patrick.net

Eman says

Best of luck if we don’t chat again.

Yeah you took some chances and got well beyond what Bob Brinker calls "critical mass".

You lucky you don't have to continue to slug it and work in that Architecture and Engineering rat race.

Look at Patrick's book as far as how-to-avoid-the-housing-trap as far as his firsthand experiences.

Why don't you write a how-to book about how you became rich ? You have said you came to Patnet to promote optimism and the entrepreneur spirit.

A book, even if it is a 99 cent electronic book on Amazon and less than 50 pages, can have a lot more positive impact.

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AD says

Give Crystal City and Pentagon City to Amazon.

I've never understood why Amazon wants to be that close to town.

zzyzzx says

AD says

Give Crystal City and Pentagon City to Amazon.

I've never understood why Amazon wants to be that close to town.

I will guess why, and it has to do in part being neighbors with its regulators, and also to be nearly a neighbor to a three letter alphabet agency that starts with C.

.

But...but the Interest Rates Experts on PatNet told me...

Higher Forever? Even Yellen Starts to Get it: Higher Inflation & Higher Yields Are Here to Stay

The White House budget proposal projected that the 10-year yield would average 4.4% in 2024, up from its year-ago projection for 2024 of 3.6%, and up from the average in the decade before the pandemic of 2.4%.

And it projected the 10-year yield to average 4% in 2025 and to 3.7% in 2029!

The budget proposal also projects that the 3-month yield will average 5.1% in 2024 (it’s at 5.48% today). A year ago, the White House projected that it would average 3.8% in 2024.

And that 5.1% projection might have come out even higher if Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, hadn’t intervened, according to Bloomberg’s sources.

In other words, given the new reality of inflation, both short and long-term yield projections got ratcheted upward substantially over the past year.

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/13/higher-forever-even-yellen-starts-to-get-it-the-low-yields-before-covid-are-over-higher-inflation-higher-yields-are-here-to-stay/

Eman says

The reason I asked because someone else is also quite vocal on this forum, but said he’s an introvert in real life. I just want to see if there’s a pattern. That’s all.

I’ve noticed it too. The sentiment/energy on this forum has been quite negative. I intentionally share posts to provoke people view things from a different angle/POV. It hasn’t been working….Sigh.

Dude, he started this thread to make his point.

You can start your own thread to make your point.

Or you can be (Bay-Area) Smug & Snarkey ("Smarkey") on the thread he started to try to belittle him.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Eman says

The reason I asked because someone else is also quite vocal on this forum, but said he’s an introvert in real life. I just want to see if there’s a pattern. That’s all.

I’ve noticed it too. The sentiment/energy on this forum has been quite negative. I intentionally share posts to provoke people view things from a different angle/POV. It hasn’t been working….Sigh.

Dude, he started this thread to make his point.

You can start your own thread to make your point.

Or you can be (Bay-Area) Smug & Snarkey ("Smarkey") on the thread he started to try to belittle him.

He's talking about me. Whatever. I just call things as I see them. Some may not like it, but my track record is there. Call me out. No fear of being called wrong. I will defend myself against falsehoods and bull shit though.

I honestly think I called his bluff. I don't think Eman is what he states to be. I do well, but I'm not ever going to state I'm hoping to make 9 figures. I'd be out doing things with my family and enjoying my wealth and not here. I'm off most of next week, but might do some shitter posting, probably not. I enjoy life and yes I brag about some things but not my digits.

I've noticed some holes in his bragging. But I have no intention in getting into a pissing match. Feels like the Iwog departure if he's really leaving. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. That seems to be the case.

FL State wastes hundreds of million in "Live Local Law" in tax breaks

Pasco County commissioners have found a new reason to dislike the state’s Live Local law, which was passed last year to boost the amount of affordable housing in Florida with tax breaks and other incentives.

Not only can developers put apartments on land earmarked for industry and get a big property tax break, owners of existing apartment complexes can qualify as well. While the law was sold as a solution to Florida’s housing affordability crisis, apartment owners can claim tax rebates even if they don’t offer particularly low rents.

Already, the owners of two Pasco apartment complexes have applied for the tax breaks. State records show dozens more around the state are seeking to qualify for the program, which provides a windfall for corporate property owners who have done nothing to add to the affordable housing stock.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/2024/01/24/pasco-officials-have-million-new-reasons-oppose-live-local-law/

AmericanKulak says

FL State wastes hundreds of million in "Live Local Law" in tax breaks

Most people don't know about tax breaks and government subsidies. Chicago has enterprise zones. If you build there you don't pay any sales taxes on your materials. The neighborhood we were building in before I left was $700-800K homes. That's lumber, drywall, siding, flooring, lighting, plumbing, etc. in a roughly 10% sales tax city at the time.

