patrick.net

Indiana Jones says

A cycle where homeowners are not selling, some because of their underwater status, but more so because there is nothing to buy if they do sell? They are scared to sell because who knows when and if they will find another home to move up to?

It's a like a momentum stock. Nobody wants to sell because it's going up so fast. When the momentum changes, it goes really fast the other way.

I would guess one of the biggest factors that's supporting bay area prices right now is the rise of bay area momentum stocks (FB, Twitter, SPLK). It feels a lot like 1999 or maybe early 2000.

tr6 says

I would guess one of the biggest factors that's supporting bay area prices right now is the rise of bay area momentum stocks (FB, Twitter, SPLK). It feels a lot like 1999 or maybe early 2000.

I would agree except this time a lot of the economic and jobs growth (i.e., stock price for the last 1 to 5 years, etc.) are driven by tech companies with earnings. I am talking Facebook, Google, Yahoo, and even Linkedin.

I looked at Zillow's median housing price chart for the center of Silicon Valley - San Jose. Back in December 2005, the median housing price was $690,000. Now, 8 years and 3 months later, the price is around $650,000.

From what I remember after the housing crash, I recall a lot of CNBC and other financial talking heads saying that it would take no more than 9 to 11 years on average for the major housing centers like Los Angeles and Miami to return to their mid-2000's peak price levels. So if prices doubled from 2000 to 2005. Then by 2015, the prices return to 2005 levels. Hence, the average annual price gain is about 5% from 2000 to 2015.

I would be happy with even a 3% annual price appreciation on my property.

dodgerfanjohn says

The same phenomenon has occurred many times and much more harshly than is currently the case. The "science" purported in the media in the 90's was mostly false...the warming was more due to solar cycles than anything else. So now it's labeled climate change...with no conclusive evidence that man made causes are accelerating that change.

Look you can spout off science all you want, but without reasonably conclusive proof from untainted sources, all you really are doing is proliferating fairy tale propaganda.

Current CO2 levels over the past one-hundred years are a significant anomoly compared to the ice core data of warm periods during the last 650,000 years. (To say this very plain spoken : amount of CO2 we see now way higher than when we had major warm period in Earth's history before.)

If this is "fairy tale propaganda" what is it aimed at achieving? Who is spreading it? What do they want to accomplish? And ... where is your proof in it?

adarmiento says

I am talking Facebook, Google, Yahoo, and even Linkedin.

PE ratios:
Facebook: 104
Yahoo: 31
Linked: 928
Google: 33

I know these are trailing, but still these are pretty high valuations. Also if you look at revenues/market cap, it looks even worse.

tr6 says

I know these are trailing, but still these are pretty high valuations. Also if you look at revenues/market cap, it looks even worse.

I agree tr6. But I am saying the current circumstances are a lot better as far as earnings as compared to the dot com bubble of 1999 (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dot-com_bubble). Think Garden.com (symbol: GDEN, http://www.nasdaq.com/markets/ipos/company/garden-com-inc-3563-4571) and Sock Puppet (Pets.com) for starters
.

tr6, the tech companies that are driving jobs growth are showing earnings. That is why I think the next downturn will not be a burst like it was over the period 2000-2002. I suspect there will be more consolidations/acquisitions with smaller successful companies getting bought up around the next down turn.

adarmiento says

tr6 says

I would guess one of the biggest factors that's supporting bay area prices right now is the rise of bay area momentum stocks (FB, Twitter, SPLK). It feels a lot like 1999 or maybe early 2000.

I would agree except this time a lot of the economic and jobs growth (i.e., stock price for the last 1 to 5 years, etc.) are driven by tech companies with earnings. I am talking Facebook, Google, Yahoo, and even Linkedin.

Agree with both of you. Chindians are not the one that are supporting the market - they make sensational stories though. I went to a few show houses just to gauge the crowd. Surprisingly, still crowded and fairly multi-racial (Chinese, Indians, Persians, Europeans, Americans, etc).

hanera says

Agree with both of you. Chindians are not the one that are supporting the market - they make sensational stories though.

What is the major job growth areas in Silicon Valley? They are tech and engineering related. What percentage of top 50 engineering school graduates are Asians (i.e., Chindians, Asian Americans, etc.) ? I would safely say at least 50% for engineering grad school graduates. Hence, that is why I would expect at least 35% of those you observed during the San Jose home showings to be "Chindians". It is just simple statistics based on demographic trends.

adarmiento says

ence, that is why I would expect at least 35% of those you observed during the San Jose home sh

Chindins refers to foreign buyers, not residents and citizens who happen to be asian.

signed,

Gary, aged 53⁄4

Rew says

Current CO2 levels over the past one-hundred years are a significant anomoly compared to the ice core data of warm periods during the last 650,000 years. (To say this very plain spoken : amount of CO2 we see now way higher than when we had major warm period in Earth's history before.)

