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housing prices peak 2


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2022 Apr 29, 9:29pm   604,774 views  5,669 comments

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https://finance.yahoo.com/news/pimco-kiesel-called-housing-top-160339396.html?source=patrick.net

Bond manager Mark Kiesel sold his California home in 2006, when he presciently predicted the housing bubble would pop. He bought again in 2012, after U.S. prices fell more than 30% and found a floor.

Now, after a record surge in prices, Kiesel says the time to sell is once again at hand.

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4630   B.A.C.A.H.   2024 Mar 14, 8:46am  

Eman says


The reason I asked because someone else is also quite vocal on this forum, but said he’s an introvert in real life. I just want to see if there’s a pattern. That’s all.

I’ve noticed it too. The sentiment/energy on this forum has been quite negative. I intentionally share posts to provoke people view things from a different angle/POV. It hasn’t been working….Sigh.

Dude, he started this thread to make his point.

You can start your own thread to make your point.

Or you can be (Bay-Area) Smug & Snarkey ("Smarkey") on the thread he started to try to belittle him.
4631   WookieMan   2024 Mar 14, 9:28am  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Eman says



The reason I asked because someone else is also quite vocal on this forum, but said he’s an introvert in real life. I just want to see if there’s a pattern. That’s all.

I’ve noticed it too. The sentiment/energy on this forum has been quite negative. I intentionally share posts to provoke people view things from a different angle/POV. It hasn’t been working….Sigh.

Dude, he started this thread to make his point.

You can start your own thread to make your point.

Or you can be (Bay-Area) Smug & Snarkey ("Smarkey") on the thread he started to try to belittle him.

He's talking about me. Whatever. I just call things as I see them. Some may not like it, but my track record is there. Call me out. No fear of being called wrong. I will defend myself against falsehoods and bull shit though.

I honestly think I called his bluff. I don't think Eman is what he states to be. I do well, but I'm not ever going to state I'm hoping to make 9 figures. I'd be out doing things with my family and enjoying my wealth and not here. I'm off most of next week, but might do some shitter posting, probably not. I enjoy life and yes I brag about some things but not my digits.

I've noticed some holes in his bragging. But I have no intention in getting into a pissing match. Feels like the Iwog departure if he's really leaving. If you can't take the heat, get out of the kitchen. That seems to be the case.
4632   AmericanKulak   2024 Mar 14, 1:04pm  

FL State wastes hundreds of million in "Live Local Law" in tax breaks


Pasco County commissioners have found a new reason to dislike the state’s Live Local law, which was passed last year to boost the amount of affordable housing in Florida with tax breaks and other incentives.

Not only can developers put apartments on land earmarked for industry and get a big property tax break, owners of existing apartment complexes can qualify as well. While the law was sold as a solution to Florida’s housing affordability crisis, apartment owners can claim tax rebates even if they don’t offer particularly low rents.

Already, the owners of two Pasco apartment complexes have applied for the tax breaks. State records show dozens more around the state are seeking to qualify for the program, which provides a windfall for corporate property owners who have done nothing to add to the affordable housing stock.

https://www.tampabay.com/news/2024/01/24/pasco-officials-have-million-new-reasons-oppose-live-local-law/
4633   WookieMan   2024 Mar 15, 1:32am  

AmericanKulak says

FL State wastes hundreds of million in "Live Local Law" in tax breaks

Most people don't know about tax breaks and government subsidies. Chicago has enterprise zones. If you build there you don't pay any sales taxes on your materials. The neighborhood we were building in before I left was $700-800K homes. That's lumber, drywall, siding, flooring, lighting, plumbing, etc. in a roughly 10% sales tax city at the time.

This developer had no clue about it and threw me some cash for the $20k savings on each house because I told him about it. Fuck... I was good at that job. I just can't deal with people for my sanity. Real estate is gay. Too many hands in the pot. It's what I did best though. Maybe there will be a version 2.0. Not sure I can go back to my current job.
4634   stereotomy   2024 Mar 15, 12:07pm  

WookieMan says

Real estate is gay. Too many hands in the pot.

