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Money Market Funds, Large CDs, Small CDs All Surged: Americans Figured it Out

Banks, forced by competition from money market funds, got the memo.

Money market funds have been paying over 5% since about April 2023, up from near 0% in April 2022, and Americans are liking it. A lot. And that has forced banks to compete for deposits by offering attractive interest rates on CDs. And Americans have flocked to those too.

https://wolfstreet.com/2023/11/24/money-market-funds-large-cds-small-cds-all-surged-americans-figured-it-out/

This is SUPPOSED to be how the banking system is to work: paying savers not the Fed. The Fed discount window is not supposed to be the first resort for bank lending funds but rather the last. But close to ten years of QE bullshit has been otherwise.

#ReturningToNormal

$16 meal at McDonalds ... McDonalds pays about $14 an hour in Bay County, Florida...

I remember making about $4.50 an hour (with no tips) back in 1986 at a restaurant as a busboy and McDonalds Big Mac meal costing about $2.50 ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/04/lifestyle/16-for-a-burger-fries-and-soda-mcdonalds-customers-slam-franchise-fume-its-no-longer-affordable/

This explains how McDonalds is making more revenue: https://nypost.com/2023/10/30/business/mcdonalds-revenue-soars-as-it-hikes-menu-prices-18-big-macs/

Though the stock is about 28% above 2019 price level, and inflation has been about 24% from 2019 to present day ... so McDonalds stock has not had any major real gain since 2019 ..

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I remember close to 10 years ago 29 cent/lb turkeys after Thanksgiving. Now its about 80 cents/lb. Let's go Brandon!

https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-inflation-economy-cost-of-living/

Just How Bad Is the US Cost-of-Living Squeeze? We Did the Math

After years of inflation, US consumers are shouldering a burden unlike anything seen in decades — even as the pace of price increases has slowed.

It now requires $119.27 to buy the same goods and services a family could afford with $100 before the pandemic. Since early 2020, prices have risen about as much as they had in the full 10 years preceding the health emergency.

It’s hard to find an area of a household budget that’s been spared: Groceries are up 25% since January 2020. Same with electricity. Used-car prices have climbed 35%, auto insurance 33% and rents roughly 20%.

Many Americans have seen their pay rise rapidly since 2020, but much of those gains have been gobbled up by inflation. Some of the fastest wage increases in decades have left the average American largely no better off than before.

In the four years before the pandemic, grocery prices increased less than 1%, offering shoppers a certain predictability.

Even then, consumers occasionally saw price spikes for specific items due to drought, disease or natural disaster. But the nearly ubiquitous increases of the last few years — and the brisk pace — have been bewildering.

A pound of ground beef now costs $5.23 on average, up from $3.89 in January 2020. Coffee is up some $2 a pound. Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are nearly 14% higher. At one point, the price of a carton of eggs was triple its pre-pandemic price.

For most Americans, the cost of housing is by far the largest expense in any given month. As a result, the run-up in rental prices — which looks even more acute when using data from private companies like Zillow Group Inc. — has made it harder for many to save or have enough left over for other spending.

It’s also a difficult moment for renters to make the leap to homeownership. Mortgage rates are around a 23-year high, and home values have jumped nearly 42% since the start of 2020

Those who owned homes before the recent run-up in mortgage rates and prices have been shielded from one of the most dramatic impacts of inflation, and the appreciation in home values has markedly boosted their wealth.

It’s “like winning the lottery in hindsight,” said Skylar Olsen, chief economist at Zillow.

But it’s not all roses for homeowners. The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes, and the surge in mortgage rates has prevented many of them from moving.

Americans haven’t gotten any respite from their other bills either. Electricity bills have climbed 25% since January 2020, and natural gas is up 29% in the same time period. And like inflation more generally, jumps in electricity prices have been uneven across states and regions.

Car insurance is up 33%, and the combination of higher car prices and a surge in borrowing costs has pushed the average monthly payment for a new car to a record high of $736. According to Edmunds, a record 17.5% of consumers financing a new vehicle are now paying $1,000 or more a month.

More details in the article along with graphs 📈 (paywall though)

zzyzzx says

The rapid climb in home equity has pushed up property taxes

Only for recent buyers in California.

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Forecasters marked up their projections for the annual so-called core personal consumption expenditures index largely through the end of next year, per the results of the November survey. The measure, which excludes the volatile food and energy categories, is seen at 2.5% at the end of 2024, up from 2.4% in last month’s poll.

Meantime, the overall PCE metric and the alternative consumer price index are seen receding faster than previously thought through mid-2024. Those measures have shown greater disinflation in recent months largely due to a pullback in energy prices.

While recent reports have showed encouraging signs that price pressures are easing, Fed officials have repeatedly indicated they must see sustained signs of cooling before declaring victory on inflation. Policymakers favor the core gauge as a better indicator of underlying price pressures.

Though economists still expect the Fed to start loosening monetary policy in the second quarter of next year, they now see the central bank keeping interest rates higher through the end of 2025.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/economists-see-stubborn-us-core-140000636.html

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https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/pricey-patty-monday-november-27-2023

https://www.tiktok.com/@topherolive/video/7179658803867077934

No wonder they are so mad about TikTok all the time.

Good summary on COL increase since 2020: https://archive.ph/2kcgQ

I like getting a free McDonakds sandwich when I complete a mcdvoice survey. The McDonalds I go to always seems to have this survey option on the receipt.