This developer had no clue about it and threw me some cash for the $20k savings on each house because I told him about it. Fuck... I was good at that job. I just can't deal with people for my sanity. Real estate is gay. Too many hands in the pot. It's what I did best though. Maybe there will be a version 2.0. Not sure I can go back to my current job.

WookieMan says

Real estate is gay. Too many hands in the pot.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This.

Looks like the real estate commission model just changed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-1-8-billion-conspiracy-verdict-that-rocked-the-real-estate-industry-has-turned-into-a-groundbreaking-418-million-settlement/ar-BB1jXVya?ocid=msedgntp&pc=U531&cvid=57a2b6f99b6c407b8d458b75a409e55b&ei=16

Now the buyer pays for services the "Buyer's Agent" performs. The seller doesn't pay that anymore.

B.A.C.A.H. says

Or you can be (Bay-Area) Smug & Snarkey ("Smarkey") on the thread he started to try to belittle him.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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Misc says

Looks like the real estate commission model just changed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-1-8-billion-conspiracy-verdict-that-rocked-the-real-estate-industry-has-turned-into-a-groundbreaking-418-million-settlement/ar-BB1jXVya?pc=U531

Now the buyer pays for services the "Buyer's Agent" performs. The seller doesn't pay that anymore.

The buyer has always paid ALL the commission and still will. They have the money to purchase. This has been a massive misnomer with RE. No one gets paid without a buyer. Commissions, attorneys, lenders, inspectors, listing agents, etc.

AmericanKulak says

FL State wastes hundreds of million in "Live Local Law" in tax breaks

Yeah I got to find a lot more about this shit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_Florida#Affordable_housing

This looks like another puff piece as they always put out puff pieces for Central Panhandle Association of Realtors (CPAR):

https://www.wjhg.com/2023/04/12/live-local-act/

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WookieMan says

The buyer has always paid ALL the commission and still will. They have the money to purchase. This has been a massive misnomer with RE. No one gets paid without a buyer. Commissions, attorneys, lenders, inspectors, listing agents, etc.

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all about ABC
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More sellers desperate in Florida…
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-fall-homeowners-try-sell-1879096

Swfl says

More sellers desperate in Florida…
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-fall-homeowners-try-sell-1879096

Florida has a boomers starting to die problem. Probably not enough from the north coming in any more to suck up inventory. Retirement regions could take a hit.

WookieMan says

he buyer has always paid ALL the commission and still will. They have the money to purchase. This has been a massive misnomer with RE. No one gets paid without a buyer. Commissions, attorneys, lenders, inspectors, listing agents, etc.

Many buyers don't understand this. Its as if they have been injected with mind numbing anesthesia.

I'm in Florida and the post above about "a problem" and "boomers dying" is incorrect.
The boomers are a gigantic demographic and they aren't dead yet.
The boomers with money are still flooding into Florida.

clambo says

I'm in Florida and the post above about "a problem" and "boomers dying" is incorrect.
The boomers are a gigantic demographic and they aren't dead yet.
The boomers with money are still flooding into Florida.

My parents are/were boomers. They're dying. The kids don't want to live there so they sell. They're dying faster than you think. Millennials are the biggest demo and they aren't moving into retirement housing. Florida and Arizona are going to take a slight hit. Not a crash, but the next 10-20 years as they die off is going to move housing in those areas.

First hardest hit - Cities. Millennials move out and start families en mass.
Second hardest hit - Retirement states.

Suburbs will do fine. Rural will boom. With Starlink you can literally work anywhere. Times are a changing. I'd flee from urban areas. They're going to be a crockpot of shit fuckery. There's actual shit on the streets. The city council likely have has gay anal sex at meetings. Avoid cities is all I'm gonna say. Especially this year with the election. It's gonna be bad.

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Florida ain't "Florida" no more :-/

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WookieMan says

Florida and Arizona are going to take a slight hit. Not a crash, but the next 10-20 years as they die off is going to move housing in those areas.

I wonder if that is why there has been a immigration blitz pushed by Democrats and Chamber of Commerce Republicans as they promote their version of a desirable and sustainable population growth.