^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
This.
4636   AD   2024 Mar 15, 9:24pm  

B.A.C.A.H. says

Or you can be (Bay-Area) Smug & Snarkey ("Smarkey") on the thread he started to try to belittle him.


Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

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4637   WookieMan   2024 Mar 15, 9:27pm  

Misc says

Looks like the real estate commission model just changed.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/realestate/the-1-8-billion-conspiracy-verdict-that-rocked-the-real-estate-industry-has-turned-into-a-groundbreaking-418-million-settlement/ar-BB1jXVya?pc=U531

Now the buyer pays for services the "Buyer's Agent" performs. The seller doesn't pay that anymore.

The buyer has always paid ALL the commission and still will. They have the money to purchase. This has been a massive misnomer with RE. No one gets paid without a buyer. Commissions, attorneys, lenders, inspectors, listing agents, etc.
4638   AD   2024 Mar 15, 9:31pm  

AmericanKulak says


FL State wastes hundreds of million in "Live Local Law" in tax breaks


Yeah I got to find a lot more about this shit: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Homelessness_in_Florida#Affordable_housing

This looks like another puff piece as they always put out puff pieces for Central Panhandle Association of Realtors (CPAR):

https://www.wjhg.com/2023/04/12/live-local-act/

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4639   AD   2024 Mar 15, 9:41pm  

WookieMan says

The buyer has always paid ALL the commission and still will. They have the money to purchase. This has been a massive misnomer with RE. No one gets paid without a buyer. Commissions, attorneys, lenders, inspectors, listing agents, etc.

.

all about ABC
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4641   WookieMan   2024 Mar 16, 6:15am  

Swfl says

More sellers desperate in Florida…
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-fall-homeowners-try-sell-1879096

Florida has a boomers starting to die problem. Probably not enough from the north coming in any more to suck up inventory. Retirement regions could take a hit.
4642   gabbar   2024 Mar 16, 6:20am  

WookieMan says

he buyer has always paid ALL the commission and still will. They have the money to purchase. This has been a massive misnomer with RE. No one gets paid without a buyer. Commissions, attorneys, lenders, inspectors, listing agents, etc.

Many buyers don't understand this. Its as if they have been injected with mind numbing anesthesia.
4643   clambo   2024 Mar 16, 8:56am  

I'm in Florida and the post above about "a problem" and "boomers dying" is incorrect.
The boomers are a gigantic demographic and they aren't dead yet.
The boomers with money are still flooding into Florida.
4644   WookieMan   2024 Mar 16, 9:09am  

clambo says

I'm in Florida and the post above about "a problem" and "boomers dying" is incorrect.
The boomers are a gigantic demographic and they aren't dead yet.
The boomers with money are still flooding into Florida.

My parents are/were boomers. They're dying. The kids don't want to live there so they sell. They're dying faster than you think. Millennials are the biggest demo and they aren't moving into retirement housing. Florida and Arizona are going to take a slight hit. Not a crash, but the next 10-20 years as they die off is going to move housing in those areas.

First hardest hit - Cities. Millennials move out and start families en mass.
Second hardest hit - Retirement states.

Suburbs will do fine. Rural will boom. With Starlink you can literally work anywhere. Times are a changing. I'd flee from urban areas. They're going to be a crockpot of shit fuckery. There's actual shit on the streets. The city council likely have has gay anal sex at meetings. Avoid cities is all I'm gonna say. Especially this year with the election. It's gonna be bad.
4645   AD   2024 Mar 16, 12:03pm  

.

Florida ain't "Florida" no more :-/

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4646   AD   2024 Mar 16, 12:05pm  

WookieMan says

Florida and Arizona are going to take a slight hit. Not a crash, but the next 10-20 years as they die off is going to move housing in those areas.


I wonder if that is why there has been a immigration blitz pushed by Democrats and Chamber of Commerce Republicans as they promote their version of a desirable and sustainable population growth.

