patrick.net

Since I have a friend who was decently deployed to Korea, I’m glad for peace. Oh and no impending nuclear doom on our Left Coast is also good for us in California. I’m sorry if that hurts your policy wonk pride or feelings. Sure NK is still an awful place with awful human rights abuses. But if Cuba is any measure, isolation just makes the situation worse. While China, with the same horrible communist past, came out of isolation and became prosperous and much improved over the bad old days of Cultural Revolution.

Giving an opponent a measure of legitimacy is the ONLY way to resolve a conflict without a fight. Trust must go both ways, and if your position is that your enemy is completely incapable of being trusted, there can be no conflict resolution beyond total war.

Nobody but Libtards want that.

Patrick says

marcus says

He also said he would pull our 28K military personal out of SK.

Woah, that's excellent if true. At least a billion dollars in savings.

I'm not qualified to know if it's a win or not. But it turns out it wasn't promised as part of this deal.

Quigley says

Nobody but Libtards want that.

Funny how it takes a right wing TrumpCuck to know what the libtards want.

I would think you could just ask 10 libtards to find out what they want, but no, more fun to lie out your ass about what they want. You know, becasue of some Bill Maker meme. Isn't it great being an American ?

Quigley says

Giving an opponent a measure of legitimacy is the ONLY way to resolve a conflict without a fight.

True. You can't really win and have peace unless you give them a bit of honor as part of the deal.

America did not totally squash Germany after WWII, and also left the emperor in nominal charge of Japan, and those worked out well.

GW Bush was both an asshole and a moron and completely destroyed the Iraqi power structure and murdered Saddam, who had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. We are still suffering the consequences. Bush should be in jail.

joshuatrio says

What am I missing? N.Korea etc...

This is what relatively neutral people are saying.

The statement, which American officials negotiated intensely with the North Koreans and had hoped would be a road map to a nuclear deal, was a page and a half of diplomatic language recycled from statements negotiated by the North over the last two decades.

It made no mention of Mr. Trump’s longstanding — supposedly nonnegotiable — demand that North Korea submit to complete, verifiable, irreversible denuclearization. It made no mention of North Korea’s missiles. It did not even set a firm date for a follow-up meeting, though the president said he would invite Mr. Kim to the White House when the time was right.

“This is what North Korea has wanted from the beginning, and I cannot believe that our side allowed it,” said Joseph Y. Yun, a former State Department official who has negotiated with the North. “I am quite simply surprised that months of negotiations produced so little.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/north-korea-summit.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

OH, but the Iran deal is TERRIBLE, just terrible.

Isn't it great being an American ?

Patrick says

Woah, that's excellent if true. At least a billion dollars in savings.

Another win.

Here's another thought, @Patrick.

The fact that these meeting even happened is a slap in the face to China. They were counting on using the North Korean issue as leverage in keeping their unfair trade practices.

Patrick says

GW Bush was both an asshole and a moron and completely destroyed the Iraqi power structure and murdered Saddam, who had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. We are still suffering the consequences. Bush should be in jail.

The Pentagon has a constantly revised plan for occupying Iraq. One of them was keeping Baa'thists in power to administer the country, at least in parts. Instead, they dropped the plan entirely on the eve of the invasion, along with the person who was supposed to run the show and had prepped for months to do so. Then they fired ALL the Baa'thists right off the bat, and they all ended up in Sunni Militias and many eventually in ISIS.

We didn't even fire all the low level Nazi party members running the Railroads and Post Offices after WW2. It would have been stupid to do so. Hell, the founder of the EU was leader of the Lawyer's Association under the Nazis.

marcus says

Obama said he'd meet with Kim without preconditions.

Trump established preconditions - suspension of all nuclear and ballistic missle tests, plus release of imprisoned Americans - that Kim met.

Just like Obama gave Iran all the cash and an end to sanctions upfront.

joshuatrio says

What am I missing? N.Korea etc...

What are we getting ?

