patrick.net

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Maybe we'll see a drop in restaurant prices, vacation rental prices,

I am sitting on the beach at the Jersey shore right now. I booked well in advance and got a great rate. I usually have to wait until September to get rates this cheap. Of course if I wait until last week or something it would have cost $80/night more.

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Car prices down due to lower demand (because of car loan interest rates rising) and also increased supply of newer automobiles.


https://finance.yahoo.com/news/car-market-just-flipped-10-130024504.html

The average price for a new vehicle in July was $44,700, a massive flip of $3,243 compared to the price in January, as reported by Kelley Blue Book. Prices have fallen by 1.7% since the start of the year, marking the first significant decline in car prices since supply shortages began affecting the industry in 2021.

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1) Weaker than expected jobs growth for August 2023 report: https://www.usnews.com/news/economy/articles/2023-08-30/adp-employers-add-fewer-jobs-than-expected-as-hospitality-sector-slows

2) Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia data seems to show recession has started: https://mishtalk.com/economics/philadelphia-fed-gdpplus-measure-sure-looks-like-recession-started-in-2022-q4/

See the above 2 links. More layoffs such as 7% of T mobile's white collar workforce means less middle to upper class who can go on vacation, buy a new car, etc.

It does not help that the Fed Funds rate is at 22 year high. But this tells me inflation should continue to trend downward.

I predict an unemployment rate of at least 5% by spring 2024, but there may be a lot of manipulation and lying such as reporting an economic recovery by late summer 2024.

Its all about the Dems keeping the White House, and they can't cheat enough to win an election during a recession.

So expect a lot of continued lies about the economy such as inflation and economic growth at least through early November 2024..

The problem is the Dems control everything from the federal bureaucracy that calculate the economic statistics to the mainstream media outlets that report what is spoon fed to them by the Birdbrain Biden admin.

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PCE rose by 0.2% from June 2023 to July 2023. I am focusing on monthly changes due to the "baseline effect" of comparing inflation to 12 months ago.

As long as annual inflation continues to remain below 4% for the next 6 months, and monthly increases are no more than 0.35% then I think inflation will continue to trend downward.

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https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/2023/08/31/july-pce-inflation-report-today/70723559007/

"An inflation measure that’s watched closely by the Federal Reserve edged higher in July, possibility raising the chances that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates again this year.

Consumer prices increased 3.3% from a year earlier, above the 3% pace in June but below the 40-year high of 7% in June 2022, the Commerce Department said Thursday.

Much of the July rise was due to the fact that inflation already had started to slow somewhat by July 2022 and so the gap in prices between that month and July 2023 was larger.

On a monthly basis, prices rose 0.2%, in line with June’s increase, according to the personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index."

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Saudi Arabia to extend production cuts. Go to Ycharts and look at world rig county and oil rig count; they are still way below early 2020 levels.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-30/saudi-arabia-expected-to-prolong-oil-cut-again-survey-shows

Wonder what Birdbrain Biden is going to do if this extends into 2024. Or maybe he'll make a deal with them so that oil prices rise again after the November 2024 election.

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In this rare instance, the Saudis may actually help America by impeding Pedo Peter.

The second revision is noticeably less than the original estimate for each month. They need a recession at least 9 months before the November 2024 election.

That gives the Democrats enough time to claim an economic recovery when campaigning in August through October.

They need 3 months of constant news broadcasting about how the economy has improved, just like Clinton's first campaign was all about "its the economy stupid".
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AI like ChapGPT expected to replace coders, paralegals, teachers, and graphic artists among the jobs most affected.

https://www.businessinsider.com/chatgpt-jobs-at-risk-replacement-artificial-intelligence-ai-labor-trends-2023-02

Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?

Or think about how telephone operators had been affected by technology, or even how the US Postal Service has seen a drop in mail due to email, electronic payments, etc.

This means that labor costs will drop some for companies that use AI more, which should mean less inflation.

Look at how a lot of customer service agents are AI and it takes several minutes to work with them to finally chat with a customer service agent who is a real person.

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Roku to lay off 10% of its workforce as reported by CNBC today. It already laid off about 12% since last November.

