patrick.net

WookieMan says

Getting taken advantage of. I simply don't play that game. When you have nothing to lose you have all the leverage. $2M in untouchable money and assets. I also have connections. Everything legal.

You are a yokel. $2M in "assets" isn't squat when it comes to influencing local officials. In fact, I am very sure that most of my neighbors have over $2M not including their house. Just a few miles down the road is neighborhood of $10M homes, and a quick look at public records shows they did not get a break either. Also, as I said on a prior post, I was on the phone with the actual county assessor for at least 1/2 hour while he explained in detail why my assessment was going to stay at the increased level.

And just how is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?

HeadSet says

And just is your $2M "untouchable?" Is it the cash value of a disability annuity or pension? Inherited IRAs? Are you including the value of your wife's life insurance if she should die?

Untouchable. Another $2M if we're talking life insurance. Her or I die and it's $4M at 41-42 years of age. Not including equity in our house. At a conservative interest rate of 2% I'm looking at $80k per year. Doing nothing and not draining the $2M or if one of us dies $4M. I'm retired now basically. Wife could be too. Just have 6 more years with kids and we're done at 48 roughly.

The office-debt meltdown keeps getting worse. The motto in 2024 was “Survive till 2025” via extend-and-pretend. But now what?

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

This with interest rates higher than they started last year and higher property taxes and much higher insurance.

Look at credit cards. People want to keep their houses. Those numbers are up bigly for day to day purchases. Not sure what Trump can do. Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels. Clinton, Bush and Obama having two consecutive terms regardless of how you feel about them led to some stability.

We'll see if Trump can right the ship in 4 years. He's already trying. Not sure how quickly he can extinguish this dumpster fire he's left with. This is a shit show right now. Where is Biden? Don't care about Harris as she's a dumb ass. I think everyone has just gone on vacation till the 20th.

WookieMan says

Biden was an absolute failure of a leader on so many levels.

Although they say don't mistake incompetence for malice, it is also important to not mistake malice for incompetence.

Misc says

Meanwhile another month went by and another monthly high for the Case/Shiller.

For houses, yes.

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long* ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

* Not long ago = 2022

Blackstone is selling. His most recent video has data on the Blackstone and their and other Holding Companies, letting go of 3-5% of their inventory in TX and FL, where their biggest shares are.
Blackstone dumping in FL
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=G2BZbCbGN0g&t=57s

Blackstone and others dumping in TX, the #1 state for Investor-owned SFH:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iSrstSITn7A

"I'm smarter than Wall Street" - Harry Homeseller Holding Out

Fuck the rates. It's the underlying price that's the stumbling block. Mortgage rates don't impact property taxes or homeowner's insurance; the price does.

AmericanKulak says

Mortgage applications are in the toilet, homebuilders are building SFHs at a 2006 pace. Completed sales are like the early 90s but now we have 20-30% more population





https://wolfstreet.com/2024/12/30/buyers-strike-continues-pending-home-sales-remain-deep-in-the-frozen-zone-though-up-a-tad-from-rock-bottom/

Homeloaners are up the River in Egypt as usual. "Ed across the street sold his house for $500k not long ago! Just let Trump get the rates down and I'll show Ed by selling mine for $550k! "

Not long ago = 2022

Someone needs to tell this guy that: https://patrick.net/post/1383080/2025-01-03-housing-prices-will-not-go-down

"So? Look at those early 20s and mid 30s peaks!"

And we haven't built 50-60M housing units these past 3 decades? Is the boomer housing going to disappear along with the boomers?

Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more. Also house building has maintained a fairly slow pace since covid, builders are cautious amd hesitant. Not a lot of new construction has hit the market, reducing overall supply

mell says

"Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will
go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more."

No because we are having an artificial housing bubble for the last 30 years or so going back to
Alan Greenspan. My take is that under Trump the housing bubble will collapse.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"Trump will neither own a housing crash nor runaway inflation. Prices will
go up slowly is my prediction, 1-5 percent per year not more."

No because we are having an artificial housing bubble for the last 30 years or so going back to
Alan Greenspan. My take is that under Trump the housing bubble will collapse.

For that to happen you need a significant recession. with a lot of 3% mortgage holders losing their jobs, otherwise these 15 and 30 yr mortgages are a lock and people will stick with it. Don't see a significant recession happening under Trump. People have been calling for the collapse since this site existed and it never happened. The closest we came was 2008 but then they pumped a lot of money into the sector and it hasn't left it yet, mostly people sitting on fixed low apr mortgages. Not saying RE is a good investment right now, but no crash in sight imo

mell says

"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

The_Deplorable says

mell says

"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

All countries around the world practice zirp yet, what it causes is inflation and I agree with you about fraudulent, but willing to bet prices will rise around 2-3% 2025, they rose 4% in 2024. Zirp is not directly correlated with RE, just one factor. There is a chance of a significant downturn in RE if interest rates rise to double digits and beyond, not without it all else being equal imo

The_Deplorable says

mell says
"For that to happen you need a significant recession."

No. Artificial low interest rates for 30 plus years is a fraud of gargantuan proportions
and this is coming to an end under Trump.

We're at historic normal or slightly normal rates right now. As mell said the rates don't matter if people don't sell. That's where we're at. The 20-35 crowd just keeps renting. No buyer demand. Owners have good rates. The people moving is for jobs now, not location or lifestyle. That was done after 2012-2018 roughly.