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4647   AD   2024 Mar 16, 12:09pm  

WookieMan says

Swfl says

More sellers desperate in Florida…
https://www.newsweek.com/florida-house-prices-fall-homeowners-try-sell-1879096

Florida has a boomers starting to die problem. Probably not enough from the north coming in any more to suck up inventory. Retirement regions could take a hit.


Yeah, one thing I was reading about since is that one major demographic unique to South Florida and is a reliable Democrat vote in South Florida are the "greatest generation" born before 1935. Yes I am talking Jewish people from New York and New Jersey mostly.

I've read some Florida politics article stating they are getting more and more replaced with South American immigrants and their 2nd generationers who have a different political bent or perspective, and that is why Palm Beach county is not leaning far left like when you saw how well DaSantis did this.

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4649   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Mar 20, 5:10pm  

Rate cut? (I don't think so unless maybe jobless numbers radically rise but others here think Powell is Biden's butt boy...)


4650   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 21, 10:20am  

https://www.redfin.com/news/housing-market-update-supply-climbs-prices-increase/

Housing Market Update: Supply Climbs 5%, Biggest Increase in Nearly a Year
4651   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Mar 21, 2:28pm  

This here is proof positive of two things:

1) Fed told Team Biden to not count on a rate cut...or any 'rate cut' beyond mere tokenism.

2) The Bidenites are fucking desperate for sure.


4652   GNL   2024 Mar 21, 3:29pm  

UkraineIsTotallyFucked says


This here is proof positive of two things:

1) Fed told Team Biden to not count on a rate cut...or any 'rate cut' beyond mere tokenism.

2) The Bidenites are fucking desperate for sure.




Too many things to refute in that meme. Builders got to build. That's all there is to it unless STRs are eliminated.
4653   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Mar 21, 3:32pm  

GNL says

Too many things to refute in that meme.


Not a meme.
4656   zzyzzx   2024 Mar 22, 11:42am  

https://wolfstreet.com/2024/03/21/amid-weak-demand-for-existing-homes-active-listings-price-reductions-jump-listing-prices-weaken/

Amid Weak Demand for Existing Homes, Active Listings & Price Reductions Jump, Listing Prices Weaken
4657   DOGEWontAmountToShit   2024 Mar 22, 1:29pm  

zzyzzx says

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-stay-above-6-through-2025-fannie-mae-says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says


But! But this is an election year!
4658   HeadSet   2024 Mar 22, 3:37pm  

zzyzzx says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says

Still too low.
4659   AD   2024 Mar 23, 12:14am  

zzyzzx says

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/mortgage-rates-stay-above-6-through-2025-fannie-mae-says

Mortgage rates to stay above 6% through 2025, Fannie Mae says


My original forecast was for it to steady between 5.5 and 6% by end of 2024, as I think PCE will remain 3%.

If it was at 6%, then I'd buy down 4 discount points to get the 30 yr mortgage to 5%. Recall the locked-in rate was around 3.5% when prices peaked in early 2022.

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home prices.

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4660   Misc   2024 Mar 23, 1:00am  

In my view, we are in a quaint little time where people believe in financial stability and people can make long term financial plans. The people have faith in things called dot plots even.

Banks haven't loaned money to each other since 2019 and the reason they do not still exists. The banking system is fragile as fuck. To force interest rates back down to where Gen Z can purchase a home, TPTB could decide to sacrifice a Too Big To Fail financial institution for the common good.

The Fed for all of its supposed all encompassing power, is going to be running up against a hard limit as to how far it can shrink its balance sheet. If they go too far, there simply won't be enough cash in the system for everyone to have their share. Biden, meanwhile, is spending a couple trillion more than he has cash coming in, and that is before aid to Ukraine and Israel. There's also always an emergency that takes up a few hundred billion extra. All this borrowing sucks cash out of the system. If people continue to get 2nd and 3rd jobs, say damn the interest rates charge it, and/or tap the equity in their homes via HELOCS to keep the economy not just expanding, but pushing up inflation, well the Fed could find itself having to buy Treasuries even with a higher than wanted inflation rate. If that happens, things could get really fucked up quick.

