patrick.net

There will be a boon to the economy & house prices will sky rocket when the banks finally foreclose & evict these deadbeats. lol

Please recall that in the last go round, Obama made a troubling strategic move, in that he prioritized payment of the marketable US Treasuries ahead of payment of the special US Treasuries in which the Social Security surplus is invested in (the SS Trust Fund, if you will). This is a ridiculous thing to do from a financial perspective. Keep in mind that the US Treasury calculates the return on these special Treasuries, and that the risk of these special Treasuries should have shot through the roof upon Obama's pronouncement. At least in a fair world they would have. Want to bet that the US Treasury made no such adjustment?

In general, Obama undermines the special Treasuries by insisting we pay of the investors in the marketable US Treasuries before we pay the investors in the special US Treasuries. If he is to pull the senior panic card, he better also pull the Chinese investor panic card, too.

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Agreed. It is all nonsense. There is no greater time to buy in our lifetime
than today. This threat of shadow inventory has always been overblown and at
this point I believe it was all a lie. No one really lost their house. Everyone
is flush with cash and gold, even the McD's workers are buying 1m+ homes. This
country is awesome

Lets try and unpack what part of your response was sarcasm, and what part was legitimate. As I noted, in post #9:

CDon says

that's not to say that housing couldn't tank for other more pressing reasons,
such as the govt shutdown. But again, for these shadow inventory stories, what
more is there to explain?

As I said then and as I say now, going forward, when is the shadow inventory (and only the shadow inventory) going to matter? When can we put the threat of shadow inventory (and only the "threat of shadow inventory") on the pile of nonsensical BS that is best to ignore?

tatupu70 says

Are you comparing appreciation only in housing to appreciation in stocks? That's not the correct comparison, IMO. You HAVE to add the rental cost that you paid to get closer to apples to apples. Once those costs are added, I think housing as an investment looks favorable assuming a relatively long time horizon (to make up for the transaction costs)

This statement makes no sense to me. Please explain. You disagree with several leading economists who have focused their life work on investments and the things on which people spend money. Robert Shiller, for one.

As if the mortgage were the only cost.

Agree that mortgage payment is far from the only cost of buying a house. Not sure if you were responding to my post or just the thread in general, but the reason I wrote that I'd buy in a second if I saw those numbers is that the relative difference looked big enough to make buying better.

Of course I was also thinking those numbers in exactly the place I want to live. I'm not so desperate to buy a house that I'll ruin years of my life by living just anywhere I can afford a house.

The truth is that housing can go up 30% in the next 1-3 years or it can fall 30% in the next 1-3 years or it can fall 50%, absolutely nobody can predict this because it depends on a HUGE number of factors that are changing on a day to day basis. Housing has become extremely speculative and volatile in the last decade and that brings with it huge unpredictable swings in either direction.

Wonder what his district looks like.

Ah, rural.

He won with no opposition in 2010, but it'd probably be easy for the Tea Party to primary him out, like they did to Lugar next door.

FunTime says

This statement makes no sense to me. Please explain. You disagree with several leading economists who have focused their life work on investments and the things on which people spend money. Robert Shiller, for one.

I'm not sure what is unclear, but my point is simply that the real comparison is buy vs. rent. If you come out ahead on that basis, then investing in a house beats investing the money in the stock market (and renting). Good rent vs. buy calculators take opportunity cost into account so they will tell you if renting and investing in the stock market is better.

The BA is an unusual case, to be sure, but I'd still say owning beats renting for the VAST majority of houses with a 20+ year time horizon.

But perhaps the biggest "secret" is that putting your money in the stock market has almost always been a better deal than putting your money into a house.

but you do have to live somewhere...

Can we all read the Barclay opinion from 2001, and then 2004, and then 2007, and then 2010, and then 2013? I think that might be some cool graph data from one of you graph-data-masters. For me, if they were wrong 3/5 of the time, then their opinion should be weighted 3/5.

Why are you guys celebrating this? I thought everyone here was against war on drugs...

No pun intended.

MershedPerturders says

Bitcoin is not controlled by banks, it's controlled by whomever has the money to purchase hashing power. It's the dumbest thing since the Dutch Tulip Mania.

It's also so untraceable that when somebody steals it you can't even prove you had the money in the first place.

I don't care: Klinton sold the Lincoln bedroom, and the arrogant Obama has disrespected veterans by closing a war memorial.

ASSHOLES!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Thursday, October 3, 2013 __ Level is 95.8

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes indeed, go here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

bgamall4 says

You are getting weird. There is only one man between the government operating and not operating. That man is John Boehner. There are the votes in the House to get the government going again. Boehner is holding the House and the hostage.

Uh, Boehner is trying to cut spending and taxes, as Reagan would do.

Therefore, Boehner need not obey the Constitution or any other constraint of the American political system. Since conservatives are not succeeding using elections and playing by the rules, it's time to junk the system.

The system is only good insofar as conservatives win.

bgamall4 says

Ah, the Republicans already did that and the Democrats approved the Ryan budget for 2014.

I don't care about facts.

Whether or not taxes and spending have been cut in the past is not relevant. By definition, taxes must be cut more.

If we have just one more set of tax and spending cuts, the economy will turn around, and growth will blossom.

Then we will be able to cut taxes and spending some more!

