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1337irr says

SHORT SALE! Trending for the win!

https://trends.google.com/trends/explore?geo=US&q=short+sale&hl=en

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Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad. I don't think it will housing wise. Forbearance would probably be the better search word. Banks learned they're not in the landlord/maintenance business last time and they suck balls at it. They want a payment, not property management. Any housing crash will be hidden. And price drops are likely in cities and they'll generally be minimal, mostly.

Major metro areas are for sure going to see problems though. The idea of going to an office, commuting and then picking around with other people at work is LESS productive than sitting in your underwear and actually getting the job done in 5 hours. Managers need to manage though. So they're going to insist on getting back to work at the office. Covid changed the whole dynamic of the work environment. I think for the better so people don't have to live in shit holes that are "close" to work.

WookieMan says

Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad

All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).

Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.

But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.

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WookieMan says

Banks won't mess around this time if it gets bad

All based on supply and demand, and also interest rates (even after buying down the maximum of 1% by buying 4% in discount points).

Ultimately a lot of purchases are driven by housing cost affordability standards such as no more than 35% of household income.

But I think a lot of homes are not underwater if prices drop 15%. And remember also there are no shit loans or subprime loans, as well as 2 or 3 year ARMs.

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@ad,

I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.

Eman says

I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.

In the same boat. Obviously buy what you can afford. 9 out of 10 times rates will come down from their highs. If you have to sell in two years and know that, probably better off renting. 5-7 years you should beat any cycle or crash and has the ability to refi to a lower rate if it's a forever home.

We're going to build with 7% interest rate. Just do what you can afford now and if the loan gets cheaper, refi. if rates go higher you got a deal. We have not intention of moving again for a decade and maybe 5 with winters in the Caribbean after 55 or so.

WookieMan says

If you have to sell in two years and know that, probably better off renting.

Correct.

Eman says

ad,

I’m not a fan of rate buy down unless you believe you could never refinance again due to your financial situation. It’s personal of course.

I look at my income that is counted toward a VA mortgage like VA disability pension, 1099 work, dividends (not capital gains from option trading), and my SEPP from my IRAs.

So I figure if I could increase housing affordability by lowering our 30 year mortgage rate 1% then I'll buy the 4% in discount points.

Hence, its an extra 4% in housing price, and I believe the VA allows 2% of discount points to be rolled into a mortgage.

I also compare that the affordability rule that a 1% increase in 30 year interest rate means a 10% increase in housing price.

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Again, in my East Coast FL area, the stubborn ass old home owners - and I'm talking 1200 sq ft early-mid 60s spacerace boom houses on 1/5th acre, carport (no garage), a 2 bedroom with the sunroom enclosed (badly), with HVAC often added later and poorly (ie enclosed sunroom only has one small vent, will be 5-10F hotter than the rest of house) - $280-299k.

VERSUS

Brand new DR Horton $281-306k for genuine 3 bedrooms with another 200 sq ft under air (1400-1600) a decent sized master suite with walk-in closets, new everything inc. built in USB ports, brand new and not undersized later added Central HVAC, roof, etc. AND the Builders unlike the homeloaners/inheritance kids are covering closing costs. Granted, they're zero lots, maybe 6000 sq ft total, but they come with 2-car garages.

I still just can't imagine paying north of $2000/month for a 3 bedroom/2 bath house or having to come up with ~$50-60k down.

AmericanKulak says

Again, in my East Coast FL area, the stubborn ass old home owners - and I'm talking 1200 sq ft early-mid 60s spacerace boom houses on 1/5th acre, carport (no garage), a 2 bedroom with the sunroom enclosed (badly), with HVAC often added later and poorly (ie enclosed sunroom only has one small vent, will be 5-10F hotter than the rest of house) - $280-299k.

VERSUS

Brand new DR Horton $281-306k for genuine 3 bedrooms with another 200 sq ft under air (1400-1600) a decent sized master suite with walk-in closets, new everything inc. built in USB ports, brand new and not undersized later added Central HVAC, roof, etc. AND the Builders unlike the homeloaners/inheritance kids are covering closing costs. Granted, they're zero lots, maybe 6000 sq ft total, but they come with 2-car garages.

