patrick.net

GOOD.

Housing is getting more affordable?

That's definitely a good thing.

Good.

No one is buying stocks, homes, etc. Even silver has fell by about 40%.

The CDC says the incubation period is at most 14 days for the Covid-19, or coranavirus.

The CDC states it is transmitted by someone breathing in or swallowing a "respiratory droplet" that is infected with the virus.

Give it another 8 weeks until there is a major downturn in new cases of Covid-19 infection.

If not, then it could be a bioweapon circumstance and a Chinese Communist gift to the Biden campaign.

MM1 says

No one is buying stocks, homes, etc. Even silver has fell by about 40%.

The CDC says the incubation period is at most 14 days for the Covid-19, or coranavirus.

The CDC states it is transmitted by someone breathing in or swallowing a "respiratory droplet" that is infected with the virus.

Give it another 8 weeks until there is a major downturn in new cases of Covid-19 infection.

If not, then it could be a bioweapon circumstance and a Chinese Communist gift to the Biden campaign.

It's already trending down rapidly in Europe and Asia, in a few days to weeks max. the US will peak but the market will go green sooner.

If prices crater, more people can afford it. Doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Eat a realtor.

Fortwaynemobile says

If prices crater, more people can afford it. Doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Eat a realtor.

Isn't that as bad as eating a bat?

Misc says

Fortwaynemobile says

If prices crater, more people can afford it. Doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Eat a realtor.

Isn't that as bad as eating a bat?

Yes, but benefits the society bigly

mell says

It's already trending down rapidly in Europe and Asia, in a few days to weeks max. the US will peak but the market will go green sooner.

What do you mean go green ? You mean start to bounce back and recover ? When do you expect the S&P 500 to bottom and at what level ?

Below 35% its recent high of 3393 points ?

Fortwaynemobile says

If prices crater, more people can afford it. Doesn’t sound like a bad thing.

Eat a realtor.

Doesn’t sound hygienic!

Started watching The Santa Clarita Diet on Netflix last night. First episode, a realtor is turned into a zombie and eats another realtor. Seems like a win win!

Fortwaynemobile says

es, but benefits the society bigly

As far as not paying the 5% to 6% fee to the real estate agent, there are "For Sale by Owner" (FSBO), selling on RedFin, or using Ideal Agent.

CCN? Fakenews.com?

Housing will trail the stock market by a quarter. Nothing has started yet.

BayArea says

Nothing has started yet.

Exactly. But if lenders/landloards don't allow for a grace period to not pay mortgages/rent (not saying you shouldn't if you can pay it) we're going to see massive foreclosure filings and evictions. Definitely going to see a drop in sales though. As much as we all hate parts of the real estate economy, it's less $$$ in people's pockets during their busiest time. Most brokers are just that... broke this time of year until they get their spring closings in March-June.

Lenders can still do refi's pretty easy, but purchase mortgages will start dropping off dramatically. Real estate attorneys are likely to take a hit though. Although if they're a jack of all trades like my old man was we're going to see an uptick of divorces and BK's.

Everyone also forgets about all the taxes with this stuff too. It's not a massive chunk of local government revenue, but when you start accounting for transfer taxes, lost sales taxes from everything except grocery and pharma for the most part, it's going to get ugly for government coffers. The one hope I have is that the people with salaries still get paid and they'll likely be hoarding cash since they cannot do anything and will come out of this spending big. I'm not hopeful.

MM1 says

Fortwaynemobile says

es, but benefits the society bigly

As far as not paying the 5% to 6% fee to the real estate agent, there are "For Sale by Owner" (FSBO), selling on RedFin, or using Ideal Agent.

It’s much more than that. It’s the insidious kickback laden industry designed to fuck buyer and seller over from every angle.

Fortwaynemobile says

It’s the insidious kickback laden industry designed to fuck buyer and seller over from every angle.

Absolutely.

And it will not get fixed because the NAR is the 2nd largest briber of Congress.

The ultimate problem is campaign finance. Congressmen are easily paid off because they need the campaign cash. One fix would be publicly funded Congressional campaigns. Everyone who get a certain amount of signatures gets funding to run.

Patrick says

The ultimate problem is campaign finance. Congressmen are easily paid off because they need the campaign cash. One fix would be publicly funded Congressional campaigns. Everyone who get a certain amount of signatures gets funding to run.

Idealistic, but it's not a bad idea. PAC's are the problem. And not even that, what would stop Bloomberg, with accounting for it, to pay for ads as an individual bashing Trump or a Republican Senator? Not even a PAC. He just dropped 1/2B on a failure of a campaign.

And it will not get fixed because the NAR is the 2nd largest briber of Congress.

