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anonymous says

Five Reasons a Scary, Viral Chart Is Misleading—and One Reason It’s Bullish -
By Todd Bliman, 02/13/2014

Exactly--you can't compare the two time periods by looking at point gains/drops. You either have to look at percentage change or inflation adjust it.

Bigsby says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

E-man says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

All RED today except for Gold and Uranium. Just the way I predicted it would be. Get used to this pattern or die!

I just woke up, turned on the TV, and saw all green. Did you make the wrong bet and lose money again?

RED baby. Maybe your TV needs adjustment. It happens on old picture tubes.

You're like our resident oracle. Everything you say.... the opposite comes true.

Good thing I always bet on the opposite. ;)

sbh says

RentingForHalfTheCost says

Dude, I am only 14 years old.

That explains why your gun shoots blanks.

At least try to be funny or antagonizing with your insults. That one's just stupid.

anonymous says

Five Reasons a Scary, Viral Chart Is Misleading—and One Reason It’s Bullish - By Todd Bliman, 02/13/2014

A sensational chart comparing the movement of the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the period 1928 - 1929 and the period 2012 – Present. Viewers are to believe the same pattern is developing—implying a great crash looms. Frightening! But I’d suggest there is a different, more accurate description: misleading. And for more than just one reason—here are five. What’s more, after you weigh the five reasons I believe this chart’s purported predictiveness is malarkey, I’ll discuss the real takeaway: This whole episode actually seems much more bullish than bearish.

This author's analysis is not without its own flaws.

1) The author is complaining the magnitude scales are not the same. So what. If you listen to the same song at different volumes ITS STILL THE SAME SONG.

2) The start times are arbitrary. Again so what? Does the author expect the data to match perfectly? Again with the music analogy a tribute song may not match the original exactly either but ITS STILL THE SAME SONG.

3) Now the author is complaining the DJIA is a flawed index and that the SP500 is a better gauge.

The author claims the similarity between the 1920s and modern day disappears when looking a the SP500. He may not see the similarities but I do.

ITS STILL THE SAME SONG. Maybe a modern hip hop dance version of an old jazz favorite but its still got the same beat.

4) Past performance isn’t indicative of future results. This I agree with, however I'd also say history does tend to repeat itself, especially when the mistakes of the past have not been learned.

5) The author points out such a comparison can be run with any time period. Again that's like saying you can compare any song to any other song in your collection, they may not sound the same or they might be identical. So what?

The author then claims the serious perception of this chart is a reason the market will remain bullish. Maybe so, not all remixes are true to the original tracks.

That said this one has been shadowing the original since it was first identified back in November:

bgamall4 says

Bigsby says

You think you are the 'elect.' Everyone else thinks you are deranged.

The election is done by God, not by a vote of unbelievers. You prove nothing.

And what exactly do you think you've proved? That you are a master of wishful thinking?

And personally, I rather doubt someone who spends his time pissing on the memories of dead children will be up for election to anything.

bgamall4 says

Bigsby says

And what exactly do you think you've proved?

I don't have to prove anything to you. That is the beauty of it. You will find out, but you won't want to lose your freedom that way. But there will be nothing you can do about it.

There's no beauty to that. It's purely ignorance and self delusion on your part.

And didn't you admit to adultery on here? You must be very nervous...

I wanna hear what our RE shills have to say about this. Especially with the news that Wells is getting back into subprime.

Roberta, I know you're reading this you buffoon. Come back and tell daddy how we "bears" are wrong.

Well, if there is/was a bunch of shadow inventory, now would probably be as good a time as ever to unload them and grab more.

anonymous says

“I guess WSJ journalists can no longer be bothered to do some simple math before writing an article. The 1920s chart (on the left) shows the index growing from 200 to 375 (+88%) over 18 months. The 2013 chart (on the right) shows the index growing from 12,500 to 16,000 (+28%) over 18 months. Just so Mr. Hulbert is not confused, I will point out that 88% is greater than 28%. The charts appear to be similar only due to the scaling of the vertical axis.”

Stock prices may or may not be overvalued, but this bogus chart tells us nothing. Seriously, why this is worthy of discussion?

The point of discussion isn't the amplitude but the pattern.

New Renter says

The point of discussion isn't the amplitude but the pattern.

Because both time periods are somewhat noisy lines with a positive slope?

Holy crap. Stop the presses!

New Renter says

anonymous says

“I guess WSJ journalists can no longer be bothered to do some simple math before writing an article. The 1920s chart (on the left) shows the index growing from 200 to 375 (+88%) over 18 months. The 2013 chart (on the right) shows the index growing from 12,500 to 16,000 (+28%) over 18 months. Just so Mr. Hulbert is not confused, I will point out that 88% is greater than 28%. The charts appear to be similar only due to the scaling of the vertical axis.”

Stock prices may or may not be overvalued, but this bogus chart tells us nothing. Seriously, why this is worthy of discussion?

The point of discussion isn't the amplitude but the pattern.

The point is to get suckers to sell so that investors can buy at a discount.

tatupu70 says

Exactly--you can't compare the two time periods by looking at point gains/drops. You either have to look at percentage change or inflation adjust it.

You mean percentage as in the percentage of the total DOW value? That makes no sense to me. Even bears wouldn't expect the DOW to crash to zero. Seems to me we should be looking at the dollar amount of the gain/fall, adjusted for inflation. I would say the chart posted by anonymous is nonsense.

Homeboy says

You mean percentage as in the percentage of the total DOW value? That makes no
sense to me. Even bears wouldn't expect the DOW to crash to zero.

I'm not sure what you are saying. What does going to zero have to do with it?

Bubbabear says

Mark D says

foreclosures have to to rise 10 times for prices to go back to 2009-2010.

have fun waiting.