Want to post something to back this up or is it just because I said so.

turtledove says

And there you have it. My money is on pipelines as the reason for this particular shindig.

It's about money? No, say it ain't so. Shocking. Who in the world would have thought that? Apparently not the idiots at fox or the msm.

And gmo are bad and non acidic water cures cancer.

Blurtman says

Why, if George W. Bush were president today, he'd quickly checkmate Putin by invading Mozambique.

Good one.

bob2356 says

Rew says

Current CO2 levels over the past one-hundred years are a significant anomoly compared to the ice core data of warm periods during the last 650,000 years. (To say this very plain spoken : amount of CO2 we see now way higher than when we had major warm period in Earth's history before.)

Want to post something to back this up or is it just because I said so.

How about NOAA and NASA?
http://climate.nasa.gov/evidence

The overwhelming majority of the scientific community believes humans have had a large impact in current climate makeup, climate change is real, and will have significant impacts on life for humans on Earth.

You can either listen to the people studying the Earth, climate, and the science of the world, or not.

Even walls are gold plated, while poor are struggling to feed their kids, and old are struggling on minimum wage just to barely survive.

Tim Aurora says

Indiana Jones says

uestion: Isn't this a vicious cycle? A cycle where homeowners are not selling, some because of their underwater status, but more so because there is nothing to buy if they do sell? They are scared to sell because who knows when and if they will find another home to move up to? So then everyone ends up staying put

Exactly opposite of 5 years ago, when people could not move up as they could not sell their exsisting house

The way to break this cycle is simple, build more houses.

bgamall4 says

Bigsby says

signed,

Gary, aged 53⁄4

So Bigsby, I have been around even longer than that. There is no movement in the world ever, that could lead America to WW3 and nuclear destruction. There is simply no comparison to Zionism and the NWO.

I bet they forwarded your piece of childish nonsense around the office for a good laugh. Either that or sent it straight to the trash can.

FortWayne says

Even walls are gold plated, while poor are struggling to feed their kids, and old are struggling on minimum wage just to barely survive.

Powerful people in nice room shocker.

bgamall4 says

Well, Jewish Americans are telling crazed Democratic senators to back off Iran and let the peace process work. Maybe you need to take that advice as well.

And what has that got to do with you sending that piece of childish nonsense to Israel Today? What exactly do you think their response to that would be? Seriously, it's embarrassing that an adult sent a letter like that. And you post it up on here as if you are proud of it!

Sorry, It's too late we've already taken over the world and there is nothing you can do about it because we are too smart for all you goyim. We faked so many things like Sandy Hook and the only person who figured it out is bgmall4 but everyone thinks he's bat shit crazy so they don't listen to him.
Take care,
Zionists (Jews)

bgamall4 says

Maybe Israel's plan is for a nuclear war between the US and Russia, hoping that no missiles are pointed at them and they can pick up the peaces? Is that really where they are in their thinking? I hope not, but sometimes it seems that way.

Do you just make up shit for fun or do you actually believe the guff you post up on here?

bgamall4 says

Moderate Infidel says

Sorry, It's too late we've already taken over the world and there is nothing you can do about it because we are too smart for all you goyim.

You must be reading the Talmud. But that is for another discussion. Actually, Zionism reaches far beyond Israeli borders and the most powerful Zionists likely live in the UK and the USA. And many of them are "goyim".

Damn you're too smart for us. Please don't let the rest of the sheeple know the facts by posting it on a blog very few people read.
Forever yours,
Zionists (Jews)

This seems like a poorly disguised book promotion. I think you'd have better luck with that on a site populated with mostly conspiracy theorists.

bob2356 says

It's about money? No, say it ain't so. Shocking. Who in the world would have thought that? Apparently not the idiots at fox or the msm.

Why can't they just come out and say, "we have an interest in something of yours... we aren't confident that you will promote that interest... we want to ensure that our interests are fully protected?" They don't because it would make them look like they're greedy powermongers. But if they can show that they are just helping people free themselves from their oppressors, now they are heroes.

TV doesn't help. The entire West wants everything they do to read like a Hollywood movie, where the heroes save the people from the villains... the tremendous pipeline infrastructure located in the Ukraine that just happens to provide Western Europe with its natural gas is incidental.

This seems familiar, somehow....

Rew says

believes humans have had a large impact in current climate makeup

Bingo - there IS the key word ... BELIEVE. Proof? Well, there is this and we think it is causing that. There is that and we think it's causing this - which leads us to BELIEVE. Sorry, to me there is too much evidence (and that is all we have to go on) that the climate has changed to one extreme and then the other, for me to put as much blame on humans as y'all do - sorry, doesn't pass the smell test to me.

Bigsby says

Do you just make up shit for fun or do you actually believe the guff you post
up on here?

