patrick.net

HeadSet, I think that is a real problem. The American car makers are now playing catchup because they grossly miscalculated what was going to happen. They are almost as incompetent as the bankers who inflated the housing bubble after being warned. I think what we will see is more small startups of American car makers like Aptera who will operate a lean manufacturing environment and unfortunately we will see the eventual demise of the big three.

The reason is that energy efficiency ins un-cool and un-manly and does not fit into their testosterone-pandering marketing scheme. They will take short-term profit over doing the right thing ANY time.

What are you talking about?

Energy efficiency is a matter of economy. Please do not attach ethical value to it.

All the oil unnecessary wasted in the last 15 years makes me truly ill.

The oil was paid for. Enough said.

Malcolm,

I agree, Prius is a great car. But the diesel does nearly as wellwithout the battery, and that is a BIG deal relative to cost and mass manufacturing. And as we saw, let us combine the two and get even better. I love the synergism of new engine technology and new hybrid+battery technology.

Diesel shortage and cost? There is no fundamental reason it should be like this. Just refine more diesel and less gas. Less work even for the refiners, they do not need the "cracker" units to break uop the heavy oil into gasoline-compatible molecule sizes. The current price differential has a lot to do with refining capacity and product mix, I'm pretty sure it is a solvable problem.

I think that image is changing quickly Justme. I don't know anyone who is saying that stuff anymore. It is mainly males who seem to think the new technologies are cool. Ironically it is the wives of people that I find to be the hardest sell when the topic comes up at a dinner. They love their Explorers and Excursions and as long as the guy is paying the gas bill they don't find the gas prices to be that inconvenient. In fact they wonder what all the fuss is about. :)

I need this answered before I will consider a hybrid vehicle:

1. What is the environmental cost of building the batteries
2. What is the environmental cost of recycling the batteries

I think I'm in agreement with you. I sure wouldn't bet against your prediction. All things being equal you could sell me on it. Like I said, as the secondary source of power I don't believe I really care what it is, I just want it to be clean.

Peter P,

You know damn well that "energy efficiency ins un-cool and un-manly" is not MY position. I find it to be very cool and very manly.

You can lecture all you want about "not attaching ethical value to economic matters". I don't care except to counteract the effect you may have on impressionable young children.

Peter, given the cost of ownership it is much lower to use batteries than buying gasoline the batteries clearly win environmentally. You build a battery, it does its thing, you have to constantly produce gasoline. That right there is a win for electric.

Recycling them is even better. When you research the subject I think you will find that the electrolyte has no environmental impact, and you can just reuse the casings.

The only argument that has any substance is the method of producing the electricity. It is a tradeoff, but I for one am on solar, and charging at night doesn't take any more capacity than daytime energy needs so to me it is a moot point. I put back what I would use by producing clean solar power for the grid during the day.

The Housing Bill is being blocked because of an alternative energy bill:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/marketsNewsUS/idUKN2547060320080625?pageNumber=2

Alternative energy is not OT after all. :)

Anyway, both bills are terrible.

Headset,

Taxicabs: I see a lot of Prius cars used for cabs around the world these days. But something bigger like and Accord Diesel or Taurus or IMpala could also make a dent in that market.

I'm worried, though, that Detroit is going to pervert the concept and build muscle-diesels much as they have built muscle-hybrid-SUV and the like of it. Detroit (and even Japan) has never seen a n ew technology that they can resist perverting into more testosterone.

Cabs are getting smaller. The good idling efficiency of diesel is also good for cabs, police cars and other service vehicles that end to idle extensively.

Malcolm, solar is going to be big. It is big in the Bay Area. I personally know two people working in that industry.

If gas does fall to $3/gal, I'm thinking that a tax should added to raise the price right back up. After a spell of paying $4+/gal, Americans will think $3/gal is an outright bargain and will opt right back to low mileage vehicles.
That is was what happened after the last oil shock. SUV was just a way to get around CAFE.

The un-cool un-manly image that the billybobs keep throwing out has come so full a circle that people that talk like that actually look like idiots. I hate to stoop but objectively I just don't see it. I think the reason why is that the new generations (even of the prius) no longer look like little wimpy cars. How idiotic does it look to go broke driving a Suburban but still knocking your neighbor for driving an Insight? As early adopters, people should expect some criticism but when you know you are right, it is fun to just watch atitudes change on their own.

Peter P Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 11:06 am
"Malcolm, solar is going to be big. It is big in the Bay Area. I personally know two people working in that industry."

You actually know three.

Malcolm,

About the demographic of the Ford Extinction crowd:

I'm afraid you may be right. There is a lot of women who are now addicted to the testosterone-appeal of these cars. Very sad. I could speculate on the deeper psychological and sociological reasons for this fact, but that might turn into a whole other thread.

I share the fear Headset. I think this is a window for people to shift their habbits once and for all. Electrics and hybrids in full production will be so compelling on their own that I can't imagine people wanting to shift back. I imagine that we will see big muscle hybrids, I'm not sure that even bothers me.

I don't even want to open that box because I actually feel we have had a gender role reversal in this country. Women were traditionally the moral compass keeping their men in check and now I meet more and more gen x and y men who seem very enlightened. I don't know if it a generation thing, a California thing, a current political shift, but I know what I am seeing over and over.

Don't get me wrong there are plenty of girls who dig the environmental point of view, but the ones in influencial social circles seem to be the late adopters.

Headset,

You're right, gas *should* be $4/gal.

We can tax it to get there if need be, This will get Peter P's Panties in a twist, but ask me if I care.

