patrick.net

REpro says

This is correct. It calls “impact fee”.

It's not just direct fees either, although those are more typical in San Francisco. The whole planning process here in the Bay Area tends to be very expensive overall and the cost per square foot for construction/addition is very high as a result. To some extent, the extremely high cost of construction sets a bit of a floor on housing prices, even though the technical value of a house is in the land.

REpro says

Where this money goes is another question.

In SF, a lot of it goes to the non-profit-industrial complex. Those guys are good at pulling in other people's money for misguided programs that don't achieve what they think they achieve.

myob says

These kinds of prices require dual high income families to afford. Where do all the average income earners live? Is everyone commuting in from Gilroy and Tracy? It's hard to imagine how this could be sustained

Came to the point that a lot of middle class earners are freak-out with situation and seriously considering moving to Oregon, Texas, Arizona, … kind similar action as in 2005-06. Bay area residents may face another household expense soon e.g. private schooling.

dodgerfanjohn says

Lol@ "I posted more words than you and I said so" as an argument

LOL @ "I can't think critically and therefore ignore data and analysis" as an argument.

Bigsby says

The obvious question being when.

This year or by 2019 by what I read in that article

indigenous says

Beaulieu also sees a 15 to 34 percent correction coming in the stock market.

He says he sees a downturn in 2019. I suspect that means the 30 percent stock market drop will be in 2018. So we are around 1870 for the S&P 500 with a market cap to GDP ratio of 116%. If it goes down about 20% to a ratio of 90%, then the market is back in the fairly valued region.

It was 150% back in December 1999.

adarmiento says

He says he sees a downturn in 2019. I suspect that means the 30 percent stock market drop will be in 2018. So we are around 1870 for the S&P 500 with a market cap to GDP ratio of 116%. If it goes down about 20% to a ratio of 90%, then the market is back in the fairly valued region.

It was 150% back in December 1999.

It is unclear whether he is talking about this year or 2019.

The main thing to know is that due to FED activity the stock market is overvalued willy nilly and there will be a large correction, so stock investment is skating away on the thin ice of a new day, to think otherwise is folly.

It's the gift that keeps on taking.

How is the earnings and revenue going to be impacted by the Federal Reserve decreasing its quantitative easing to zero ?

Look at how the sales or revenue for major bluechips like Walmart have steadily gone up since 2004.

http://investing.money.msn.com/investments/financial-statements?symbol=wmt

corntrollio says

dodgerfanjohn says

Lol@ "I posted more words than you and I said so" as an argument

LOL @ "I can't think critically and therefore ignore data and analysis" as an argument.

Point me to the data and analysis in this thread.

adarmiento says

How is the earnings and revenue going to be impacted by the Federal Reserve decreasing its quantitative easing to zero ?

I think they were saying that the impact is going to come from the impact of O care.

That and the normal business cycle.

It will be/is incumbent on Yellin to keep QE going.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

The buyer establishes the home's value.
Screw the seller,appraisers, commissioned sales people & banks. They don't care about the buyer. 10% of asking price unless idiocy is in one's DNA then all they can do is overpay.

indigenous says

It will be/is incumbent on Yellin to keep QE going.

Don't say I didn't warn you.

I agree as the Affordable Care Act (aka: "Obamacare") is going to have a bigger price tag than what it was sold at back in 2009. That is because the original forecasts were based on no exemptions and delays (i.e., for public sector unions with Cadillac healthcare plans, etc.). It will be interesting to see who the Democrats will blame for the larger prices. Will they only focus on the insurance companies ?

Perhaps there will be a bailout of the insurance industry because of this ?

As far as QE #5 from the Janet Yellin, I think the Fed may stop no further than $30 billion per month of the Federal Reserve buying mortgage back securities and U.S. Treasury notes. I do not think QE will go down to $0 for another two years.

And as a result I suspect that the 10 year Treasury Note will not go above 3% for at least another 2 years.

A home's value is based on what a buyer is willing to spend to buy it, and what the seller will agree to sell it at. And I think there are forces at work which determine this equilibrium point.

They are several rules which create these forces. Such rules are price to income ratio, Principal/Interest/Taxes/Insurance as a percentage of median household income, as well as Patrick's rule below:

annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy, prices are too high
annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline
annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy, prices are reasonable

The bottom line is that Yellin has to keep the interest rate low in order to keep the debt service low.

A well known predictor of the economy is the interest rate on bonds in other words the higher the interest rates corporations have to pay the slower the economy.

Obama care is equal to higher interest rates. I assume this is what they are saying will influence the stock market.

"The 1980s Are Now Calling to Ask for Their Foreign Policy Back"

indigenous says

The bottom line is that Yellin has to keep the interest rate low in order to keep the debt service low.

A well known predictor of the economy is the interest rate on bonds in other words the higher the interest rates corporations have to pay the slower the economy.

I agree as long as the US Treasury 10 year note stays below 3% that the Federal governments interest payments will be less than 10% of the federal budget.

