patrick.net

The problem is Trump is riding an historic wave of "Fuck the establishment, Fuck lobbyists, Fuck free trade" sentiment, while Hillary represents exactly all these things.

She is fighting against momentum, and she isn't exactly the type of charismatic leader that would turn things around. The only thing she has is... the establishment says she is inevitable. Well... we'll see about that.

The reality is too many people have underestimated Trump so far, and too many continue to underestimate him.

Heraclitusstudent says

Trump 41%, Clinton 39% http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections/election_2016/trump_41_clinton_39

"Trump now has the support of 73% of Republicans, while 77% of Democrats back Clinton. But Trump picks up 15% of Democrats, while just eight percent (8%) of GOP voters prefer Clinton, given this matchup. "

I saw that one and it's definitely interesting. But Rasmussen has a very poor record--see last Presidential election--so I'd like to see a few more polls that agree before giving it too much weight.

tatupu70 says

Please accept my apologies. Imitation is the sincerest form of flattery, right?

No I'm just saying I probably shouldn't be saying the things that I do.
But I do, because it's a fee county and I have a fight to.

thunderlips11 says

I heard (CBA to look it up) that 1/5th of Feel The Berners say they won't vote for Hillary under any circumstances, regardless of nomination. A vote for Jill Stein is just as good as a Trump vote.

I would think it could be more than that. A lot of Bernie backers will not vote for Clinton under any circumstances, assuming that she is the candidate. And Clinton will have to dramatically alter her platform, which I believe she will not do enough to convince anyone. I suppose some Bernie folks might vote for Trump, perhaps as an effort to bring down the system.

Likewise, I think a lot of Republican Trump despisers despise the Clintons even more, and will hold their noses and vote Trump.

It is Trump's election to win.

Let make america great again.

Blurtman says

Likewise, I think a lot of Republican Trump despisers despise the Clintons even more, and will hold their noses and vote Trump.

I think more nose holders than anyone thinks will be setting the election out.
It's the cross overs that are going to count.

Hillary is already acting desperate..

zzyzzx says

Hillary is already acting desperate..

"Bill is going to come out of retirement" She says.
"We're putting the band back together!"
Can you imagine if She wins, She isn't there to share the light with Bill.
She's selling this, but will give them that.

Will Sanders' supporters flock to Trump? Yes.

tatupu70 says

That sounds good until you realize that 40% of Republicans say they won't vote for Trump. And 20% say they will actually vote for Hillary.

Um, no. I expect at last 90% of them to vote for Trump, and close to zero to vote for Hillary.

Fixed that for ya.

zzyzzx says

Will Sanders' supporters flock to Trump? Yes.

tatupu70 says

That sounds good until you realize that 40% of Republicans say they won't vote for Trump. And 20% say they will actually vote for Hillary.

Um, no. I expect at last 90% of them to vote for Trump, and close to zero to vote for Hillary.

lol--I bet you are often surprised that your "expectations" are never realized.

Bernie Sanders is the best gift to the Republicans in over 30 years.

The only way the Republicans can win the Whitehouse is that if at least 17% of Sanders people don't vote at all in the General, then at least it's a same lever playing field.

What Bernie Sanders has done is rip the moderate Democrat thesis that the really cult like Sanders follow will feel like they can't ever vote Democrat again

We have seen this before I might add

tatupu70 says

lol--I bet you are often surprised that your "expectations" are never realized.

Yeah, Trump keeps surprising me by outperforming his poll numbers!

Logan Mohtashami says

What Bernie Sanders has done is rip the moderate Democrat thesis that the really cult like Sanders follow will feel like they can't ever vote Democrat again

You're thinking of Trump and the Republican Party.

Dan8267 says

Fixed that for ya.

The only part of that infographic that was wrong was the 2nd amendment part. I'm pretty sure that Sanders hates the idea of anyone except the government and criminals having guns, just like every other Democrat.

Dan8267 says

You're thinking of Trump and the Republican Party.

Tea Party got it's wish, they are voting for a Tea Party thesis without losing a Republican status.

Basically taking the major thing Fox or Talk Radio is bad of America and ranting about it

We haven't seen that type of reaction from Democrats, they're more sane.

Bernie people on facebook are just priceless by the way, simply priceless with their logic. The Republicans have their play book against Clinton by just taking Bernie's Point and Bernie Supporters view on Clinton.

Outside that the Republicans have no hope of winning the White House.

So, you want miracles, I give you Bernie Sanders!

Dan8267 says

Fixed that for ya.

Disagree with a few of the checks and x's, but yeah, compared to Shillary, Trump is a distant second but still far better than the Poster Child for Money in Politics

The bit about arms is total rubbish. Cannons, Tanks, Trebuchets etc. are not arms. Arms are weapons carried by individuals. I have never heard an artillery piece, attack helicopter, or carrier referred to as "arms". The "Bear" bit further illustrates the amendment speaks of individual man-portable weaponry, since you cannot bear an F-15 or Sherman Tank.

Logan Mohtashami says

We haven't seen that type of reaction from Democrats, they're more sane.