So there could be big movements in interest rates in either direction.

Someone could also pull back the curtain on how the Europeans are keeping their interest rates between countries at a seemingly reasonable level. If that happens...well the Euro could simply not exist...maybe even overnight.
4661   HeadSet   2024 Mar 23, 7:11am  

AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home prices.

I presume you mean that for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in price to maintain the same monthly payment. If inflation and other factors keep the house prices elevated despite the rate increases, then people will continue to rent, settle for smaller houses, or double up.
4662   AD   2024 Mar 23, 10:23am  

HeadSet says


AD says

For every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in home prices.

I presume you mean that for every 1% increase in the 30 yr mortgage rate, there should be a 10% drop in price to maintain the same monthly payment. If inflation and other factors keep the house prices elevated despite the rate increases, then people will continue to rent, settle for smaller houses, or double up.



Yes, it is about mortgage affordability as the price of the house would have to drop 10% if the 30 year mortgage rate increases by 1%.

That is if the mortgage applicant is at the maximum loan rate (as percentage of household income) before the rate would increase by 1%.

For around here in the Florida panhandle, seems like townhomes are not above the peak prices set in early 2022, YET income has gone up since early 2022.
4663   Maga_Chaos_Monkey   2024 Mar 23, 1:17pm  

AD says

all about ABC


Coffee is for closers!
4664   gabbar   2024 Mar 24, 7:59am  

"The process of buying and selling houses in the United States is an egregious example of special interest politics" - Larry Summers, US Secretary of Treasury, President of Harvard University, March 2024
4665   Patrick   2024 Mar 28, 8:52am  

https://socketsite.com/archives/2024/03/median-new-home-sale-price-drops-down-nearly-20-from-peak.html


At the same time, the median sale price of the new homes sold last month dropped nearly 4 percent, from an upwardly revised $414,900 in January to $400,500 in February and was down 7.6 percent on a year-over-year basis and nearly 20 percent below its fourth quarter of 2022 peak, with inventory levels, which are over 40 percent higher than prior to the pandemic, having ticked up another percent to within a percent of a 16-year high, despite continued misreporting of “supply constraints” in the press, none of which should catch any plugged-in reader’s by surprise.
4666   RWSGFY   2024 Mar 28, 9:20am  

The prices seem to have picked up recently. Out of $500K drop from the recent high on my shack $200K has been "recovered" already.

I feel rich again!
4667   Patrick   2024 Mar 30, 11:15am  

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/renting-is-now-cheaper-than-owning-in-all-of-americas-50-biggest-metro-areas-8cd4cd03


Thanks to rising home prices and elevated mortgage rates, it’s now cheaper to rent than it is to buy a home in all of America’s biggest metropolitan areas


Article still full of manipulative bullshit, but at least it gets a few of the facts right.
4668   AD   2024 Mar 30, 12:56pm  

Patrick says

but at least it gets a few of the facts right.


Patrick, they still charging ~2021 rental rates

https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1874-Pointe-Dr-Panama-City-Beach-FL-32407/251474936_zpid/

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4669   WookieMan   2024 Mar 30, 2:24pm  

AD says

Patrick, they still charging ~2021 rental rates

Because building is too expensive and there's no labor force for it. Younger people have no clue what a drill even is or a hammer. Construction labor costs have gone through the roof. Building is an absolute hassle now for contractors. So people move and rent out their houses and don't build new anymore. Inventory stays restricted. No one new learns to build.

We're close to building a $700k ranch in a town with a median of about $260k.... Think about why there's no new inventory in many areas? My new house won't even appraise. 2,200 SF ranch. Sure it's a lot of concrete and form work, but that's not a big house at all. We'll eat it and can afford the payment. It's where we want to be. And I'm not buying/building a shit box, builder grade piece of shit. I have standards for my forever home.

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