Let's track credit card debt delinquencies and the unemployment rate for the next 6 months.

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Is AI going to do to coders like word processing did to clerk typists and it replacing the typist pool at work ?

No. I've played around with it quite a bit. It's very useful for doing basic things really quickly, but ask it to do something difficult and it will produce a result, that doesn't work.

I think it's going to compliment coders considerably actually.

If I ask it to make a CRC32 routine, it will do it. If I ask it to make a web-socket for use with Apache, it will give a solution, but it won't work.

https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2023/sep/6/biden-cancels-all-oil-gas-drilling-leases-alaskan-/

Biden cancels all oil, gas drilling leases in Alaskan Arctic wildlife refuge...

Interior Department Secretary Deb Haaland authorized the cancellations of seven leases held by Alaska’s state-owned economic development agency, the Alaska Industrial Development and Export Authority, in the remote coastal region that sprawls more than 19 million acres bordering Canada to the east and the Beaufort Sea to the north.

Biden's deliberate increases in the cost of oil and gas are the primary driver of inflation.

Debt GDP ratio steadying around 120%. It was around 105% when Obama left office. It peaked in 2021 around 135%.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/gfdegdq188S

Debt interest has increased so that means greater deficits

https://abc3340.com/news/nation-world/federal-budget-deficit-projected-to-double-to-2-trillion-us-debt-government-spending-gdp-interest-rates-social-security-medicare-program-reform

The same style car would cost about $40,000 and the median wage is around $58,000.

Back in 1968 the median wage was around $8,000 and this car is priced around $3,000.

It just shows how much cars costs in regards to purchasing power of the median wage owner :-(
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I received this today via email. Amazon getting into telemedicine. I wonder if this type of service will help to keep medical costs down and if insurance companies will encourage its use. Also, Amazon Pharmacy has been in operating since 2020.
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ad says

I wonder if this type of service will help to keep medical costs down

No.

The purpose is to reduce costs for them, not for you.

Because everything happens in a vacuum...let's just raise wages...that will give workers a benefit. Other prices????? Higher wages won't lead to those going up, and besides government workers will get a COLA.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/companies/mcdonald-s-franchisee-group-says-new-california-fast-food-bill-will-cause-devastating-financial-blow/ar-AA1gMpw6?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=5e0083dba2e542ca92ee16e328cf57dd&ei=38

When you sell 180 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Reserve, and the price of oil subsequently drops below $70 a barrel; you look like a hero.

When you forget to restock the Reserve at that lower price and oil goes higher than where you sold it at....welll....you look like a Putz.

https://rudy.substack.com/p/inflation-is-not-a-partisan-issue

https://www.lewrockwell.com/2023/09/david-stockman/the-bls-pointy-heads-and-monetary-mission-impossible/

It was CPI day. So it might be expected that some anomaly in the monthly data would provide a timely reminder that Washington’s main inflation index isn’t all it’s cracked up to be. In the context of our Monetary Mission Impossible series, it also provides further proof that the Fed’s fanatical quest to reach its 2.00% inflation goal is utterly misguided.

As it happens, the number -33.6% contained in the August CPI report fulfills both of these expectations and then some. This figure supposedly represents the Y/Y plunge in the cost of medical insurance!

That’s right. Anything connected to the medical delivery system was up by hefty amounts in August on a Y/Y basis, but the thundering collapse (purportedly) of health insurance costs allegedly saved the day. As shown below, according to the BLS the index for overall medical services was down -2.1% on a Y/Y basis in August when all of its other components where positive, some of them like dental care and home health services strikingly so.

Y/Y Change In CPI Medical Services And Its Components:

Dental services: +5.3%;
Eye care:+3.4%;
Physicians: +0.3%;
Home health services: +6.9%;
Hospital services:+3.0%;
Nursing home care: +6.1%;
Health insurance: -33.6%;
Overall Medical Care Services: -2.1%

... Yet that’s where the monetary politburo now finds itself impaled. That is, squinting at 27% of the CPI (i.e. the supercore) in order to calibrate its anti-inflation “tools” when this sawed-off inflation metric is so distorted by the BLS’s whacko health insurance proxy that it’s not worth the paper it’s printed on.

