patrick.net

https://kiramason.substack.com/p/buyer-strategy-just-did-a-total-360

With buyers and sellers behaving as they are, it’s impossible for me to imagine that we won’t witness a fairly significant median price decline once today’s pending transactions close. Twitter is full of comments about low inventory keeping prices stable, and of course that is true to some extent. But even with today’s low inventory, I’m seeing desperate sellers willing to accept less for their homes, and buyers poised to take maximum advantage. What can we expect to see once today’s record number of homes under construction hit the market? Or if the layoffs the Fed is aiming towards put sellers in a position in which they’re forced to begin selling assets? The fact that I’m already seeing what I’m seeing with inventory still at historically low levels is a rather bad omen for the housing market of 2023.

Or...we might end up with the entire country Californiaized. Where only the very highly compensated can buy a house, but where the people that bought before the interest rates jumped just stay put and/or rent out their property they have a 3% mortgage on.

This is something that happened in California and now there's only 45% home ownership in the state and that is mostly from buyers from a long time ago.

Very few newcomers can afford a house. Makes more sense to rent.

Misc says

Very few newcomers can afford a house. Makes more sense to rent.

I suspect if rent is not affordable enough, then they get two families living in a home designed for one family, or they convert it into a boarding house. Boarding houses give a good ROI for the landlord.

I was working in Northern Virginia (Manassas) where I needed a place for 6 months and rented a room with its own bathroom back in 2013 for $800 a month.

The room was in a 5 bedroom McMansion typical in Northern Virginia.

The owner bought the house new for around $200,000 in 2001 and was grossing at least $2400 a month in rent.

It's happening. As predicted by Reventure Consulting and Real Estate Mindset, builders are unloading new homes at a price/sq. ft. substantially lower than used homes price/sq. ft. Will the sellers' agents urge them to adust their inflated listing prices? Will buyers' agents make the correct much lower offers?

GNL says

FortWayneAsNancyPelosiHaircut says

Bu out here, they'd damn the listing to sit there forever since no buyer agent will have incentive to show it.

Don't Realtors have some kind of duty to show the house if it meets their buyer's parameters?

Huh? You don’t tell your realtors exactly what houses to take you to?

Realtors only value is if they are using connections to show you off market properties. Anything that hits MLS I know about and ask that they show if I’m interested. If they won’t take me, fired on the spot.

stfu says

zzyzzx says

People here are posting good reasons why this can occur (job recession would be my leading guess) but AT THIS TIME the co...

I agree. As some of you know, I just bought my first house 4 months ago just outside of Nashville. We finally got out of CA and bought a home well within our means. I have always been someone who had hoped for a housing crash, but until we see a major job-loss recession, I don't see desirable areas dropping much because there are very few renters in those areas. People have to live somewhere and moving is expensive and disruptive, so they'll just hunker down and hold onto their existing place at all cost. Of course, I could be very wrong.

Areas with lots of renters/investment properties will get slammed.

porkchopexpress says

Areas with lots of renters/investment properties will get slammed.

That has to include almost any major city.

@porkchopexpress,

That’s quite a generalized statement. Based on my research, each downturn cycle had hit each market segment differently. What you’re referring to is likely “neighborhood desirability” which tends to hold up better since buyers/owners in these neighborhoods are more established.

My partner and I did consider this fact when we started to invest in the early 2010’s. We concluded that more people tend to go back to school during a recession so we bought around SJSU, which is highly a renter’s market.

Interestingly, the Fed caused a housing bubble with their balance sheet. Now, they raise rates to pop the bubble. Homes become unaffordable so rents sky-rocket, feeding back into CPI, so the Fed raises rates more. Eventually, both will pop once job losses pick up. Rents should still be good as they have sky-rocketed during this rate hiking period. Giving back some would set it back to 2021-2022 level.

The Fed would then cut rates back down to…likely zero…again. Whoever has cash would be able to buy and finance properties for cheap while the average Joe couldn’t qualify for 💩 due to no job or low paying job. Then a new cycle begins. Rents would sky-rocket again as the average Joe is getting better paying job while big money benefits again. The Fed keeps transferring money from the have-nots to the haves after each recession cycle. That’s what I’ve learned based on my research.

Delinquency rates are still near all time lows as most have locked in low rates and there haven't been any significant layoffs. There's no crash in sight, certainly not in Commiefornia. It surprises me that even SF only had moderate declines in house prices, prob still enough chinamen willing to pay much dollares for a place in the shit infested city by the bay. Still cities will perform poorly, rural regions is where the appreciation is at for now.

I’ve been watching a home in Las Vegas. It’s extremely nice and located in a nice but slightly outlying area. It’s at a price where two years ago it would not have lasted a day. It’s now been sitting for over a month.

I’m guessing 15-20% reduction would get it sold. That’s massive. I think that’s below pre pandemic pricing. In the meantime it sits and will stay sitting.

Misc says

in California and now there's only 45% home ownership in the state and that is mostly from buyers from a long time ago.

Very few newcomers can afford a house. Makes more sense to rent.

This is why reform or repeal of Proposition 13 is as inevitable as demographics.

BayArea says

Realtors only value is if they are using connections to show you off market properties

Bro, I think they mistakenly referred to ®ealtors as realtors.

I saw on my local news rents have fallen 3%.

RC2006 says

I saw on my local news rents have fallen 3%.

Where is this?

