0
0

Land Prices & the Property Bubble


 invite response                
2005 Aug 25, 1:03pm   12,269 views  126 comments

by HARM   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

Per GreenCanopy's request:

Several here emphasize housing as an investment, shorn of mystique, a place to put money. While this a simplified picture, it is analysis-friendly. Treating housing as an asset class leads to a couple of interesting questions (–> topics?): To what degree can we understand the ‘bubble’ as herd-mentality asset rotation, and how can we further decompose the asset class called ‘housing’.

I like the second one first, because it has more to suggest for what types of property might do well during a deflation. Housing decomposed as Land+(Bricks+Sticks)+Labor+Regulation vs the MacroEc variables. What you haven’t covered (or I’ve missed) is an opinion on land prices and their behavior within the property bubble. Should they behave similarly?

Things to consider:

  • Higher housing supply = More available houses, but less attractive land. No, we’re not really running out of land, but is there enough of a perception to preserve a mania?
  • The NAAVLP phenomena applies much less to lots, as applications for land mortgages and construction loans are examined quite rigorously (simultaneously fogging two mirrors…). Perhaps speculation is as rampant with land, but could the landowner be less forced to run for the exits? Also, the tax burden is lower on unimproved land.
  • Study One, Bank of Canada, emphasizes land’s importance in housing appreciation:
    The Price and Quantity of Residential Land in the U.S. http://tinyurl.com/dpx6u
  • Study Two, Cato, emphasizing regulation’s importance in housing appreciation:
    Zoning’s Steep Price http://tinyurl.com/dhng5
  • Thoughts?

    #housing

    « First        Comments 88 - 126 of 126        Search these comments

    88   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 2:05pm  

    Ha Ha

    I don't know much about mortgage products, but I've heard that it is possible to opt for a permanent neg amortization loan that continues to balloon pretty much as long as you hold on to the property. The logic I guess is that you can sell or refi before the payment exceeds the value of the home or you can just let the balance grow if you plan on never moving. (how stupid would that be)

    But I'm guessing the article you posted was being ironic, at least I certainly hope so.

    Re:troll

    Ignore ignore ignore. If no one ever talked to him he would dissappear. Granted, I've talked to him in his more civil moods but I'm beginning to think it's a waste of time. For the most part he just drags down the blog and it seems like too many interesting people are opting not to post anymore. Is it worth offending quality people to keep one marginal personality around? I don't think so.

    89   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:06pm  

    BayQt - working on that new thread (Appraisal Fraud).

    90   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 2:11pm  

    Like Shmend Rick says, at his best MP provides a foil and occasionally some comic relief. When he just brags and makes no sense (often), then we can just chuckle and move on to other things. As long as he (and everyone else) behaves and doesn’t get nasty & personal, I see no grounds for booting him off. And like SactoQt and others often point out, if you don’t want to see more MP posts, just don’t address or provoke him.

    *sigh*

    91   sfbayqt   2005 Aug 26, 2:15pm  

    Thanks, Harm....only if you think it's time. If not, I (and I'm sure the others) can wait.

    BayQT~

    92   sfbayqt   2005 Aug 26, 2:16pm  

    Sometimes I have very little tact.

    In print, my “tone” can look angry when what I thought I was expressing was incredulousness! I am sorry. If you recall I was second to welcome you back!

    I appreciate your post, Jack.

    BayQT~

    93   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:19pm  

    Btw, did anyone read Primetroll's latest masterpiece?

    94   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:34pm  

    For the most part he just drags down the blog and it seems like too many interesting people are opting not to post anymore. Is it worth offending quality people to keep one marginal personality around? I don’t think so.

    Ok, I guess we're NOT quite done with this subject, so...

    Here's the problem with the "ban the troll" approach: the last time I threatened to boot MP, we had a vote and it ended up about 60% in favor of keeping him. When Peter P actually DID ban him, there was a sizeable outcry in favor of restoring him, so clearly this sentiment is not 100% shared by everyone here.

    However....

    If a majority of bloggers here feel that he is causing irrepairable harm (no pun intended) and his presence is directly responsible for keeping you from participating, then let me know now and I'll take care of it.

    I want ANOTHER show of hands: Can you live with MP or is his presence here so offensive that you want to leave and/or stop posting?

    95   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:40pm  

    Btw, if a majority votes to ban, there will be no going back this time. I will ask Patrick to filter all of his comments and I will not ask him to reverse that decision if any of you regret that decision later on.

    96   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:45pm  

    I guess we need a vote deadline: how does midnight tomorrow sound?

    97   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:49pm  

    New thread: Appraisal Fraud

    Don't forget to vote before you bail on this thread.

    98   sfbayqt   2005 Aug 26, 2:49pm  

    Having MP turn it down a peg or two would probably be asking too much. Sometimes he adds a little flavor, sometimes he is downright annoying. However, when the conversation begins to revolve around him, I may make a comment but for the most part I elect to stay in the background. My observation is that some of the regular contributors are doing the same since I don't see their posts as often as before. But then again, they may just be taking a break, or just waiting for the next topic.

