patrick.net

deepcgi says

And how has the wage of the middle class worker held up against the cost of his/her housing, travel, food, healthcare?

Real average hourly wages have had their best decade in many because inflation has been low,



One thing I have tried over the year to explain to people with the data is that we do see a clear divergence between prime age labor force wage growth and the wage growth of those Americans 55 year and older which makes sense because you're well into your work life and your peak earning years are ares 46-54

So prime age labor force wage growth is running at 3.5% currently but 55 plus is 2% roughly trend for some time. We naturally have more older workers so it does taint the total data a tad but a reason why consumption is so healthy and debt expansion is relativity light outside of auto's is that people are making a lot more that the notion all Americans are poor thesis

HEYYOU says

Charts are like polls,only good at the time of publication.
How about all the brilliant patnetters telling me what will happen in a week or month.
What's the best investment on Oct. 1 2018?

OH! No one knows? Thanks anyway!

In the long run, it's always up. Now you know.

marcus says

I like this graph, A lot.

But I have a question.

Isn't it evidence that Trump and his followers are wrong about globalization ? If GLOBALIZATION HAS BEEN THAT INCREDIBLY GOOD for the world, one might think that a little cognitive dissonance was in order for the diehard Trump fanboys.

Or is it that "we've done our part for the rest of the world, and now it's time to turn inward and save ourselves with some good old fashioned white nationalism ?"

Trade is incredibly good for the world. Trump is in full support of zero trade barriers. He just won't support a one sided trade agreement.

Logan Mohtashami says

This is why everyone wants to come to America.........MONEY.

JZ says

So.... the entire US economy can be played like a cartoon using 20 folders of slides. 156million people working on paper looking bad ass. In reality, these are debt slaves with their income sucked away by rent seekers through house, tuition, medical care and they will never break free from this grotesque “bull market” enabled by the central banks. 156million people are creating wealth and wealth get transferred to the hands of the 1% of the 1% of the 1%.

JZ says

If you try to argue “data” with Logan, he will bury you, regardless which sector, time frame. The thing is he is trying to abstract reality into data sets and ignore what is real. What’s real is the country has NEVER been this divided, the 1% BS the 99% inequality, the extreme left and right even inflict violence upon each other and he talks about the country like a whole entity and ignore the hatred, anger, insecurity( house, tuition, health care ) and struggle of the mass which are what real people feel in real life. He tries to abstract all of those out and plays a set of cartoon and tell you everything is awesome.

JZ says

Yes, the S&P is good and it SHOULD be after this much effort by the central banks at the cost of inequality and division of the countries within and internationally. And yet, S&P all time high has little or nothing to do with how people fret about their mortgages, health care and tuitions and for those bills, people drive uber and lyft, be one of the 156million bad ass working people which also include those being employed by Theranos, Tesla, SnapChat etc, those fraud or money losing businesses enabled by the central banks printing.

It's just your perception reflecting myths.
The average person makes a lot more in America, than anywhere else. Ask any immigrant.
People who constantly have financial problems are those who don't know how to handle money.

Patrick says

Why is China not on that manufacturing graph above?

Answer: because they are the ones who took it from the rest of the world.

Logan Mohtashami says

China vs U.S. not even close, Even China is moving now to a service based economy, China's prime age labor force has already peaked, game is over, the next 30 years will be U.S. dominance over the world

156,000,000 Bad Ass Americans working and 6,800,000 job openings this year.... even manufacturing job openings are at 21st century highs

Manufacturing jobs as a percent of all jobs in the whole world will continue to decline as robots and machines replace humans. It happened in agriculture, and it will continue to happen in manufacturing.

Do you have a chart (s) that track(s) the wage/income increases/decreases, adjusted for inflation, of different quadrants of society? Something like lower, middle, upper middle and upper over say the last 20 or so years? and also how many individuals or what % of the country fall into each of those quadrants?

- Longest job expansion ever, 94 months (2nd best ever was 48 months)
DEEPEST job cuts ever in recent history.. A set up for above.

- Longest bull market ever, ( subject to interpretation) of course but on a duration time-frame not a % return we got that this last week
WORST recession in a long time, they named it something.

- Longest economic expansion ever, July of 2019
AFTER digging such a big hole, and creating QE into infinity, we should be seeing global expansion for years yet. It's possible that in 2020 when the feds goal of rate hikes is met somewhere around 2.5-3.0% that we might finally see some pullback in spending as debt obligations become more difficult to service. On the other hand, if fed debt continues unabated into its parabolic curve that may provide insurance against future recessions, government is largest employer. I was at my CU the other day and they had these signs up all over the place, only 18 days left. They were painstakingly printing new signs and putting them up every day. I ask wth is 18 days mean?

