patrick.net

AmericanKulak says

"This is sustainable, never mind 7% mortgage rates! You chicken Littles!"

You left off the end of the chart where the prices go back up after January 2023. Many people have this belief that this time is different, and that prices of real assets will decline during this period of inflation.

Since most real estate transactions have historically been done with financing, I can see why people would think that based on only a slightly higher-take-home pay, that the massive increase in interest rates would curtail the buying power and hence the price of SFHs. This begs the question, "What did the price of SFHs do the last time interest rates were at this level?" - The answer is...they went up.

Misc says

You left off the end of the chart where the prices go back up after January 2023. Many people have this belief that this time is different, and that prices of real assets will decline during this period of inflation.

I snapped the chart exactly as it showed by default on the St. Louis page.

The last few decades were freaks. Demographics are all negative for the housing market. Boomers aren't gonna live forever, and many are depending on getting the cash out their house. Those who aren't, will need to sell due to health or death or fixed income from having to carry their old house and their retirement property. Sure, for a while people can hold out. But not for years and years.

New House prices are now cheaper than Used Houses, and builders are offering superior financing to most banks.

However much Boomers don't want to lower their price, because they can't climb up the stairs to the bedrooms...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6xGqi5itxs

Wah, Wah-ah-ah-ah-ahhhhh...

You wonder how I'm feeling, tinitus is ringing in my ears.
I slipped down the stairway, I'm laying in my pee.
Now Depends I can believe in
When I've fallen on the floor.
Gotta hit the Lifealert Button. Which child do I phone ?
My lights are out and shining. But all I really want to know...

I need to sell my house, can't climb up to the Loo
Gotta take $100k less, so I can do my ADUs.

Now my kids live 3 states away,
They can't do the shopping for me...

AmericanKulak says

I need to sell my house, can't climb up to the Loo
Gotta take $100k less, so I can do my ADUs.

Now my kids live 3 states away,
They can't do the shopping for me...

They should sleep in their coffins so their 'sudden vax death' doesn't lead to cumbersome disposal inefficiencies.

OH_love_thy_Putin says

awaiting moderation

I understand. I'm not going to moderate comments I'm involved in. I have no issue with you whatsoever. I know you had quoted me and I think Patrick made a mistake or someone else flagging it. No biggie. I'll stand by anything I've said when you come after my family, again, not you another user, I don't care about the rules. Another user attacked me under bull shit premises. He needs to stay in his lane.

OH_love_thy_Putin says

awaiting moderation

WookieMan says

OH_love_thy_Putin says

awaiting moderation

I understand. I'm not going to moderate comments I'm involved in. I have no issue with you whatsoever. I know you had quoted me and I think Patrick made a mistake or someone else flagging it. No biggie. I'll stand by anything I've said when you come after my family, again, not you another user, I don't care about the rules. Another user attacked me under bull shit premises. He needs to stay in his lane.

I hope this isn't a reax to my shit. If it is people need to get some humor. I'm actually on the subject matter.

Here's my next one, I call it "Nitro Haze"

(Guitar moving between octaves)

Nitro Pills all in my chest,
My Heart Health, not the best
Can't get a boner,
And that's the case,

Scuse me while I markdown my place

Motivated seller, got hives and chills
Took 10% off cos Lisinopril
Medicare Premium is going high
Another 5% discount, I'm gonna cry

Help me, help me
I gotta prepay for Shady Oak
Help me, help me,
Before I have another Stroke

Oh I can't go on like this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cJunCsrhJjg

AmericanKulak says

I hope this isn't a reax to my shit. If it is people need to get some humor. I'm actually on the subject matter.

Not you. Called him out by name already, but am not doing it again. You and I have had disagreements in the past, but you've alway been civil with me and we can have a conversation/discussion. This wasn't that. I have no clue what's been flagged at this point and don't care. Keep my fucking family out of it. I don't give a shit what I share here. You have another thing coming if you do that. Again this is not directed at you AK.

A steal at $450k! You won't find a basement lounge like this in a new build! My ex-wives and I got down in this room, imagine the chicks you'll get in here.

Oh those were the days, boy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Gs069dndIYk

Misc says

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

These "pods" are marketed to AI startup employees, not bums, lol.

So, they only sleep one person?

No, the H1B's would be sleeping in shifts trying to save a buck.

Bingo!

Misc says

No, the H1B's would be sleeping in shifts trying to save a buck.

yeah, eating Ramen noodles, not bitching about being exploited and working hard and long hours, and saving a lot of money to send back home to India, etc.

.

ad says

$700 a month "bed pods" in San Fran are ruled not safe

Interestingly, the building inspectors didn't take issue with the pods themselves.

Within five days, the firm must replace the lock with a type that doesn’t require a key to leave, in case of emergency, and must obtain permits within 30 days for the shower installation, the notice says. Brownstone also has 30 days to file a “change of use” permit to legalize the conversion to a residential space and the installation of the sleeping pods or, the notice says, the firm could revert the property to its “last known legal condition.”

EBGuy says

Interestingly, the building inspectors didn't take issue with the pods themselves.

