patrick.net

Homeboy says

No, it just has to not be both AT THE SAME TIME. LOL.

You wrote: " The bailout prevented demand from falling at a time when keeping demand was very important. In that respect it was good."

Again, we paid $780,000 PER JOB to keep GM workers employed, so that, according to you, some of them might buy GM cars. And that's assuming that they'd all lose their jobs, which wouldn't have happened. You do understand that a car costs less than $780,000, don't you? How is that "good"?

Like I said--you seem to have a very difficult time with complexity. I'll try it again for you--it's really pretty simple.

Preventing demand from falling is good.

Spending too much money to maintain demand is bad.

See how that works?

The bailout decision had good aspects and bad aspects. Pretending that it was 100% bad with no positives is just silly.

Call it Crazy says

However, with respect to housing, when prices are moving higher, not a single soul will ever forecast a “consolidation” or “contraction”, rather periods of “less appreciation”.

They don't? Have the author never been to Pat.net before?

bgamall4 says

And how do you leave the rifle in the car and carry 4 handguns into the school. The news guy said that the rifle was left in the car according to "officials".

But he fired 150 rounds according to the official report. You can't fucking do that without a rifle. You can't fire 150 rounds from 4 pistols.

I see you have your 'facts' in their usual (dis)order. Is a Bushmaster considered a handgun these days?

bgamall4 says

How could Lanza carry a shotgun, two rifles and 4 pistols. He was a wimp.

Except that wasn't what he was carrying.

bgamall4 says

Damn hoax. Zionist hoax.

So to you it's not only a hoax, but a ZIONIST HOAX. Care to explain that one?

bgamall4 says

The video shows that, while Gene Rosen is not in the screen actors guild, as the debunkers gleefully state, he is very involved in LOCAL THEATER. He is an actor! How convenient.

I swear that you must be paid to post this nonsense to make truthers look even more barking mad than they already do. You are earning every penny.

bgamall4 says

A boy said all the police officers had machine guns. Lanza had 4 pistols. So who fired the shots?

Why are you asking that? You think it's a hoax, don't you? A ZIONIST HOAX no less.

Seems I heard the Vanderbilts lost all their egregious ill gotten money somewhere along the line, relegating poor Gloria to selling designer blue jeans and accessories plastered with her name to support her NY lifestyle, kind of like the ebbing British nobility selling their titles.

Maybe a Vanderbilt without money is still rich to everybody else, they can still trade on the name and connections for a generation or three.

I like the Illuminati and the Lizard People from the future, i'll have to drop some acid and work on that one.

What a frickin idiot.

thomaswong.1986 says

Since Chilean peso inflation continued to outpace U.S. dollar inflation, every
year Chilean buying power of foreign goods increased, all fueled by foreign
loans in dollars[citation needed].

It seems to me that statement contradicts itself?

bgamall4 says

How could Lanza carry a shotgun, two rifles and 4 pistols. He was a wimp. Now the coroner says the wounds were caused by the long weapon. And Adam shot a green care from inside the building. But the car was facing the building yet bullets went in from different directions from the school window. The car was hit from the SIDE.

And there are exit holes in the green car. How did that happen? Was someone shooting from inside the car?

This is easily explained. Jews are good at business and theater/movie productions, but they are too dumb to know that when you fake a mass killing, you don't fake gunshots from inside a car.

Everyone knows this about Jews - physics is their only weakness. It's why the WTC towers fell faster than free fall.

To this day, no Jew has ever won a Nobel Prize in physics!

I was thinking about this the other day: If any of you were active on some of the original housing bubble blogs circa 2003-2004 or so, if you were to read a thread like this you would see almost the exact same language and arguments being made. The fact that this blog and a few others seem to slowly be coming back to an increase in debates about actual real estate and not the plethora of endless liberal versus conservative diatribes shows that we have probably come full circle and the cycle is now starting all over again: There are the same arguments being made by the deniers and the believers. And so here we go again.