    BayQT~

    99   praetorian   2005 Aug 26, 2:51pm  

    Possibly useful content:

    http://tinyurl.com/762du

    I can feel interest rekindling. This is bad.

    Chewbacca,
    prat

    100   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 2:52pm  

    BayQT, so is it thumbs up or down for you?

    101   quesera   2005 Aug 26, 3:08pm  

    It's amazing how weak we are. So easily baited into argument-like-discussions trying to counter largely nonsensical statements with points that will be ignored.

    I don't actually want to persuade MP or anyone else to agree with my opinions, but it's impossible to learn anything from the discussions MP half-engages in. As it's been said, always on transmit, never on receive.

    I don't think it's feasible to ignore him. It only takes one hasty response to start an avalanche... Even if today's voting population could manage to hold back, newcomers wouldn't, and the cycle would repeat.

    At the end of the day, anything that encourages people like Zephyr and Veritas and Prat to contribute (all missing lately), and discourages arrogant verbal masturbation...is good for the community.

    I hate the appearance that I'm voting to squelch someone with a contrary opinion (and I wouldn't have done so last time around), but I think it would be best.

    I hope, truthfully, that MP will reregister with a new name and contribute in a less antisocial way.

    Lacking other options, I vote to ban.

    102   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:12pm  

    I think the blog in general has seen a major loss of quality and whenever a flame war erupts it generally involves the same person. I have actually seen him post the same post 3x's trying to get a response, so I know it's all about attention.

    The only reason I would vote to keep him is to see if he actually keeps his bet and shows up for sushi. Then we'd actually know if he's the real deal. If he wiggles out of the bet or the pay off phase, then we know it's all a sham. But the thought of having to put up with a bunch of BS in the meantime... I'm not sure I'd stick around if the threads keep deteriorating. Lately I show up to make a few lame jokes and that's about it. I'm wondering if the topic is getting stale or I'm just tired of wading through a bunch of meaningless babble. I don't know....

    103   sfbayqt   2005 Aug 26, 3:13pm  

    I wasn't in on the last vote (probably during my break), but I'll go with a thumbs up. I'll just ignore him. Let's see how the others vote.

    BayQT~

    104   quesera   2005 Aug 26, 3:14pm  

    @SactoQT: I agree. If the threads were half the length, but we didn't spend any time discussing MP, it would be a huge improvement.

    105   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 3:15pm  

    Let's get this over with as quickly as possible, so we don't waste even more time on the subject, okay? I want a thumbs up or down on MP from EVERYONE --not just regulars.

    Prat, SactoQt, Peter P, Jack (need I ask?), TWIT, Gabby, Shmend Rick, Zephyr, Mr. Right, astrid (again, need I ask?), Yuan, Kurt S, Veritas, News, AntiTroll, primetroll, chan, SIM, hymie, pbass, ptiemann, SoldAtThePeak, Dipanjan, laverty, SiliconValleyRenter, NervousinOakland, Van Kouver, Jamie, Karrie, matt_walsh, Surfer-X, Cattle, Economist...

    Still waiting... what'll it be ??

    106   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:17pm  

    I think quesera's right, ignoring hasn't worked because there is always someone who'll answer. Maybe better to ban because intelligent people are leaving in disgust.

    107   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:18pm  

    Ban and be done with it.

    108   praetorian   2005 Aug 26, 3:27pm  

    I'm pretty doctrinaire about free speech, but sadly he's made the site measurably worse off for both sides of the debate. He's free to start his own no-doubt heavily traffic'd blog and discuss the finer points how how much better his life is than everyone elses there. It gives me no pleasure to say this, but...

    [mortal-kombat-voice] finish him [/mortal-kombat-voice]

    Cheers,
    prat

    109   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:32pm  

    Harm

    It just occured to me that my tolerance for MP has probably waned because I haven't had any poetry from primetroll to make it bearable. I think it was AntiTroll who offered to make MP some fugu, blindfolded no less. I wish MP would take him up on his offer. :twisted:

    110   HARM   2005 Aug 26, 3:40pm  

    Actually the fugu reference was from primetroll's latest Haiku masterpiece --see his 6:20 post. ;-)

    111   SQT15   2005 Aug 26, 3:43pm  

    Oh my goodness, I got my people mixed up and didn't even realize primetroll was still making it interesting. What's wrong with me? Too much white noise I think...

    112   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 2:03am  

    @MarinaPrime,

    How on earth did this last post create such a fuss? Harm, News.. are you guys trying to ban me b/c we have this bet? That’s really weak guys. And then, i read some guy named ‘Chan’ calling me a POS asshole etc etc. When have i ever used a swear word or put down anybody?

