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My longshot prediction for the 2012 presidential election: Ron Paul will be the Republican candidate for president


               
2011 Apr 26, 6:21am   8,799 views  37 comments

by terriDeaner   follow (0)  

Ron Paul is scheduled to announce his formation of a Presidential Exploratory Committee today.

As much as I am loathe to discuss politics these days, I just couldn't resist! Besides, we're not that far off from the 2012 presidential campaign so increased levels of political discussion are inevitable.

Ron Paul Explores, World Reacts
http://reason.com/blog/2011/04/26/ron-paul-explores-world-reacts

And I think his David-and-Goliath bit with that 'Wall Street dandy' Trump will only help to ratchet up his popularity. Especially since Trump is most likely going to go out Perot-style once he's forced to publicly confront everyone he's ever screwed on real estate for the past 40+ years.

Although Paul is not currently the most popular Republican candidate (this varies poll to poll... with Romney currently in the lead... maybe?), there was a head-to-head poll (Paul vs. Obama) done by Rasmussen 2 years ago that put them both at ~41%:

Is Ron Paul Neck in Neck With Obama in 2012?
http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20002497-503544.html

Note, don't read too much into this article, as Nate Silver demonstrated that Rasmussen showed a detectable Republican bias some time ago:

Rasmussen Polls Were Biased and Inaccurate; Quinnipiac, SurveyUSA Performed Strongly
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/11/04/rasmussen-polls-were-biased-and-inaccurate-quinnipiac-surveyusa-performed-strongly/

So is anyone else game? Intrade has Ron Paul pegged at 3.0% for the Republican Nominee in 2012 (For comparison, Trump is at 9% and Romney is at 25.8%):

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=669534

This will make for some great political theater... and C'mon now... even if he could get elected president, he won't REALLY dissolve the Fed!

#politics

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36   Vicente   @   2012 Feb 26, 1:39am  

Nomograph says

Folks on these forums have really bad track records when it comes to making predictions.

To be fair, it was qualified with LONG SHOT not dead certain "why can't the rest of you dolts see how obvious the outcome is".

37   elliemae   @   2012 Feb 27, 11:12am  

Nomograph says

Folks on these forums have really bad track records when it comes to making predictions.

I knew you'd say that.

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