I recall an old saying back in the good ole' bubble days: If people are talking about a housing bubble, then the bubble started well before then.

marcus says

What a frickin idiot.

New Rule: Anyone is allowed to advocate for one (1) wackaloon conspiracy theory on the Internet - Kennedy, moon "landings", whatever.

If advocacy of a second such fable becomes known, the following steps shall be taken:

1) Said idiot shall be declared an ASSHOLE, with notices to that effect broadcast over the air and posted on the Internet

2) All Internet access to any domicile known to house said ASSHOLE shall be revoked as long as the ASSHOLE is known to inhabit said domicile

3) The ASSHOLE shall be licensed as a realtor in all 50 states, and a photo of said ASSHOLE placed on a Prudential Real Estate office wall in each state. Bus-bench ads, advertising said ASSHOLE's face, together with an offer of realty services shall also be purchased in the ASSHOLE's neighborhood.

Bigsby says

It's precisely because they were new sites that they could be changed. Barely anyone had visited them. They had less than 200 likes. The people who had created them decided to use them for another purpose. Exactly how many millions of people use facebook? And you think it is strange a couple of people repurposed their pages? You who believe some of the most outlandish conspiracy nonsense going and that you constantly peddle on here think THAT is strange. Give me strength.

Come on man...it's not just Facebook. You obviously didn't read the whole link. There were websites where this happened too, and it's indisputable because the date stamp is when the article is posted and it's tracked in the URL itself. See here:
http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2013/01/16/guide-for-how-to-talk-to-children-about-sandy-hook-pre-dated-the-massacre/

Once again...even if there's a "glitch", how could this happen for the same event in about 5-6 separate instances? It's ridiculous.

I love this tidbit. CNN shows video of a swat team running into Sandy Hook, but it's not even the same location...they showed some random scene of guys running into a building that's not Sandy Hook elementary school.

http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2013/01/22/cnns-live-aerial-footage-of-police-running-into-sandy-hook-was-of-another-school/

bgamall4 says

Zionism has, according to the translator of the plan, Israel Shahak, the power over the US press. The goal is to weaken the US, and the housing bubble was crucial to that. The goal is to weaken the US, steal the wealth, and disarm the Americans.

The weaker Americans are, the stronger the neocons/Yinon Zionists are. Shahak's predictions of main stream media control over the conversation is true with 9/11, Sandy Hook, and with regime change in the middle east which we bought into in the Iraq War with no clue about the origin of the motive.

Yinon wanted regime change in Iraq back in the1980's, and the neocons adopted the plan and finally came to power with Bush/Cheney.

It is the banker/neocon/yinon zionist/mainstream media cabal at work.

Shit, I almost spilt my coffee on my laptop. Thanks for the laugh though. Damn, you are one crazy SOB.
Mind, I think you still need to expand on the role of Sandy Hook in all of this as it got rather lost in your laugh out loud mix of conspiracies.

Whatever. Like I said, those who do not learn from history are prone to repeat it. The fact that people are already talking about a housing bubble means we have already been in one for some time. As I mentioned in another post, this thread is EXACTLY like the very same conversations being had circa 2003-2007, and the very same outcome will happen as well. Its not a matter of if, but how long this one will take to play itself out. It almost feels nostalgic. Its been awhile since we've seen these " There is no bubble!" type of arguments.

There's no sense in continuing this conversation if you won't even acknowledge what is accepted history and fact.

edvard2 says

And as currently seen with today's new bubble, much of that same sort of action is happening again

No it's not. Underwriting standards are good. Appraisers aren't lying. Mortgages aren't being securitized to anywhere close the same degree.

None of the same action is happening now.

tatupu70 says

No it's not. Underwriting standards are good. Appraisers aren't lying. Mortgages aren't being securitized to anywhere close the same degree.

None of the same action is happening now.

