patrick.net

How the hell do you predict what is going to happen with the number of transactions that occur in just one day. 7 billion times, what 10, 70 billion transactions per day times 365 x 10. No one organization can control that and that is where the trouble starts.

What is real is what is agreed is real. The crazy guy sees a pink elephant, he is crazy as no one else sees it. How do you predict that people are going to be willing to spend a years wages on a tulip bulb or 4 times that on a shack in the right zip code.

That is why bonds are the best predictor of the future as that is what is agreed to happen by investors. Money is just an agreement that something is valuable. One day you have the agreement and one day the agreement is different.

I don't how someone like Nate Silvers does his thing but even he says predictions are hard especially about the future.

myob says

only Goldman Sachs has a perfect trading history,

Actually not even GS, only Virtu ;)

mell says

1) Deflation is not bad

2) Your graph doesn't address the question

1. Unemployment is bad. Deflation leads to unemployment. Therefore, deflation is bad.
2. The graph absolutely addresses the question of booms/busts. If you can't see that, you need to look again.

mell says

3) But hey, I am not the one saying that 2008 was SO ZOMG BAD that they had to bailout the TBTFs and buffets of the world because other wise the worst depression evah would have devoured the whole world. So by that token 2008 was so pretty much unprecedentedly bad that the biggest bailout (heist) in history HAD to be enacted. So yes, the Fed et. al. caused the worst depression ever ;) Nobody says it's only the Fed, but they are certainly not helping main street.

Speaking of not addressing the question. I'm not even sure what you're trying to say here.

When I look at this type of work, I see it as damn near a 24-7 occupation. Mish sends out 2 reports a day 7 days a week.

The point is it hard work, much harder than digging ditches. It is based on methodology, logic, past experience, consuming a lot of information, and again hard work.

Buffet said that he used to read a half dozen newspapers front to back every day. And even he would be history if not for uncle Ben.

I can't count the times I sold a stock at a local maximum that lasted for a while or forever so far, I also post stocks that I like once in a while, some of them doubled in a short time, haven't we all ;)

tatupu70 says

1. Unemployment is bad. Deflation leads to unemployment. Therefore, deflation is bad.

This is an interesting statement, and it's partly true, partly false.

In an economy with a market valued currency, deflation is itself not detrimental to employment levels. All it means is that goods get cheaper over time as productivity increases, so it helps savers, and investors and companies adjust their books accordingly. It rewards saving to spend vs borrowing to spend, but the economy finds a balance regardless.

We don't have a market based currency system, so deflation leads to unemployment because it is a symptom of deleveraging. The financial system ends up being borrowed short, and lent long and so it's subject to liquidity crises. Even when there isn't a crisis, fluctuations can destroy companies running at extremely high leverage ratios. In such an environment, mid-size businesses face a margin squeeze, as they have price-sensitive customers, but COGS are going up due to inflation (COGS tend to go up bottom up - first on things that come out of the ground, then the next stage, and up). This is what hurts employment. The fundamental problem is leverage driven insolvency, with a coating of bailout moral hazard which results in this being a widespread problem. Without bailouts and without such high reserve ratios, deflation isn't much of a problem _in an economy that's adjusted to it_.

When Mish and others talk about deflation not hurting, they're describing the first world that I mentioned. That's the one I'd prefer to be in. I don't think there's a way of getting to it without short term misery and pain as the leverage unwinds or the dollar collapses, but it's where we will end up eventually, irrespective of Fed action. Timeline? No idea. The dollar can't survive too many more bubbles of increasing amplitude.

Ok Barney but I still want you to keep the one bullet in your pocket.

myob says

In an economy with a market valued currency, deflation is itself not detrimental to employment levels.

Not sure what you mean here. Fiat currency is market valued.

myob says

All it means is that goods get cheaper over time as productivity increases, so it helps savers, and investors and companies adjust their books accordingly. It rewards saving to spend vs borrowing to spend, but the economy finds a balance regardless.

That's one cause of deflation. We see it in electronics typically, but not many other places.

myob says

We don't have a market based currency system, so deflation leads to unemployment because it is a symptom of deleveraging

It has nothing to do with fiat or hard currency. Deflation typically occurs when demand falls--and that lack of demand could be caused by many factors: inequality, lack of confidence, etc.

myob says

This is what hurts employment. The fundamental problem is leverage driven insolvency, with a coating of bailout moral hazard which results in this being a widespread problem. Without bailouts and without such high reserve ratios, deflation isn't much of a problem _in an economy that's adjusted to it_.

Couldn't disagree with this any more strongly. Moral hazard is completely overblown as I've shown many times. And if everyone is getting bailed out, how does it cause unemployment??

The problem is lack of demand. And right now inequality is the cause.

myob says

When Mish and others talk about deflation not hurting, they're describing the first world that I mentioned. That's the one I'd prefer to be in. I don't think there's a way of getting to it without short term misery and pain as the leverage unwinds or the dollar collapses, but it's where we will end up eventually, irrespective of Fed action. Timeline? No idea. The dollar can't survive too many more bubbles of increasing amplitude.

