The coming economic boom!
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The coming economic boom!

By Quigley following x   2016 Dec 14, 3:33pm 13,379 views   41 comments   watch   quote     share  


With the election of Donald J. Trump, the coming recession has been cancelled! Prepare now for a major economic boom as the nation roars back to economic life. Companies and individuals feel confident in investing in America once again, reassured by the incoming President that he wants to make America a business friendly country. Even before he has taken office he has taken steps to encourage companies to stay in the USA and create jobs. Taken as a total package, Trump's plan for the economy is a royal flush and markets are responding.

I'm calling it now. Boom economy starts next year!

Some reference material: http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2016/12/14/trump-boom-companies-vow-tens-thousands-us-jobs-trump-win/

#investing

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2 anotheraccount   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 14, 9:36pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Mark D says

time for a real recovery which begins immediately the day useless leaves the w-house.

people and companies have been hoarding cash? they don't have faith in Obama.

You forgot about 20T in debt and interest rates that just rose 110 basis points in the last 5 months.

3 Strategist   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 7:44am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

tr6 says

You forgot about 20T in debt and interest rates that just rose 110 basis points in the last 5 months.

We will still have an economic boom. The $20 trillion is affordable, and interest rates are still low.

4 Quigley   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 11:46am   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

The more we boom, the less the debt matters. We might just get some good old fashioned inflation out of it too!

5 TwoScoopsMcGee   ignore (1)   2016 Dec 15, 12:50pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

5% inflation is lovely. Enough to kept debt writers on their toes, and a little to help the debtors claw their way out. It's also a sign of real growth that is widespread and not just confined to the top 10%.

6 SubOink   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 12:56pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Mark D says

people and companies have been hoarding cash? they don't have faith in Obama.

26% of this country definitely don't have any faith in trump...and feel in despair - they definitely won't be investing any money

7 Quigley   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 1:28pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

26% of this country definitely don't have any faith in trump...

Not sure where you're getting that number, but I suspect that's the percentage that doesn't matter. If they're poor folks then they don't have any money to invest anyway. If they're rich folks, then they're the ones who are pissed off because their wealth depends on outsourcing and H1B labor. We want these folks to be discouraged! If they stop competing as a result, that favors companies who invest in America.

8 SubOink   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 1:49pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Quigley says

Not sure where you're getting that number

Rough Election results:

- 48% didn't vote
- 26% Trump
- 26% Hillary

So you have 26% excited about trump...everyone else - meh! Basically the other way around then in the last 8 years.

And funny how you talk about an economic boom when the Dow has gone from 6k to 20k now...unemplyment 10% to 4.6%...15million some jobs created...etc etc...

But now we are starting a boom? Good morning!! We are 8 years into the boom..(not saying it can't continue but its funny to me how the trump campers now all of a sudden call it a boom...

One would think you can't *uck that up...we will find out soon...

9 justme   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 1:55pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Some people seem to think that Donald Trump is the 2nd coming of Ronald Reagan. They may be right, unfortunately.

Nothing like electing a proud and free-spending dimwit to make America proud again. Forget about the massive mistakes and crimes of war for the last 20 years, and get ready to sow the seeds for few more wars, just to show the world that we are NUMBER ONE! Also, don't forget that debt and deficit spending does not matter as long as you can feel proud about it!

10 HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2016 Dec 15, 3:03pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

Rough Election results:

- 48% didn't vote

- 26% Trump

- 26% Hillary

-26% Hillary + 2.7 million
My back of envelope ciphering came up with 140 million that didn't vote.
How many of those voted for trump? ZERO! HA!HA!HA!
LANDSLIDE! LANDSLIDE! LANDSLIDE!

11 Quigley   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 7:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

And funny how you talk about an economic boom when the Dow has gone from 6k to 20k

The market is not indicative of a boom. More, it's indicative of the market's reluctance to take any risks with the economy, especially business creation in a United States subject to arbitrary rulings by a capricious and regulation-happy POTUS.

12 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2016 Dec 15, 8:25pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

shows the consumer debt cycle has just crawled back up to what were recessionary levels, so there's still more boom left to go, yes.

Overall leverage is still relatively high:

so there's not going to be as much headroom this cycle.

The GOP has been throttling the economy since taking over in 2011:

gov't spending (less social security and medicare) as % of GDP

so them throwing on some fiscal expansion is certainly possible, $100B/yr or so easily.

Plus more than that in tax cuts.

I'm bullish too, but not for the bullshit reasons the OP cited.