Maybe someone should say: I know what you want, you want this! and then at that moment the doors swing open and in rolls a huge, 5 ton Tea Pot with about 5,000 gallons of sweet tea which then pours all over the floor making a big sticky mess. Then the person who delivered it would say" There's your tea party! ha ha ha!

This chart allows the recent Dow day to be judged in the context of the long term Dow, which is commonly omitted because it is SO instructive.

Ah, good ol' Indiana. This is the reason me and all of my high school classmates with IQ over 90 left the state as soon as we could...

sbh says

The limiting factor is the amount of $ the Koch brothers are willing to expend in order to fund the "grassroot" sod of the Tea Party.

The KBs don't want the gov to default on their asses.
But how much control do they have on their beast?

Once they unleash it, it's hard to bring it back.

I drove through Indiana when I was a teenager. It to me was sort of like Ohio: a whole lot of nothing. It had to be about the most boring state I've ever been to.

bgamall4 says

egads101 says

I'd say the people who dropped low are the ones threatening the economy...

The biggest threat to the economy are the banks. They are pumping housing bubbles to give the illusion of wealth to people whose wages are decreasing. It is a massive scam.

Banks can't do that without low interest rates created by QE and fed bond buying.

So what you are really saying is that the federal government is the biggest threat to the economy. Which I agree with.

HydroCabron says

Uh, Boehner is trying to cut spending and taxes, as Reagan would do.

revisionist history once again. Reagan only cut taxes, not spending. Were you not aware of where the first 4 trillion dollars of debt came from?

bob2356 says

HydroCabron says

Uh, Boehner is trying to cut spending and taxes, as Reagan would do.

revisionist history once again. Reagan only cut taxes, not spending. Were you not aware of where the first 4 trillion dollars of debt came from?

We are living in the end times, so I think you may live to regret these thoughts.

There is ample proof that God had more than one son, and that His second one was given unto us to assume the Presidency in 1981. Heed these words, ignorant liberal: what Reagan said and believed probably came from on high!

bob2356 says

HydroCabron says

Uh, Boehner is trying to cut spending and taxes, as Reagan would do.

revisionist history once again. Reagan only cut taxes, not spending. Were you not aware of where the first 4 trillion dollars of debt came from?

Not possible.

Reagan would never have done that. That would have been a doctrinal deviation.

sbh says

We'll see if the Koch brothers let him keep his job.

The Kock brothers also need to grow a pair. Again, no pun intended.

I betbgamall4 says

HydroCabron says

Not possible.

Reagan would never have done that. That would have been a doctrinal deviation.

But that is what happened....so what do you mean?

I bet you believe that Bush's tax cuts didn't generate an economic boom either, and that Saddam didn't have WMD.

You probably don't even remember John Wayne and Reagan, fighting the Japs at Tarawa!

Politicians are puppets. TBTF are the Puppet Masters.

http://www.youtube.com/embed/7TgNCoVmziQ

Boehner is a traitor to the Patriotic,Conservative,Small Govt., Supply Side,Tea Party controlled,Ted Cruz led Republican Party.

Ohio,recall him now before he destroys all Right Wing Nuts.
Recall all those that cast treasonous votes for an increase in the debt ceiling. Hope furloughed Reps are enjoying no income.

Call it Crazy says

Checks will go out because they will have over 40 Million seniors pissed as hell, as well as all those senior's kids.... There won't be enough bullet proof walls for Obama and congress to hide behind if they piss off that group.

I'm pretty sure there are many old baggers farts out there who are all in favor of NOT raising the debt ceiling without even realizing that this could affect their SS checks.

Wouldn't a tax cut for the ranger fix this?

Fuck that tea-tard. He was trying to grandstand and run into a real American, as opposed to his sorry excuse showing for a human being.

It's O.K. - When the Smithsonian reopens, they'll have another extinct animal they can put on display.

What do you have against syphilitic rats to punish them like that?

That face would require at least two weeks of heavy marinade.

I think he was demanding that the ranger marinade his face with muff if she wants her paycheck back.

During the first seven years of his political career, from 2003 to February 2010, he has raised $6.4 million, most of these funds coming from the oil and gas, real estate, commercial banking and crop production/processing industries, and leadership PACs.[28][29] His largest corporate and association donors have been the National Auto Dealers Association, National Association of Home Builders, Quantum Energy Partners, the National Beer Wholesalers Association and the National Association of Realtors.[30]

You can't expect too much from anybody sponsored by banking and real estate ;)

PCGyver says

Al Gore and put SS in a "lock box"

How about mandatory personal 401K retirement accounts instead...
had everyone converted to a personal retirement account, there wouldnt
be any SS Govt debt...or Lock Box... would there ? you would know exactly how much
you had banked away.. and the Govt didnt have any claim to it...

you can therefore put into stock index or buy US treasuries if you like.. or keep
it all in cash.. without any risk.

Call it Crazy says

Yeah, I heard the same scare tactics about the S.S. checks the last debt ceiling debate, and the one before that, and the one before that, yada, yada, yada..

Did the S.S. checks stop those last times??? Didn't think so....

LOL! so right...

You are all wrong damn it, shadow inventories, zombie inventories, vampire inventories just means it's October and Halloween is just around the corner, now if you don't mind, I need a Monster drink

http://ts1.mm.bing.net/th?id=H.5018520088413432&w=152&h=186&c=7&rs=1&pid=1.7