I still just can't imagine paying north of $2000/month for a 3 bedroom/2 bath house or having to come up with ~$50-60k down.

To put things in perspective, people in San Jose pay $2k-$2.5k/month for a 1-bedroom apartment. People pay up to $3.5k/month for a 1-bedroom in San Francisco.

If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.

zzyzzx says

She could try the most effective way of selling a house, or anything for that matter

......lower the price

She already did. Probably can't go further.

Eman says

If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.

I think it's beyond that. I don't think people want to be in or near cities anymore. You have to drop 7 figures plus to be in the "nice" part of a city and even then you can still get haggled by homeless, wife raped, held up at gun point, house robbed, generally shit schools, etc. Is that really worth it? Parking sucks in any city I've been to. Public transit is gross and dangerous. Amenities on paper "seem" close but it still takes 20-30 minutes to get to anything. Layer in defunding police and the lack of moral in every major cities PD, it's a recipe for disaster.

I don't know, not knocking anyone particularly, but if you're staying in a city I say you're not that intelligent. Automobiles and planes exist if you want to visit family. Also it's okay to let go of the past. You can always make new friends and go back and visit the old. I don't even like large suburbs anymore. They're all run by liberal school board moms that know nothing.

I like rural. I dislike my driving, but if you maintain a vehicle well you'll do fine. You can also afford a nicer vehicle so it's more comfortable. You're generally closer to cool things to do that aren't available in a city unless you enjoy homelessness, graffiti and piss/shit/garbage everywhere. And I don't want to hear the weather excuse from CA, TX or FL people. Winter isn't difficult at all.

WFH is a thing and so is cost. But it literally makes no sense on paper to live in a city by any metric. Chicago is a clean(ish) city in the spots it wants to be. It's still gross. Traffic, noise, light pollution, garbage, no parking, bad transit, bad politics, etc. If you could define "hell on earth" in the dictionary or a thesaurus it would be "city."

WookieMan says

I like rural.

If I could find a location where I could see sunrise and sunset, it would possibly work for me irrespective of other considerations. Lived in Pittsburgh in a shitty home but had great view of the lovely downtown, loved it in the evenings. For cities; there is a video of a guy eating a sandwich during riots in France, one has to have this mindset, imho.

Yes, WFH is the dream. That and 40 acres with 5 dogs. Dogos.

Rubicon says

Yeah, I see it the same way. you probable know singles who like to live in the city as well? I have a few single colleagues and also single relatives that don’t want to live anywhere else but the city. I am guessing once they have found a partner and start a family they will move away.

I lived in Chicago just outside of downtown for about 6 years. I hated it, but had my fun pre-kids going out till 4am all around the city after work or school. I don't hate cities necessarily, but it's really only a spot for men and women to hook up really. Even if you need to go to work in a city it's generally not worth living in 99% of the time unless you're super wealthy.

I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least. Fortunately my wife found a job back where we grew up in the far west suburbs, so we moved back there. Eventually moved even further out and haven't looked back. If you're social enough and live in a small town it can be more fun than living in a city to be honest. Especially with kids. Kids need places to roam and be safe. That's not happening in any city I've been to.

Fact is in most cities, kids might not even see anything outside where they live. They don't know there's another world out there as much as that sounds weird. I don't know, I'm only down to a handful of people that live in cities either in IL or elsewhere that I know. I think once the millennials blow their wad in the city they're going to run for the country. I see rents and housing prices dropping. Not a crash. There's just no value in urban areas for the most part besides bars, restaurants and entertainment. You can have a whole hell of a lot more fun in rural areas with little to no regulation.

WookieMan says

I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least.

I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).

GNL says

WookieMan says

I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least.

I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).

Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.

mell says

Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.

It's a college town. Student population generally exits during the summer. Not saying it's bad, but it's not really a city realistically. 9 months of the year it is. For 3 months it's gonna be a ghost town. Actually now that you mention college towns I hate them more than cities. IL popular schools are NIU, WIU ISU, and U of I. They're generally in the middle of nowhere and they're miserable.

Wife went to WIU and it sucked at a level that was awful. My parents went there too. I'd go out to the University of Iowa almost every weekend. You could drive 100mph and there were no cops. That town sucked (Iowa City). UW Madison is gay. I really dislike college towns in the midwest. If you're into binge drinking have at it, but they're lame places to live full time. Generally pretty shitty maintained as well. Might be different in other parts of the country, but college towns in the midwest are pure shit.