Oh, you have 18 days to roll all your CC debt balances into our CC and get x,y,z interest free, for xyz timeframe, blah, blah, blah. Then runup the other CC again.. ROLLOVER.

I think lol, I've got 18 days to go on one hell of a shopping spree or rack up some CC bills, fast etc. I think people are carrying a whole lot of CC debt. They are going to want to purge that at some point in the future. It's only a matter of time before the banks stop letting them keep rolling it over, banks don't necessarily collude but they do run in lockstep. It's just a matter of watching who the bag holders wind up being. I see small institution and CU falling for it so far. In part, greed. This is a great way to protect the larger banks next time a recession does come though. But .. what will be the spark? I don't see it yet, money is to flush right now.

2018
- RECORD HIGH DEBT ALL AROUND, PEOPLE, GOVERNMENT, RE, CC, College debt, etc. - spending power may see a crimp in coming years as wage growth in certain sectors doesn't see growth like it has - i.e. health care industry wage growth.

We know how that ends up from historical perspective. Upside: Debt doesn't matter anymore! Debt forgiveness is the new runner! It's all built on debt!, a must have! Dow 30,000 coming! Inflation running right next to it, frog simmering happily in his hot tub currently at lukewarm.

everything says

DEEPEST job cuts ever in recent history.. A set up for above.

If I take the last 3 recessions combined job loss runs 13,000,000 we have created over 18,000,000 since 2010, 130 million plus were working at the worst levels of the great recession , the highest unemployment rates came from high school drop outs, college educated Americans peak unemployment rate was 5%

Nice Try!

everything says

QE into infinity

#QE ended in 2014, we were told by the Anti Central people that October of 2014 would bring the end of humanity itself

Nah.....

As always, being alive post 1913 has been a black hole for the Anti Central Bank people, they don't understand why humans are even existing past 1913

Epic disaster, then again look at your head people

Schiff, Rick San tell a Lie, Mish, etc etc etc , the worst macro economic people in world, even worse than Warren Mosler and the MMT trolls that run the internet ....

You need better heroes

everything says

I think lol, I've got 18 days to go on one hell of a shopping spree or rack up some CC bills,

CC utilization rates are actually low in this cycle but this would require reading the data to know this, something the Anti Central Bank trolls chose not to do in this cycle

Is this the best the Anti central bank trolls got left, a bunch rag tag economic theories that failed, over and over and over again in this cycle

Dying Economic Religious Cult with the single worst spokespeople I have ever seen in my life, thank god no one ever listen to the crash calls and tried to short the index every 10 days .... tsk tsk

rdm says

Something like lower, middle, upper middle

One thing about median income itself, not population adjusted and 1/3 of your pay check goes to benefits now 2/3rd goes to actual take hope pay.

But even median incomes even with the added demographic adjustment are at all time highs now, as always we send out higher income base people when they retire and replace them with starting pay income people

Come on guys, is this the best you guys got, the same line over and over again.

You wonder why you guys have been wrong since 1913 ......

Another good one. With computers and smart phones, all we hear now is about the bottom 20% of that chart bitching and complaining. They made their own bed and are now complaining about it. Grow up or lose your computer/smart phone.

Logan Mohtashami says

Being poor in America is very expensive, the problem I see what the extreme left and right make is that they assume most people are 2nd wage earning Americans working 2 jobs and have no education or skill set training. Now that group has issues for sure, but my lord, this is a over play on the economy ...at least the Gig economy was competently debunked this year, even the most liberal economist finally threw in the towel on that one outside of a few extreme left wing thinkers

Logan Mohtashami says

Being poor in America is very expensive, the problem I see what the extreme left and right make is that they assume most people are 2nd wage earning Americans working 2 jobs and have no education or skill set training. Now that group has issues for sure, but my lord, this is a over play on the economy

Stop it. Just stop it. That poor group comprises of the great majority. They are struggling, working long hours with two jobs just to pay slave debt. They are exploited at work by greedy managers in unsafe conditions stealing their overtime. They are being foreclosed upon, and thrown into the streets like garbage. Their children are being denied education and health care. Their cars get repossessed if they are even one day late on their payments. Many are starving and living in cars.
They have no education, no healthcare, no jobs, no homes, no safety. Constantly being harassed for no reason by law enforcement designed to only protect the wealthy 1%. Now they have no opportunities, no hope, just a horrible future to look forward to.
It's time to rise up and take back our country and our wealth that we worked so hard to build. It's revolution time. We will all be prosperous, happy, and with plenty of bread on the table. Every evening we will dance and sing to the success of our revolution.
Folks, a musician near us told me all this.

Logan is there a stock you can recommend that is a prime for buyout?

FortWayne says

Logan is there a stock you can recommend that is a prime for buyout?