Obama was removed as economic entity once the GOP took over the House in 2011. What followed after that was just GOP government shutdowns, fights over raising the debt limit, etc.

There will be no more fights about the debt limit, even though it will go through the roof this decade.

Funny how Breitbart isn't going to trumpet that.

annual federal deficit, 2009 dollars.

13 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2016 Dec 15, 8:27pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

especially business creation in a United States subject to arbitrary rulings by a capricious and regulation-happy POTUS.

you've got your bullshit and you're sticking to it, I see.

14 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2016 Dec 15, 8:39pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Graphs can be confusing, especially to our room-temperature IQ brethren, but that one shouldn't be.

It is simply total systemic debt (not counting financial sector debt since that's double-counting) / GDP.

It shows how the great Reagan Boom was a story of debt expansion of corporations and baby boomers starting new households, and how we just borrowed ourselves out of the post dotcom recession, that continued through the Bush Boom and then bust.

Would not surprise me at all to see this start another stairstep up.

15 anotheraccount   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 8:39pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Strategist says

We will still have an economic boom. The $20 trillion is affordable, and interest rates are still low.

So what was the Republican debt ceiling fight all about in 2011?

16 Bellingham Bill   ignore (5)   2016 Dec 15, 8:40pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

tr6 says

So what was the Republican debt ceiling fight all about in 2011?

Setting up the 2012, 2014, and 2016 elections of course.

Throttle the economy and blame it the black guy.

17 anotheraccount   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 8:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

5% inflation is lovely.

You are starting to lose you credibility. 5% interest rates are impossible without making middle class completely bankrupt.

18 Strategist   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 8:55pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

tr6 says

So what was the Republican debt ceiling fight all about in 2011?

Probably old fashioned politics.

19 RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 9:07pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

economic strength is measured by income and GDP not asset prices.

20 anotheraccount   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 15, 9:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks says

economic strength is measured by income and GDP not asset prices.

How about productivity growth?
GDP to debt ratio does not matter?

21 Rew   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 16, 12:15am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

You can call it a boom. I'll call it a delay to the inevitable downturn.

Additionally the deregulation coming is going to be the likely cause of the next crash. The next leg down will be far worse because of Trump-nomics, not save us from it.

22 TwoScoopsMcGee   ignore (1)   2016 Dec 16, 8:42am   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

tr6 says

You are starting to lose you credibility. 5% interest rates are impossible without making middle class completely bankrupt.

Very funny!

I manage my parents finances and basically bonds and CDs are no option, forcing me to be more aggressive with equities than I would like: They don't like real estate.

23 Strategist   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 16, 8:54am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Thunderlips is Tovbot2 says

I manage my parents finances and basically bonds and CDs are no option, forcing me to be more aggressive with equities than I would like: They don't like real estate.

High dividend stocks are an option in that scenario.

24 joeyjojojunior   ignore (1)   2016 Dec 16, 8:58am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

"Very funny! I manage my parents finances and basically bonds and CDs are no option, forcing me to be more aggressive with equities than I would like: They don't like real estate."

Are you under the impression that their real rate of return will be higher if interest rates go up? I've seen no evidence that this is the case.

But, some real demand-pull inflation would definitely be welcome in our current debt based economy.

25 SubOink   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 16, 10:34pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Ironman says

SubOink says

when the Dow has gone from 6k to 20k now

The DOW was at 14K before it became 6K, did you forget that?

SubOink says

We are 8 years into the boom

The DOW didn't get back to 14K until 2013 and had basically flat-lined since Fall 2014 (when QE ended). It just recently started climbing (Nov. 8th).

You are missing my point completely

26 anotheraccount   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 16, 10:42pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Strategist says

High dividend stocks are an option in that scenario.

You mean like Chevron, which is trading not that far from all time high even though oil is at 52 which is a bit over 1/3 from its all time high.

27 RealEstateIsBetterThanStocks   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 16, 11:58pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

chevron has done well considering the low oil price and a good dividend yield.

28 NuttBoxer   ignore (1)   2016 Dec 19, 10:27am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

This is just the last rush to lure as many suckers in as possible before lowering the boom. Are people really this gullible!? Where's iwog with his logical(for once) anti-Trump views.

29 Strategist   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 19, 10:29am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

tr6 says

Strategist says

High dividend stocks are an option in that scenario.

You mean like Chevron, which is trading not that far from all time high even though oil is at 52 which is a bit over 1/3 from its all time high.

AT&T would be a good example too.

30 Quigley   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 19, 11:42am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Oil stocks seem like a solid bet with coming expansion of domestic production and drop in OPEC production.