My guess is yes, peace. The same peace we've had with NK for many decades. The same game we've played with NK for decades (except now they have nukes). I guess now we drop sanctions and turn on the money spigots ? ALthough NK gets that from China too. Is NK going to stop being a puppet of China ? Doubtful. Are they going to get us to decrease our military presence in that part of the world ? I don't know. Maybe.

Is not testing your misslies and nukes now that you know they work, denuclearizing ? I don't know. I don't think so.

I'm basically a conservative on the issue of NK. I don't want war, but as far as I could tell, the only reason we've been worried about war with NK was provocation by Trump in response to Kim's provocative tests.

Does Kim look like a big winner here, who basically got everything he wanted out of this ? I think so, yes.

Feux Follets says

Potus legitimized Kim on the world stage, something that will have far reaching and unintended consequences.

He certainly did..

Did you see when NK nuked Guam, like they threaten Trump that they were going to do?

Oh, wait.... Guam is still here...

Looks like Trump made Kim blink..

Next target Guam, North Korea says
Guam has long been a focal point of North Korea's anger against the US and is often a target of North Korean saber-rattling. It was threatened specifically by North Korea in 2013 and again earlier this month, following a fiery exchange of threats and insults between Trump and the North Korean regime.
https://www.cnn.com/2017/08/29/asia/north-korea-missile-launch-guam-threat/index.html

It was threatened specifically by North Korea in 2013 and again earlier this month, following a fiery exchange of threats and insults between Trump and the North Korean regime.

marcus says

This is what relatively neutral people are saying.

Tt months of negotiations produced so little.”

<...

marcus says

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/north-korea-summit.html?hp&action=click&pgtype=Homepage&clickSource=story-heading&module=a-lede-package-region®ion=top-news&WT.nav=top-news

Hmmmm, when did NYT become "relatively neutral"?

Did Hell freeze over?

Another very reality based analysis. It includes the positives.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/06/12/world/asia/trump-kim-meeting-interpreter.html

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

The fact that these meeting even happened is a slap in the face to China. They were counting on using the North Korean issue as leverage in keeping their unfair trade practices.

Good point. I wonder if that was a big part of The Donald's motive. If so, yet another level of winning. Let's count the wins:

1. North Korea agrees to de-nuclearize
2. We pull out 28,000 troops from Korea, saving at least $1B/year and doing the right thing.
3. China has less to power to keep us buying 5x more from them than they do from us.

Patrick says

If so, yet another level of winning. Let's count the wins:

1. North Korea agrees to de-nuclearize
2. We pull out 28,000 troops from Korea, saving at least $1B/year and doing the right thing.
3. China has less to power to keep us buying 5x more from them than they do from us.

and the yankees have won the world series already since they say they will. winning. Oh wait, They have to play the season, playoffs, and world series first. Bugger.

Patrick says

America did not totally squash Germany after WWII, and also left the emperor in nominal charge of Japan, and those worked out well.

GW Bush was both an asshole and a moron and completely destroyed the Iraqi power structure and murdered Saddam, who had absolutely nothing to do with 9/11. We are still suffering the consequences. Bush should be in jail.

Oh come on Patrick! We firebombed numerous Japanese cities killing hundreds of thousands and escalated to using nukes. Germany was completely rubbled and cut in half between the West and the USSR. We had war crime trials and executed many senior leaders in Germany and Japan. Compared to Germany and Japan, we went in with a scalpel in Iraq not inflicting a fraction of the destruction (most of the destruction was done by the insurgency after).

Most importantly - we occupied both of these countries for decades, wrote new Constitutions and still have troops there 70+ years later.

If anyone should be in jail, it should be Obama for abandoning Iraq to ISIS and chaos after less than 10 years.

Bottom line: this.
Hassan_Rouhani says

I just don't trust the fucking commie fucks. Unless these regimes are completely dismantled they will continue playing fucking games. One look at the Russian fucks is all proof you'll ever need.

when you have two professional liars negotiating, a concession is not a concession until it is actually implemented...
I put the odds of the 28k withdrawal about 500-1...

marcus says

He also said he would pull our 28K military personal out of SK.