    Even when provoked, i keep it pretty civil

    If you had bothered to read the entire thread you would have known that the bet or lack of civility on your part had nothing to do with it. And btw, I've deleted Chan's comments and gave him a warning.

    I really don't care one way or the other. Problem is, many others on this blog DO care, and your presence appears to be keeping many of them away. I don't like having to play the role of censor, but that's the way it is. I'm sorry, but it seems to have come down to either you or everyone else --we'll know by tonight anyway.

    113   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 2:07am  

    Peter, SactoQt,

    I'm going to be tied up until late tonight, so can you please monitor the active threads for me (if a flame war erupts, send the offenders' IPs to Patrick, etc.)? Thanks.

    114   Jamie   2005 Aug 27, 2:39am  

    So are we still supposed to vote? I will just in case. I personally would just say keep MP around for the sake of freedom of speech, because I find it easy to ignore his comments when they get overly useless (and I do think he's bizarrely--and unintentionally--funny), but if he's keeping intelligent posters away...I have to vote to ban. :-(

    But who will be the voice of dissent? Where's Fake P? I miss him.

    115   sfbayqt   2005 Aug 27, 2:51am  

    Jamie,

    Yes...For all who have not voted, per Harm's last post the deadline is still midnight tonight.

    BayQT~

    116   Peter P   2005 Aug 27, 4:41am  

    Re MP, I vote "abstain".

    117   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 5:18am  

    Well, MP has made his final farewell, twice. Yet promised to check in at the end of the year. :roll:

    Maybe we can have an actual discussion now.

    118   Peter P   2005 Aug 27, 5:44am  

    changing his name to Scrooge McDuck.

    LOL :lol:

    119   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 6:54am  

    Primetroll's idea has merit. If MP get's over his tantrum and checks back in, and the vote goes in the 'let him stay' direction, let him have his thread and those of us who'd rather not talk to him can just not participate in that thread. The real trick will be in getting him to stay off the other threads.

    120   KurtS   2005 Aug 27, 6:57am  

    Let’s get this over with as quickly as possible, so we don’t waste even more time on the subject, okay? I want a thumbs up or down on MP from EVERYONE –not just regulars.

    Well, only because we get "blogged down" on this one person--bye!
    Conversely, I think it's good to consider how I can bring something interesting/useflul to this site.

    121   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 6:59am  

    Well, only because we get “blogged down” on this one person–bye!
    Conversely, I think it’s good to consider how I can bring something interesting/useflul to this site.

    I suppose we should all be asking ourselves that.

    122   SQT15   2005 Aug 27, 8:15am  

    Ultimately the problem with MP is that I want to give the guy the benefit of the doubt but he always screws it up for me. :neutral:

    123   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 5:36pm  

    Ok, it's past midnight, so the "polls are closed" so to speak. Fellow blogsters, may I have the envelope please.... (drumroll)

    Ban MP: 9
    (10 if you include astrid, who hasn't posted since the "incident")
    keep him: 2
    Abstain: 1

    BAN IT IS!

    124   HARM   2005 Aug 27, 6:19pm  

    Some parting thoughts...

    Things about MP I will miss:
    1. Having a relentless anti-bubble contrarian to argue with now that Fake P & Face Reality rarely post anymore.
    2. primetrolls' MP-inspired poetry
    3. His comic relief value --many of his claims and "arguments" were so ridiculous and over-the-top that they couldn't be taken seriously.

    Things about MP I WON'T miss:
    1. His immature, arrogant, solipsistic way of defining everything in relation to his own absurd, inflated ego-projection of himself.
    2. His tendency to provoke (or manage to be the center of) numerous nasty flame wars, thereby driving away quality posters.
    3. ALWAYS ON TRANSMIT NEVER ON RECEIVE (over time he improved somewhat, but this tendency never really went away).
    4. His whiny, disingenuous, fake self-pitying (see his "last" post above) and painting himself as a victim when he damned well knows WHY he's being banned.

    Too bad it has to come to this, but sometimes "the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one."

    125   HARM   2005 Aug 28, 3:40am  

    Np, Jack. Hopefully this will put the matter to bed for good.
    I've already noticed a measurable improvement in the quality of posts and participation --heck, even Surfer-X came back to weigh in.

    126   praetorian   2005 Aug 28, 7:24am  

    “the needs of the many outweigh the needs of the one.”

    Here's the great thing about the internet: He can start his own blog, and put out his message for all to consider. Not only that, he can turn on comments, and he can link to posts here, posting counter-arguments.

    So, he get's a forum for his viewpoints, and we don't have to do bayesian a**hole filtering when reading threads here. And, if the fancy strikes us, we can head over to his place to see his arguments.

    Really, it's a win-win.

    Cheers,
    prat

    « First        Comments 88 - 126 of 126        Search these comments

    Please register to comment:

    api   best comments   contact   latest images   memes   one year ago   random   suggestions   gaiste