My longtime girlfriend seems to really like the image she conveys driving her Prius. She also seems to generate respect in her circles by what I'm doing with my life so maybe it is a subset of women.

Malcolm,

Interesting that the hybrid and advanced diesel is coming out now. It is as if the foreigners predicted the higher US gas prices and saw a way to capture US market share. After all, high gas prices have been the norm in Europe for quite a while, and they coped by building small cars/engines. When I was in England during the mid 90s, it was not uncommon to see cars with sporting a "1.0 Litre" badge..

$4? Premium was at 4.99.

I know a year ago or so I predicted prices would drop with an economic slowdown. I have to say that prediction was wrong but probably irrelevant since those who actually want to take control of their wellbeing are going to make the switch and it will not even matter.

I still think if we really do slowdown there will be a short term glut of oil in production. I believe that the handwriting is on the wall and like any typical industry they are just maxing out the revenues while they can. The world is going to be very different starting next year.

The timing is what is killing our car makers because predicting hybrid market share was counterintuitive.
That's the reward of doing what's right instead of merely following and guessing market trends. Everyone here is richer for not following the housing trend up, and that's what happened in the auto industry. That's why the billybobs will always live a backwards life with a poor quality of life.

I'm glad I checked the blog today. I've been working a lot but today I have a headache so I'm going in later.

ShortTermCapitalMgmt,

Those are big electric performance motorcycles. Have not seen them. But I can tell you that China is full of small moped-meets-bycycle-sized electrical cycles, Little ones that will get you around town in a very effective manner. Nice to see.

Malcolm,

I'm with you on the gender role thing. Let's just leave it at that for now.

Regarding the cleanliness diesels, "true believers" will tell you:
Other references show that at the very worst, exhaust from engines with DPFs are indistinguishable from the intake air in terms of PM numbers (http://www.aecc.be/en/content/pdf/AECC%20Newsletter%20March-April%202007.pdf, “Report on Ultrafine Particles”, page 7).

Sorry about the UCSD/SDSU mix up. In fact, when I first read about it years ago, I distinctly remember being impressed that these were folks within the State University system.

The oil was paid for.
It certainly was!
Have to admit I started getting excited hearing Amory Lovins talking about how the military has converted to using "the fully burdened cost of fuel" when calculating expenditures for military vehicles. The times they are a-changin'...

I was kidding on the SDSU thing though I am proud of them. I had a really good experience with their business program.

I think

"The oil was borrowed for"

might be a more correct expression, than

"The oil was paid for".

You’re right, gas *should* be $4/gal.

Your rent *should* be $4000/month.

I would guess the problem with an automotive diesel/electric hybrid is that it takes a lot more to start up a diesel engine than an otto engine. Most of the hybrid's efficiency comes from turning the gas engine off when not required and using regenerative braking.

Diesel/electric drives in locomotives and on subs don't shut the diesel off frequently.

Why, because I'm wasting so much space and not preserving it for future generations? Wrong!

The future generation will have their own economic equilibrium. Why do we have to preserve anything (other than jam) for them?

Malcom,

GM ripped out this country's public transportation network, and you called that doing things right? In case you don't know, they killed their own electric car too.

GM is a perfect example of a greedy and incompetently run company that I hope will go belly up as soon as possible, taking its idiot management and dumb workers along please.

It's a miracle that the Big 3s are not yet gone, I can hardly find any reason to buy an American branded vehicle. The other day when I read about GM's revival of 0 interest for 6 years, the deal-seeking part of me immediately went to their website to check out the cars to see if the price can justify. While I kept scrolling through their cars, I was saying to myself, crap, crap, crap, hmm, Saab, crapified, crap... I am a very easy consumer to convince because I am very price sensitive and I can let the deal overcome my preference, somehow I still cannot possibly bring myself to buy any GM vehicle.

How about a Cadillac CTS?

http://www.iihs.org/ratings/ratingsbyseries.aspx?id=309

Looks pretty safe.

A very, very unfortunate Supreme Court decision:

http://www.csmonitor.com/2008/0626/p01s10-usju.html

It is beneficial to bring back the moral compass. Let's start by restricting no-fault divorces.

Enforcing private contracts *IS* the government's responsibility.

OO, I totally agree with you which is why I am confused about me ever saying they did anything right. Perhaps you are reading where I wrote it was unfortunate and interpreted it to mean that I am a fan. What I meant, and is clear in the overall context, is that it is unfortunate that it is the foreign car makers who have provided the solutions. I'm not anti American which is the only reason I think it is a shame. I am actually happy to see these small American startups springing up. I think it is going to be a good thing.
I am of course well aware of the EV1, ironically as I was driving in after posting earlier, I was thinking about the stories of people being forced to give their EV1s back under protest. How that wasn't a sign of market sentiment is beyond me. Even that very limited experiment generated large fanfare.

TOB, I guess Eve got them off to a bad start. :)

I guess there are many angles but for some reason modern day professional women seem to have a need to show that they can be just as sleezy as their boomer male role models.

ShortTermCapitalMgmt Says:
June 25th, 2008 at 10:22 am
"Malcolm,
Do you know anything about these electric cycles?"

I got sidetracked and didn't mean to not reply. I don't know much about them. During the EV1 days when electric car ranges were unacceptably short I did look into EV motorcycles only because their size did allow about 100+ mile range and they were about $25,000. I'm the kind of guy who looks for anything viable and then looks further to see if I can use it in a practical manner. I am not a fan of street motorcycles but if someone is I think they present a very good option.