patrick.net

All knowing eye of 'Christine' on Telegram:
"What are the odds. 3 huge financial news stories hitting on the same day.
Can we connect some dots?
Phil has previously done this.

Story 1

https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/20221003closed.htm

Emergency meeting behind closed doors for the Fed today.
Is the meeting about inflation?
Get more aggressive in rate hikes or pivot and slow them down?

Or, as I suspect the meeting is about story 2?

Story 2

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/03/credit-suisse-seeking-to-assure-investors-amid-financial-concerns-ft.html

Credit Suisse is on suicide watch. It’s broke and desperately needs to raise capital.
If it goes belly up then it will take Deutsche bank with it then contagion panic sweeps Europe and begins the global debt system collapse.
They desperately need cash injections and some form of bailout.

Story 3
The price of silver spiked up this morning.
This is a huge deal.
JPM Chase is the biggest holder of silver and has been the one that has helped controll the metals prices to prop up the dollar.
Suddenly the price jumped up.
But why?
My opinion is JPM needs to raise capital in order to help bail out Credit Suisse because all these corrupt banks are broke and if one big one goes down they all do.
So they pushed the price of silver way up in pre market when volume is low so they can sell into the rally to raise capital.
Why do I think that?
Look at the chart.
It “gapped” way up at the open.
Stocks always fill the gaps which tells me this rally is short lived and probably won’t make it through the end of the week.
It will go back down and fill that gap down at 17.77 fairly soon.
But this is a good sign. The global debt system is panicked and on the brink.
Same wig with the stock market that gapped up today.
Dead cat bounce."

I don't see any significant reduction in house prices yet, except for those who tried to fetch sky high amounts for their shacks and are not thrown back into reality in a more competitive market with lesser buyer (or people qualifying to buy). Maybe a 5%-10% reduction from the top so far in select CA areas.

In my hood the prices have come down maybe $75k on average. However, only 4 sales occurred in the last 30 days. 12 homes on the market. It’s a small neighborhood. Avg for 3/2 is $900k right now. A two story like mine is $1.1-1.2 depending on size/upgrades.

It will drop more. Betting another $75k before it hits a bottom. And I’d predict more except for the inflation.

Does anyone recommend SFH/Apt investment in CT near Hartford or New Haven preferably to beat SP500 index. I know someone who lives and bought an investment propertiy few years ago, says the market is mild and swings are much less in either side.

Blue says

Does anyone recommend SFH/Apt investment in CT near Hartford or New Haven preferably to beat SP500 index. I know someone who lives and bought an investment propertiy few years ago, says the market is mild and swings are much less in either side.

Always heard that area was a real shit hole.

Mortgage Application Pace Plunges To 25-Year Low As Housing Recession Deepens

https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/mortgage-application-pace-plunges-25-year-low-housing-recession-deepens

Shaman says

Always heard that area was a real shit hole.

most of connecticut is a shithole ...its the mississippi of the northeast ... greenwich and mystic are okay but that's about it ...

iShares US Home Construction ETF

December 2006: $43
February 2020 : $50
Dec 2021: $83 (all time high)
June 2022: $49 (recent bottom)
current: $56

.

ad says

Shaman says

Always heard that area was a real shit hole.

most of connecticut is a shithole ...its the mississippi of the northeast ... greenwich and mystic are okay but that's about it ...

Well at least the shoreline is pretty nice (smaller towns) and even areas like glastonbury are quite nice. It's humid though. The reason RE is relatively affordable is that the leftoids raised taxes like lunatics and drove away all the businesses, and with it many people.

The only reason why CT isn't much worse is because of all the people fleeing NY.

Disclosure: I'm from NY originally.

zzyzzx says

This seems misleading. Why do a chart of inventory growth yoy? It doesn’t tell you anything. If Raleigh had 2 homes for sale and 2021 and now has 4, that’s 100% inventory growth. It’s still not enough houses.

Show a chart of days on market or price to list comparisons for 2021 vs 2022.

@Bitcoin, I'm seriously worried about you.