They're describing a fantasy world that has never and likely will never exist. Productivity gains are at the expense of workers and drive inequality. This, in turn, leads to less demand. It has nothing to do with currency and/or the Fed.

"That's just inconvenient. Bunkerville wants them out."

Jeezers. I'd be calling the nat guard and local law in if I was a resident. A careful resident might be able to film a lot of the stops as evidence of detainment, breach of privacy, or if they go looking in a vehicle, unwarranted search.

They are going to go down pretty quick from here I think. Crazy.

Yes bring it on, this administration could use a good ole fashioned Ruby Ridge.

I still suspect this is a made-up or at least based on overblown facts. All the other stories about this from the MSM have been the same. All an attempt to sway the public opinion away from the ranchers and to the government's side. Why should I believe this?

I don't know why the Democrats just don't get someone like Anderson Cooper to interview them. One of them are bound to slip up and mention they don't like colored or gay folk. Then the Twitterverse will descend on them with a vengeance.

Those bullets are no match for a disparaging hash tag.

If there are guys stopping cars driving around that's wrong and illegal. Even cops need a probable cause or a traffic violation to stop you.

Yahoo of course is a suspect source for news.

To most people the biggest "story" is the rancher said some things that others perceived as racist.

The real story is that BLM was a bully, but media will make the rancher the story.

Having beliefs that someone calls "racist" is your right and there are some laws against things you may do but your thoughts and speech are yours.

rooemoore says

In other words, we don't have a real crime yet.

I'm sure we are at least breaking traffic laws at this point, and as soon as someone complains formally, it's going to be an ultra-strong false imprisonment case ... because it IS false imprisonment.

Even if a victim of a crime doesn't report it, a crime still occurred.

Quigley says

2) setting up a checkpoint isn't illegal, I think.

It absolutely is.

Every driver should set up a nest in their backseat, complete with cokes, tunes, tarps, and audio/video surveillance equipment.
Take the muthafuckas OUT and SKATE!!!

It's not a good thing that there are so many people out of the workforce.
102 million not working, 118 million working. What could possibly go wrong?

People who don't work cannot save. People who don't work cannot buy much so they have a lower standard of living. People who don't work of course do not produce anything.

Zerohedge is OK, they are observers of the financial experiment since 2007. They may worry too much or not enough, time will tell.

i want every unaccountable retard thug cop replaced by an unaccountable unemployed Soldier of Fortune subscriber.

A well-regulated militia is one with no authority structure, training or accountability. Fathers are reviled and hated figures, which is why all corporate structures, and the military, are run on an anarchical, anything-goes model, with no lines of authority.

Straw Man says

Quigley says

2) setting up a checkpoint isn't illegal, I think.

It absolutely is.

Apparently its only illegal if you believe its illegal. Bundy doesn’t believe in any authority beyond the county sheriff. That is why he feels he has the right to run his cattle on public land and not pay grazing fees, to him federal law does not exist, In fact he doesn’t believe that the United States of America exists. I don’t know about the moron militia that came to defend his right to over-graze land he doesn’t own.

The best way to handle this probably is to wait until it reaches 120 degrees every day and see how many are left. I suspect most will bail during the lovely Nevada summer weather. Or maybe they have jobs they do unlike the negros Bundy saw sitting on the stoops in Vegas. Eventually Bundy will have to sell the cattle they should then be seized and sold to pay some of his debt.

Past performance is mostly useless for future predictions IMO - that's why it is always different this time and never a better time to buy a house! Same goes for technical trading.

CaptainShuddup says

I don't know why the Democrats just don't get someone like Anderson Cooper to interview them. One of them are bound to slip up and mention they don't like colored or gay folk. Then the Twitterverse will descend on them with a vengeance.

Those bullets are no match for a disparaging hash tag.

Liberals have different standard for their own. Obama made some racial remarks during his recent partying. Not a cricket was heard from liberals about it.

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

Say hey! This was in the Wall Street Journal on March 30, 1999. Note "... how much it will buy."

Holy cow/interesting/compelling ...!

And where is it up to date??? Right here ... see the first chart shown in this thread.
Recent Dow day is Tuesday, May 6, 2014 __ Level is 103.6

WOW! It is hideous that this is hidden! Is there any such "Homes, Inflation Adjusted"? Yes! This was in the New York Times on August 27, 2006:

And up to date (by me) is here:
http://patrick.net/?p=1219038&c=999083#comment-999083

WOW! The UNtrustworthy are certainly in control of what information is apparent to the people!

And "ThePublic Be Suckered"
http://patrick.net/?p=1230886

I speed-read this and commented....

SoftShell says

Because he said something like an entire race would be happier as slaves or that his black wife shouldn't be seen hanging around white people?

There's only a double standard if both sides are equal. The sides are never equal.

without reading this above it...
SoftShell says

FortWayne says

Liberals have different standard for their own. Obama made some racial remarks during his recent partying. Not a cricket was heard from liberals about it.