Unemployment rate is 3.8%. It was as low as 3.5% right before the pandemic started. Healthy unemployment rate is between 4% and 6%.

I am not sure how high it may go for the next recession, but we have a way to go for unemployment to get to that point.

I suspect when it reaches around 5.5% then we may be near the middle of the next recession.

An inflation rate between 4% and 6% corresponds to keeping wage inflation in check as the labor market has tightened however the market is still near or at full employment conditions.

I read Google has conducted another round of layoffs, this time to its recruiters workforce; it has indicated it is hiring less. That's a good sign as far as the labor market tightening so that inflation may continue to decrease.

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Patrick says

Health insurance: -33.6%;

Eventually the accountants are going to have to adjust this. And it is going to have to be adjusted by the end of this year, not right after the November 2024 election.

If at best, health insurance will go up 3% from December 2022 to December 2023. My estimate is that overall medical care services will finish between +6% to +10% for the end of 2024.

But no way will this aggregate or component remain in negative double digits or even negative single digits going into 2024.

Misc says

restock the Reserve

Yeah, look at the timing of this. It started around March 2022 and ended around mid October 2022 (right before the midterm election). If gas prices stayed high in 2022, then I don't know if the Dems would have fared well in the House election.

Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up. He cannot tap the depleted reserves like he
did in 2022 leading into the 2024 election.

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Focus on workforce participation such as prime working age (25 to 54 years)

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNS11300060

Look at the overall (all age groups) labor participation percentage rate (62.8%) and it is only 0.5% below Feb 2020 level, and only 4.5% below its peak in late 2000.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CIVPART

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Work for home doesn't apply for jobs with a lot of vacancies like air condition repair, nursing home attendant, car mechanic, etc.

Need more worker supply for those service areas to help bring down CPI and PCE services

Unless there are significantly more productivity gains such as more reliable air conditioners and cars which need less repair, etc.

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ad says

Birdbrain Biden is fucked cause now OPEC and Russia is cutting production and the price of gas has gone up.

You've seen ballot fraud magic once.

need robots and automation to increase productivity if the total worker participation rate is going to continue to decline due to demographics ...unless people continue to work at least part time between the ages of 65 and 80 ....
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Check out inflation in Lebanon.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lebanese_liquidity_crisis

There is also significant inflation, which caused a massive loss of purchasing power and an increase in poverty. The price of foule or ful, a fava bean common in the region, was up 550% in March 2020 over a year earlier. Sugar has seen an increase of 670%, while wheat, tea, rice, and cigarettes have all gone up nearly 1,000% over the same period.

Argentina and Turkey also having massive inflation.

And our all time favorite Zimbabwe:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hyperinflation_in_Zimbabwe
Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.

And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.

zzyzzx says

Since the start of the Russia-Ukraine conflict, Zimbabwe's inflation rate shot up from 66% to more than 130% in May 2022. By June 2022, it surged again to 191%.

And of course Wikipedia is blaming the war instead of money printing for inflation, because they have an agenda.

Rhodesia is still a food exporter. So one would think their current account is in surplus.

Basically, they were using foreign notes...then switched to a new currency but wrecked it like all the others.

On the plus side, they are supposedly adopting a gold system this year. Let's see if the gold held in reserve gets stolen.

...or even if this happens at all.

In April 2023, the government announced the introduction of digital currencies backed by gold reserves. The digital money will be allowed to be transferred for people and business as a form of payment via e-gold wallets or e-gold cards.

ad says

need robots and automation to increase productivity if the total worker participation rate is going to continue to decline due to demographics

This is why the southern border is wide open I would reckon. The influx of 7 MILLION people from all over the world since Biden 'took' office might have some impact.
Some of them will probably get jobs.

Biden went full krazy reading the script handed to him about oil and gas. Even Obama was careful and nuanced. And now the Saudis are going to make Birdbrain Biden pay for this for the next 12 months.

Unless Biden makes some deals to get oil prices to drop between now and the 2024 election, and then rise again after the election.

Look at how he used the strategic oil reserves from March to October 2022 and then oil prices rises again after the midterm election. That helped to make sure the House was not taken over by a large Republican majority.