patrick.net

Rubicon says

Yeah, I see it the same way. you probable know singles who like to live in the city as well? I have a few single colleagues and also single relatives that don’t want to live anywhere else but the city. I am guessing once they have found a partner and start a family they will move away.

I lived in Chicago just outside of downtown for about 6 years. I hated it, but had my fun pre-kids going out till 4am all around the city after work or school. I don't hate cities necessarily, but it's really only a spot for men and women to hook up really. Even if you need to go to work in a city it's generally not worth living in 99% of the time unless you're super wealthy.

I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least. Fortunately my wife found a job back where we grew up in the far west suburbs, so we moved back there. Eventually moved even further out and haven't looked back. If you're social enough and live in a small town it can be more fun than living in a city to be honest. Especially with kids. Kids need places to roam and be safe. That's not happening in any city I've been to.

Fact is in most cities, kids might not even see anything outside where they live. They don't know there's another world out there as much as that sounds weird. I don't know, I'm only down to a handful of people that live in cities either in IL or elsewhere that I know. I think once the millennials blow their wad in the city they're going to run for the country. I see rents and housing prices dropping. Not a crash. There's just no value in urban areas for the most part besides bars, restaurants and entertainment. You can have a whole hell of a lot more fun in rural areas with little to no regulation.

WookieMan says

I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least.

I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).

GNL says

WookieMan says

I honestly put it at child abuse level to raise a kid in any major city in America at least.

I would agree with this. The best years of my life were in Michigan. My father was a logger and we lived on 10 acres in the middle of almost nowhere. We had a pet racoon and a pet fox even (they do NOT make good pets).

Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.

mell says

Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.

It's a college town. Student population generally exits during the summer. Not saying it's bad, but it's not really a city realistically. 9 months of the year it is. For 3 months it's gonna be a ghost town. Actually now that you mention college towns I hate them more than cities. IL popular schools are NIU, WIU ISU, and U of I. They're generally in the middle of nowhere and they're miserable.

Wife went to WIU and it sucked at a level that was awful. My parents went there too. I'd go out to the University of Iowa almost every weekend. You could drive 100mph and there were no cops. That town sucked (Iowa City). UW Madison is gay. I really dislike college towns in the midwest. If you're into binge drinking have at it, but they're lame places to live full time. Generally pretty shitty maintained as well. Might be different in other parts of the country, but college towns in the midwest are pure shit.

WookieMan says

Generally pretty shitty maintained as well.

It's been 20 years easily, but Ann Arbor looked very well maintained and clean. Foos was great there too, as were the bars. But that's 2 decades ago.

mell says

WookieMan says

Generally pretty shitty maintained as well.

It's been 20 years easily, but Ann Arbor looked very well maintained and clean. Foos was great there too, as were the bars. But that's 2 decades ago.

It's probably all chains now. Sure there are probably local places that are good, but few and far between. You're probably looking at Chilis, BWW, Chipotle, etc. You have to find the dive bars in any city or town for the best food.

We did that in Nashville. No wife's or kids and was with a friend for a concert. Our hotel bartender, his brother and some random NFL player went out to the best Nashville dive bar. One of the weirdest days of my life. Buddy broke his leg previously and I got scissors from the front desk and we hacked his cast off at like 2am. I've been deemed a bad influence by his wife since, but it was still epic. It was his idea, not mine. I just got the scissors.

We lived outside of a tiny town called Alpena Mi.

Rubicon says

Bay Area is nuts

During errands I'd drive past this gem frequently.

It wasn't on the market very long when it sold at "peak" last summer.

In a ghetto neighborhood (note bars on windows), one house over from a busy road with one of the worst public high schools in the Bay Area on the other side.

Note the estimated rent versus ownership price (3800 vs 6700).

The privilege of ownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/

B.A.C.A.H. says

During errands I'd drive past this gem frequently.

Has a gorgeous view out the front of the East bay hills! What's not to like?

B.A.C.A.H. says

Rubicon says

Bay Area is nuts

During errands I'd drive past this gem frequently.

It wasn't on the market very long when it sold at "peak" last summer.

In a ghetto neighborhood (note bars on windows), one house over from a busy road with one of the worst public high schools in the Bay Area on the other side.

Note the estimated rent versus ownership price (3800 vs 6700).

The privilege of ownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/

Wow.

Serious question: what do most of these people do for a living? I can't imagine being a Doctor and live in something like this.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The privilege of ownership.

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1785-Hopkins-Dr-San-Jose-CA-95122/19727040_zpid/

Are the bars to keep the adrenochrome child slaves from escaping, or the local thuggies from invading?

GNL says

Serious question: what do most of these people do for a living? I can't imagine being a Doctor and live in something like this.

Yes, and where do the janitors, waitresses, and other lower wage folks live?

What good is it to be a professional power couple if this is all you can afford?

Rubicon says

in mind a professional couple makes 250-300k combined there.

Isn't that poor for 2 people in SV?

GNL says

What good is it to be a professional power couple if this is all you can afford?