You haven't been a department store womens bathroom in a while I take it?

zzyzzx says

The only part of that infographic that was wrong was the 2nd amendment part. I'm pretty sure that Sanders hates the idea of anyone except the government and criminals having guns, just like every other Democrat.

You haven't been paying much attention, have you? Sanders is actually much more pro-guns than Trump.

Logan Mohtashami says

The only way the Republicans can win the Whitehouse is that if at least 17% of Sanders people don't vote at all in the General, then at least it's a same lever playing field.

What Bernie Sanders has done is rip the moderate Democrat thesis that the really cult like Sanders follow will feel like they can't ever vote Democrat again

Most people who rank Sanders number 1 have Trump ranked number 5 out of the remaining candidates. Those who have Sanders ranked number 1 and Trump ranked number 2 are at best 20% of Sanders's supporters. For those who disagree and live in SFBA, come down to Santa Cruz over the weekend and take a look around you.

By the way, the Sanders high tax high spend model of social democracy is inevitable and will take hold in a couple of generations if people continue to be burdened by high student loans combined with inability to find jobs that allow for normal self sufficiency. Trump will never capitalize on this angst because simply speaking people with financial difficulties will not trust the king of "You're fired."

dublin hillz says

people with financial difficulties will not trust the king of "You're fired."

Not true! So stop saying that!

Trump's beliefs are so much more important than his behavior. He loves me - wants to give me a fair shake. I can see deep into his heart, where there is only purity and goodness.

He only fires Mexicans, and he is not a hypocrite for hiring them, either, so stop saying that.

dublin hillz says

burdened by high student loans

70% of student loan debt is under 14K
3% is over 100K

Don't worry about the educated Americans in this country, they will be fine

Now 30% of Student loan debt are held by college drop outs that makes up the majority of the loans that are delinquent, that group is your trouble group

The rest are fine

Only legit change for Trump is Bernie... #FeelTheBern

Where is the data coming from Logan?

Tenpoundbass says

Where is the data coming from Logan?

Preditwise betting site they do this for a lot things

As always look for the gap to narrow and narrow closer to election but breakdown the demographic map and electoral map for the White House and know this race is a very big problem for Trump....

Unless Bernie Sanders comes to the rescue... That's

the TRUMP CARD ... pun very intended... Bernie Sanders is the best thing going for Trump in an general election ... primaries have a gap off 100 million voters so it's not such a big deal for obvious reasons.

However, the Republicans have lost 5 out of the 6 popular vote for a reason and that is with a decent demographic profile...

If it wasn't For Nader

Daddy Bush might have been the last Republican President we have seen in 50 years

I am looking for Clinton to pick Castro as a V.P.

He will be groomed for 2024

But I expect Bernie of course to run against Clinton in 2020... the economic cycle is long the tooth, not sure about now until 2020...

Castro in 2024 and 2028 will have the best demographic profile for a democratic presidential candidate in a long time

zzyzzx says

The only part of that infographic that was wrong was the 2nd amendment part. I'm pretty sure that Sanders hates the idea of anyone except the government and criminals having guns, just like every other Democrat.

The Second Amendment doesn't mention guns. It's about arms. Do you believe in the Second Amendment?

thunderlips11 says

Disagree with a few of the checks and x's,

I had to give Trump the benefit of a doubt on a few issues. He has no actual political history to confirm or deny what he says his beliefs are.

Why wouldn't Bernie supporters go to Trump?

They're the two candidates who have accomplished the least in government, and can make all sorts of promises as to what they will do without getting into budgetary specifics. They're both pure, because they haven't yet tried to get anything done in Washington, and weren't planning to anyway - they're both shocked to have gotten this far.

Like that cool uncle who tells you it's okay to make Vodka floats and build a bonfire in the living room.

Bill seems to be out of the picture most of the time. Hillary must have him on a tight leash.

look at hydro sitting in a big clinton wetspot. Give it a rest, puke

Bill stays out of the spotlight, for the same reason Hillary does. They both project a negative image. The best thing that ever happened to hillary, was Trump coming along to suck up all the attention. Had Hillary been the focal point for the media over the last couple months, she'd be dead in the water by now (her chances at presidency)

A little sunshine will kill off the mold in short order

YesYNot says

Will Sanders' supporters flock to Trump?

Who is Will Sanders?

Can we get a sneak peak of how Great America is going to be with president Trump, turtledove? ;o

#TrumpVsClinton

turtledove says

Who is Will Sanders?

Will Sanders is a french horn player, solo horn for the Bavarian Radio Symphony Orchestra in the 1990s, and solo horn at Bayreuth from '92 to '97 (an extremely demanding position, due to repeated performances of the Ring Cycle operas).

Here he is (on the right) doing some Beethoven:

www.youtube.com/embed/TQ5p-lKlsYk

There are also some YouTube clips of his solos on Dmitri "ApocalypseFuck" Shostakovich's 10th Symphony that are pretty badass.

I think so:

www.youtube.com/embed/QnTb5JDozMs

zzyzzx says

Well if the Colonel is a Trump supporter, I'm convinced.