Are you still alive? I'm really asking this and I'm not being glib. Are you alive?

"For many [home] sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them"

1st Look at Local Housing Markets in September

A few early reporting markets …

This is the first look at local markets in September. I’m tracking about 35 local housing markets in the US. Some of the 35 markets are states, and some are metropolitan areas. I’ll update these tables throughout the month as additional data is released.

We are seeing a sharp decline in closed sales, and inventory is up significantly year-over-year. Also, new listings are down as the sellers’ strike continues. The increase in inventory so far has been due to softer demand - likely because of higher mortgage rates.

Denver, Las Vegas, and San Diego

Here are some local comments …

From Denver Metro Association of Realtors® (DMAR): DMAR Real Estate Market Trends Report

Using months of inventory as a metric indicates that Denver Metro is moving toward a balanced market. … However, for many sellers, it likely feels like the rug has been pulled out from underneath them. Price reductions are rising, while active listings at month end rose 10.72 percent to 7,683. Pending sales declined 15.41 percent for both detached and attached homes month-over-month, which directly relates to a 6.38 percent decline in sales volume month-over-month.

emphasis added

From Las Vegas Realtors® Las Vegas area home prices hold steady after three-month slide LVR housing statistics for September 2022

“The good news for buyers is that it has been at least three years since we’ve had this many homes available for sale.” [said LVR President Brandon Roberts, a longtime local REALTOR®. ]

By the end of September, LVR reported 8,121 single-family homes listed for sale without any sort of offer. That’s up 134.5% from the same time last year. Likewise, the 1,849 condos and townhomes listed without offers in September represent a 194.4% jump from one year earlier.

LVR reported a total of 2,554 existing local homes, condos and townhomes sold in September. Compared to one year earlier, sales were down 36.7% for homes and down 39.7% for condos and townhomes.

https://calculatedrisk.substack.com/p/for-many-home-sellers-it-likely-feels

$1.4 million in Gilroy for a home on less than a 10,000 square foot lot? Is there a gold mine under the house?

https://www.redfin.com/CA/Gilroy/1475-E-Hillview-Ct-95020/home/1619952?riftinfo=ZXY9ZW1haWwmbD0zODI1MjEmcD1saXN0aW5nX3VwZGF0ZXNfcmVjb21tZW5kYXRpb25zJmE9Y2xpY2smcz1yZWNvbW1lbmRhdGlvbnMmdD1hZGRyZXNzJmVtYWlsX2lkPTM4MjUyMV8xNjY1MDYwMDM2XzYmdXBkYXRlX3R5cGU9OSZsaWxyX3Njb3JlPTAuOTUxMiZsaXN0aW5nX2lkPTE1NzM1Mjc2MCZwcm9wZXJ0eV9pZD0xNjE5OTUyJnBvc2l0aW9uX251bWJlcj0w

richwicks says

@Bitcoin, I'm seriously worried about you.

Are you still alive? I'm really asking this and I'm not being glib. Are you alive?

I'm not gonna be too harsh, but he was a pumper. Likely freaked and lost his ass on crypto. Mind you he bought at the 2nd peak and may have dumped it. Crypto will run again, but I think that's the last time. I'd have gotten 100% out this last time if I had a net profit. The crypto future is bleak. If it's digital gold it should be rising in a time of war and massive inflation. It's not. So it's hard to come back here and eat the shit he was spewing.

Gold mine! is that a sarcasm. It’s $500/sft 43y old with full of termites if not maintained well. Poor school ratings too.

exfatguy says

$1.4 million in Gilroy for a home on less than a 10,000 square foot lot? Is there a gold mine under the house?

The choo-choo is going to pass through these parts. Maybe they are gambling on the house being bought out under imminent domain.

Eric Holder says

The choo-choo is going to pass through these parts. Maybe they are gambling on the house being bought out under imminent domain.

Nah. Guv will just nuke the tract with DEW's and give them pennies on the dollar for the burned out lots. DEWs are the new urban redevelopment and condemnation tools. The big ZAPEROO from space. Idiot ants think it's just an unaccountable force of nature.