True, as I would think in a progressive urban area that safety and hygiene would be a top priority.

What is the guideline on occupancy ? Is it based on number of bathrooms such as no more than 3 occupants per bathroom ?

ad says

yeah, eating Ramen noodles, not bitching about being exploited and working hard and long hours, and saving a lot of money to send back home to India, etc.

Bro,

I was immersed in departments chocked full of H1's. For a while, I even reported to an engineering manager who was H-1. Funny story about that guy below.

It's true that there's warrens of the folks you mention packed like rats into apartments in places like Sunnyvale. That said, the typical path to the H-1 is to complete graduate school in the US. First, a BS degree "back home", then transfer to the US for the graduate degree. Grad school is where they make connections to be hired for a US job that will sponsor the H-1.

It takes money to get a solid BS degree in places like India. Lots of money, like the 1% of that country of over a billion people. And it takes money to send them to the US for their graduate school, - foreign student tuition, living expense, etc. I know about the warrens of exploited ones like you mentioned, I've even seen them for myself. But don't forget many, maybe most, of them come from billionaire 1% type families "back home".

(*). If the guy left the US he'd have to reapply for the visa. So, during one of his long vacations, he went to Mexico. Caught flights from there to Mumbai where he found his wife (probably she was already chosen in prearrangement between the two Hindu families). Came back home through Mexico, paid a coyote to get him back into the US. He only told us about all this after he was safely returned.

When he finally got his green card his wife joined him here.

LOL!

https://t.me/volmemes/29962

ad says

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

Good Luck with that. Most areas I know of renting anything is difficult, and pricey. I'll stick with my over priced home, thank you. Instead of reaping some quick short term profits only to have to spend it all on rent.

8% reached!

Yep, a lot of the "Smart" money was shorting longer term Treasuries over the last couple of weeks. I wonder how leveraged they got. Looks like there are a bunch of Hedge Funds blowing up as we speak. The 10 year down 15 basis points, stock futures flying, this ain't a normal trading environment. The "Smart" money is selling what they can and reversing their short positions to meet their margin calls. They are praying for a hot CPI print to come out, but that won't happen till Thursday. I don't think they will be able to hold on that long.

To put it in perspective the price of 10 year bonds went up about 3%. That's for the whole bond market not stock market but Bond market. You are supposed to be able to go 10 times leverage on treasuries so that's a loss of 30% overnight, and I bet some of those crazies are even more leveraged.

10/10/23

AmericanKulak says

8% reached!

Still way too low.

AmericanKulak says

8% reached!

Good, but that may be a temporary reaction to the Israeli-Hamas conflict.

This was posted by someone her recently. Saw it again today because someone I know shared it with me. I've always heard people on this site justify their housing debt by saying they won't their homes in an economic collapse. I've pointed out the absurdity of thinking wages will keep up with inflation, but I've always worried about asset seizure as another avenue, and apparently I'm not wrong. Don't owe anyone anything, best policy.

https://mpalmer.heresy.is/webnotes/TheGreatTaking/Prologue.html

AmericanKulak says

8% reached!

A bald-faced lie!

The Housing Experts of PatNet insisted this would never happen and derided those who said otherwise.

Normalcy Bias kills. Just ask the Israelis.

EBGuy says

ad says

$700 a month "bed pods" in San Fran are ruled not safe

Interestingly, the building inspectors didn't take issue with the pods themselves.

Within five days, the firm must replace the lock with a type that doesn’t require a key to leave, in case of emergency, and must obtain permits within 30 days for the shower installation, the notice says. Brownstone also has 30 days to file a “change of use” permit to legalize the conversion to a residential space and the installation of the sleeping pods or, the notice says, the firm could revert the property to its “last known legal condition.”

Are you saying that the whole thing was sensationalized by unscrupulous journos or some twattering attention whores? That has never happened before!!!

.

From what I've seen the 30 year mortgage rate is about 1.5% greater than the 10 Year Treasury.

However the rate has been a lot more than the yield for the 10 Year Treasury over the last 12 to 18 months.

Number of home sales is going to drop to just above Zero. The Fed is trying to cause home prices to return to late 2020 price levels.

.

NuttBoxer says

This was posted by someone her recently. Saw it again today because someone I know shared it with me. I've always heard people on this site justify their housing debt by saying they won't their homes in an economic collapse. I've pointed out the absurdity of thinking wages will keep up with inflation, but I've always worried about asset seizure as another avenue, and apparently I'm not wrong. Don't owe anyone anything, best policy.

https://mpalmer.heresy.is/webnotes/TheGreatTaking/Prologue.html

Anybody else has a problem with this "proof that deflation is rampant everywhere"?

In 1905, my great, great grandfather’s coal yard was valued in a bank appraisal at $126,000. A modern industrial building with heavy overhead hoists was built on the property in the 1920s by my grandfather; that became the site of Webb Equipment, the crane and hoist business. After my father’s death in 1981, this property, with equipment and materials, was sold for less than $80,000. This was after three quarters of a century.

He's talking about Cleveland, if I'm not mistaken.