Also the lower rates means more earnings for the corporations since they pay less interest on their debt.

Lower rates force retirees to invest in stocks in order to avoid earning a paltry 1 to 2% on I series savings bonds and Certificate of Deposits (CDs).

Kerry voted "YES" on the resolution to authorize the war in Iraq, a war based upon trumped up charges.

zzyzzx says

Blurtman says

Has Russia killed 100,000 women and children in the invasion of Crimea? No.

They have killed way more in previous invasions.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_crimes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_war_crimes#Soviet_Union_perpetrated_crimes

Did Russia engage in the genocide of an indigenous people? We are talking about the current action in Ukraine, and the hypocrisy of a country that has committed war crimes quite recently.

"annual rent / purchase price = 3% means do not buy, prices are too high
annual rent / purchase price = 6% means borderline
annual rent / purchase price = 9% means ok to buy, prices are reasonable"

It's a long winded way of saying buy in the Ghetto and not prime. Which is absolutely a mistake.

Based on that theory, someone like Patrick would buy in places like Vallejo 10-20 years ago and not buy in Menlo Park, which turned out to be a millior dollar mistake. If the rules doesn't work, it makes no sense to worship it.

corntrollio says

Read S-1s and other SEC filings and also read articles on this. You can see
how tightly concentrated share ownership is in a select few. The difference
between the shitty businesses that had IPOs in the 1999-2000 range is that the
businesses were shitty, had no revenue/profit, and the founders gave up a lot
more of their stock. Working for these shit businesses was way more risky than
working for, say, Facebook in 2010.

The companies that have been IPOing lately have had a more identifiable
revenue model, and the founders and key employees haven't had to give up nearly
as much stock.

More important is the companies that haven't been undergoing IPOs because
they sold privately. In those cases, the founders and key employees retain an
even bigger share of the pot and the VCs retain most of the remainder. Rank and
file get enough to get them not to leave their job, but it's not a whole lot
unless you were really early.

The stock compensation section of the 10-K under notes to consolidated financial statement details the options outstanding.

The biggest change in stock compensation over the decade is the popularity of RSU's, PSU's in lieu of options, especially if you are not the first several hundred seed employees. stock units guarantees a payday (if liquidity hurdle is cleared) albeit you lose the upside of sheer options where the price explodes and you hold say 30K options and benefit on the increment than say 10K units where you benefit from the entire price.

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know. You didn't buy one house in Cupertino, you just bought four houses, one for each of his four kids, aged 10-18. Wealth drives future demands. People who made their wealth in the dotcom eras are the buyers the last 10 years in the valley. People who makes their wealth now, will drive demand for their next generation.

bgamall4 says

Blurtman says

Kerry voted "YES" on the resolution to authorize the war in Iraq, a war based upon trumped up charges.

And that knowing that WTC7 was demolished. It is on video where he admits to the demolition. So he knew the Zionist plot to make the US invade the Middle East on behalf of Israel and he still voted for war. What a conflicted piece of crap.

We even have the president of Israel visiting, he is still out here talking to politicians. Probably up to something as usual.

The Ukrainians should just sell Crimea to Russia, and use the money to pay off their debts and move some Ukrainians from all over Russia back to Ukraine while expelling some of the remaining Russians.

Last night on PBS, Henry Kissinger was interviewed by Charlie Rose. I'm not a big fan of Kissinger in general, but what he said about Ukraine made a lof of sense. There is no video available yet. Tere might be vdeo later.

Kissinger said Ukraine should be democratic and independent, that the 2014 revolution has NOT been democratic, that Ukraine should not be part of NATO, that Crimea should be autonomous (as it has been), and that the Russians should get an indefinite lease on their Navy base in Crimea.

He used the expression "the Finnish model", which means that Ukraine should emulate post-WW2 Finland, which oriented towards the west but adopted a non-confrontational non-NATO military stance toward Russia.

Except for the added insight and subtlety of using the Finnish model, these are exactly my thoughts on Ukraine.

Now we have both Henry Kissinger and Stephen Cohen being voices of reason. I hope Kerry and Obama are listening carefully.

This plot surely gets thicker and thicker every day. It sure is bad to be in a little country stuck in a tug of war between 2 super powers.

zzyzzx says

The Ukrainians should just sell Crimea to Russia, and use the money to pay off their debts and move some Ukrainians from all over Russia back to Ukraine while expelling some of the remaining Russians.

I think the price at this point is buy 0 and get 1 free.

dodgerfanjohn says

corntrollio says

dodgerfanjohn says

Lol@ "I posted more words than you and I said so" as an argument

LOL @ "I can't think critically and therefore ignore data and analysis" as an argument.

Point me to the data and analysis in this thread.

http://royalsociety.org/uploadedFiles/Royal_Society_Content/policy/projects/climate-evidence-causes/climate-change-evidence-causes.pdf

This report from the Royal Society and the US National Academy of Sciences came out last week.

