patrick.net

Picking individual stocks is tricky of course. One trick is knowing when to sell them. I really do not do it, except some Apple I bought once and won't sell until they stop selling kidneys to buy Apple products. My Apple is under 1% of my financial assets.
When you pick a stock, you are hoping you see a quality that others did not notice. You hope the stock goes up because they begin to notice. You are predicting the future, e.g. "Apple will sell MORE stuff", which may or not happen. Then, to make a profit on your stock, people must have changed their opinion to share your opinion that "gee, it really is insanely great". So, this auction can be difficult and few managers ever match the index.
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund is a good deal. This was my first stock fund, it's worked out.
Buffet owns GEICO. He recently bought a railroad. He knows that some products or services will continue in the USA regardless of how many guys are roaming the streets bumming for change "my house was foreclosed, spare change?"

Re: collectibles. Long term capital gain is pretty high, I think 28%? Short term varies.
But as a practical matter, who knows you have sold it?

I'm in my late 20s and I have a long horizon. No debt and a good amount of money in tax advantage accounts sitting in cash at the moment. I also have cash ready for a down payment for a place when prices in my area becomes better to buy than rent.

So if you were me, would you go all in with my portfolio or dollar cost average or wait a year or two. I've been on the sidelines since mid 2010. bought bunch in 2009 and took profit.

Money for retirement should be invested, because your goal between today and your retirement is *accumulate capital*. This means, your goal is to have a lot of something worth a lot of money.
For most people, mutual funds is a good way to start. Stocks can accumulate capital, bonds create income, gold preserves capital. Starting your own business can accumulate capital.
My little old lady neighbor is richer than god. She is 93 and has done this with mutual funds and her own stocks but she picked giant companies like GE which is almost like buying Berkshire Hathaway, the stock is almost a mutual fund itself. I do not recommend buying individual stocks myself. Others may like the "action".
If you are eligible, the best is have a Roth. You can later decide to spend it ona downpayment, the rules allow this with no pre-retirement penalty, which 401ks have.
If I had a retirement account, I would personally never put cash it it, since there is no tax advantage and cash can NEVER accumulate capital or grow.
If I were a person in my twenties I would not wait a couple of years to get into stocks and other investments via mutual funds.
Look at a fund like T.Rowe Price Capital Appreciation. See the "mountain chart" and see how that looks to you. This for example is a very conservative fund.
If you are very concerned about the stock market, in your retirement accounts AT LEAST put them into bond mutual funds, the interest is not taxed in that account. Not Muni bonds in the retirement account of course.
I do not believe in trading in and out, even the professionals get this wrong very often. It tends to be self-defeating.
If you have new money coming in, a portion of this can go into your retirment funds and this is by definition your dollar cost averaging.
The economic conditions are a little bit scary these days. The song "fools rush in" is one point of view. The other is "a faint heart never won a fair maiden."
My personal feeling is I am more afraid to retire poor than see my portfolio fluctuate down once in a while. Fuck it, I don't care.
My example is Mexico, where Iived a couple of years. I saw extreme poverty, then in 81 the peso went through the floor. The country was basically fuct for decades.
And yet, if you owned Cemex (concrete) and some other stocks you would have made a bundle in Mexico. Pfizer sells a TON of Viagra in Mexico and makes a fortune there, so does Bayer, Nestle, Walmart, Apple, Abercrombie, etc.
I would give my right arm to be in my 20s and have money for stock investment. I would go balls to the wall.
Gold will probably continue to go up but it doesn't really attract my interest because I am not so rich as I need to protect my capital. I suggested to my father that he did because he has some dough.

to be frank, you can throw back-testing out the window. the markets are so different than they were 10 yrs ago than they were 5 yrs ago than they were 1 yr ago.

it changes at a rapid pace. ideas that used to be able to be exploited over long periods of time will evaporate before your eyes. too many smart people with access to better information than most.

the key to making money in this environment is to own concentrated positions and be very particular about your exit strategy- whether that be a specific price, % gain or holding period.

you can be 100% right about a strategy and get killed because smart money that agreed with you bailed out early and left you holding the bag.

know the companies you want to own like you know "insert something you love". then, based on a risk/reward, opportunity cost type of model, buy only those that you really really like - even if it's only 2 or three.

then, pare down / get out when you believe they are approaching their intrinsic value.

going at this thing with the antiquated buy/hold mutual mentality will leave your portfolio with the sort of growth akin to the distance one may travel on their treadmill.

I have seen the rampant consumerism all over the world, except for some places like Switzerland. Shopping malls in the USA, in Beijing, Hong Kong, Manhattan stores, Walmarts in Mexico, Soriana in Mexico, etc. etc. People around the worldwant to consume.
Decades ago, there was no satellite or cable TV so people in Thailand, China, Vietnam could not see how much stuff the west has. They all want it and they won't stop buying.
Governments won't stop building infrastructure, so Caterpillar won't stop selling. They won't stop growing food, so Monsanto, DuPont, Deere. They won't stop swilling coke and other stuff. They won't stop eating Nestle, Danone, etc. They won't stop taking Viagra (I see it for sale in China, Mexico, etc).
They want cars, energy, healthcare, entertainment, gadgets, Apple, Abercrombie, BMW, Toyota, Ford, Honda.
This is never going to stop. If you want a little piece of this action, you get into stock mutual funds. A share in stock is a share of the profits of the company.
Ask yourself, how else will you own a piece of profits by Apple without working for them?
Downward fluctuations are your friend not your enemy until you absolutely need the money. By then, you'll be older and much richer.

I would rec this post if I could!