If anything housing will continue to rise under Trump because if he reduces the cost of energy the cost of building plummets. No one is buying is the problem. So builders are reluctant. You're going to see a +5% or -5% depending where you live the next 4 years. Coastal areas will be down most likely and TX. No crash coming.

What would happen to the housing market and the economy at large if the mortgage rates were 28%?

Eric Holder says

What would happen to the housing market and the economy at large if the mortgage rates were 28%?

Good things, starting with large down payments and house prices falling to be affordable by savers. Also, reasonable homes, no mini-mansion inflation hedges. The paid-off house will be the goal and the norm.

HeadSet says

Eric Holder says

What would happen to the housing market and the economy at large if the mortgage rates were 28%?

Good things, starting with large down payments and house prices falling to be affordable by savers. Also, reasonable homes, no mini-mansion inflation hedges. The paid-off house will be the goal and the norm.

Are you saying that every current owner will be completely fooked?

Eric Holder says

What would happen to the housing market and the economy at large if the mortgage rates were 28%?

Houses that were bought for $500k will be for sale for $100k or even less.

AFTER those $500k houses stay frozen from the markets for as long as possible. Unless the corporate house holders dump entire neighborhood blocks that they own to get the hell out pronto. <-- this is a distinct possibility in some housing markets that never happened before. If mortgage rates are in the double digits then their carrying costs should also be, too.

What person homeowners and their lending institutions do in reaction to that will be interesting. Those that own outright will sell quick like the corpos. Those that are debtslaved will mail in the keys and squat like we saw in 2009-12 before.

RWSGFY says

Are you saying that every current owner will be completely fooked?

The ones that own the homes outright, no. Loan holders with just a few years to go, no. Loan holders that are seriously underwater can toss the keys to the bank. In reality though, if we had 28% rates that means serious inflation so the houses would have appreciated well above the original loan value.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

Eric Holder says

What would happen to the housing market and the economy at large if the mortgage rates were 28%?

Houses that were bought for $500k will be for sale for $100k or even less.

AFTER those $500k houses stay frozen from the markets for as long as possible. Unless the corporate house holders dump entire neighborhood blocks that they own to get the hell out pronto. <-- this is a distinct possibility in some housing markets that never happened before. If mortgage rates are in the double digits then their carrying costs should also be, too.

What person homeowners and their lending institutions do in reaction to that will be interesting. Those that own outright will sell quick like the corpos. Those that are debtslaved will mail in the keys and squat like we saw in 2009-12 before.

You are not counting the replacement cost for housing into your equation. It acts as a floor for existing housing pricing as long as the demand to purchase available for sale units is there. We would have to get to the situation that Japan is in for steep interest rate increases to kill the value of homes like you’re suggesting ($0.20 on the dollar).

Real assets don't go down in value during periods of rapid inflation.

Misc says

"Real assets don't go down in value during periods of rapid inflation."

They do if you are in a 30 year old fraudulent housing bubble.

ForcedTQ says

steep interest rate increases to kill the value of homes like

WTF do you think 28% mortgage rates are?

Higher interest rates are a sign of inflation. Irrespective of cause and effect, inflation is a slow steamroller to push real assets values higher and higher. Corrupt policies and free printing press are the primary root cause for the inflation.

Blue says

inflation is a slow steamroller to push real assets values higher and higher.

Not when interest rates go up as well. Particularly when they go up to 28%, which is the context we are discussing here.

Long term, you can be correct. And in hyperinflationary environments, asset values collapse in nominal value, actually.

I’m not sure housing will ever fall in value in any meaningful way.

1. Fiat
2. Job destroying tech
3. H1B et al
4. Endless immigration. Btw, Trump is only going to kick the criminal immies out.
5. One of the best ways of making $$ is
a. Owning lots of assets and then b. Making
it more and more difficult to produce those
same assets. Short supply raises prices.

DOGEWontAmountToShit says

ForcedTQ says

steep interest rate increases to kill the value of homes like

WTF do you think 28% mortgage rates are?

You missed the entire first part of that sentence, you would have to have a situation like Japan. Where there is so much supply and not even the bodies to fill the homes.

ForcedTQ says

You missed the entire first part of that sentence, you would have to have a situation like Japan. Where there is so much supply and not even the bodies to fill the homes.

Everything is rentals now. Having lived it and watched my parents get wiped out in real estate, younger people don't want the "American Dream" for now. There's no demand and any potential supply is locked up in low interest rates or paid off.

It's not a boom and interest rates don't matter if people don't sell. If you're good at your 4% interest rate, why would you sell? 28% would just reduce inventory and those that "need" to move keep bumping the prices up. Low interest rates caused where we are now. Can't say it enough. Inventory. A crash is 12-18 months inventory and I don't see that anywhere.

ForcedTQ says

you would have to have a situation like Japan.

No.

Demand destruction is a permanent downward shift on the demand curve in the direction of lower demand of a commodity induced by a prolonged period of high prices or constrained supply.

WookieMan says

If you're good at your 4% interest rate, why would you sell?

Because you can't afford assisted living, or you died and your kids don't want to live in Del Boca Vista 55+ Community for Active Seniors, or there's no jobs in Rustbeltowaga, OH and dad really stopped maintenance about 10 years ago when he busted his hip.

"I tell you nobody has more stuffed wallabies than me. Did I tell you the guys in the Wallaby Association of America were floored by my collection? I already filled the Guest Bedroom! I'm leaving it for you, it's worth a Million Dollars I'm sure"