WookieMan says

The crypto future is bleak. If it's digital gold it should be rising in a time of war and massive inflation. It's not. So it's hard to come back here and eat the shit he was spewing.

It's not workable as a currency. It's too expensive to do a transaction and too slow. I won't touch it.

I had some scammer try to get me into it (not Bitcoin) very recently, that's the death knell, when people who are UNQUESTIONABLY scammers are trying to get you to buy it. It was a true tulip. If they ever produce a cryptocurrency that is very cheap, or free, to trade, that might be a winner, but it can't use a distributed hash table. I don't know if it's possible to do this.

But I'm seriously worried about Bitcoin, he had a bad reaction to the vaxx and then insisted on getting another, and I've not heard from him since.

On April 26 he said he was going to get a "booster" and 8 days later was his last post he ever made here.

WookieMan says

it's hard to come back here and eat the shit he was spewing

If you say so. I blocked her/him a long time ago because I was just tired of reading those.

richwicks says

On April 26 he said he was going to get a "booster" and 8 days later was his last post he ever made here

My fit-as-a-fiddle then 69 year old friend "died in his sleep, no autopsy" within days of getting the second vaccine.

Yes, yes, - I know: 69 years old. He was a very fit 69 year old. He'd swim 2 miles of laps in the pool at the gym like it was nothing. Climb Mission Peak on a morning stroll like it was a walk in the park. Now he's gone.

cisTits says

Perfect example of Russian propaganda. Because the PatNet 'experts' on real estate haven't told us this shit is happening! And we all know their word is gold!

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/7202-W-Cherry-Hills-Dr-Peoria-AZ-85345/7700622_zpid/

it last sold for $116,200 in June 1998

appreciate this 5% annually over 24 years to find the bottom price

(1.05)^24 x $116,200 = 3.225 x $116,200 = $374,757 (suggested bottom price)

It currently is for sale for $444,000, down from its initial price of $495,000 this past June

.

I frequently drive past this one in my blue-collar section of East SJ.

It faces a quiet residential street, but it's on a corner of a major four lane road. Used to be six lanes till our Progressive Mayor took two lanes away for bike lanes. The bike lanes are two-wheel suicide lanes. Better to stay on the sidewalk.

Behind this 3 BR 1300 sq ft home is a moribund strip mall that's had more than one murder committed.

According to the ®eal Estate site cited here in the link, a month ago the offer for about $1.3M was accepted.

With the various and sundry Junk Fees added to the base assessment, I suppose the "lucky" buyer who "got" the house signed up for a tax bill of about $18k per year. Didn't the Republican Congress limit deductibility of such local taxes in recent years?

The same ®eal Estate site estimates the place would collect about $3500 per month in rent. It means the "lucky" buyer will be on the hook for a huge ownership premium over renting, unless of course they didn't borrow. Still, though, at today's interest rates if my math is right the theoretical "all cash" purchase amount of $1.3 M would yield about $50K in one or year treasuries (no state income tax!) far exceeding the ®eal Estate website's $3500/month rent estimate.

Sheesh. Who the f*ck are these people?

https://www.zillow.com/homes/2903-Remington-Way-San-Jose,-CA-95148_rb/19793140_zpid/

richwicks says

But I'm seriously worried about Bitcoin, he had a bad reaction to the vaxx and then insisted on getting another, and I've not heard from him since.

As I've said before I wish no ill will on anyone. Even if we've had an issue here. I think I have with most everyone here to be honest, but generally tame with regards to an internet argument outside of maybe 4-5 outbursts on my end.