So I get a fish sandwich for free along with a $9 small meal of a chicken crispy sandwich with fries and soda.

Its enough calories for a meal at $9 compared to the average starting wage for fast food of $15 in Bay County, Florida.

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Dollar has weakened : https://news.yahoo.com/dollar-weakens-further-rate-cut-030003386.html

The dollar extended losses Wednesday as traders ramped up bets on the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in the new year after officials sounded optimistic notes on the battle against inflation.

The PCE for October 2024 is to be reported on 30 November.

Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...

I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...

it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...

so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/

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https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index

PCE reported today for October 2023. The Federal Reserve states is makes its decision on the Fed Funds Rate based on the PCE.

PCE is 3% for last 12 months

Inflation continues to trend downward. I think annual inflation will reach 2.5% by April 2024.

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ad says

Red Lobsters loses $11 million on all you can eat shrimp deal...

I'm 0% surprised by this judging by what I see at restaurants when they offer all you can eat deals like this ...

it contributes to less inflation as far as restaurant prices but its not economically sustainable given obesity trends in the USA ...

so yes, there is a lot more high demand for restaurant deals like this compared to 25 to 30 years ago ...

https://nypost.com/2023/11/28/business/red-lobster-lost-11-million-because-of-its-all-you-can-eat-shrimp-deal/

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Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

GNL says

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?

ad says

GNL says

Inflation will be reported as whatever they want it to be.

yes its government reported inflation...what is your estimate of annual inflation ?

Anybody interested in reporting their own numbers can take their own surveys and come up with their own numbers. It's not rocket surgery and not the kind of info only gubmint can get. Many non-governmental
orgs are perfectly capable of it. So the claims that "we'll never know the real number because gubmint fudges it" are a bit silly.

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CPI reported today as 3.1% for last 12 months. Was hoping it would drop to 2.9% or lower but still this is a lot better than 9.1% back in summer 2022.

CPI minus food and energy (i.e., core CPI) is at 4% for last 12 months which is a major improvement.

https://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

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MOSCOW, Dec 14 (Reuters) - Soviet President Vladimir Pukin issued a rare apology on Thursday when a pensioner complained to him about the price of eggs.

During Pukin's end-of-year question and answer session with the media and with members of the public calling in from across the USSR, pensioner Irina Akopova was shown seated at her kitchen table and addressing the president by video link.

She complained that prices for eggs, chicken breasts and wings had all skyrocketed.

"Vladimir Vladimirovich, take pity on pensioners! We don't get millions in our pensions. Sort this out - we have no one to turn to," she said. "I'm very grateful to you, I'm counting on you to help."

The question reflected real concern among Soviets at the cost of living, and came after Pukin had already acknowledged that inflation may approach 8% this year.

"I apologise for this, but this is a failure of the government's work... I promise that the situation will be corrected in the near future," Pukin said.

The marathon Q+A is a format that gives Putin the chance to show he is sympathetic with ordinary people's worries and is ordering the relevant officials to sort them out.

The government this week said it would exempt 1.2 billion eggs from import duty in the first half of next year to try and rein in prices that have risen more than 40% this year.

-- Reuters

https://slaynews.com/news/biden-most-restrictive-offshore-oil-drilling-plan-history/

Democrat President Joe Biden has just unveiled new plans to impose massive restrictions on offshore oil drilling.

According to the announcement, only three offshore drilling leases would be authorized over the next five years.

It marks the lowest number in U.S. history.

As part of the plan, “green” energy sources will be aggressively pursued instead.

This will cause yet more Bidenflation.

Patrick says

This will cause yet more Bidenflation.

Orange Lady (Psaki) said it best in response to the Fox News White House reporter's question about energy supply. Orange Lady said by paying higher gas prices, we are upholding our values.

They want gas prices to stay elevated. Its a Democrat government mandate as far as pushing for less carbon based energy (mostly gasoline consumption) and more solar and wind, as well as electric vehicles.

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https://thehill.com/homenews/nexstar_media_wire/4358987-rent-expected-to-drop-in-several-us-cities-as-markets-near-oversupply-real-estate-report/

(NEXSTAR) – Renters may finally catch a break next year.

Of the 100 cities analyzed in Zumper’s Annual Rent Report, which was released this week, 55 have seen rent prices drop since last year. An additional 17 are flat year-over-year.

The report predicts rent prices will keep “softening,” at least through the first half of 2024.

Part of the reason for dropping prices, according to Zumper, is a recent increase in supply, as new apartment buildings and complexes keep opening in fast-growing cities. Real-time data providers like Zillow and ApartmentList also show rent growth for new apartments tumbling.

Nationwide, the cost of renting a one-bedroom dropped by a tenth of a percent in 2023, Zumper reports, but is expected to drop by larger margins in 2024 in cities where supply has caught up with demand. Sun Belt cities, from Phoenix to Austin to Orlando, have all seen one-bedroom rents drop between 5% and 11%.

From NY Post article. Looks like then inflation will not be a major priority or factor in 2024 if this is true.

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“Since 2009, this has been 100% artificial, unprecedented money printing and deficits; $27 trillion over 15 years, to be exact. This is off the charts, 100% artificial, which means we’re in a dangerous state,” Harry Dent told Fox News Digital.

“I think 2024 is going to be the biggest single crash year we’ll see in our lifetimes.”