So I suppose we can add you to the list of deniers then. Good. That way it'll be like the good ole' days with the two sides arguing. Makes for good housing bubble blog content.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

A real bear is long yams.

or honey

bgamall4 says

debyne says

I love this tidbit. CNN shows video of a swat team running into Sandy Hook, but it's not even the same location...they showed some random scene of guys running into a building that's not Sandy Hook elementary school.

http://fellowshipoftheminds.com/2013/01/22/cnns-live-aerial-footage-of-police-running-into-sandy-hook-was-of-another-school/

Yeah, the plants and the landscaping is totally different than Sandy Hook, lol. What a bunch of idiots. CNN was the station that paraded neocon warmonger after neocon warmonger on saying that Obama's bombing Syria would not be enough and we would need troups on the ground. I hate CNN.

And do you think the part that he circles in the other school looks like the one on CNN because I must say that I fail to see the resemblance?

I would suggest reading this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_bubble

Definition:
"An economic bubble (sometimes referred to as a speculative bubble, a market bubble, a price bubble, a financial bubble, a speculative mania or a balloon) is "trade in high volumes at prices that are considerably at variance with intrinsic values".[1][2][3] It could also be described as a situation in which asset prices appear to be based on implausible or inconsistent views about the future.[4]"

But a few key pieces from it are things like this:

"According to the explanation, excessive monetary liquidity (easy credit, large disposable incomes) potentially occurs while fractional reserve banks are implementing expansionary monetary policy (i.e. lowering of interest rates and flushing the financial system with money supply); this explanation may differ in certain details according to economic philosophy. Those who believe the money supply is controlled exogenously by a central bank may attribute an 'expansionary monetary policy' to said bank and (should one exist) a governing body or institution; others who believe that the money supply is created endogenously by the banking sector may attribute such a 'policy' with the behavior of the financial sector itself, and view the state as a passive or reactive factor."

I had mentioned this very thing in a previous post.

"Simply put, economic bubbles often occur when too much money is chasing too few assets, causing both good assets and bad assets to appreciate excessively beyond their fundamentals to an unsustainable level. Once the bubble bursts, the fall in prices causes the collapse of unsustainable investment schemes (especially speculative and/or Ponzi investments, but not exclusively so), which leads to a crisis of consumer (and investor) confidence that may result in a financial panic and/or financial crisis"

As seen with current affordability indexes, appreciation has indeed been excessive and hence unsustainable in regards to the aforementioned index.

"Popular among laymen but not fully confirmed by empirical research,[7][8] greater fool theory portrays bubbles as driven by the behavior of a perennially optimistic market participants (the fools) who buy overvalued assets in anticipation of selling it to other speculators (the greater fools) at a much higher price."

As seen in this and other posts we definitely have "Perennially optimistic" investors whom just like the last bubble were present on forums such as these, whom never- ever for a moment even whispered the word " bubble" and over time were proven wrong.

bgamall4 says

First attack the messenger. You are well trained, you dog.

You posted what you posted. Is that my fault? It was a gem.

bgamall4 says

Second, the connection of Sandy Hook in this is the general attempt on the part of the cabal to weaken America as a whole. Stealing from America through the housing bubble and wars in the middle east goes along with disarming America. Weakening America makes Americans more dependent on mainstream media and less educated and discerning.

Shahak predicted the Zionists would come after America and he predicted that the press would do the Zionists bidding.

And that is a very close second. You think Sandy Hook weakened America as a whole? How did it do that? It's the sort of event that brings a country together (albeit for a short time and with the exception of the conspiracy nuts out there who would no doubt run a mile from any social contact with others).

And let me guess, America would be more educated and discerning if only it tuned in to Bgamall's go to conspiracy websites instead of the usual media outlets. Let's just say it's the sort of 'education' that any sane person would be best served giving a wide berth.

Oh, and just out of curiousity, exactly how did the instigators of this grand zionist plot manage to rope in so many thousands of every day Americans, from very young children to OAPs, in this amazingly convoluted supposed scheme of theirs?