WookieMan says

Generally pretty shitty maintained as well.

It's been 20 years easily, but Ann Arbor looked very well maintained and clean. Foos was great there too, as were the bars. But that's 2 decades ago.

mell says

WookieMan says

Generally pretty shitty maintained as well.

It's been 20 years easily, but Ann Arbor looked very well maintained and clean. Foos was great there too, as were the bars. But that's 2 decades ago.

It's probably all chains now. Sure there are probably local places that are good, but few and far between. You're probably looking at Chilis, BWW, Chipotle, etc. You have to find the dive bars in any city or town for the best food.

We did that in Nashville. No wife's or kids and was with a friend for a concert. Our hotel bartender, his brother and some random NFL player went out to the best Nashville dive bar. One of the weirdest days of my life. Buddy broke his leg previously and I got scissors from the front desk and we hacked his cast off at like 2am. I've been deemed a bad influence by his wife since, but it was still epic. It was his idea, not mine. I just got the scissors.

We lived outside of a tiny town called Alpena Mi.

Rubicon says

Bay Area is nuts

During errands I'd drive past this gem frequently.

It wasn't on the market very long when it sold at "peak" last summer.

In a ghetto neighborhood (note bars on windows), one house over from a busy road with one of the worst public high schools in the Bay Area on the other side.

Note the estimated rent versus ownership price (3800 vs 6700).

The privilege of ownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/

B.A.C.A.H. says

During errands I'd drive past this gem frequently.

Has a gorgeous view out the front of the East bay hills! What's not to like?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Rubicon says

Bay Area is nuts

During errands I'd drive past this gem frequently.

It wasn't on the market very long when it sold at "peak" last summer.

In a ghetto neighborhood (note bars on windows), one house over from a busy road with one of the worst public high schools in the Bay Area on the other side.

Note the estimated rent versus ownership price (3800 vs 6700).

The privilege of ownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/

Wow.

Serious question: what do most of these people do for a living? I can't imagine being a Doctor and live in something like this.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The privilege of ownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/

Are the bars to keep the adrenochrome child slaves from escaping, or the local thuggies from invading?

GNL says

Serious question: what do most of these people do for a living? I can't imagine being a Doctor and live in something like this.

Yes, and where do the janitors, waitresses, and other lower wage folks live?

What good is it to be a professional power couple if this is all you can afford?

Rubicon says

in mind a professional couple makes 250-300k combined there.

Isn't that poor for 2 people in SV?

GNL says

What good is it to be a professional power couple if this is all you can afford?

This says a lot about the love/hate relationship about the Bay Area. $250-$300k/year for a couple is pretty much hand-to-mouth. People, who make it here, love it. It’s the land of opportunity. People, who struggle, either move out of state, or whine and bitch about it. I would think the same applies to other expensive cities like LA and NY.

I like the Bay Area. I just hate its politics and the CA politicians. The moment we have to pay more than $50k/year in state income tax. I’ll buy a place in NV and claim residency there. Not there yet, but I’m working towards that way.

GNL says

what do most of these people do

Well..... one thing those savvy SF Bay Area homeowners do is pay property taxes.

One of their Privileges of Ownership for this "property" will be a tax bill of about $1,000 per month.

"It's ok, - you get it back on the appreciation". (Sky Is The Limit).

If you say so, homie.

HeadSet says

Yes, and where do the janitors, waitresses, and other lower wage folks live?

Far out, (but that's getting insane also), or in shabby beat up 1970's RVs on the streets. In backyard sheds, "not converted" garages, and being exploited hot bunking in shabby old apartments (those are everywhere, - just ask eman).

Increasingly, fewer of those folks exist in these parts. It's part of the reason queues are long, hours are shortened, restaurants close. Not enough of the Exploited Class go around serving the elites.

Does anyone have knowledge of why some high end areas have gone bust throughout history in some areas? Lots of reasons I suppose. Interesting to see where the Bay area is in 10, 20 years or so. It would stand to reason if no "staff" can afford to live close enough, the place will change. I'm no Nostradamus though. Maybe the left really do see themselves as the elite. It might explain why all of a sudden they now allow ADUs?