I'm not judging it bad, but to deny it's a big concession ?

Never happen until NK truly denuclearizes.
Anything said otherwise is just smoke...

Patrick says

marcus says

He also said he would pull our 28K military personal out of SK.

Woah, that's excellent if true. At least a billion dollars in savings.

Another win.

Certainly not like the olden days...
marcus says

Isn't it great being an American ?

This is the work of a master negotiator operating in the 17th dimension...libbies will never comprehend no matter how many art degrees they accumulate...

TwoScoopsOfDragonEnergy says

The fact that these meeting even happened is a slap in the face to China. They were counting on using the North Korean issue as leverage in keeping their unfair trade practices.

How would you imagine we’d be SAVING money? We don’t fire the soldiers and they’ll still be needed, just in case NK isn’t trustworthy.

The move would actually cost more in the shorter run and you’d have to trust congress and the pentagon longer term.

Level 14 in play here. Pre-negotiation make it look to kim like trump can be his friend, as he disses kims enemies.

ThreeBays says

Is it leftist/SJW to point out how un-American Trump acted by giving the finger to western allies and then laying praise on a commie dictator war criminal?

CL says

How would you imagine we’d be SAVING money? We don’t fire the soldiers and they’ll still be needed, just in case NK isn’t trustworthy.

The move would actually cost more in the shorter run and you’d have to trust congress and the pentagon longer term.

Because the troops based in the US will be spending their money at home, helping local economies instead of overseas areas. Also, no rent or other payments to foreign governments for the permission to keep bases and related facilities.

socal2 says

Oh come on Patrick! We firebombed numerous Japanese cities killing hundreds of thousands and escalated to using nukes. Germany was completely rubbled and cut in half between the West and the USSR.

That was the war.

After the war, both Germany and Japan were treated very well and rebuilt.

Iraq, not.

Patrick says

After the war, both Germany and Japan were treated very well and rebuilt.

Iraq, not.

It’s tough to rebuild when the people of the region keep maliciously blowing up anything you build for them. Fucking Islam.

Not that it mattered. The rebuilding process was intended to benefit one constituency: the corporations which donated to W’s campaign. Remember Halliburton? Hundreds of billions in contracts in exchange for millions on the campaign trail. That’s how democracies do coalition politics!

Feux Follets says

They don't need Kim to do that.

Sorry, when you depend on hundreds of billions in exports to keep your economy going, and have no welfare system, you depend on the client, not the other way around.

Somehow people think that we didn't make most of this shit ourselves, which we did going into the 1990s.

Kind of like banking: You owe the bank some money, you have a problem. When you owe the bank a lot of money, the bank has a problem.

Tim Aurora says

Demilitarization : You mean Iran Deal. Right ? North Korea deal has no specifics.

This is the negotiation phase. BUT, unlike the Iran deal, DPRK halted all nuke and ballistic testing and released hostages prior to the negotiations.

Iran didn't give up jack shit to get the Iran Deal negotiations going.

Where is Obama, Bill Clinton, Baby Bush & Jimmy Carter?

They are pretty quiet! Maybe they haven’t heard the news about North Korea yet!

Somebody send this video to them pic.twitter.com/q3BuK3Q0gX

— Terrence K. Williams (@w_terrence) June 13, 2018

RafiMaas says

Does the US not depend on Chinese buying billions in debt? China holds north of $1,170,000,000 of US debt. Correct me if I'm wrong. Who's the client? Who's got us by the balls, China that's who.

Nope, we do not depend on the Chinese buying our debt. US Government Debt is one of the most desirable financial assets in the World and more than two thirds of long term Treasuries are held domestically.

Debt is only a problem when you are approaching default and have few options. Currently the dollar is very strong and US Treasuries are in high demand.The rest of the world owns 5x the long-term Treasuries as China, and the domestic market is many, many times China's holdings. The Federal Reserve alone has 2x the holdings of all of China in US Treasuries.



