patrick.net

When it comes a time that more and more people start packing heat (e.g., Florida), that will be the day that I get out of dodge, you might have a very nostalgic version of the wild west, but I think more people got shot in the back then what they portrayed in old western movies.

I really do see that being the future of America though.

Eventually, we will vote to eliminate fire/police/emt - those are social services that are a waste of taxpayer dollars. As Thatcher said: there's no society - just individual families.

So, those who want to be safe (and can afford it) will live in gated communities with private patrols (these exist already), and they will be shuttled to private school or malls in armored SUVs on terrible roads. If a fire breaks out, that's fine because the community has a fire crew to handle that - perhaps an urgent care center as well. No need to worry about the "bad" people.

In the end, there's no need for this "public" stuff. Public just means "The People's" and as we all know, that's communism.

But, in the event that you do want to go out into the public for some bizarre reason, you simply get your kevlar on and hop into the armored SUV.

Who can manage your safety better? The evil wasteful corrupt government? Or small businesses and families?

Ironically, in the future, we'll be looking at Mexico City of today for ideas - since most of what I described apparently happens there already today.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Daegu_subway_fire

Let’s ban fire!

That's why we need to ban mass transit. It attracts terrorism.

Looking at some of the daily news from Iraq, it appears that there’s a growing knowledge base on how to create incidents sans guns with high body counts there.

What's your point? Hardware stores have policy about spray paints and many drug stores have meds locked up so that people don't buy them in bulk to cook meth. The difference is that there is no second amendment protecting the rights of ownership for these items. If a country collectively believed gun ownership is important (which seems to be the case here in the US), that's fine with me. But just accept the fact that these horrible tragedies will continue to happen.

I had a lawyer for a roommate, and she said people with technical degrees almost NEVER get on jury trials. Lawyers don't like critical thinking in the jury, it's harder to sway them with "Won't somebody PLEASE think of the children!" arguments.

eBurbed: have you read Snow Crash?

skibum,

Thank you for trying to focus the group. I am guessing that when the NY Times writes an article that (in a backhanded manner) says you would have been better off renting for the past two years, the JBRs declare victory (and move on to tatoos and guns). Anybody here with the guts to short Wells "high LTV HELOCs" Fargo?

File this under, we will avoid foreclosure at any cost...
One of the newest approaches: the "Mod Squad," a roving 50-person team of problem-solvers who work for EMC Mortgage in Texas, a subsidiary of Wall Street investment bank Bear Stearns. EMC services about 500,000 loans nationwide, with $78 billion in outstanding balances.

Named after a hit TV series from the late 1960s and early '70s, the Mod Squad consists of experts in loan modifications -- custom-crafted solutions for borrowers who no longer can afford their mortgages at current rates and terms. The object is to search for changes in the loan requirements that will permit the borrowers to remain in their houses, pay down their loans and avoid foreclosure.
http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2007/04/15/REG4LP8FQ01.DTL

Back on housing for a sec: California NODs past previous (1996) peak.

I don't like jury trials. This country should have moved to 3 judge panels years ago.

But just accept the fact that these horrible tragedies will continue to happen.

The acceptance is implied. Do you know how many people die of DUI related crashes every day on average in America? I would say more than 31.

http://www.madd.org/stats/11088

I don’t like jury trials. This country should have moved to 3 judge panels years ago.

Or trial by combat.

What’s your point?

I have really conflicting views on gun control. I used to be really pro gun control - in part because I found the anti-gun control crowd so ridiculous. (See http://patrick.net/wp/?p=438#comment-489402)

But then I realized that at the end of the day, we're such a screwed up bunch of people that it wouldn't matter. And that only 30k people die from gunshots in this country a year. And that 42k+ die in automobile accidents. So it seems to me that if we got rid of cars, that would solve a lot of problems - including drive by shootings. :)

In summary - there was no real logic to entry.

Back on housing for a sec: California NODs past previous (1996) peak.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

No, pirates caused the housing bubble!

Remember, just because NOD's are past historic peaks is no reason to panic, because foreclosures, while rising, are still historically low.

So buy buy buy!

We'll see a rise in shootings when the banks try to reposess the HELOC'ed house boats from the pirates.

We’ll see a rise in shootings when the banks try to reposess the HELOC’ed house boats from the pirates.

If house boats were repossessed the number of pirates will fall and global warming will continue. We must bailout the pirates!

Named after a hit TV series from the late 1960s and early ’70s, the Mod Squad consists of experts in loan modifications — custom-crafted solutions for borrowers who no longer can afford their mortgages at current rates and terms

The Mod Squad was one of my favorite TV shows, the Mod Squad were actually felons if I remembered correctly, they were given a chance to redeem themselves by doing undercover work.

Arr, it's a sorry pirate that doesn't know how to bail their own bilge!

(NOD's)

Also notice that 2004 was the low point in the cycle coming in right around 50,000. As FB's and future FB's finally get to the "what went wrong?" perspective the good old days just keep getting pushed back further and further. By early '06 the "where's the party phase" it was too early to say "2005 was as good as it gets" as easy money was still front and center in their minds.

In the fullness of time they'll come to realize '05 was very definitely late in the cycle and they "should" have felt queasy when they in fact felt very confident at the time.

I wonder if there will be a correlation between NODs and shootings in California.

Of course, this falls under the category of baseless correlations and bad statistical analysis, but my personal observation is that indeed, crime tends to escalate when the overall economy is sour, which in turn is correlated with the local housing market.