This says a lot about the love/hate relationship about the Bay Area. $250-$300k/year for a couple is pretty much hand-to-mouth. People, who make it here, love it. It’s the land of opportunity. People, who struggle, either move out of state, or whine and bitch about it. I would think the same applies to other expensive cities like LA and NY.

I like the Bay Area. I just hate its politics and the CA politicians. The moment we have to pay more than $50k/year in state income tax. I’ll buy a place in NV and claim residency there. Not there yet, but I’m working towards that way.

GNL says

what do most of these people do

Well..... one thing those savvy SF Bay Area homeowners do is pay property taxes.

One of their Privileges of Ownership for this "property" will be a tax bill of about $1,000 per month.

"It's ok, - you get it back on the appreciation". (Sky Is The Limit).

If you say so, homie.

HeadSet says

Yes, and where do the janitors, waitresses, and other lower wage folks live?

Far out, (but that's getting insane also), or in shabby beat up 1970's RVs on the streets. In backyard sheds, "not converted" garages, and being exploited hot bunking in shabby old apartments (those are everywhere, - just ask eman).

Increasingly, fewer of those folks exist in these parts. It's part of the reason queues are long, hours are shortened, restaurants close. Not enough of the Exploited Class go around serving the elites.

Does anyone have knowledge of why some high end areas have gone bust throughout history in some areas? Lots of reasons I suppose. Interesting to see where the Bay area is in 10, 20 years or so. It would stand to reason if no "staff" can afford to live close enough, the place will change. I'm no Nostradamus though. Maybe the left really do see themselves as the elite. It might explain why all of a sudden they now allow ADUs?

As much as the Bay Area is expensive, I can always find deals and live in a decent part of town for less than others. There’s always a solution for a problem. Be a problem solver rather than a whiner.

Just look at this 4plex in a decent part of town. It’s being surrounded by SFHs costing $1.5M or so. I checked it out last year. I asked the family if anyone wanted it. We could buy and keep it in the family. No one said anything.

I know both listing agents on this deal so I know at what price and terms I had to offer to get it. Live in the 3/2, and have 3 rentals for just over $2M. It’s right by the hospital so other units could easily convert to travel nurse rentals and collect $3.5-$4k/mo/unit. Why settle for a small SFH on Hopkins? 🤷‍♂️

https://redf.in/oK96Xz

GNL says

Does anyone have knowledge of why some high end areas have gone bust throughout history in some areas? Lots of reasons I suppose. Interesting to see where the Bay area is in 10, 20 years or so. It would stand to reason if no "staff" can afford to live close enough, the place will change. I'm no Nostradamus though. Maybe the left really do see themselves as the elite. It might explain why all of a sudden they now allow ADUs?

Can you share some of these high end areas that went bust? I’m not familiar with them.

Eman says

I know both listing agents on this deal so I know at what price and terms I had to offer to get it. Live in the 3/2, and have 3 rentals for just over $2M. It’s right by the hospital so other units could easily convert to travel nurse rentals and collect $3.5-$4k/mo/unit. Why settle for a small SFH on Hopkins? 🤷‍♂️

Who in the flying fuck wants to live in a 4 unit? Shared walls? Noise? City? Fuck that. I'd rather have minimum wage income than live like that out in the country. Been there and done that in Chicago. It was awful. Hell it was an 8 unit.

I don't really care about the net. At the end of the day you're living in a shit hole. Even the best of neighborhoods. Again, been there done that. Cities are the absolute worst place to invest currently.

WookieMan says

Eman says

I know both listing agents on this deal so I know at what price and terms I had to offer to get it. Live in the 3/2, and have 3 rentals for just over $2M. It’s right by the hospital so other units could easily convert to travel nurse rentals and collect $3.5-$4k/mo/unit. Why settle for a small SFH on Hopkins? 🤷‍♂️

Who in the flying fuck wants to live in a 4 unit? Shared walls? Noise? City? Fuck that. I'd rather have minimum wage income than live like that out in the country. Been there and done that in Chicago. It was awful. Hell it was an 8 unit.

I don't really care about the net. At the end of the day you're living in a shit hole. Even the best of neighborhoods. Again, been there done that. Cities are the absolute worst place to invest currently.

Let’s just say you don’t know about the area, and we don’t share the same value. We’ll have to agree to disagree.

Eman says

GNL says

Does anyone have knowledge of why some high end areas have gone bust throughout history in some areas? Lots of reasons I suppose. Interesting to see where the Bay area is in 10, 20 years or so. It would stand to reason if no "staff" can afford to live close enough, the place will change. I'm no Nostradamus though. Maybe the left really do see themselves as the elite. It might explain why all of a sudden they now allow ADUs?

Can you share some of these high end areas that went bust? I’m not familiar with them.

Wasn't Detroit a kind of equivalent of Bay Area in the heyday of American car manufacturing?

Is it possible for a place to out price itself? Or does that even make sense?

RWSGFY says

Wasn't Detroit a kind of equivalent of Bay Area in the heyday of American car manufacturing?

Yup. It was.

GNL says

Is it possible for a place to out price itself?

Yes.