No one is ever going to agree 100%. I frankly don't understand why he would get vaccinated as I believe he's in his 30's-40's. I also don't understand admitting a bad reaction and then getting more of the same stuff. Boggles my mind. I hope he's fine. Tons of people have adverse reactions to mundane drugs let alone a vaccine. I am and will stay a pure blood until I see the results over what would be the normal time. Which is not under 2 years.

https://www.mortgagenewsdaily.com/markets/mortgage-rates-10062022

No, Mortgage Rates Aren't Lower This Week. They're Actually Back Over 7%

https://old.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/xxe2j3/how_to_tell_bank_that_i_will_be_moving_out_of_my/

I bought a house about 3 months ago in FL with a primary 5% down to live near family and now my company is forcing us to come back to the office (in a different state) so my question is if there is anything I need to do like notify my bank or something (what's that process like) since I won't be meeting the one year minimum requirement. I intend to rent it out once I move since selling it would probably put me in a negative and the rates were lower than today.

WookieMan says

richwicks says

But I'm seriously worried about Bitcoin, he had a bad reaction to the vaxx and then insisted on getting another, and I've not heard from him since.

As I've said before I wish no ill will on anyone. Even if we've had an issue here. I think I have with most everyone here to be honest, but generally tame with regards to an internet argument outside of maybe 4-5 outbursts on my end.

No one is ever going to agree 100%. I frankly don't understand why he would get vaccinated as I believe he's in his 30's-40's. I also don't understand admitting a bad reaction and then getting more of the same stuff. Boggles my mind. I hope he's fine. Tons of people have adverse reactions to mundane drugs let alone a vaccine. I am and will stay a pure blood until I see the results over what would be the normal time. Which is not under 2 years.

Maybe @Patrick could send a wellness check to his email?

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xwnzbl/my_fair_reasonable_rate_adjusted_offers_aka/

My fair, reasonable, rate adjusted offers “aka lowball” are now coming with 24 hours expiration

I did a 24 hour deadline for less than list price on the house I closed on in August.

But that’s because I was burned by a previous seller who took 7 DAYS to consider our offer and wouldn’t discuss anything with our realtor and was basically unreachable. They rejected it, and that house didn’t close until yesterday for less than what we offered, almost two months after we moved into our new home.

Zillow map of for sale in Santa Cruz area. Light reds are ones clicked on to look at offerings. Couple of months ago, you might have to wait several weeks just for a single listing or two to even open up in Capitola, now several. Some reductions, but mostly holding on to hopium prices while the market gets more cluttered with inventory. It is interesting that a lot of the listings are clustering along the most expensive shore front properties.

stereotomy says

Maybe @Patrick could send a wellness check to his email?

Now anyone can cause a private email to be sent to another user by tipping him or her and including a private message as the comment with it.

I just did it myself to Bitcoin. I'll let you know if he answers.

https://www.reddit.com/r/REBubble/comments/xz7oja/story_time/

New England area:

Husband and I have been looking for a house since about March when prices were still a bit high. From then until now we’ve put offers in on 3 different homes. All homes sold for about 5k-10k above our offers. One was the same offer as ours but an all cash sale for 550k.

Very early in September a new house came on the market listed for 625,000 we said “eff it, let’s go see it” (our budget being about 600 with interest rates at 5.2).

We saw the house, really liked it, but it had an EXTENSIVE mold issue, needed all new windows, new roof and had a pool in the backyard that likely needed to be filled in. The woman that lived there was an empty nester and sort of let the maintenance on the home go awry for, oh, say 25 years. There was no way the house was worth 625.

So we shot her an offer within 3 days of the house being on the market: 550, she came back at 605. We said “no thanks!” and moved along. We did really love the home. It was the perfect layout for a “forever home”, but needed a lot of elbow grease and a lot of funds to get it up to normal (not even fancy!) standard.

Fast forward two weeks, the fed shoots up rates, house is still sitting on the market after two open houses. At that point rates were, I think, 6.2. Seller contacts our agent and says “are your buyers still interested? We can do 575”. We again say “no thanks”. With rate hikes the mortgage would be higher than 600k at 5.2%. Certainly not a deal for us by any measure. Just last week she reached out again and said “I can do 550”. Our initial offer. Which, again, would still put us at a HIGHER mortgage than the 575 at the prior rate.

They’re just not getting it. Prices are coming down but they’re certainly not getting it. Our lovely realtor gave us the old “marry the house, date the rate” line.

No thanks 😊