patrick.net

When you look at the Magneficient 7 which includes such as Amazon and NVDIA, they rallied a lot this year. Amazon is up about 75% year to date.

Typically if you have a rally like this, the following year will see likely a +7 to +10% return. I liken it to a spring oscillation as the displacement or movement decreases with time.

However, investors will rotate to other stocks that were beaten down and look like good values.

In 2023, regional banks have been beaten down, so has healthcare and energy stocks. That is why I like Vanguard High Dividend Yield Fund and its Healthcare Fund.

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Regional banks... is the worst yet to come? They've already had a decent run (but well off their previous highs).

I'm older and I am not going to dividend stocks yet because I am a greedy bastard who wants more obscene capital appreciation before shifting to an income objective.

Luckily I have enough dividends and interest to be able to wait a little while longer.

"Money talks, bullshit walks."
"It's fuck or walk."

Why I added that I don't know.😎

History suggests the stock market will likely do well in the election year of an incumbent President which is 2024. Time will tell.

With 3 rate cuts projected for 2014, and 30-year fixed mortgage rates have come down to 6.25% now, this actually provides a little tail wind for the housing market going into this spring/summer.

For those iTulip fans, Finster's Financology website has a few suggestions (full disclosure, I just read because I like his writing style, and am not financially affilliated with this) for a more income/dividend weighted investment style:

https://financology.net/financology-model-income-portfolio/

Booger says

Buy dividend paying stocks

Unfortunately, I make enough in Apple dividends that I don't qualify for a whole bunch of government welfare... Obamacare subsidies, energy subsidies, etc. Dividends force you to take the "income" every year. I'd rather just be accumulating capital gains and decide when to take recognize the gain. For example, after qualifying for medicare and fleeing California.

A person could always short California State and municipal bonds.

That might work out.

While you're working, living in California is OK from a taxation perspective. If you're paid enough, who cares about California income tax?

When you're retired and living off of your various investments, it's a very bad deal.

Without withdrawing anything from a retirement account or annuity, I saved $7,000 in California taxes in my first year.
When I start actually spending the money, the savings will be much more.

You guys can help pay for the schools and healthcare for illegals and their children; don't expect them to thank you however.
I forgot the rich pension of the county workers, cops and firemen, sheriff, CHP.

Biotech, that xbi smackdown from 23 will have a continued yuge snapback.

Beanie Babies

SunnyvaleCA says

Unfortunately, I make enough in Apple dividends that I don't qualify for a whole bunch of government welfare... Obamacare subsidies, energy subsidies, etc. Dividends force you to take the "income" every year. I'd rather just be accumulating capital gains and decide when to take recognize the gain. For example, after qualifying for medicare and fleeing California.

Is there a bulletproof long term dividend paying stock?

What do you guys think of this?
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund Admiral Shares (VDADX)
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vdadx

You're in stocks of the healthiest blue-chip companies at an expense ratio of almost zero.

VDADX=You probably can't go wrong.

SunnyvaleCA says

Unfortunately, I make enough in Apple dividends that I don't qualify for a whole bunch of government welfare... Obamacare subsidies, energy subsidies, etc. Dividends force you to take the "income" every year. I'd rather just be accumulating capital gains and decide when to take recognize the gain. For example, after qualifying for medicare and fleeing California.

Please let us know when you figure out how to circulate your money through a DAF and back into your pocket. We damn sure know that's what the Buffetts and Bezo's are doing but somehow it's legal for them.

porkchopXpress says

What do you guys think of this?
Vanguard Dividend Appreciation Index Fund Admiral Shares (VDADX)
https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vdadx

You're in stocks of the healthiest blue-chip companies at an expense ratio of almost zero.

Not enough income being generated. I'm nearing retirement and really only want the income.

Booger says

Not enough income being generated. I'm nearing retirement and really only want the income.

Makes sense. I was thinking just in general, not necessarily for income generation. I'm about 15 years away from retirement.

Before retirement your investment objective is capital appreciation.

During retirement, your investment objective is usually income to replace the income you had from working. But, this isn't a rule.