PedoIwog says

AmericanKulak says

8% reached!

A bald-faced lie!

The Housing Experts of PatNet insisted this would never happen and derided those who said otherwise.

Normalcy Bias kills. Just ask the Israelis.

In a way, aren't they trying to do this with federal housing regulations having to do with building multi unit buildings in the suburbs?

Damn, I've been thinking for years that I should short US Treasuries.

This is from 8 years ago:

https://patrick.net/post/1283745/2015-08-11-time-to-short-treasuries

Timing is hard.

Patrick says

Damn, I've been thinking for years that I should short US Treasuries.

This is from 8 years ago:

https://patrick.net/post/1283745/2015-08-11-time-to-short-treasuries

Timing is hard.

Now put yourself not on the beginning but the end of the cycle and buy Vanguard Total Bond Fund ETF in anticipation of a Fed Funds rate cut from 5.5% to eventually 2.5% over about 6 to 9 months... a 3% cut will mean the price for a 5 year bond will go up about 15% ...

.

GNL says

In a way, aren't they trying to do this with federal housing regulations having to do with building multi unit buildings in the suburbs?

That's to bring the Hood to your Hood and help "Decolonize". That Euphemism which means the same as "Liquidation" to an NKVD or SS Official.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/10/11/adjustable-rate-mortgage-demand-spiked-last-week-heres-why.html

Adjustable-rate mortgage demand spiked last week

<<< YEP!

Homebuyers will return when Homeloaners adjust prices way down to account for the doubling of interest rates.

Stats, Schmats. It's the monthly payment, end of story. There are no endless trains of Foreign Buyers and DINKs looking for 3-4 beds in the suburbs that are an hour drive from the city where they want to sent their kid to the college as a foreign student or go to the downtown to watch homeless people shit from the window of the Yuppie Wine & Mani-Pedi Bar.

Houses that were a third to almost half off today's asking price just 5 years ago when rates were 3.5%

"But my all cash investors."

Those investors borrowed the cash at low rates from banks. In the rare instance they have unborrowed cash, they're waiting and seeing for interest rates to take their inevitable toll, along with the unavoidable (Death & Infirmity) aging out of the richest large age cohort.

"I'm 72 and I'm going to wait out the market and then finally move to my beach house full time!" LOL

Booger says

yep, it went up real fast from late 2020 to mid 2022...then crashed in a shorter time period (late 2022 to mid 2023) ...

that is how it usually is with assets like stocks going up over a longer period and crashing over a very short period... housing obviously is different as far as ease of creating a sale ...

when i say crash for housing I mean volume and liquidity... there was a mad rush to buy when the 30 yr mortgage rate dropped to 3% ... it was like a stampede effect as far as buyers rushing in a store to clear the shelves out ...

from what I've seen of charts and data, I think peak housing price was set around 4% locked-in rate for the 30 year mortgage

if rates go down to 5.5% for 30 year mortgage next year, you may see incentives like home builders offering 4 discount points payment and then an increase in real estate transactions ... and they may require 10% down for this ... that would equate to a 4.5% rate for the 30 year mortgage...

....

A long time client (very successful Husband/wife Realtor team) called and told me just yesterday...1. She is expecting lots of foreclosures...2. Lots of short sales and 3. her lender of 20 years told her he has ZERO loans he is working on and he has ZERO in his pipeline. I'm not making a prediction, just sharing what I was told. This is in the DMV.

GNL says

This is in the DMV.

By DMV he means the greater Washington DC area.

HeadSet says

By DMV he means the greater Washington DC area.

The V is also known as the People's Republic of Northern Virginia

.

(D)istrict of Columbia, (M)aryland and (V)irginia...where they all converge and the surrounding areas. Otherwise known as Mordor(?). The Imperial City?

GNL says

A long time client (very successful Husband/wife Realtor team) called and told me just yesterday...1. She is expecting lots of foreclosures...2. Lots of short sales and 3. her lender of 20 years told her he has ZERO loans he is working on and he has ZERO in his pipeline. I'm not making a prediction, just sharing what I was told. This is in the DMV.

I call BS. The DC MSA area is isolated from the real economy, unless this couple is 50 miles away from the DC area. Last recession, DC housing didn't feel a thing. This recession, government has only grown bigger.

1337irr says

GNL says

A long time client (very successful Husband/wife Realtor team) called and told me just yesterday...1. She is expecting lots of foreclosures...2. Lots of short sales and 3. her lender of 20 years told her he has ZERO loans he is working on and he has ZERO in his pipeline. I'm not making a prediction, just sharing what I was told. This is in the DMV.

I call BS. The DC MSA area is isolated from the real economy, unless this couple is 50 miles away from the DC area. Last recession, DC housing didn't feel a thing. This recession, government has only grown bigger.

Maybe she was just frustrated. I don't know.

1337irr says

Last recession, DC housing didn't feel a thing.

Not true. I know several people who lost jobs and houses during that time in this area. Prices did go down and there are several areas that took 10 years for prices to get back to where a seller could sell without losing $$. NO, it did not suffer like most of the rest of the country but, YES it did suffer some.