Look at this asshole, he thinks he can mind read people over the internet and determine if theyre mad or not? lol

SubOink, i'm not mad at you. i think you are an overwhelmingly pea brained nobody. you come on here barking bout having a 30 year mortgage like its a great achievement to someone who has had a paid off house for over a decade in one of the most desirable areas of san francisco, and unwittingly make yourself look like an idiot. why would that make me mad? it brings me great amusement to see you looking and acting like a dumb asshole

lol

The man changes his mind more than Ross Perot having a senior moment.

Call it Crazy says

Check out the date of the article in your link...

Whoa - Good catch!

A pre-dated article is a sure sign that Yanni Zionists planted this disinfo, but cui bono?

House prices always fall when the economy grows at a 4% annual rate and unemployment is falling.

Rates are up! mortgage apps are down! Recovery is just around the corner!

edvard2 says

Its fallen to levels the lowest in over four years, and in major metros like SF,
LA, NYC, Boston, and so on, those affordabilty numbers are far, far worse.

Edward - your point is taken about terrible affordability (per your link, SF is only affordable to 14% of the middle class). Yet, if you want to know if that constitutes a bubble, its important to note how affordable or unaffordable SF is, relative to its long term average. I.e. has SF been perpetually unaffordable or is this a new condition?

In point of fact, trulia does (first link to your link) measure the long term affordability, and determine overvalue/undervalue relative to long term fundamentals.

http://trends.truliablog.com/2013/08/bubble-watch/

Thus, their conclusion SF (which has a long history of being unaffordable to the middle class) is a mere +4% overvalued relative to long term fundamentals.

So yes it is overvalued by 4%, but again, that has little to do with affordability. Yes, SF is affordable to only 14% of the middle class, but that is (per Trulia) only 4% above its long term average of perpetual unaffordability to the vast majority the middle class.

Iwag says

Look at this asshole, he thinks he can mind read people over the internet and determine if theyre mad or not? lol

SubOink, i'm not mad at you. i think you are an overwhelmingly pea brained nobody. you come on here barking bout having a 30 year mortgage like its a great achievement to someone who has had a paid off house for over a decade in one of the most desirable areas of san francisco, and unwittingly make yourself look like an idiot. why would that make me mad? it brings me great amusement to see you looking and acting like a dumb asshole

lol

ok then...tell us how you really feel...

:)

thats better, quiet and subdued suits you

glad i could help

Yes, thank you for all the help. I do want to make you aware of a spelling mistake on your name. Take the I and the G and replace it with a T.

Now go on and fix it.

You are welcome!

you can't brag about having a mortgage anymore so i guess this is the natural progression for your type

flat lined prices in concord, fact

lies, lies and more lies

why dont you just claim 3,000% gains

no one believes you anyway, you know that right?

oh thats a lie and you know it. we know for a fact that you care and care a lot

someone who has 16000 post on a forum definitely cares

Is there a recovery or not?

This is my last chance before I'm priced out forever. Where have I heard that before?

Is this just for california? Or does this apply to texas, florida, georgia, pennsylvania, ohio, michigan, oklahoma, kentucky, nebraska,maine, louisiana and south carolina as well?

Last chance? LOL. Like, there will be no more suckers in the future. Very funny!

Yup, those welfare rolls just keep growing.

The market here is fairly sewn up. You either have the desirable property or you'd better be willing to pay a premium for the few that come up for sale. I've no idea if or when this state will change. This place is nuts.

Here's my (somewhat) contrarian take. As Ivy Zelman noted, it's different this time: "In many ways, the current recovery is unique in that price was pulled forward to the beginning of the cycle, versus an accelerating trend in prior rebounds". This frontloading is due to the Keynesian fantasyland we've been living in. We now begin the slide (sideways) to oblivion as you gotta pay the piper at some point for the (economy saving) stimulus.