Disagree. That is like blaming dope abuse on the dope dealer. Common folk just will not buy a house without a realtor:

1. Too complex. Even folks with simple taxes hire an accountant to do them. They certainly are not going to buy a house on their own.
2. Buyers think a realtor handles a closing, even many bloggers here think that. A realtor's only purpose is to find a buyer.
3. The average Joe thinks the realtor's service if free. Remember, so many are the "how much a month" types. As with car buying, anything rolled into the loan is "free" or "paid by the seller."
4. VIP treatment. The buyer gets chauffeured around like a big shot businessman client.

I even had a neighbor who had a ready buyer for his house with a guy at his work. Even with a buyer in hand, the neighbor did not contact title company or attorney to do the closing, he contacted and paid a realtor. The neighbor did not want "any loose ends to come back later."

I have bought two houses without a realtor, but have been unable to sell without a realtor. The best I could do was knock the commission down to 4%. Too many buyers out there when they want to shop for a house, reflexively call a realtor.

We need a portion of a required class in high school to be personal finance, with a one week section on how to buy and sell a house without a realtor. The basic mechanics and legalities of the process, and then have a complete accurate description of what little services the realtor or agent provides in the process. Emphasis on all of the forms you sign that remove them from all liability.

Agree that high school should have classes about personal finance and I would add basics of Law.
Re; article... twisted facts from unreliable source. The only crash in RE I see when prospective buyers will have to eat saved down-payment.

APOCALYPSEFUCKisShostikovitch says

Financial crime should be taught in history classes as well.

AF, do I detect you hating SUCCESS!!! again???

BTW "financial crime" chapter in history books should be adjacent to chapter named "100 methods how to decapitate criminals with a guillotine".

ForcedTQ says

We need a portion of a required class in high school to be personal finance, with a one week section on how to buy and sell a house without a realtor. The basic mechanics and legalities of the process, and then have a complete accurate description of what little services the realtor or agent provides in the process. Emphasis on all of the forms you sign that remove them from all liability.

@ForcedTQ Love this!

Realtors will fight it, and tons of them are on local school boards.

But parents will hopefully see the wisdom in it.

ForcedTQ says

We need a portion of a required class in high school to be personal finance

Democrats will never allow this.

I can see a semester in high school on life finance

How to buy a house and evaluate loans
How to rent a house and compare lease contracts
How to buy a car
Insurance
Savings vehicles and ROI
Stocks and Dividends

After all, almost everyone will participate in the above during their life.

HeadSet says

I can see a semester in high school on life finance

How to buy a house and evaluate loans
How to rent a house and compare lease contracts
How to buy a car
Insurance
Savings vehicles and ROI
Stocks and Dividends

After all, almost everyone will participate in the above during their life.

Those are all great, but let’s start with what most people don’t have a handle on: how to do a budget and stick to it. That’s priority number 1.

HeadSet says

And it will not get fixed because the NAR is the 2nd largest briber of Congress.

Disagree. That is like blaming dope abuse on the dope dealer. Common folk just will not buy a house without a realtor:

1. Too complex. Even folks with simple taxes hire an accountant to do them. They certainly are not going to buy a house on their own.
2. Buyers think a realtor handles a closing, even many bloggers here think that. A realtor's only purpose is to find a buyer.
3. The average Joe thinks the realtor's service if free..

WOW!! Do you know what a Realtor is? Do you know what an estate agent is? Do you know the difference? Have you heard of the NAR? Did you know that not all estate agents are Realtors? Is accuracy important to you? Why do you post in a condescending way when your post is factually incorrect? Do you ca... never mind.

My employer is slated to move me into an oilfield town, oil price has been almost cut in half and since that crash I have noticed barely any new listing and some shy price-cut ( -5% ). It seems lot of sellers are holding off. It's a buyer market that is just turning into a HUGE buyer market.

Many homes have been on the market sitting empty 6 months 1 year +, when I initially thought about doing a initial offer at 80% asking, I think I might push it down to the 60,s delay my house hunting trip and maybe wait on the sideline for real capitulation.

Companies have the very nasty habits of holding laying off workers until December!

WOW!! Do you know what a Realtor is? Do you know what an estate agent is? Do you know the difference? Have you heard of the NAR? Did you know that not all estate agents are Realtors?

NONE of that has anything to do with people reflexively using realtors when shopping for houses. Just because I do not choose to capitalize the "R" on realtor does not mean I do not know how the system works. I have personally bought and sold over a dozen houses, with and without a realtor. How about you?

Many homes have been on the market sitting empty 6 months 1 year +

Yes, that happens when the houses have mortgages that are underwater. The seller would rather make payments on an empty house that have to cough up $50k at the closing table. For bank owned homes, keeping a home on the market at original value lets them claim a higher asset value on the books. If the bank sold the house at current market value, the bank would have a mark down in assets.

I call bullshit on any housing crash until the supply/demand curve goes completely the other way. TPTB are not going to let collateral go below what they need it to be. And that is high. They need housing prices to stay permanently high. Homeownership rate will trend down forever.