Even capital appreciation funds pay a dividend in December each year, small as it may be. But, if you a lot of dough in the fund, you get some cash from it.

My extreme greed and avarice compels me to delay changing my investment objective just yet.

Booger says

Not enough income being generated. I'm nearing retirement and really only want the income.

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vhyax

https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vscgx

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Vanguard Wellseley Income

Not investment advice necessarily. Slightly confused by the massive price drops at the grocery store. Talking 25% drops. Same with gas here. I'm confused. This happened in the last week. End of year dump or something? It's dramatic from what it was 2-3 weeks ago. Not joking 25% across the board almost. Fucking weird.

WookieMan says

Slightly confused by the massive price drops at the grocery store.

yes as far as eggs

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WookieMan says

This happened in the last week. End of year dump or something? It's dramatic from what it was 2-3 weeks ago.

You can't fight the Fed... ?!
In a move that was largely anticipated, members of the Federal Reserve’s policymaking panel have opted not to raise their benchmark interest rate, the federal funds rate. But, in a bit of a surprise, they’ve signaled that multiple interest rate cuts are likely in 2024.
The stock market rallied on Wednesday’s news, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed above 37,000 for the first time in history, at 37,090.

In my taxable account I'm moving out of SWVXX and into SCHD. I enjoyed the 4+% interest earned in 2023 but it was taxed as income and messed up my tax planning a little (I underestimated Fed Hikes). With SCHD I'll still get a nice 3.5% dividend but they will be 100% qualified and will be taxed at a lower capital gains rate than my marginal rate. SCHD also gives me the possibility of undistributed capital gains (only 4% turnover last year) whereas SWVXX did not. Of course the SCHD NAV could decrease but I usually put on a trade for no less than a five year period.

In my pretax accounts the only move I've made is to dump 2/3's of my AGNC at $10.05 in extended hours over Thursday night (couldn't get a bid on the last 3rd). I'll miss the big dividends but above $10 it's way over book value - which is how people trade these agency MBS REIT's. I'll continue to sell above 10 and buy below 8. Rinse and Repeat.

Once again I'm disappointed that all the silicon valley coding eggheads here on Patnet have not been able to give me one good stock tip. I keep hoping for an early tip on the next netflix. Welp, maybe in 2024 that will change.

stfu says

Once again I'm disappointed that all the silicon valley coding eggheads here on Patnet have not been able to give me one good stock tip. I keep hoping for an early tip on the next netflix. Welp, maybe in 2024 that will change.

This is a blanket statement. They generally don't know what they're talking about half the time and maybe most of the time. You need at least a decade of full time trading to have a clue. No one here has that regardless of being in the tech industry and that includes me. You won't know the next big thing unless you know the owner and invest before it's even public. By the time you learn about it, it's too late to make massive life changing amounts.

A statistician or data analyst would be better. Someone that codes isn't going to give you good stock picks. I think most here would admit that and I don't mean it as a dig. I've seen little to almost no evidence of good stock pickers here. You also shouldn't be doing it anyway if it's not a full time occupation or hobby. You also need to know people on the inside of companies to get the big bucks. 99% of users here don't know anyone at the top. Again, not a knock, just fact.

WookieMan says

I've seen little to almost no evidence of good stock pickers here.

I spent more $$ on learning how to trade stocks than I did on my college degrees. This is what I learned : "I can't pick stocks". I own one stock - AGNC - but everything else is ETF's, bonds and MM. If I look at my trading history from years ago it's like looking at a list of one night stands with 99% of them being coyote mornings.

Uggh, I went all in on BABA when it IPO'd (2014?) because "there's no way Amazon can go higher - they've never even made a profit". I made money, but the same amount in Amazon would be worth millions right now.

I wasted a lot of time and energy on the stock market and I haven't made a single dollar. I should give up and move on but I must be addicted because I still follow stocks. I am too old to be doing this shit

stfu says

Uggh, I went all in on BABA when it IPO'd (2014?) because "there's no way Amazon can go higher - they've never even made a profit". I made money, but the same amount in Amazon would be worth millions right now.

