patrick.net

Today's lesson:

Money is a claim on an asset. One also says that money is backed by an asset.

Bitcoin is not backed by any asset at all. That is the problem. Also, bitcoin is anonymous only in some limited sense.

USD is backed by government bonds, which in turn can be viewed as a claim on the assets (land, buildings, etc) of the USG, as well as the future earnings (tax income) of the USG. The problem with USD is that more and more USD are created (in the form of reserve credits) when the FRB buys USG bonds. One cannot then help but think of USD as dropping in value as more units are created.

But like I said, bitcoin is a claim on nothing, backed by absolutely nothing. So it has no value.

By the way, zcash is supposed to be like bitcoin, but with better anonymity features.

There is also the interesting concept of the Hawala payment systems

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hawala#How_hawala_work

www.youtube.com/embed/40OuVyVGdIM

http://fortune.com/2017/11/01/bitcoin-6600-high-cme-futures/
I don't get this. I mean I get the idea of bitcoin, I just don't get this irrational pricing or at least that's the appearance from my untrained eye. The analogy to the housing crisis near the end of the article rings a little true to me though.

This just seems due for a massive pull back. But this is why I just dump money into indexed funds and don't try and time the market. It won't give me fuck you money, but I can at least retire with a good chunk.

WookieMan says

I just don't get this irrational pricing or at least that's the appearance from my untrained eye

"It's different this time"

The key element to a bubble, that leads to the crash, is that producers flood the market with supply in chase of the high prices, which in turn leads to over saturation that results in the crash.

Can bitcoin ramp up production?
Can competitors flood the market with other crypto currencies that are widely accepted , to flood the market?

If there can be Only One, and it’s Bitcoin, and demand will continue to increase outpacing supply, then the price will continue to increase.

This is also why words are important and we never had a Housing Bubble, we had a mortgage debt bubble

This is a Never Trump bubble I want no part of.

It’s just like the petro dollar, worth more because a lot of oil futures are tied up in it. Except replace oil with drugs and illegal contraband, guns, hitman contracts, and sex slaves.
The more that market uses Bitcoin, the more it’s worth!

I remember this lure I had when I was into fishing. It was called "the Super-Duper." When you reeled it in, the shiny part would catch the light ad the fish would go crazy and bite. Will, Bitcoin is like a Super=Duper and today I Bot 2 shares of GBTC at 900 and was elated to see it climb to 940 within hours, however ... at the end of the day it closed at 848 anyhoo,I lost $54. But tomorrow is another day. Jamie Diamonds daughter is still in winning territory and Jamie is wrong if he thinks the US Dollar is backed by anything. The USD used to be backed by gold. You could take your paper money and exchange $35 for one (1) ounce of gold. But no more. 1971
The Nixon shock was a series of economic measures undertaken by United States President Richard Nixon in 1971, the most significant of which was the unilateral cancellation of the direct international convertibility of the United States dollar to gold.
Nixon shock - Wikipedia
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nixon_shock
https://www.google.com/search?q=gbtc&rlz=1C1TSNP_enUS518US518&oq=gbtc&aqs=chrome.0.69i59j0l5.8772j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

the dollar is backed by the biggest military in the world plus about 10K nukes.

steady price increases lately indicate strong money laundering activities going on.

when it gets big enough the bankers & gov will kill it along with other useless clones. there will a false flag, one that bigmall will disappointingly miss: terrorist cell funded by bitcoin.

Butbutbut you don’t understand the techs!!

Bump in the road.

Fantastic buying opportunity. Big discounts! This is a healthy time of consolidation before the next bull run.

www.youtube.com/embed/UF5KZwdfq5g

anon_3a1a3 says

Fantastic buying opportunity. Big discounts! This is a healthy time of consolidation before the next bull run.

Buy now or be priced out FOREVER!!!

anonymous says

"Bump in the road".

Seems to be a pretty big bump sport...perhaps hit a pothole or two as well on the way to the bump

When people see something good selling at 40% do they whine and complain? No, they whip out their wallets and load up! Stop whining, BAO, load up! Big bump = big discount = giant opportunity!!! Cash out your 401k and go all in!!!

Bitcoin price drops below $8,000 for first time since November 24

The volatile digital asset fell as low as $7,695.10, according to Coinbase data.

The volatile digital asset fell as low as $7,695.10 on Friday according to CoinDesk, marking the first time it has fallen below the $8,000 level since November 24. CoinDesk's bitcoin price index tracks prices from digital currency exchanges Bitstamp, Coinbase, itBit and Bitfinex.

Multiple virtual currencies have dropped significantly as regulators voiced concerns about them and worries grew over suggestions that the price of bitcoin has been propped up by popular exchange Bitfinex.

A number of critics have railed against cryptocurrencies like bitcoin, citing extreme price swings and worries of dubious activities associated with the crypto world, such as money laundering.

Notably, J. P. Morgan Chief Executive Jamie Dimon called the world's largest cryptocurrency, bitcoin, a "fraud," and said that he thought it would eventually "blow up."


https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/bitcoin-price-drops-below-8000-for-first-time-since-nov-24.html

Japanese regulators raid Coincheck in wake of $530 million crypto heist.

