patrick.net

Some people seem to think that Donald Trump is the 2nd coming of Ronald Reagan. They may be right, unfortunately.

Nothing like electing a proud and free-spending dimwit to make America proud again. Forget about the massive mistakes and crimes of war for the last 20 years, and get ready to sow the seeds for few more wars, just to show the world that we are NUMBER ONE! Also, don't forget that debt and deficit spending does not matter as long as you can feel proud about it!

SubOink says

Rough Election results:

- 48% didn't vote

- 26% Trump

- 26% Hillary

-26% Hillary + 2.7 million
My back of envelope ciphering came up with 140 million that didn't vote.
How many of those voted for trump? ZERO! HA!HA!HA!
LANDSLIDE! LANDSLIDE! LANDSLIDE!

SubOink says

And funny how you talk about an economic boom when the Dow has gone from 6k to 20k

The market is not indicative of a boom. More, it's indicative of the market's reluctance to take any risks with the economy, especially business creation in a United States subject to arbitrary rulings by a capricious and regulation-happy POTUS.

shows the consumer debt cycle has just crawled back up to what were recessionary levels, so there's still more boom left to go, yes.

Overall leverage is still relatively high:

so there's not going to be as much headroom this cycle.

The GOP has been throttling the economy since taking over in 2011:

gov't spending (less social security and medicare) as % of GDP

so them throwing on some fiscal expansion is certainly possible, $100B/yr or so easily.

Plus more than that in tax cuts.

I'm bullish too, but not for the bullshit reasons the OP cited.

Obama was removed as economic entity once the GOP took over the House in 2011. What followed after that was just GOP government shutdowns, fights over raising the debt limit, etc.

There will be no more fights about the debt limit, even though it will go through the roof this decade.

Funny how Breitbart isn't going to trumpet that.

annual federal deficit, 2009 dollars.

especially business creation in a United States subject to arbitrary rulings by a capricious and regulation-happy POTUS.

you've got your bullshit and you're sticking to it, I see.

Graphs can be confusing, especially to our room-temperature IQ brethren, but that one shouldn't be.

It is simply total systemic debt (not counting financial sector debt since that's double-counting) / GDP.

It shows how the great Reagan Boom was a story of debt expansion of corporations and baby boomers starting new households, and how we just borrowed ourselves out of the post dotcom recession, that continued through the Bush Boom and then bust.

Would not surprise me at all to see this start another stairstep up.

Strategist says

We will still have an economic boom. The $20 trillion is affordable, and interest rates are still low.

So what was the Republican debt ceiling fight all about in 2011?

tr6 says

So what was the Republican debt ceiling fight all about in 2011?

Setting up the 2012, 2014, and 2016 elections of course.

Throttle the economy and blame it the black guy.

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

5% inflation is lovely.

You are starting to lose you credibility. 5% interest rates are impossible without making middle class completely bankrupt.

tr6 says

So what was the Republican debt ceiling fight all about in 2011?

Probably old fashioned politics.

economic strength is measured by income and GDP not asset prices.

RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks says

economic strength is measured by income and GDP not asset prices.

How about productivity growth?
GDP to debt ratio does not matter?

You can call it a boom. I'll call it a delay to the inevitable downturn.

Additionally the deregulation coming is going to be the likely cause of the next crash. The next leg down will be far worse because of Trump-nomics, not save us from it.

tr6 says

You are starting to lose you credibility. 5% interest rates are impossible without making middle class completely bankrupt.

Very funny!

I manage my parents finances and basically bonds and CDs are no option, forcing me to be more aggressive with equities than I would like: They don't like real estate.

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

I manage my parents finances and basically bonds and CDs are no option, forcing me to be more aggressive with equities than I would like: They don't like real estate.

High dividend stocks are an option in that scenario.

"Very funny! I manage my parents finances and basically bonds and CDs are no option, forcing me to be more aggressive with equities than I would like: They don't like real estate."

Are you under the impression that their real rate of return will be higher if interest rates go up? I've seen no evidence that this is the case.

But, some real demand-pull inflation would definitely be welcome in our current debt based economy.

Ironman says

SubOink says

when the Dow has gone from 6k to 20k now

The DOW was at 14K before it became 6K, did you forget that?

SubOink says

We are 8 years into the boom

The DOW didn't get back to 14K until 2013 and had basically flat-lined since Fall 2014 (when QE ended). It just recently started climbing (Nov. 8th).

You are missing my point completely

Strategist says

High dividend stocks are an option in that scenario.

You mean like Chevron, which is trading not that far from all time high even though oil is at 52 which is a bit over 1/3 from its all time high.

chevron has done well considering the low oil price and a good dividend yield.

tr6 says

Strategist says

High dividend stocks are an option in that scenario.