Here is the table of contents to whet your whistle:

Correction: Estoniation FM (Foreign Minister), not PM, made the statements.

Now, the fact that police and demonstrators were shot at with the same type ammunition proves exactly NOTHING. Do I really need to spell this out? There are many common types of ammunition, and no reason to believe that only certain groups of people have access to certain rifles and ammunition.

Type of ammunition neither supprts not detracts from any particular theory at this point.

New Renter says

Assuming by that time the prices of Chilean beach homes don't make a corner Manhattan apartment with a park view look cheap.

Fortunately that won't happen because of Pinochet's legacy, although a Monetarist at least they do not suffer from Keynesian propaganda

bgamall4 says

bob2356 says

So give me a link. I'll be waiting, and waiting, and waiting, and waiting.

Find it yourself you lazy ass. Ok here it is because you are a pig and can't find it:

http://www.haaretz.com/news/features/.premium-1.533382

Now that you know it is true, perhaps you will give Putin a little more respect and our leaders no respect for selling out to the Zionists.

Your link is subscription only. I'd rather have a 32 root canals without novacane than subscribe to anything you read. So where are the dual citizens? Got names? Still waiting and waiting and waiting. What happened to your girlfriend facebooksux? She didn't come up with anything either. Which one of you is dumb and which one is dumber?

SFace says

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know. You didn't buy one house in Cupertino, you just bought four houses, one for each of his four kids, aged 10-18.

This fact dispels the theory that the RE rally is unstable because houses are bought by investors and not first-time buyers. The truth is, look like investment properties, actually have been bought by four first-time buyers!

hanera says

SFace says

The thing is if you hit on the right company, at the right time, at the right executive level from someone I know. You didn't buy one house in Cupertino, you just bought four houses, one for each of his four kids, aged 10-18.

This fact dispels the theory that the RE rally is unstable because houses are bought by investors and not first-time buyers. The truth is, look like investment properties, actually have been bought by four first-time buyers!

I think what I am trying to say is wealth more so than income drives price. Income is a small component of wealth which are accumulated , transferred won/last in many ways.

While many people don't see future demand (For example, what will happen when no one buys the boomers homes thread as an example). It's ridicolous, with the sheer amount of growing wealth, it will be more competitive than ever.

hanera says

The truth is, look like investment properties, actually have been bought by four first-time buyers!

Not when you see the homes in question:

But of course the value is all in the land.

hrhjuliet says

She says it's the weather keeping everyone from buying....in So Cal.

Hahaha. A couple of them told me they will look for the house for me using door to door campaigning.

SFace says

While many people don't see future demand (For example, what will happen when no one buys the boomers homes thread as an example). It's ridicolous, with the sheer amount of growing wealth, it will be more competitive than ever.

I agree with you. The QE gift from the Fed inflated bay area company values way beyond any fundamentals. People here are not stupid, they've seen this movie before. They cash out their equity positions and diversify in real estate. Even if their company values deflate, they usually don't sell their real estate holdings since they are here waiting for the next cycle.

tr6 says

They cash out their equity positions and diversify in real estate.

Another good point, supporting my suspicion that the current RE rally in SFBA is mainly driven by tech folks and not foreigners.

hanera says

Another good point, supporting my suspicion that the current RE rally in SFBA is mainly driven by tech folks and not foreigners.

I think it's a bit of both. A house for sale on my street in Mountain View had a full sized bus of asian investors pull up on a real estate investment tour. When I was bidding on houses, several houses that I bid on were picked up by all-cash absentee buyers (aka, investors). When housing is in such short supply, any demand drives up the prices.

I'm one of these people who's been working in tech here for almost 20 years, and after this long, I could barely afford a starter home here. Granted, I never won the startup or stock option lottery, so I had to do this on savings and paycheck income. I think I'm more typical than the guys hitting the huge fortunes at Google, Apple and Facebook, and I can hardly afford to live here anymore.

tr6 says

about the size of the Fed balance sheet

which is immaterial unless and until actual wage inflation comes.

full employment 1990s-style is still 12 million jobs away.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sMf

or 2018 if we gain 250,000/mo

though I do suppose Fed balance sheet -> weaker dollar -> higher Brent -> higher gold

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/graph/?g=sMh

Inflation (wage or otherwise) can happen irrespective of employment rates. Unemployment is caused by lots of things - regulation, recession, health care costs, etc. You can have rising wages and rising unemployment in a zombie economy like ours.

The Fed's balance sheet matters because it's related to bidding up prices of assets, namely, real estate and equities, which are the only things that can soak up trillions of dollars. Equities/real estate are very coupled to each other and to fed policy.

myob says

I think I'm more typical than the guys hitting the huge fortunes at Google, Apple and Facebook, and I can hardly afford to live here anymore.

I had a friend who *did* win the AAPL lottery who couldn't afford to live there an more.

Well, after he finally quit after 20+ years and didn't need to live so close to Cupertino he found $1M+ could buy 2 very nice acres above Santa Cruz vs. some shitbox in noise range of the 85.