the road for two months, closes part of the government while the healthcare.gov site doesn't work and has security holes.

The system is cracking and its not just because of Republicans

I don't think the 1890 index is truly Case-Shiller at all. I'm pretty sure it's only Shiller and someone posted on here in the past that it was actually his grad students that did the work. I'm a bit skeptical of its conclusions as well.

I'm a bear, but only in the world I once knew.

This new world is different. House prices only go up.

The Professor says

If prices go down the investers (not investors, their good for the economy) will
swoop down and snatch up the houses to rent at double the PITI.

What PITI? Aren't investors by and large purchasing with cash? You know what else is good about cash purchasers? They can fix up uninhabittable houses and bring them to market to put downward pressure on rent.