You mean like Chevron, which is trading not that far from all time high even though oil is at 52 which is a bit over 1/3 from its all time high.

AT&T would be a good example too.

Oil stocks seem like a solid bet with coming expansion of domestic production and drop in OPEC production.

Quigley says

Oil stocks seem like a solid bet with coming expansion of domestic production and drop in OPEC production.

Until OPEC does what they always do. Cheat.

Well,the Right/Left,Up/Down,In/Out Economic THEOLOGIANS are busy predicting the future.
To not put geniuses on the spot,what will happen in the next four hours?
Critical thinkers step back & wait to see what happens.
Even they may fail to see a black swan.
I'm not concerned,there has never been a small down turn,recession or depression.

FINANCIALIZE EVERYTHING! Screw the environment & planet if it doesn't make me a buck.

Looks like the doubters were galactically wrong again!

SubOink says

26% of this country definitely don't have any faith in trump...and feel in despair - they definitely won't be investing any money

Generally speaking, they don't have any.

Quigley says

Looks like the doubters were galactically wrong again!

Obligatory:

Trump's approval rating is nearly 50%. That's better than the 40% Obama hovered at for years.

Quigley says

Trump's approval rating is nearly 50%. That's better than the 40% Obama hovered at for years.

Economic recovery right around the corner folks.
Whose fault is it, Zzyzzx?

I think we should concentrate on net jobs added or subtracted. Over a million jobs go away forever every single month in America! But then we add even more on most months. Technology and automation are hell for entrenched employees, with most expected to need to retrain many times. Retail especially has been hard hit lately, mostly due to technological factors and the changing ways that consumers shop. Online shopping keeps taking larger bites out of the retail industry, causing more and more outlets to fail.

In five to ten years we will start to see truckers replaced by automation, and that 3.5 million trucker workforce will also be threatened. Will that be Trump's fault?

Not to worry.
After we are assimilated by the islamic horde of refugees, we will be returned to the good old stone age where manual labor jobs are aplenty.,..

Quigley says

In five to ten years we will start to see truckers replaced by automation, and that 3.5 million trucker workforce will also be threatened. Will that be Trump's fault?

The boom is still picking up steam. Unemployment is at record lows. Trillions in offshored money returning to the USA economy. Stock market increased over 50% in the past year!

Bellingham Bill says

Obama was removed as economic entity

He didn't build that!

And the Boom continues to pick up steam!
MAGA!

BlueSardine says

islamic horde of refugees

The term "refugees" always cracks me up. They are mostly just young men looking for easy money and easy women in Northern Europe. They could get safety in Turkey, but they don't want to stay there and the Turks don't want them either.

I do suspect that the demand for such immigrants is driven largely by our own easy women who are disgusted that they get everything they demand from our own weak men -- including the mass import of violent foreign men to replace them.

Also too many obedient men, lots of these Swedish Middle Aged cat ladies WANT a man to be all dramatic and forceful with them. Sven is too kind and quiet and thoughtful.

"Baby, hold my purse while I go flirt with that hunk over there."

Only 4 quarters of Obama's tenure had better growth than this.

Heraclitusstudent says

Only 4 quarters of Obama's tenure had better growth than this.

Meh, here’s a source that puts Obama’s Presidency at the absolute TOP... of presidencies with the lowest average GDP.
https://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/07/29/ranking-the-presidents-by-g-d-p/

I know I know, the NYT, who can trust it?
1.2%! So anemic.

But wait, there’s a more up to date article:
https://www.hudson.org/research/12714-economic-growth-by-president

He’s still sucking hind tit, but his number moved up to 1.5% by the end of his presidency! Hurray! Nearly matches inflation!

Trump Presidency average so far: 2.6%!

Obama was coming back from the Greatest Recession since the Great Depression. It's more stunning how slowly the recovery happened, given the fact the government doubled it's public debt by $10T AND flooded the banks with easy money.

To put it in perspective, $10T could have paid the government budget for 3 years without taxes a few years ago.

We could have had a lavish and fully funded-in-advance Moon-to-Mars Program, rebuilt most of the Navy and Air Force, and had trillions more to spare on infrastructure and R&D and massive subsidies for exports.

Instead the money kinda just went to the banks and overseas.

Heraclitusstudent says

Only 4 quarters of Obama's tenure had better growth than this.

Out of 32 quarters.. that means 28 quarters DIDN'T hit that mark, even with an injection of $4 TRILLION of QE, ZIRP, a $787 BILLION stimulus package and adding $10 TRILLION of new debt.

See the problem yet?

Wanna tell us again how great of a President Obama was?