patrick.net

.

https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/us-economic-outlook-recession-markets-wall-street-stocks-interest-rates-2023-11

'The hard part is over': Here's what Goldman Sachs sees in the year ahead as markets and the economy return to pre-2008 conditions

Goldman Sachs said the economy and investing landscape is returning to a pre-2008 environment.

Strategists said the global economy has outperformed expectations in 2023, and disinflation should carry on.

Conditions are normalizing as the era of ultra-low rates ends.

.

Wolfman at WolfStreet website mentions about all the liquidity from the pandemic with ZIRP (zero interest rate policy) and all the stimulus spending. 0

It pumped up the median housing price about 40% from summer 2020.

Income hopefully will continue to increase at a greater rate than housing and the rest of the major aggregates of inflation (food, services, transportation, etc) over the next 4 years.

That is how the air from the liquidity bubble or balloon can slowly be released.

For example, houses seemed more affordable in 2013 as compared to 2006. The PE for the S&P 500 was relatively low in 2013 as compared to 2006,

.

.

.

Used car prices have fallen to their lowest levels since April 2021, down 18% from peak

The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index has extended its maximum drawdown to -18%, the largest in index history.

Used car demand is waning as borrowing rates for used cars have surged to 7.3%, sparking an affordability crisis.

https://oilprice.com/Finance/the-Markets/Used-Car-Market-In-Turmoil-As-Prices-Collapse-And-Demand-Wanes.html

.

https://babylonbee.com/cleanArticle/thousands-already-lined-up-for-black-friday-after-grocery-store-offers-prices-from-when-trump-was-president

From Yahoo Finance:

On Tuesday (14 November 2023), investors will digest one of the most important data points the Federal Reserve will consider in its next interest rate decision: October's Consumer Price Index (CPI).

The report, set for release at 8:30 a.m. ET, is expected to show headline inflation of 3.3%, a deceleration from September's 3.7% annual gain in prices, according to estimates from Bloomberg. Over the prior month, consumer prices are expected to have risen 0.1% in October, a slower clip than September's 0.4% monthly increase.

Lower energy costs are likely to have held the headline figures to a smaller gain. Bank of America anticipates a 1.8% month-over-month drop in energy prices, driven by lower gas prices, which fell sharply during the month of October.

2022 was the worst year for inflation since 1980. So in 2024, 12-month inflation will finally steady.

It may be slightly lower than 2023 price levels, so annual inflation in 2024 may steady between 2.5 % and 3.5%.

It may take until 2025 with the current Fed funds rate of 5.5% (at a 23 year high) for the annual inflation rate to drop below 2%.

.
since the mid 1980's, annual inflation seems to have been tame and between 2 and 3%
.



.

Gas fell ~$1 over the last month in my neck of the woods.

.

October 2023 inflation numbers (i.e., CPI)

12 month: 3.2%
1 month: 0.0%

recall 12 month CPI peaked around 9.1% back in June 2022 and this was the highest annual CPI since around 1981

.

RWSGFY says

Gas fell ~$1 over the last month in my neck of the woods.

Oil rig count still at least 20% below 2019 levels ... oil prices are reported to go down since traders are forecasting a drop in demand, according to Wall Street Journal and Reuters ...
.



.

Texas rig count also down about +20% since 2019 : https://ycharts.com/indicators/texas_rotary_rigs

.

Norway is the leader in Electric Vehicles ... need a lot more electric vehicles to be sold each year in the USA to show a significant decrease in oil demand...

the benefit to the USA if demand for natural gas increases and oil demand drops due to increase in electric vehicle usage, is that natural gas is not priced on the global marketplace, unlike oil ... and the USA is the Saudi Arabia of natural gas ...

.



.

ad says

.

October 2023 inflation numbers (i.e., CPI)

12 month: 3.2%
1 month: 0.2%

recall 12 month CPI peaked around 9.1% back in June 2022 and this was the highest annual CPI since around 1981

.

Ahhh, Month over Month CPI was zero, zip zilch, nada.

The logbook with all fuel purchases recorded in my truck goes back to the first fill up on May 5, 2006, in East SJ: $3.31 per gallon.

This weekend, at same station, $4.20 per gallon.

From a simple calculation for CAGR that comes out to about 1.4% annualized inflation in gasoline prices during the past 17.5 years.

The Sky Is Falling Down.

