patrick.net

6 months later, the stock market and the housing market, both, are at all time high. 🤑🤑🤑

Now, the question is are we in a bubble?

Easy to answer that:

Is the cost of owning more than the cost of renting the same thing over the typical 6 or 7 year holding period for a house?

You can use the NY Slimes rent-vs-buy calculator.

You haven’t changed your flawed thesis Patrick. 👍

What's flawed about it?

Eman says

6 months later, the stock market and the housing market, both, are at all time high. 🤑🤑🤑

And while I bought my house with 20% down, I’m approaching 50% equity.

Eman says

You haven’t changed your flawed thesis Patrick. 👍

It's not flawed if the Fed didn't meddle so ginormously in the market.

There's no prolonged crash on the horizon this year, maybe brief corrections like we have seen but stock and hosting market will continue to climb. Out of controls rates, back to back bad auctions or a surprise Fed rate hike could trigger a bigger correction, and, as always poor earnings and layoffs (which are nowhere in sight). We gotta wait for inflation to keep climbing, not damaging enough yet.

rocketjoe79 says

Houses in my area (NorCal) are flying off the shelves. 2-3 days sell time when a house comes up, zero inventory (except trash pits.)

Where are you in NorCal? I'm in Sonoma County. I'm glad I didn't buy here in 2015 the fires suck!

Shorting S&P got half on will add other mon..using an inverse etf wish me luck :P

Patrick says

Yes, going to check out Washington State in June or so, anywhere except Seattle.

No income tax there, nice scenery, some relatives.

I'll go anywhere that does not demand me to show papers proving I've been injected with an experimental agent to make Fauci rich.

Tennessee no income tax in 2021! Southern people are the nicest! I enjoyed my trip to NC! I'm going back in Oct and plan to move next year! The state is filled with trees. Pretty cool when you go walking at night, there's fireflies and bunnies hopping around.

Never ending almost zero rate gov money drives markets for decades already. In BA companies are minting millionaires at record rate. Most of the tech money chasing very few available housing around and elsewhere. There no new housing being built and there is no skin in the game to sell under 1978 Prop 13 for existing houses. Unless market crashes and companies start mass layoffs, housing can keep going up even more on latest hyper inflation. Inflation is a friend of money transfer from savers to debtors. Govs around became like a drunken sailors lately with financial engineering.

There has been continuous and ever increasing interference in the markets by governments and their proxies (banks). There is now very little physical investment in pretty much any enterprise. Nobody is willing to put their own money at risk in new endeavors.

The savings rate of the upper 10% of the income distribution dwarfs the meager physical investment in the economy.

The shear amount of mal-investment is astounding.

Yes, I got a 6 million dollar offer on my California crap shack if I allow it to be come a secret command, control and coordination center for the Chinese Army. 300 percent instant appreciation! I can even still live there if I want and play with the hi end electronics.

mich says

Shorting S&P got half on will add other mon..using an inverse etf wish me luck :P

Seems like a decent entry. Good luck

porkchopexpress says

Eman says

You haven’t changed your flawed thesis Patrick. 👍

It's not flawed if the Fed didn't meddle so ginormously in the market.

Or you can use it to your advantage rather than blaming the Fed.

Patrick says

What's flawed about it?

No point of rehashing this. By your definition, a house in the ghetto and a house in a nice part of town are almost the same price as the rents are not that much difference.

Misc says

There has been continuous and ever increasing interference in the markets by governments and their proxies (banks). There is now very little physical investment in pretty much any enterprise. Nobody is willing to put their own money at risk in new endeavors.

The savings rate of the upper 10% of the income distribution dwarfs the meager physical investment in the economy.

The shear amount of mal-investment is astounding.

Nobody? Elon Musk put his last millions in Tesla when it was on the verge of going bankrupt. Go Elon. 🚀🚀

When the stock market crashed in March last year, my buddy took $280k of cash out refi proceeds and put it in the stock market. He gained over $500k by year end. His biggest gain was buying TSLA at $589/share pre-split.