China buys US debt primarily to control the valuation of the Yuan, and to a lesser extent because of the Trade Deficit, and their unwillingness to buy American products in return leaves them with few options other than to buy Treasuries. In 2011, China dumped $200B in US Treasuries over a few days and suddenly, nothing happened - to the US Economy. China now owns less debt that it did.

Thanks to Bretton Wood, almost all world currencies are pegged to the US Dollar and buying US Treasuries is the best mechanism to stabilize and legitimize a foreign currency.

When China shifts from buying US Debt, it will only be because they are buying or investing American, or a desperate attempt to send the Yuan into free fall which would have MASSIVE Chinese Domestic consequences. Keep in mind Chinese are huge savers, all cash or real estate, and a devalued, non-dollar pegged Yuan would cause immense domestic hardship and rage. There's no welfare state in China to soften the blow, either.

RafiMaas says

What kind of statement is this? $100 billion less than there all time high .... BFD

They sold ~$200B in one swoop in 2011 and suddenly, nothing happened to the US Economy.

RafiMaas says

Wrong again. A little over 4x but who's counting... apparently me.

As of March 2018 China $1.19 T. Whole world $6.29 T
6.29-1.19= 5.1/1.19= 4.28x DNE 5x

Over 4x to 5x, not a big deal and minimal compared to domestic holdings in any case. Japan holds about as much, also. It's necessary for the world since the USD is the underpinning of the Global financial system with no immediate rival. There are multi-decade contracts for trillions upon trillions for everything from Oil/Gas to Corporate Bonds to Long Term Commodity Contracts that are USD denominated. If China dumps US Teasuries - which because of the varying maturity is more likely to hurt them really bad - others will benefit. And hundreds of millions of Chinese who save 25% of their income in cash and real estate will scream bloody murder as a huge chunk of their lifetime of savings is obliterated overnight - and blame their own Government.

BTW, if China does this, a proportionate tariff to at compensate for the lost value of the Yuan will beat the shit out of China, that would be rocked by massive unemployment and savings destruction on top of that. That'll teach 'em, while creating tons of new domestic jobs.

RafiMaas says

What if the rest of the world sides with China?

Sides to do what? To what end? Over what spat? What kind of fantasy it this anyway?

RafiMaas says

but nobody holds as much as China. What if the rest of the world sides with China? Trump really has only one (or does he have two now) true friend in the rest of the world, Putin.

Japan holds almost as much. I believe the difference between China and Japan is a few tenths of a percent.

RafiMaas says

How much debt is Russia holding?

Miniscule, relative to either China or Japan, and certainly relative to the overall ownership rate. Be surprised if it was more than 1% at the very best.

Interesting document: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PRC-Central-Committee-document-translation-revised.pdf

Well it has always been suspected of being the case.
Of course we all have to trust that the translator does not have an agenda, or take mavis beacon's online courses and do the word associations ourselves...

Hassan_Rouhani says

Interesting document: http://freebeacon.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/PRC-Central-Committee-document-translation-revised.pdf

fuck i meant rosettas stoned...

This response did not age well.

You can pretty much guess Rubin's take.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/right-turn/wp/2018/06/12/how-trump-lost-the-summit-before-the-photographers-even-left-the-room/?utm_term=.2005f9bf07ce

Neither Trump nor the GOP ever make mistakes. Let's face it, it's another YUGE victory for TRump just like the tax cuts. Count your chickens people before they've hatched with Trump, every time. The guys a winner. If you question the intelligence of what he does, you're an SJW faggot. This is exactly as the founding fathers intended.

It's so easy to see through those vapid libtard morons. They act like they are analyzing reality, like they're some kind of analytical wonks but we all know the truth. That is they hate Trump. We know that everything Trump does is awesome and brilliant and beyond criticism. He never does things just for the optics, just for the "win." He's playing the long game.

All the analysts criticism is just becasue it's Trump and they hate him because they envy him. THere is no such thing as a legitimate criticism of anything Trump does. Criticism of Trump is the very definition of fake news. Actually it's treason, and if there were justice in this world all those that are critical of Trump would be tortured or worse.