B.A.C.A.H. says

The logbook with all fuel purchases recorded in my truck goes back to the first fill up on May 5, 2006, in East SJ: $3.31 per gallon.

This weekend, at same station, $4.20 per gallon.

From a simple calculation for CAGR that comes out to about 1.4% annualized inflation in gasoline prices during the past 17.5 years.

The Sky Is Falling Down.

yeah, and you could have gotten a better deal ... according to Gas Buddy website, its $4.09 at Kwik Serv 2370 Alum Rock Ave San Jose, CA

oil traders are pricing in a recession or major drop in oil demand over the next 3 months

.

Misc says

ad says

.

October 2023 inflation numbers (i.e., CPI)

12 month: 3.2%
1 month: 0.2%

recall 12 month CPI peaked around 9.1% back in June 2022 and this was the highest annual CPI since around 1981

.

Ahhh, Month over Month CPI was zero, zip zilch, nada.

true, as overall or "all item" CPI was 0% from September to October

CPI excluding food and energy went up 0.2% from September to October

.

Misc says

ad says

.

October 2023 inflation numbers (i.e., CPI)

12 month: 3.2%

1 month: 0%

1 month: 0.2%

recall 12 month CPI peaked around 9.1% back in June 2022 and this was the highest annual CPI since around 1981

.

Ahhh, Month over Month CPI was zero, zip zilch, nada.

true, as inflation increased 0% from September 2023 to October 2023 ...

a Great Value brand loaf of bread at $1 on 1 January goes up 0.2% in 30 days... then it goes up 0.2% each month..

(1.002^12) x $1 = 1.024 x $1 = $1.024

the loaf of bread costs $1.024 at end of 12 months :-(

I am hoping month over month is less than 0% for November inflation report

The Street was expecting a core inflation rate of 4.1% YoY. It came in at a 4.0%.

If oil prices keep going down, we may get a negative MoM print for the CPI, but with about a third of the inflation measure being OER or rent and it clocking in at a MoM increase of .4 -.5%, the core rate is gonna stay elevated.

I am still giggling at the Hedge funds that were short long term treasuries on margin going into today.

The MSM is hyping the gain of the stock market today, but with the dollar down about 1.6 - 1.8%, to someone overseas it waw up, but not that much.

Misc says

I am still giggling at the Hedge funds that were short long term treasuries on margin going into today.

yeah SPDR Portfolio Long Term Treasury ETF was up 2.1% today and up 3% since this Monday's opening

the same ETF was down 50% last month from its all time high set in late 2020 ... it is now down 46% from its all time high ...

I think the worse is behind us as far as bonds and may be a good time to load up on Vanguard Total Bond Market ETF as inflation has finally been restrained

.

https://slaynews.com/news/net-zero-driving-inflation-central-bank-policymaker-warns/

A central bank policymaker has spoken out to warn that the globalist “Net Zero” agenda of the World Economic Forum (WEF) and United Nations (UN) is behind the soaring inflation rates felt around the globe.

According to Catherine Mann, a prominent member of the Bank of England’s (BOE) Monetary Policy Committee, “climate change” policies are a key driver of soaring inflation.

“Climate change” and countries’ different approaches to combat it are likely to boost inflation, Mann warns.

Misc says

If oil prices keep going down, we may get a negative MoM print for the CPI,

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/11/15/wholesale-prices-fell-0point5percent-in-october-for-biggest-monthly-drop-since-april-2020.html

Wholesale prices fell 0.5% in October for biggest monthly drop since April 2020

.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-11-14/rolex-patek-prices-hit-fresh-two-year-lows-subdial-index

Luxury watches have dropped 42% since April 2022 high

Rich are spending less on luxury items which means economy is slowing and inflation is subsiding

.

.

Inflation going down and Walmart says there may be deflation for its groceries as Walmart is predicting a major economic downturn

"The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for unemployment benefits jumped by 13,000 to 231,000 last week, the highest in nearly two years, and corporate layoffs are starting to accelerate."

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-cheers-lower-inflation-new-risk-has-investors-on-edge

.

ad says

.

Inflation going down and Walmart says there may be deflation for its groceries as Walmart is predicting a major economic downturn

"The Labor Department reported Thursday that new applications for unemployment benefits jumped by 13,000 to 231,000 last week, the highest in nearly two years, and corporate layoffs are starting to accelerate."

https://www.thestreet.com/investing/wall-street-cheers-lower-inflation-new-risk-has-investors-on-edge

.

That's what the Fed wanted.