We can choose to keep marching forward in the face of adversities, or we can sit around whine and bitch. We all have a choice. People are where they are in life for a reason.

Eman says

Misc says

There has been continuous and ever increasing interference in the markets by governments and their proxies (banks). There is now very little physical investment in pretty much any enterprise. Nobody is willing to put their own money at risk in new endeavors.

The savings rate of the upper 10% of the income distribution dwarfs the meager physical investment in the economy.

The shear amount of mal-investment is astounding.

Nobody? Elon Musk put his last millions in Tesla when it was on the verge of going bankrupt. Go Elon. 🚀🚀

When the stock market crashed in March last year, my buddy took $280k of cash out refi proceeds and put it in the stock market. He gained over $500k by year end. His biggest gain was buying TSLA at $589/share pre-split.

We can choose to keep marching forward in the face of adversities, or we can sit around whine and bitch. We all have a c...

Thank you for making my point. TSLA has total assets of about $52 billion, $28 billion in debt leaving about $24 billion in invested capital.

For this $24 billion in invested capital it has a market cap of about $650 billion. So for every $1 million of real investment, "investors" have ponied up $26 million of their "savings" because there is nothing to invest in.

Misc says

Eman says

Misc says

There has been continuous and ever increasing interference in the markets by governments and their proxies (banks). There is now very little physical investment in pretty much any enterprise. Nobody is willing to put their own money at risk in new endeavors.

The savings rate of the upper 10% of the income distribution dwarfs the meager physical investment in the economy.

The shear amount of mal-investment is astounding.

Nobody? Elon Musk put his last millions in Tesla when it was on the verge of going bankrupt. Go Elon. 🚀🚀

When the stock market crashed in March last year, my buddy took $280k of cash out refi proceeds and put it in the stock market. He gained over $500k by year end. His biggest gain was buying TSLA at $589/share pre-split.

We can choose to keep marching forward ...

If that’s how you view TSLA without factor in their growth, you’re missing the entire boat. $1M for every $26M represents a 3.8% return. This ROI may seem pathetic, but it’s more than the borrowing cost from the bank. Once the projected growth of the company is factored in, the ROI goes up exponentially. Cathie Wood has a vision on TSLA, and she has been dead on with her projection. I’d put my money on her and Elon any day of the week.

Uhhhh, you are looking at ROI incorrectly. I was pointing out the multiple of actual money invested in the enterprise compared to its inflated share price.

For ROI, TSLA earned less than $1 billion in 2020 with a market cap now of about $650 billion.

Misc says

Uhhhh, you are looking at ROI incorrectly. I was pointing out the multiple of actual money invested in the enterprise compared to its inflated share price.

For ROI, TSLA earned less than $1 billion in 2020 with a market cap now of about $650 billion.

You think all the new gigafactories and supercharging stations worldwide are free to build. Just like how people kept saying AMZN was so expensive then, and still expensive now when the company reinvested most of their money back into the biz.

You said nobody is willing to put their own money at risk. I proved that Elon and TSLA investors are willing to put their own money at risk. Have fun sitting on the sidelines.

Bitcoin says

RC2006 says

clambo says

I'm trying to adjust to Florida, but I miss California for the weather, scenery, history, etc.

California is the best.....beautiful beaches, trails, mountains, weather. cant beat it.

But if your neighborhood is overran by commies, crazy homos preaching gay shit to kids, homeless everywhere and kids can’t even go outside... none of it matters.

With more jobs going full-time remote, I'm considering leaving CA but I'm trying to figure out to where. I've heard good things about Nashville, TN as well as the Carolinas. We don't want freezing cold or rain (Seattle, MN, Denver) or brutally hot (PHX, Vegas), and of course lower taxes and more Right wing. Any suggestions?

Cour d'Alene, Idaho comes to mind.

Patrick says

Cour d'Alene, Idaho comes to mind.