GNL says

Is it possible for a place to out price itself? Or does that even make sense?

Based on what I’ve learned about history, as an area becomes more and more expensive, the population is being replaced from one class of people to another. Real estate appreciation should slow down in the future to a more sustainable level, but it would still be expensive for the average Joe/Jane.

The only way for an area to have real estate price collapse is the industry in that area to get wiped out like Detroit. Every time I thought it was over for the Bay Area, new innovations was born to keep the area thriving. It’s simply amazing and madness at the same time

Eman says

Rents are cooling in some markets.

Surprised Yuma isn't on that list. Although the drop has been more recent.

mell says

Even leftoid Michigan is nice. At least last time I was in Ann Arbor it was pretty nice. May have changed by now who knows.

Biggest change would be the chemical smell and the acid rain..

Eman says

If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.

People have been leaving in droves for years prior to the Scamdemic. The state has been anti-business since Adobe and Yahoo left. It's been anti-normal for a long time, and the normies got tired of it.

NuttBoxer says

Eman says

If I can work from home, I’m out of here. This explains the exodus of Californians to other states thanks to the pandemic and WFH.

People have been leaving in droves for years prior to the Scamdemic. The state has been anti-business since Adobe and Yahoo left. It's been anti-normal for a long time, and the normies got tired of it.

Stats don’t seem to agree with your observation. Indeed CA has seen people leaving since the pandemic, but not prior.

Does that chart account for illegals? Or the people who sold to move into a mansion elsewhere? On that second point they had to sell to someone, but I do give preference to long term residents over ones who just got here.

Eman says

GNL says

Is it possible for a place to out price itself? Or does that even make sense?

Based on what I’ve learned about history, as an area becomes more and more expensive, the population is being replaced from one class of people to another. Real estate appreciation should slow down in the future to a more sustainable level, but it would still be expensive for the average Joe/Jane.

The only way for an area to have real estate price collapse is the industry in that area to get wiped out like Detroit. Every time I thought it was over for the Bay Area, new innovations was born to keep the area thriving. It’s simply amazing and madness at the same time

The bay area isn't the only place.

Eman says

GNL says

Is it possible for a place to out price itself? Or does that even make sense?

Based on what I’ve learned about history, as an area becomes more and more expensive, the population is being replaced from one class of people to another. Real estate appreciation should slow down in the future to a more sustainable level, but it would still be expensive for the average Joe/Jane.

The only way for an area to have real estate price collapse is the industry in that area to get wiped out like Detroit. Every time I thought it was over for the Bay Area, new innovations was born to keep the area thriving. It’s simply amazing and madness at the same time

Northern Virginia is crazy also. I don't understand these housing doomers.

I can't help but believe somethings no Bueno though.

GNL says

Every time I thought it was over for the Bay Area, new innovations was born to keep the area thriving.

It's a self-selected population of newcomers.

Haolies and second generation of some non-haolie immigrants continue to leave. They're replaced mainly by Asian immigrants and south-of-the-border (including many illegal "migrant") types.

For these folks, even being packed like rats hot bunking in shabby old apartments and homes, backyard sheds and garages is comfortably palatial living compared to where they came from. This is the dynamism of "Silicon Valley" and the SF Bay Area. If you can't "make it here" like the ®eal Estate moguls of Hong Kong, well then you just don't have what it takes: you're a Lazy and Stupid Loser.

There are good reasons to get bearish on commercial real estate, especially the office space, but don’t overly be bearish. The owners and developers will find a way to make use of the space if they can’t lease them out. Here’s an example:

https://www.sfgate.com/local/article/viral-bay-area-zillow-listing-office-to-housing-18199614.php

I also saw an office building got converted into a Public Storage. Very well done.

A bunch of business's have to shutter due to economic downturn(reasons don't matter). Further people are leaving cities(again reasons don't matter). Further more people are working from home. CRE should have blown up at least a year ago.

“Northern Virginia is crazy also. I don't understand these housing doomers.

I can't help but believe somethings no Bueno though.”

@GNL,

The same thing happens here. Some cities priced out even the professionals. I can only gather knowledge from history and Bay Area retirees/veteran real estate investors, and make me bets accordingly, rightly or wrongly.

Just want to make my stay on this earth as enjoyable as possible. Can’t take anything with me when I’m gone. However, I’m willing to put in the hard work for 10 years so I can enjoy 40 years rather than the other way around. It’s a personal choice.

NuttBoxer says

A bunch of business's have to shutter due to economic downturn(reasons don't matter). Further people are leaving cities(again reasons don't matter). Further more people are working from home. CRE should have blown up at least a year ago.

If it should have blown up at least a year ago, why hasn’t it blown up, or could it be that the blow up is not as big as people anticipate?

Ok, so what's going to happen...

1) Rates come down and save the economy by making housing valuations shoot the moon.

2) Home values come down and save the economy by RE transactions shooting the moon.

3) RE transactions keep going lower until incomes double and everyone can afford a home and we are saved.

4) RE valuations and rates stay where they are and transactions founder. This cause the economy to fall off a cliff because so much of our economy depends of household formation.