It might be a bit late but I am in TRNC + ARNC but I think the market is already on to these two. Outside of that I got nothing, as always most of investment $$$ in a individual stock is still in MASI

Logan Mohtashami says

But even median incomes even with the added demographic adjustment are at all time highs now

Thanks for posting. The growth of the upper middle class is something I wasn't aware of.

Medium income which I assume is calculated as all income, divided by all households is essentially flat since 2000. Given the growth in numbers of the upper middle and rich, would one suppose that those in the bottom 1/2 have been hammered?

rdm says

1/2 have been hammered?

If you don't have any education or skill set training, the cost of living wage capacity is very little, you almost have to live in a low cost of living state to get by.

USA says

If you don't have any education

Hey USA (I mean Logan), where did your other thread with the cartoons go?

Why did you take your name off of these other threads and change it to USA?

USA says

Stock market at all time highs, record duration expansion cycle next, American bears failed once again.

I wonder what happened to those all time highs? Got any cartoons where you can show us?

USA says

When it is all said and done, this economic cycle is going to break all the records.

Records? Or, broken records the last month?

Why did Logan the shill change his name just as the Real estate and stock markets are starting to decline? Is he now an old man hiding behind a fake name on the Internet?

USA says

What happened to the "rich" before 1995?

PaisleyPattern says

Why did Logan the shill change his name just as the Real estate and stock markets are starting to decline? Is he now an old man hiding behind a fake name on the Internet?

Interesting, isn't it. Plus the name change to a fake name, something he accused all the other here of hiding behind.

Apparent all his WRONG calls and WRONG financial opinions were being picked up on search engines under his real name here. Can't have that, when you're trying to sell seminars and promoting yourself as the "chart man".

So that's about 4000 points nuked from the Dow in 2 months. Thanks Obama.

Oh wait

Ha Ha Ha

You kids took the bait.... thank you again

Yeah took the bait, that’s funny, time to change your name back again.

PaisleyPattern says

Yeah took the bait, that’s funny, time to change your name back again.

Stop acting like a little boy... Man UP, its bad enough you hide behind a chicken name like that go on this thread and call for the recession don't hide.... Be a Man

http://patrick.net/post/1321083/2018-12-24-time-stamp-your-2019-recession-call

Logan_Mohtashami says

Ha Ha Ha

You kids took the bait.... thank you again

Bait... that's really funny... more like fraud... busted!!!

Onvacation says

USA says

What happened to the "rich" before 1995?

The S&P 500 is down 20% from its most recent peak. It has now entered a bear market.

Its PE ratio (trail 12 months) is 18, and its historic median is 14.7.

http://www.multpl.com/

Interesting graph. IT coincides with a period when two wage earner families went from being way less than half of household to way more than half. IT leveled off at 60% being dual income, but I would imagine that the number of women in good paying jobs continued to increase over this period. of 1990 to 2008.

So if you combine that with questions about inflation adjustment, I find the growth of upper middle class graph questionable. Sure with two incomes upper middle class was growing, and possibly lower, working class, and middle held steady. I'm not sure that this is as positive as some might infer from that graphic.

The S&P 500 was around 1550 back in March 2000, and now it is around 2350. It has gone up about 50% since March 2000. That is only about a 2.5% annual increase.

Add in an average annual dividend or yield of 1.5%, and the total annual return is 4% since 2000 !

Historically the S&P 500's average total annual return is 10.5%.

adarmiento says

The S&P 500 was around 1550 back in March 2000

What if you use summer 2002 instead ?

You're talking about buying at the top of the most epic bull market run of our lifetimes. The S&P had gone from about 115 to 1550 in the 18 years before that.

Yes, you can change the start and finish dates as far as analyzing S&P 500 performance.

But 19 years later after the market peaked in 2000, you would reasonably expect at least the average annual return to be more like 7% and not 4.5%.

It just shows how much volatility and lackluster stock market performance there has been over the last 19 years.

This thread is the Patnet historical record of Logan ringing the bell at the top in Aug 2018.

S&P 500
2,426.71
-40.99(-1.66%)

Dow 30
22,502.25
-376.20(-1.64%)

Nasdaq
6,447.41
-106.94(-1.63%)

Russell 2000
1,314.09
-15.72(-1.18%)

S&P 500
2,420.19
-47.51(-1.93%)

Dow 30
22,422.55
-455.90(-1.99%)

Nasdaq
6,431.74
-122.62(-1.87%)

Russell 2000
1,308.34
-21.47(-1.61%)

willywonka says

S&P 500
2,420.19
-47.51(-1.93%)

Dow 30
22,422.55
-455.90(-1.99%)

Nasdaq
6,431.74
-122.62(-1.87%)

Russell 2000
1,308.34
-21.47(-1.61%)

We will zig zag in this new range until Jan 01 most likely. If the low is broken, watch out below. Until then, a drift higher is expected for next few days.