I am seriously concerned that this man gets up every morning, looks in the mirror and starts his various and numerous conspiracy theories the moment his eyes focus. Literally, a boogie man around every corner and nothing is ever, or ever will be as it seems.

mmmarvel says

Bigsby says

Do you just make up shit for fun or do you actually believe the guff you post

up on here?

I am seriously concerned that this man gets up every morning, looks in the mirror and starts his various and numerous conspiracy theories the moment his eyes focus. Literally, a boogie man around every corner and nothing is ever, or ever will be as it seems.

It's what sad lonely people do to give themselves a feeling of importance and a mission in life otherwise he would be out committing hate crimes in a physical way rather than his current way by not so cleverly disguised racist verbal rantings. Everyone needs a hobby.

New Renter says

Tim Aurora says

Indiana Jones says

uestion: Isn't this a vicious cycle? A cycle where homeowners are not selling, some because of their underwater status, but more so because there is nothing to buy if they do sell? They are scared to sell because who knows when and if they will find another home to move up to? So then everyone ends up staying put

Exactly opposite of 5 years ago, when people could not move up as they could not sell their exsisting house

The way to break this cycle is simple, build more houses.

But home building is not happening in most of the inner SF Bay Area. If it ever does, it seems far off down the road. And moving away is not an option.

Is building more the only way out of the cycle? Isn't there some unsustainability mark at some point? Where the cycle reaches an apex and starts to descend again? Or are we going to end up with majorly unaffordable property except for the very wealthy (Or for those already in the game?

mmmarvel says

Well, there is this and we think it is causing that. There is that and we think it's causing this - which leads us to BELIEVE

In that case there isn't proof of anything in science in any field.

bob2356 says

In that case there isn't proof of anything in science in any field.

Well, not unless it passes mmmarvel's smell test, I guess.

Facts don't matter. People believe what they *want* to believe. Then they cherry-pick the information that confirms those beliefs and ignore any conflicting information.

"Don't confuse me with facts, my mind is made up."

mmmarvel says

Bingo - there IS the key word ... BELIEVE. Proof? Well, there is this and we think it is causing that. There is that and we think it's causing this - which leads us to BELIEVE. Sorry, to me there is too much evidence (and that is all we have to go on) that the climate has changed to one extreme and then the other, for me to put as much blame on humans as y'all do - sorry, doesn't pass the smell test to me.

I wish I had a nickle for every Scientific anecdote I've heard over the years, that were later refuted, embellished our just out right scraped as being wrong, and a new undisputed fact to describe it from henceforth was issued.

I'd be a man rich enough to buy a right wing media conglomerate and be a pariah to the MSNBC viewership.

Even the drought non sense from just last month that fortold there would be no turning point for it, that this is it, and we're in fullbore global warming. Brace your selves! Here it come's... Oh it burns! It burns! Aiyeeeeeee... wft... what's this? Raindrops!!!!

NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!!!

freak80 says

Facts don't matter. People believe what they *want* to believe.

Very true. Although if their life or the life of a loved one was on the line, I'm sure they'd side with the 97% of experts.

rooemoore says

Although if their life or the life of a loved one was on the line, I'm sure they'd side with the 97% of experts.

Are you fucking nuts! Have you seen the current lot calling them selves experts?

Isn't Ben Bernanke suppose to be an expert at something?

Blurtman says

Has Russia killed 100,000 women and children in the invasion of Crimea? No.

They have killed way more in previous invasions.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_war_crimes

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_war_crimes#Soviet_Union_perpetrated_crimes

Indiana Jones says

But home building is not happening in most of the inner SF Bay Area.

It's happening somewhat. Every available space that can be approved by a planning commission is being filled with single family houses, townhomes, or condos, from what I see. We still have too many restrictions, however, and these artificial distortions are at least a large portion of why housing is expensive.

Also, local governments tend to snag massive fees, so even new housing is more expensive than it should be. I believe the estimate for one of the massive condo buildings in SF was $140K/unit. That's a hell of a lot of money.

tr6 says

I would guess one of the biggest factors that's supporting bay area prices right now is the rise of bay area momentum stocks (FB, Twitter, SPLK). It feels a lot like 1999 or maybe early 2000.

Don't forget P.

Even so, the tech bubble this time around doesn't seem as democratic as last time. Rank and file employees had far more stock last time around, and the shares are far more concentrated in founders, VCs, and limited key personnel this time around. It's not everyone and their cousin this time; it's more like everyone's cousin who happens to be a key SVP. Even for something like Facebook, a lot of the rank and file people got decent down payments, but they aren't driving these all-cash transactions.

CaptainShuddup says

rooemoore says

Although if their life or the life of a loved one was on the line, I'm sure they'd side with the 97% of experts.

Are you fucking nuts! Have you seen the current lot calling them selves experts?

Isn't Ben Bernanke suppose to be an expert at something?

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CaptainShuddup says

I'd be a man rich enough to buy a right wing media conglomerate and be a pariah to the MSNBC viewership.

I doubt you could get a large starbucks coffee.