Many have made similar mistakes.

stfu says

Once again I'm disappointed that all the silicon valley coding eggheads here on Patnet have not been able to give me one good stock tip. I keep hoping for an early tip on the next netflix. Welp, maybe in 2024 that will change.

Not true, @patrick has benefitted from my biotech stock picks

gabbar says

I wasted a lot of time and energy on the stock market and I haven't made a single dollar.

Better to put your money away for 5 years at least in Vanguard Total Stock Market Index fund. Or one of Vanguards balanced funds like 70% stocks and 30% investment grade bonds.

mell says

Not true, patrick has benefitted from my biotech stock picks

True, VCEL in particular is up more than 300% from where I bought it on recommendation from @mell in 2018.

KgK one says

Berkshire may be good investment

Amazon n microsoft keeps monopolizing so they will do well

If you can't beat 'em... Join 'em.

Also "Sin" investments. Booze, Casinos that sort of thing. Always a good hedge in a downturn.

But I have to say, my own philosophy is to just buy solid stocks with low p/e ratios and hold them long term. It's only now and then that I make a speculative bet for fun, and only with money I can afford to lose.

Bloomberg TV said today Asia stocks will outperform US stocks in 2024.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/09/global-economy-set-for-its-worst-half-decade-of-growth-in-30-years-world-bank.html

The global economy is on course to record its worst half decade of growth in 30 years, according to the World Bank.

Global growth is forecast to slow for the third year in a row in 2024, dipping to 2.4% from 2.6% in 2023, the organization said in its latest “Global Economic Prospects” report released Tuesday.

Growth is then expected to rise marginally to 2.7% in 2025, though acceleration over the five-year period will remain almost three-quarters of a percentage point below the average rate of the 2010s.

Developing economies are now expected to grow by just 3.9% in 2024, more than 1 percentage point below the average of the previous decade. By the end of the year, people in about 1 out of every 4 developing countries and about 40% of low-income countries will still be poorer than they were on the eve of the Covid-19 pandemic in 2019, the organization said.

ad says

Bloomberg TV said today Asia stocks will outperform US stocks in 2024.

And what did they say about 2023? Did it come true?

AI?



"Here's a picture of Michele pregnant, you conspiracy theorists!"

ad says

Bloomberg TV said today Asia stocks will outperform US stocks in 2024.

It seems wise me to flip any media report and analyze the converse of the report since presumably all reports are either paid for or founded on someone's self interest.

GreaterNYCDude says

Also "Sin" investments. Booze, Casinos that sort of thing. Always a good hedge in a downturn.

Sin or addictive products are a good bet, I agree. Human wisdom cannot beat biological addiction.

Is anybody contemplating any of the new Crypto ETF's (Just 'approved' by the SEC yesterday)?

I have to admit I'm thinking of throwing a small amount of specie based solely on FOMO. Here is a short list from CNBC of them. Note the 'temporary waiver of management fees asterisk'. I'd avoid those for now.

FUND TICKER FEE
BITWISE BITCOIN ETF BITB 0.20%*
ARK 21SHARES BITCOIN ETF ARKB 0.21%*
FIDELITY WISE ORIGIN BITCOIN FUND FBTC 0.25%*
ISHARES BITCOIN TRUST IBIT 0.25%*
VALKYRIE BITCOIN FUND BRRR 0.25%*
VANECK BITCOIN TRUST HODL 0.25%
FRANKLIN BITCOIN ETF EZBC 0.29%
WISDOMTREE BITCOIN FUND BTCW 0.30%*
INVESCO GALAXY BITCOIN ETF BTCO 0.39%*
HASHDEX BITCOIN ETF DEFI 0.94%
GRAYSCALE BITCOIN TRUST GBTC 1.5%

Source: SEC filings; * indicates temporary waiver for part or all of the management fee

What's funny is that you can't even discuss these over at Bogleheads. "No intrinsic value therefore not an investment".

I guess gold, at least theoretically, has intrinsic value because you do see it discussed there, but no a lot. Bogleheads is not very entertaining.