TOKYO -- Japan's Financial Services Agency (FSA) on Friday morning carried out a raid on Coincheck, the beleaguered Tokyo cryptocurrency exchange from which hackers stole about 58 billion yen ($530 million) worth of the virtual currency NEM last week.

Some 260,000 Coincheck customers were victimized in the theft. The company has said it will reimburse them with yen, but questions have emerged about its ability to pay, as well as why it had currencies stored in a hot wallet connected to the internet and thus potentially vulnerable to thieves.

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/02/02/japanese-regulators-raid-coincheck-in-wake-of-crypto-heist.html

Looking at the coindesk charts I see 50% drop from December high for bitcoin, 25% for ethereum.

NuttBoxer says

Looking at the coindesk charts I see 50% drop from December high for bitcoin, 25% for ethereum.

What happens to the guys who bought them on their credit cards at 20%+ interest rates?

Here's another article - https://gizmodo.com/bitcoin-fell-off-a-cliff-and-no-one-knows-how-far-it-is-1822659737

Quote from the article: A visit to his accountant prompted one redditor to exclaim, “Fuck taxes man. This is so fucked it’s like I didn’t earn anything.” And it’s not just the federal government that wants its taxes; states are getting in on it, too.

This is your bitcoin investor ladies and gentleman. Well just gentleman I suppose here.

NuttBoxer says

Looking at the coindesk charts I see 50% drop from December high for bitcoin, 25% for ethereum.

Yuuuge, discount. Yuuuge!

Ha! This is how I see almost to a T.

https://www.youtube.com/embed/lQegMA_kY9Y

$8300. Down 60% from peak. Moar discount!

Sniper says

What happens to the guys who bought them on their credit cards at 20%+ interest rates?

The same thing that will happen to people using cash advances to wrecklessly pump the other stock exchanges, it becomes a self imposed margin call, only they end up with a bunch of debt and ruined finances. People who short right now, stand to do very well.

mell says

$8300. Down 60% from peak. Moar discount!

Xmas came early! Load up, kids!

I just saw a pretty good but old documentary called "The Rise and Rise of Bitcoin". Worth watching IMHO.

Imagine if a stock or currency exchange got hacked and lost half a billion dollars.

Malcolm says

Sniper says

What happens to the guys who bought them on their credit cards at 20%+ interest rates?

The same thing that will happen to people using cash advances to wrecklessly pump the other stock exchanges, it becomes a self imposed margin call, only they end up with a bunch of debt and ruined finances. People who short right now, stand to do very well.

You can short bitcoin?

CBOEtrader says

You can short bitcoin?

If you can you should. $7,400 this morning. This is totally based on gut feeling admittedly, this drops under $5k and it's done. It will go back to where it was just over a year ago. Honestly I wouldn't be surprised if it drops under 1k at some point in the next 45 days. Again, I have no technical analysis for you, but neither does anyone investing in this.

CBOEtrader says

You can short bitcoin?

I actually meant the markets in general, I am considering trying to short it, I don’t know if you can, but I would like to. I was actually going to ask the posters here.

$7500 moar discounts!!

Malcolm says

CBOEtrader says

You can short bitcoin?

I actually meant the markets in general, I am considering trying to short it, I don’t know if you can, but I would like to. I was actually going to ask the posters here.

That video I posted, while pretty funny, is 100% spot on. No one has ANY idea what they're doing with this shit. Nobody knows how/if you can short it, but they WILL tell you they can. AND they made a lot of money doing it, with zero proof.

I actually wouldn't be surprised in a year or so to find out this was currency warfare (real currencies). Just a way for a foreign government to extract dollars from idiotic Americans. Pretty smart if you ask me. If you don't have the largest military X10, then find a way to extract the money from them. Bleed them dry so to say.

Great video, Wookie.

Also I hear that Yuan-denominated Bonds are going to be issued by the Ayatollahs that will crush the dollar forever, just after the Iraqi Dinar revalues at 1:1 to the Euro.

the Dinar is STILL a thing:
http://iraqidinarchat.net

CBOEtrader says

You can short bitcoin?

No, but you can short NVIDIA.

When the value of the central bank currencies goes to zero, the value of the unique sequence of zeros and ones that make up cryptocurrencies will go to infinity,
As valued in central bank fiat currencies.

Onvacation says

the value of the unique sequence of zeros and ones that make up cryptocurrencies will go to infinity

What historical evidence do you have to support that? There are certainly assets that maintain, and even substantially increase their value in an economic collapse, but we have no proof bitcoin will be one of them. A good case study would be Venezuela, anybody taking bitcoin for powdered milk down there?

anon_3e01a says

CBOEtrader says

You can short bitcoin?

No, but you can short NVIDIA.

Actually, I have done a little research. You most definitely can short Bitcoin with a margin account at Kraken.com. You can also do so at GDAX.com, but that one is for very high net worth, like $3 million. I am thinking I might have missed this bus, but will think about it if it climbs back up.

It dropped a 1000 bucks yesterday. 6,300+ I think. What a plunge from 20k!