.

advertisement for central Florida homes in the late 1950's
.



.

Eat your iPads

Billionaire hedge fund manager Ray Dalio warns about the US federal debt. Inflation will result in order to sustain debt payment or service (i.e., inflate out of debt crisis).

All the productivity and innovation gains (even in services) will be negated by inflation so as to result in a +3% annual increase in core inflation especially housing and services.

I remember the mantra in the 1990s and early 2000s about "doing more with less or the same".

Today is not so much that paradigm on total quality management (TQM) as it has been completely overshadowed with Diversity, Equity and Inclusion emphasis.

***************

https://www.forbes.com/sites/digital-assets/2023/11/19/us-dollar-collapse-acceleration-337-trillion-shock-fed-inflation-warning-makes-the-bullish-case-for-bitcoin-ethereum-xrp-and-crypto-price-surge

In September, U.S. national debt—the amount of money borrowed by the federal government to cover operating expenses—topped $33 trillion for the first time, according to figures from the U.S. department of the Treasury, with spending turbo-charged by the Covid crisis and lockdowns that paralised the economy in recent years.

"Ray Dalio laying out the bullish case for bitcoin," bitcoin analyst and founder of Reflexivity Research, Will Clemente, posted to X (Twitter).

In 2022, the U.S. notched a $1.7 trillion deficit, with $659 billion spent on net interest costs in fiscal 2023 to finance the debt.

"The government is going to have to continually and increasingly issue more debt to fund their previous debt payments, similar to an individual taking out a new credit card to pay off old credit card debt," Clemente said. "Monetary debasement is mathematically programmed."

See https://www.rt.com/india/587535-india-russia-oil-trade/

The_Deplorable says

See https://www.rt.com/india/587535-india-russia-oil-trade/

Yep.

"Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar has asserted that India, the world's second-largest oil buyer following China, played a pivotal role in stabilizing global oil and gas prices by continuing trade with Russia, thereby mitigating global inflation.

Speaking at an event hosted by the High Commission of India in London earlier this week, he noted the “exceptional steadiness” of India-Russia ties while emphasizing that the East does not view Russia as a “revisionist power,” unlike the West."

ad says

"Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar..." [Big snip of unrelated nonsense]

Why are you changing the subject?

The topic is the price of gasoline in Los Angeles on October 5, 2023 at $8.00 per gallon. Any thoughts about this?

The_Deplorable says

ad says

"Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar..." [Big snip of unrelated nonsense]

Why are you changing the subject?

The topic is the price of gasoline in Los Angeles on October 5, 2023 at $8.00 per gallon. Any thoughts about this?

I was copying some of the quotes from the web link you provided in your post ( https://www.rt.com/india/587535-india-russia-oil-trade/).

I am not sure why it costs about $8.00 for Los Angeles, Mexifornia.

Gas buddy shows average of $5 per gallon for Los Angeles: https://www.gasbuddy.com/home?search=los+angeles%2C+ca&fuel=1&method=all&maxAge=0

Which I can't fathom since that is nearly twice as much as Panama City, Florida prices.

Its $2.59 in the best place on Earth (Panama City, Florida) : https://www.gasbuddy.com/station/209198

.

.

Heard CapWealth Founder Tim Pagliara get interviewed about 15 minutes ago on Bloomberg Radio WBBR.

He said he is bullish on energy as fossil fuel is still going to be needed such as to power a mega factory in Kansas that makes EV and solar power batteries.

He did say the S&P 500 has only returned about 6.5% annually over last 24 years despite it being historically being promoted as returning 10% a year. He said invest in growth stocks like Microsoft and Costco which beat the S&P 500.

For me, I like S&P 500 Growth ETF (ticker: VOOG) in order to offer a better real return (i.e., after inflation return).

He says expect the 10 Year Treasury to steady around 4.25% when inflation settles around 2%. He sees now we are in a period of reduction in inflation (aka: disinflation).

.

Patrick says

I'd like to see the updated for 2023 version. I'm calling bullshit on the wage increases as well.

ad says

yeah, and you could have gotten a better deal ... according to Gas Buddy website, its $4.09 at Kwik Serv 2370 Alum Rock Ave San Jose, CA

Thank for the tip, ad. I've used Gas Buddy but didn't notice that one.

I happened to be passing by that place today so I filled up. Today's price at Kwik Serve was $4.039

ad says

Best price I could find for a Butterball turkey around here is $1.97/pound.