As much as the Bay Area is expensive, I can always find deals and live in a decent part of town for less than others. There’s always a solution for a problem. Be a problem solver rather than a whiner.

Just look at this 4plex in a decent part of town. It’s being surrounded by SFHs costing $1.5M or so. I checked it out last year. I asked the family if anyone wanted it. We could buy and keep it in the family. No one said anything.

I know both listing agents on this deal so I know at what price and terms I had to offer to get it. Live in the 3/2, and have 3 rentals for just over $2M. It’s right by the hospital so other units could easily convert to travel nurse rentals and collect $3.5-$4k/mo/unit. Why settle for a small SFH on Hopkins? 🤷‍♂️

https://redf.in/oK96Xz

GNL says

Does anyone have knowledge of why some high end areas have gone bust throughout history in some areas? Lots of reasons I suppose. Interesting to see where the Bay area is in 10, 20 years or so. It would stand to reason if no "staff" can afford to live close enough, the place will change. I'm no Nostradamus though. Maybe the left really do see themselves as the elite. It might explain why all of a sudden they now allow ADUs?

Can you share some of these high end areas that went bust? I’m not familiar with them.

Eman says

I know both listing agents on this deal so I know at what price and terms I had to offer to get it. Live in the 3/2, and have 3 rentals for just over $2M. It’s right by the hospital so other units could easily convert to travel nurse rentals and collect $3.5-$4k/mo/unit. Why settle for a small SFH on Hopkins? 🤷‍♂️

Who in the flying fuck wants to live in a 4 unit? Shared walls? Noise? City? Fuck that. I'd rather have minimum wage income than live like that out in the country. Been there and done that in Chicago. It was awful. Hell it was an 8 unit.

I don't really care about the net. At the end of the day you're living in a shit hole. Even the best of neighborhoods. Again, been there done that. Cities are the absolute worst place to invest currently.

WookieMan says

Eman says

I know both listing agents on this deal so I know at what price and terms I had to offer to get it. Live in the 3/2, and have 3 rentals for just over $2M. It’s right by the hospital so other units could easily convert to travel nurse rentals and collect $3.5-$4k/mo/unit. Why settle for a small SFH on Hopkins? 🤷‍♂️

Who in the flying fuck wants to live in a 4 unit? Shared walls? Noise? City? Fuck that. I'd rather have minimum wage income than live like that out in the country. Been there and done that in Chicago. It was awful. Hell it was an 8 unit.

I don't really care about the net. At the end of the day you're living in a shit hole. Even the best of neighborhoods. Again, been there done that. Cities are the absolute worst place to invest currently.

Let’s just say you don’t know about the area, and we don’t share the same value. We’ll have to agree to disagree.

Eman says

GNL says

Does anyone have knowledge of why some high end areas have gone bust throughout history in some areas? Lots of reasons I suppose. Interesting to see where the Bay area is in 10, 20 years or so. It would stand to reason if no "staff" can afford to live close enough, the place will change. I'm no Nostradamus though. Maybe the left really do see themselves as the elite. It might explain why all of a sudden they now allow ADUs?

Can you share some of these high end areas that went bust? I’m not familiar with them.

Wasn't Detroit a kind of equivalent of Bay Area in the heyday of American car manufacturing?

Is it possible for a place to out price itself? Or does that even make sense?

RWSGFY says

Wasn't Detroit a kind of equivalent of Bay Area in the heyday of American car manufacturing?

Yup. It was.

GNL says

Is it possible for a place to out price itself?

Yes.

GNL says

Is it possible for a place to out price itself? Or does that even make sense?

Based on what I’ve learned about history, as an area becomes more and more expensive, the population is being replaced from one class of people to another. Real estate appreciation should slow down in the future to a more sustainable level, but it would still be expensive for the average Joe/Jane.

The only way for an area to have real estate price collapse is the industry in that area to get wiped out like Detroit. Every time I thought it was over for the Bay Area, new innovations was born to keep the area thriving. It’s simply amazing and madness at the same time

Eman says

Rents are cooling in some markets.

Surprised Yuma isn't on that list. Although the drop has been more recent.