Mortgage Holders Lose $1.3 Trillion in Equity in Q3 as Price Correction Continues; Nationally, Homes Shed 2.6% of Value Over Past Three Months.

According to the Black Knight Home Price Index, median home prices fell 0.52% in September, continuing a three-month streak of declines – but slowed at half the pace of the prior two months

Annualized appreciation slowed to 10.7% – still more than twice long-term norms – and, while indicative of continued correction, the 1.2% decline from August is the smallest seen in four months

Despite price corrections, home values in the nation’s 50 largest markets remain elevated by anywhere from 19% to 66% since the start of the pandemic

Still, $1.3T (-7.6%) in recently added equity vanished from the market in the third quarter, the largest quarterly dollar decline on record, and the largest on a percentage basis since 2009

Equity among mortgaged homes is now nearly $1.5T (-8.4%) off its May 2022 peak, with the equity of the average borrower down $30K from earlier this year

While additional declines may be on the horizon, equity positions remain strong; at $5T (46%) above pre-pandemic levels, the average mortgage holder still has more than $92K more equity than before

Though the number of underwater homeowners has climbed nearly 275K over the past four months –more than doubling the population – fewer than 500K homes are currently underwater nationwide

Nationally, 3.6% of borrowers are either underwater or have less than 10% equity, roughly half the pre-pandemic share; a historically and extremely low share (0.84%) are in negative equity positions.

https://www.blackknightinc.com/black-knights-september-2022-mortgage-monitor/

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/ym383q/request_for_advice_builder_going_under_and_taking/

Request for advice: Builder going under and taking the money with him

Next door neighbor in Carlsbad, CA sold his 1,800 square foot home for $1.1 million in August. House was built in 1977 and he bought it in the mid 1980's and has ton of equity.

Looks like some flippers bought the house and they were only planning on "modest" home improvements. But they have had folks working on the house (and pool!) for 3 months now. I'm estimating at least $200K has been put into the house so far. Probably more including all the big trees they cut down.

There are only 2 homes in my neighborhood for sale right now and they have been sitting for months with price reductions.

I think the flippers are going to lose their shirt on this house.

Roughly a 3 month supply of houses for sale on a national level.

socal2 says

I think the flippers are going to lose their shirt on this house.

Flippers be floppers.

Booger says

Roughly a 3 month supply of houses for sale on a national level.

I think that is considered an even market.

B.A.C.A.H. says

RC2006 says

I saw on my local news rents have fallen 3%.

Where is this?

Boise

Booger says

Roughly a 3 month supply of houses for sale on a national level.

6 months is classically a balanced market for sellers and buyers. I think most real estate news is clickbait currently based on interest rates and overarching economy. Until the supply hits that, at least locally, I wouldn't get worked up too much about house prices.

The Dems are going to get their asses handed to them tomorrow. If they want the executive branch next term, interest rates are coming down. Housing is not the weak spot currently. No one is building outside of where there's actual demand. No one is building subdivisions assuming they can sell 100 homes without there being a contract on the house.

Oil and supply chain issues are the biggest problem. Not ghetto people aborting children and women's rights. My wife makes more than most on this forum. Not a knock on anyone, but women are doing fine. The wealthy ones are conservative. And not the "wealthy" ones via the husband. Women that earn are conservative as fuck. My wife is probably more conservative than I am. Totally anti-abortion. Hates the taxes we pay even though she's a bit naive to what we pay. Deals with government daily and it chaps her ass. I got lucky our paths somehow aligned soon to be 25 years ago. Fuck, I'm getting old, but I'm still young(ish).

https://www.reddit.com/r/RealEstate/comments/ypq789/is_this_a_foreclosure_waiting_to_happen_or_am_i/

From $1,800 per month to $8,000+? Holy shit, mother of all bad decisions!

Glad to hear it on the "Bad Decision, Must Sell" post. Asshole ran from the mess he likely supported in CA and also help raise the price of homes in Snohomish. Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

https://www.reddit.com/r/FirstTimeHomeBuyer/comments/yp6qeu/i_dont_want_my_house_anymore/

I don't want my house anymore

I bought in early 2022. A house in CA for $590,000. But I no longer want it. My neighbors are annoying, I've been bleeding my savings into renovations, the layout is not what I want, and it's not in that desirable of an area.

I've been looking at the market and similar houses are going for under $500k. So I want to sell the one I have and buy a newer, better, and cheaper house.

The problem is though that I bought this place less than 6 months ago so I'm not even sure if it's possible to sell that soon. Unless I offload it to an ibuyer like redfin.

Does anyone know if selling in less than 6 months is a possibility? I understand I may sell at a loss but how bad is that really?

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent.

GNL says

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent.

It may have been the wife's job that bought in the most loot.

HeadSet says

GNL says

zzyzzx says

HeadSet says

Succumbed to "peer pressure" is just another way of saying "keep up with the Joneses."

Or the wife made him do it.

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent.

It may have been the wife's job that bought in the most loot.

Yes, could be. $$ don't make a person smart. I know a guy who owned a very successful printing company. The guy could not read or write.

Several new 'admitted' price cuts occurring in many units in Santa Cruz.

GNL says

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent

Rent house? Or pussy?

Onvacation says

GNL says

^^^^^^^^^. Pussy is hella expensive. Better to rent

Rent house? Or pussy?

Rent pussy. I don't really mean that but, anyone who's married for a length of time has thought it might have been smarter. I assume.

Eman says

That’s quite a generalized statement.

Good points.