It's fun watching R.E. cheerleaders tout damage control...

Not as much fun as watching you continue to run away from your early 2013 call, as fast as your little legs can carry you:

Bubbabear says

California Housing Prices Falling MoM and QoQ

If you buy a house now in California, you’ll will sustain irrecoverable losses.

It's all Obama's fault!!!

The banks are in this to make money. Why wouldn't they wait until they could make more money on a sale to start unloading some foreclosure inventory? They're running a business, not a charity. And clearly our government enabled them to proceed with such a plan. Sucks for the rest of us, but it is the way it is. The banks ain't losing money. If it happens to benefit the current homeowners, well that's just coincidental. If it benefited the banks to hurt the current homeowners, I have no doubt that's the way this would have played out.

I am sure these are all flips gone bad!

If parents threatened them with homelessness all of a sudden they would "find" 2 minimum wage jobs to pay the rent.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

but you can't stuff your cock into cell phone.

thomaswong.1986 can. He's dick is micro-usb size.

I can't live more than 2 minutes without committing a heinous satanically-inspired financial crime.

Fuck you peasants.

tatupu70 says

I'm not sure what you are saying. What does going to zero have to do with it?

If you had to climb the stairs up 50% of a building, would you rather climb 50% of a one-story building, or 50% of a 100-story building?

I am reading that gold is going to go down to at least $700.00 maybe $250.00

The main reason is that we are in deflation NOT inflation.

Commoditiy prices are going down which is affecting countries like Australia. Gold is not just money it is a commodity.

Japan, Germany, US, China are all going to or are going through a demographic decline.

Call it Crazy says

When asked about the things they couldn't live without, 20 percent said they could not live without sex.

I am part of the 20%

Obligatory:

Only 14%???

zzyzzx says

Obligatory:

After a steamy round of sexting, put on vibrate, insert, and ask sexting partner to phone you over and over again.

The Onion Proposed the Dodge Ream, a car you can fuck.

Why do smart phones lack the proper receptacles and protuberances to fulfill ALL of our needs?

A lot of parents don't seem to mind if their children turn into big, swollen, spoiled parasites.

It seems a lot of parents, after raising them, spend the rest of their lives bribing them to stick around, or following them from place to place.

That's what I call Darwinian narcissism run amok.

El HydroCabron says

The Onion Proposed the Dodge Ream, a car you can fuck.

Why do smart phones lack the proper receptacles and protuberances to fulfill ALL of our needs?

I think AF has a flame thrower that goes 20 feet on his, but its a one-shot.

CrazyMan says

Do you know how many times you can shoot yourself with a nail gun before dying?

He was actually trying to commit suicide with duct tape. It didn't work until he used the nail gun to hold the duct tape in place.

Call it Crazy says

indigenous says

I am reading that gold is going to go down to at least $700.00 maybe $250.00

Then why has it been going UP for the last month and a half??

Got me, we are definetly in a deflationary period.

indigenous says

I am reading that gold is going to go down to at least $700.00 maybe $250.00

The main reason is that we are in deflation NOT inflation.

Commoditiy prices are going down which is affecting countries like Australia. Gold is not just money it is a commodity.

Japan, Germany, US, China are all going to or are going through a demographic decline.

I would LOVE some deflation.

Who doesn't want a new Porsche 911 for $20,000, or a mansion in New York or Beverly Hills for $100,000?

Homeboy says

tatupu70 says

I'm not sure what you are saying. What does going to zero have to do with it?

If you had to climb the stairs up 50% of a building, would you rather climb 50% of a one-story building, or 50% of a 100-story building?

In the 18 months leading up to the 1929 crash the DJIA jumped from 200 to 375 a change of +88%, then crashing back down to about 200. In the 18 months previous to now the DJIA has climbed from 12500 to 16000, a change of +28% following roughly the same pattern as the DJIA leading up to the 1929 crash. The trend was identified in November and has tracked - roughly - the 1929 pattern from then till now.

IF the DJIA were to follow the trend it would drop to 12500ish, not to zero.

Call it Crazy says

indigenous says

I am reading that gold is going to go down to at least $700.00 maybe $250.00

Then why has it been going UP for the last month and a half??

Because everyone hates cash.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Robber Baron Elite Scum says

I can't live more than 2 minutes without committing a heinous satanically-inspired financial crime.

Fuck you peasants.

Right, because who'd fuck you, anyway, ASSHOLE!

This is who:

+

Call it Crazy says

Mark D says

foreclosures have to to rise 10 times for prices to go back to 2009-2010.

have fun waiting.

With the current low inventory situation, it won't take a high percentage of foreclosures to come on the market to drag down prices....

but foreclosures lead to higher level of inventory.

you are still incorrect regardless. prices cannot go down with this level of inventory.

Oh, and Karen, your computer wife, has nothing to do with it.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

stuff your cock into cell phone.

You can stuff your cock into a flesh light, view your partner on a virtual sex download and get it all the time....I call it safe sex!

New Renter says

In the 18 months leading up to the 1929 crash the DJIA jumped from 200 to 375 a change of +88%, then crashing back down to about 200. In the 18 months previous to now the DJIA has climbed from 12500 to 16000, a change of +28% following roughly the same pattern as the DJIA leading up to the 1929 crash. The trend was identified in November and has tracked - roughly - the 1929 pattern from then till now.

IF the DJIA were to follow the trend it would drop to 12500ish, not to zero.

Exactly. In the early 20th Century, a rise of only 175 represented 88% of the DOW's value, as you say. Since the DOW is currently above 16,000, a huge runup represents a smaller percentage of that total number, yet it is still a huge runup. And 200 was just the first bounce; the DOW crashed all the way to 41 in the 1930s, I believe.