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WookieMan says

Swfl says

More sellers desperate in Florida…
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-fall-homeowners-try-sell-1879096

Florida has a boomers starting to die problem. Probably not enough from the north coming in any more to suck up inventory. Retirement regions could take a hit.

Yeah, one thing I was reading about since is that one major demographic unique to South Florida and is a reliable Democrat vote in South Florida are the "greatest generation" born before 1935. Yes I am talking Jewish people from New York and New Jersey mostly.

I've read some Florida politics article stating they are getting more and more replaced with South American immigrants and their 2nd generationers who have a different political bent or perspective, and that is why Palm Beach county is not leaning far left like when you saw how well DaSantis did this.

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https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/us-single-family-housing-starts-soar-february-2024-03-19/

US single-family housing starts, permits near two-year highs

Rate cut? (I don't think so unless maybe jobless numbers radically rise but others here think Powell is Biden's butt boy...)

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-climbs-prices-increase/

Housing Market Update: Supply Climbs 5%, Biggest Increase in Nearly a Year

This here is proof positive of two things:

1) Fed told Team Biden to not count on a rate cut...or any 'rate cut' beyond mere tokenism.

2) The Bidenites are fucking desperate for sure.

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says

This here is proof positive of two things:

1) Fed told Team Biden to not count on a rate cut...or any 'rate cut' beyond mere tokenism.

2) The Bidenites are fucking desperate for sure.

Too many things to refute in that meme. Builders got to build. That's all there is to it unless STRs are eliminated.

GNL says

Too many things to refute in that meme.

Not a meme.

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-stay-above-6-through-2025-fannie-mae-says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/21/amid-weak-demand-for-existing-homes-active-listings-price-reductions-jump-listing-prices-weaken/

Amid Weak Demand for Existing Homes, Active Listings & Price Reductions Jump, Listing Prices Weaken

zzyzzx says

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-stay-above-6-through-2025-fannie-mae-says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says

But! But this is an election year!

zzyzzx says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says

Still too low.

zzyzzx says

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-stay-above-6-through-2025-fannie-mae-says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says

My original forecast was for it to steady between 5.5 and 6% by end of 2024, as I think PCE will remain 3%.

If it was at 6%, then I'd buy down 4 discount points to get the 30 yr mortgage to 5%. Recall the locked-in rate was around 3.5% when prices peaked in early 2022.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home prices.

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In my view, we are in a quaint little time where people believe in financial stability and people can make long term financial plans. The people have faith in things called dot plots even.

Banks haven't loaned money to each other since 2019 and the reason they do not still exists. The banking system is fragile as fuck. To force interest rates back down to where Gen Z can purchase a home, TPTB could decide to sacrifice a Too Big To Fail financial institution for the common good.

The Fed for all of its supposed all encompassing power, is going to be running up against a hard limit as to how far it can shrink its balance sheet. If they go too far, there simply won't be enough cash in the system for everyone to have their share. Biden, meanwhile, is spending a couple trillion more than he has cash coming in, and that is before aid to Ukraine and Israel. There's also always an emergency that takes up a few hundred billion extra. All this borrowing sucks cash out of the system. If people continue to get 2nd and 3rd jobs, say damn the interest rates charge it, and/or tap the equity in their homes via HELOCS to keep the economy not just expanding, but pushing up inflation, well the Fed could find itself having to buy Treasuries even with a higher than wanted inflation rate. If that happens, things could get really fucked up quick.

So there could be big movements in interest rates in either direction.

Someone could also pull back the curtain on how the Europeans are keeping their interest rates between countries at a seemingly reasonable level. If that happens...well the Euro could simply not exist...maybe even overnight.

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home prices.

I presume you mean that for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in price to maintain the same monthly payment. If inflation and other factors keep the house prices elevated despite the rate increases, then people will continue to rent, settle for smaller houses, or double up.

HeadSet says

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home prices.

I presume you mean that for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in price to maintain the same monthly payment. If inflation and other factors keep the house prices elevated despite the rate increases, then people will continue to rent, settle for smaller houses, or double up.

Yes, it is about mortgage affordability as the price of the house would have to drop 10% if the 30 year mortgage rate increases by 1%.

That is if the mortgage applicant is at the maximum loan rate (as percentage of household income) before the rate would increase by 1%.

For around here in the Florida panhandle, seems like townhomes are not above the peak prices set in early 2022, YET income has gone up since early 2022.

AD says

all about ABC

Coffee is for closers!

"The process of buying and selling houses in the United States is an egregious example of special interest politics" - Larry Summers, US Secretary of Treasury, President of Harvard University, March 2024