I only had 13 seconds to work with...

I'm listening for AF.

jvolstad
Army Security Agency

Why should AF bother? His tastes are too mainstream.

How can the government blackmail anyone who watches loan-officer snuff porn, or buries realtors neck-deep in the yard - prior to mowing it - when everyone does it?

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Pump petabytes of disinformation about yourself and synthetic personalities that can be confused with you into every DB and media possible.

Why do you think I post to Patrick.net?

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

The crushing flow of bullshit would render the NSA and its correspondents completely useless.

The NSA is already useless. They didn't stop 9/11, Benghazi, or any other terrorist attack. They didn't predict the slaughter in Syria or the Russian invasion of Crimea.

Sure, the NSA will say they prevented events that they can't tell you about, just like a 9-year-old boy will say that he did the homework, but can't show it to the teacher because it's top secret.

I suspect that half of the NSA are spying on corporations so they can make a quick buck on the stock market with insider information. After all, how could anyone possibly investigate or prosecute them?

The other half is probably hacking into smart phones, activating the cameras remotely, and watching underage boys and girls undress in their bedrooms.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Pump petabytes of disinformation about yourself ... into every DB and media possible.

Especially for those who have already piqued the spies' interest, I think that most spies can tell when information has been emplaced at a natural rate, or appeared suddenly by digital immaculate conception of sorts.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

2) Pump petabytes of disinformation about yourself and synthetic personalities that can be confused with you into every DB and media possible.

This. Totally this.

I would be a Evangelical Christian Lesbian Alcoholic of Color.

Back when I had Tivo, it thought I was a gay nazi, because my wife would watch TLC's What not to Wear and I would watch "Secrets of WW2".

When a small business owner is told "you didn't build that", they tend to fall into an "Ok, I don't get credit for building the business, fuck you I don't give a fuck anymore" state, and their business fails. And more businesses fail. Until there are no more jobs because there are no more businesses.

Now whose job is it to invigorate the business creation business, and the business people who are minding their own business building a business they can be proud of?

If the top dog in the land is telling you, despite your sacrifices of time, blood, sweat, tears, that you didn't build it.....

It's obama's fault.

They stopped loaning/funding/investing in small businesses when the recession hit. All bailout money as we know went to the TBTF banks and friends, and this left nothing for small businesses to fall back on when hard times hit.

Small businesses are owned by lower middle to upper middle class and these regular folks are being left in the dust.

They let C.I.T. Group fail - a bank that specialized in lending small and medium concerns. But they bailed out the big financial companies.

They deregulate the feedlots and the megafarms, but regulate small farmers and homesteaders. In Michigan they are trying to ban all homestead farms in the name of "Sanitation" - "Houses and Cows don't Mix". Even one chicken is one chicken too many - never mind that all the bird flus and animal outbreaks have all happened on mega feedlots.

Banksters get bailouts. Big International Megacorps make double dutch-irish sandwiches and pay 2% in taxes.

But Charlie's Sporting Goods pays the max, can't get single digit interest rate despite decades of sterling credit during historically unprecedented low interest rates.

That's corporatism.

Call it Crazy says

Strategist says

Zerohedge is just a propaganda web site, designed for the sole purpose of misinforming the public.

The data in the chart was puled from the BLS report... How would that be considered propaganda or misinformation??

If anyone is releasing misinformation, it might be the BLS...

Anything from Zerohedge is suspect. It has zero credibility.

The bottom line is that a small business becomes a big business from investment. The correlation is investment money has dried up since 2007.

A secondary factor is the demographics have changed, the country is getting older at age 60 the only thing people buy is RVs and healthcare.

The brooking institute are lefties so this presents a challenge to them, but the facts are dead simple.

Some of the bigger companies expand and some shrink but the they are a wash for creating new jobs. The small companies are the marrow for producing new jobs.

You cannot overstate the importance of market clearing as this is the very catalyst for small business creation. Once again as the Captain said nascent business recovery comes in ways never considered in the past.

The government does not create real jobs period. But by paying over the market rate for government workers every dollar given to them is taken from the market and makes it that much harder for a business to compete. E.G. JB raises the sales tax rate by a mere 1 cent but that is roughly a 13% increase in tax on all commerce in the state. One example of many.

Not that it will change much in the next 15 yr or so until it more or less collapses.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Only ASSHOLES! run businesses.

That is certainly the party line...

People still shop at stores?

I think this has more to do with Amazon running stores out of business.... Than the current economy.

Good NSA recruiting poster: We Have All The Best Porn!

The total of both columns is 65 million short of the 315 million census?
Gee, I wonder who that 65 million could be?

indigenous says

The bottom line is that a small business becomes a big business from investment. The correlation is investment money has dried up since 2007.

Nope--that's not the bottom line. A small business becomes a big business by having lots of customers and making lots of profits.

No customers, no growth. And no reason to start new businesses. If we fixed the inequality problem, new businesses would start forming again.