31 Strategist   ignore (0)   2016 Dec 19, 11:49am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Quigley says

Oil stocks seem like a solid bet with coming expansion of domestic production and drop in OPEC production.

Until OPEC does what they always do. Cheat.

32 HEY YOU   ignore (7)   2016 Dec 19, 12:16pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Well,the Right/Left,Up/Down,In/Out Economic THEOLOGIANS are busy predicting the future.
To not put geniuses on the spot,what will happen in the next four hours?
Critical thinkers step back & wait to see what happens.
Even they may fail to see a black swan.
I'm not concerned,there has never been a small down turn,recession or depression.

FINANCIALIZE EVERYTHING! Screw the environment & planet if it doesn't make me a buck.

33 Quigley   ignore (0)   2017 Mar 8, 1:59pm   ↑ like (3)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Looks like the doubters were galactically wrong again!

34 APOCALYPSEFUCK_is_ADORABLE   ignore (5)   2017 Mar 8, 2:32pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Trillions of fugitive cash from the PRC, Russia and Central Asia will end up being laundered here!

Any garage in Stockton will be valued at 11x the GDP of Finland by this time next year.

35 zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2017 Mar 8, 3:28pm   ↑ like (1)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

SubOink says

26% of this country definitely don't have any faith in trump...and feel in despair - they definitely won't be investing any money

Generally speaking, they don't have any.

36 zzyzzx   ignore (1)   2017 Mar 8, 3:28pm   ↑ like (2)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Quigley says

Looks like the doubters were galactically wrong again!

Obligatory:

37 Quigley   ignore (0)   2017 Mar 8, 4:26pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Trump's approval rating is nearly 50%. That's better than the 40% Obama hovered at for years.

38 Strategist   ignore (0)   2017 Mar 8, 4:29pm   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Quigley says

Trump's approval rating is nearly 50%. That's better than the 40% Obama hovered at for years.

Economic recovery right around the corner folks.
Whose fault is it, Zzyzzx?

39 BayAreaObserver   ignore (1)   2017 Jul 15, 2:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

Thought it might be fun to bump this thread and see what everyone thinks now. Yes, we're only 6.5 months or so into the new administration however gridlock and dysfunction still has a stranglehold on congress so seeing anything in the line of legislation that might actually help doesn't seem to be in the cards for the near term.

Auto industry is stalling, wages barely doing anything, retail failing with state and local budgets in trouble, gas prices are down - yes but with that comes a shortfall in tax revenue as well.

Then you have headlines like this in states that went GOP. Thousands laid off at 38 Pa. companies in first half of 2017 In the first six months, more than 30 companies in Pennsylvania have announced major layoffs through the WARN (the Worker Adjustment and Retraining Notification) Act. WARN notices were issued in the midstate in the Harrisburg, Lewisberry, Middletown, Carlisle, York, Lancaster and Mechanicsburg areas. The list below also includes WARN notices that were issued throughout Pennsylvania.

http://www.pennlive.com/business-news/index.ssf/2017/07/warn.html

Promise of tax cuts ? U.S. deficits to jump $248 billion over next two years due to tax shortfall The budget deficit for President Donald Trump's first two years in office will be nearly $250 billion higher than initially estimated due to a shortfall in tax collections and a mistake in projecting military healthcare costs, budget chief Mick Mulvaney reported on Friday.

http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-trump-deficit-idUSKBN19Z2I3

Are we still looking for a boom or more of a dull thud ?

40 Quigley   ignore (0)   2017 Jul 15, 4:00am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (0)     quote        

I think we should concentrate on net jobs added or subtracted. Over a million jobs go away forever every single month in America! But then we add even more on most months. Technology and automation are hell for entrenched employees, with most expected to need to retrain many times. Retail especially has been hard hit lately, mostly due to technological factors and the changing ways that consumers shop. Online shopping keeps taking larger bites out of the retail industry, causing more and more outlets to fail.

In five to ten years we will start to see truckers replaced by automation, and that 3.5 million trucker workforce will also be threatened. Will that be Trump's fault?

41 BlueSardine   ignore (1)   2017 Jul 15, 4:55am   ↑ like (0)   ↓ dislike (1)     quote        

Not to worry.
After we are assimilated by the islamic horde of refugees, we will be returned to the good old stone age where manual labor jobs are aplenty.,..

Quigley says

In five to ten years we will start to see truckers replaced by automation, and that 3.5 million trucker workforce will also be threatened. Will that be Trump's fault?

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