Currently, the "renaissance" seen in a lot of cities has gone hand-in-hand with the housing boom. NYC, Boston, DC, Philly, SF, LA, all had a decrease in crime (including violent crime) more-or-less during the boom. Now that there's some fraying around the economic edges, some of these cities are beginning to see crime creep back up - I've seen stories in the news about this happening in Oakland, SF, Boston, DC, etc. Interestingly, the city that's probably holding up its RE values is the one exception - NYC. From my understanding, their crime rate remains low.

Correlation? Yes. Causation? Who knows. Then again, maybe pirates are hovering around the shores of these cities as we speak...

File this under, we will avoid foreclosure at any cost…

EBGuy,

No problem. The gun control issue bores me, honestly.

RE: lenders trying to avoid foreclosure, that's a pretty well-known fact. They will try almost anything to do this, as the foreclosure process is a huge negative for their books, from return on the property, to diminishing their appeal to the secondary mortgage market that may or may not want to purchase mortgage the primary lender is trying to repackage and sell.

Funny how this is happening so soon after WF (last year, I believe) entered whole-hog into the subprime game. I wonder if they still think that was a good idea.

As part of my ongoing series, entitled "What? You Mean Foreclosures Can Happen in Good Neighborhoods in Silicon Valley?"

I bring you the following listing:
http://www.movoto.com/real-estate/homes-for-sale/CA/Burlingame/1438-Laguna-Ave-100_702235.htm

Here's the courthouse steps where you can try a bid lower than the $1m they sought...

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=San%20Mateo

Here's another one for you. This time in sunny Saratoga:
http://tours.tourfactory.com/tours/tour.asp?t=282715

Only $1.2m for a six bedroom in Saratoga!!!

Awww... but that's EAST of 101! That's like... the East Palo Alto of Burlingame! BUY! BUY NOW!

$1.2m too rich for your blood? How does the new prices of $950k sound?

http://sfbay.listpic.com/sby/rfs/282013972.html

Still no takers at $950k? Don't you know that they are not making any more land in Saratoga?

Ok, last chance. Let's meet on the courthouse steps on 4/30.

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=Santa%20Clara

I certainly would prefer to live in a secured building in the next few years.

Perhaps I should be even more paranoid, I do work on K St.

Cupertino, anyone?
http://www.zillow.com/HomeDetails.htm?zprop=19632320

Another one seemingly headed for the auction block... (But don't they have good schools? How can this happen?)

PAR,

RE: the Saratoga listing - I wonder if the "straw that broke the camel's back" for that FB was the hottub in the back they likely bought at Costco, probably during one of their serial refi's.

RE: the Burlingame property - SFBB is right. It's nasty there. Plus, the house is in pretty awful shape. I wonder if it was a flipper who got caught upside down in a changing (read falling) market?

Either way, both these properties show me how screwed up things are. Someone paid over $1M for each of these POS's, and they couldn't hack it. In what universe is either of those properties worth over $1m???

PAR, my wife and I actually went to look at the saratoga place. The guy handling the listing literally would not let people in to see it if they had a realtor. I have no idea what was going on there, but it was shady to say the least.

Also, Quinto is the end of the Lawrence Expressway. My wife and I nicknamed the street "Baby Killa Avenue" because of the heavy traffic.

That cupertino one is weird, as the 2006 taxes were 1,600 bucks, saying it's been Prop 13'd for a good long while. Is that a HELOC casualty? I think it must be!

Speaking of Cupertino.... Becky Lee just got a commission from a December sale in Cupertino. A nice 3/2 on 19121 Barnhart Ave. Way to go, Becky!
http://www.beckyleehomes.com/page.asp?num=8505

I hope their kids enjoy the great schooling...

None of those http://www.recontrustco.com/ links seem to work

Uh-oh. NOD filed in March. Back to the courthouse steps for this one.

http://www.recontrustco.com/property_results.asp?county=Santa%20Clara

Don't like the previous 6-bedroom that I listed? Then how about this $2.3m beauty?
http://www.trulia.com/property/11463320-15545-Quickert-Rd-Saratoga-CA-95070

(Bidding starts at 11:00am sharp on 5/9. Don't be late.)

I guess those links are cached. Try going to the main site, click on CA properties and scroll down to the county you want...

FWIW, if you want to go back to gun control debating, you should post them at this link:

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2007/04/16/more-to-come/

"FBI Warns of Copycat Attacks"

http://www.housingtracker.net/askingprices/California/SanJose-Sunnyvale-SantaClara/

Just refreshed

Date Inventory
(SFH + Condo) 25th Percentile 50th Percentile
(Median) 75th Percentile
04/16/2007 5,414 $577,500 $689,900 $915,000
04/09/2007 5,161 $579,000 $689,950 $915,000
04/02/2007 5,219 $579,000 $690,000 $924,000
03/26/2007 4,985 $584,750 $695,000 $928,888

Frickin Fortress South Bay

Here's a funny one from the archives. "doodler" posts on patrick.net in April 2006:

doodler Says:
April 3rd, 2006 at 8:11 pm

My good friend is the listing agent for a PRIME active listing Los Altos property: 1722 Selig Lane, Los Altos. This home has been on the market for weeks with NO BITES. Oh yes that spring surge is definitely upon us.

Well, if you missed your chance back in '06, here's your second opportunity. Just meet here with cash in hand:

AT THE NORTH MARKET STREET ENTRANCE TO THE COUNTY COURTHOUSE, 190 NORTH MARKET STREET, SAN JOSE, CA 5/11/2007 11:00:00 AM