I love CDA but I've heard it snows like crazy in the winter.

Eman says

Now, the question is are we in a bubble?

I sold all my recovery stocks over the past 2 weeks (CCL, LUV, DAL, AAL, NCLH).

During the tech / EV dip i loaded up on Nio, TSLA, NVIDIA, QQQ, ARKK and just today TSM.
ABR, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, SPY, TMO, ILMN, BABA, COIN are also large positions in my portfolio.

boomer stocks ( gold and silver ) are flat and boring as always. The run for recovery stocks is in IMO. My guess is we keep rotating out of recovery into tech stocks.

I am in Colorado for a week, near denver.....real estate had quite the run here too. It a beautiful state!

Bitcoin says

I am in Colorado for a week, near denver.....real estate had quite the run here too. It a beautiful state!

Boy has it. Ever since they legalized weed, their economy has been on fire. I suppose since they were one of the first states to do it, people migrated from many other states to live there. Prior to that, it was an extremely affordable place to live, with an abundance of middle class SFHs for $200k. But real estate has skyrocketed every year since then. A few I checked were up about 150% over 8 yrs. They're also now blessed with many homeless, when they had none before (that I ever saw).

I was in Boulder about seven years ago and remember a large number of homeless then.

I heard loveland is one of the more affordable places. walked new construction in Loveland which is priced in the 700's (2700+ sqft) right at the Lake with beautiful views of the Rockies. You also find new construction here in the 500's (SFH 1500 sqft).
Seeing a lot of homeless people is a given nowadays. If you can survive outside you will see homeless people in any city.

Hircus says

Ever since they legalized weed, their economy has been on fire. I suppose since they were one of the first states to do it, people migrated from many other states to live there.

That was a smart move by CO. Looks like it paid off.

Patrick says

I was in Boulder about seven years ago and remember a large number of bums & wino's then.

FIXED!

Eman says

Now, the question is are we in a bubble?

Clearly so

Booger says

Eman says

Now, the question is are we in a bubble?

Clearly so

people scream bubble twice a year now. Eventually they will be right but I doubt those people bought during the covid dip?! And so I think those bears wont even buy during a crash. Because they will always wait for the bigger one.
Are you better off dollar cost avg into the bull market and buying more on dips or waiting decades for your epic crash? :)

kinda reminds me of peter

House agent just called, they have an eager buyer lined up to pay us 100k over the price we just paid a month ago. Inflation has arrived

Yup these price gains are insane. I'm seeing lot of wage inflation to on the lower end and it is only a matter of time for it to hit higher earners.

Maybe that was plan all along for wiping out debt and reset. Biden knows and doeant care he has his protection and riches for being part of it.

RC2006 says

Yup these price gains are insane. I'm seeing lot of wage inflation to on the lower end and it is only a matter of time for it to hit higher earners.

Maybe that was plan all along for wiping out debt and reset. Biden knows and doeant care he has his protection and riches for being part of it.

Found one cleaner who may stay around $350, while now most quote $450-$550 to clean a 3 bedroom/3bathroom house. Soon they will have to "adjust" the payouts for the bums due to inflation and the cycle continues

mell says

House agent just called, they have an eager buyer lined up to pay us 100k over the price we just paid a month ago. Inflation has arrived

@mell You mean they are offering you $100k to move out of the place you just bought, without it even being on the market?

Patrick says

mell says

House agent just called, they have an eager buyer lined up to pay us 100k over the price we just paid a month ago. Inflation has arrived

@mell You mean they are offering you $100k to move out of the place you just bought, without it even being on the market?

Yes it's our buyer agent, she has a client who would pay us a 100k premium of what we paid to buy us out. But besides from us loving it here and having just moved in the turnaround costs are roughly 15%, I think, so maybe 250k would get me thinking but prob not even ;)

tech stocks are doing well.
AMZN, APPL for instance are breaking the overhead resistance. I could see APPLE at 160 in the near future.

AAPL :)