patrick.net

I thought we were talking about long term trends; now you're picking very short periods to compare.

camping says

I thought we were talking about long term trends; now you’re picking very short periods to compare.

Hmmmm, so I am assuming the decision whether to buy home now or in 2012 (different is only three years) is got to be based on 30 year long term trend. I would recommend you to look at all the small/large bumps in interest rate chart and check how they affect home value.

P2D2 says

camping says

I thought we were talking about long term trends; now you’re picking very short periods to compare.

Hmmmm, so I am assuming the decision whether to buy home now or in 2012 (different is only three years) is got to be based on 30 year long term trend. I would recommend you to look at all the small/large bumps in interest rate chart and check how they affect home value.

I think you should do the same. Historically, when mortgage rates were high, home values went up with the exception of the past few years. I would imagine you agree house prices generally track inflation. Interest rates are higher with higher inflation (generally). Therefore, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are high, and house prices go up.

camping says

I think you should do the same. Historically, when mortgage rates were high, home values went up with the exception of the past few years. I would imagine you agree house prices generally track inflation. Interest rates are higher with higher inflation (generally). Therefore, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are high, and house prices go up.

LOL! I don't know how to answer this one. When mortgage rates were high, home value went up - that's a news to me. Past few years mortgage rates were high? I thought the whole housing bubble was created by combination of lower interest rate and ninja loans.

P2D2 says

camping says

I think you should do the same. Historically, when mortgage rates were high, home values went up with the exception of the past few years. I would imagine you agree house prices generally track inflation. Interest rates are higher with higher inflation (generally). Therefore, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are high, and house prices go up.

LOL! I don’t know how to answer this one. When mortgage rates were high, home value went up - that’s a news to me. Past few years mortgage rates were high? I thought the whole housing bubble was created by combination of lower interest rate and ninja loans.

You can answer it by looking at the charts. Yes, the past 8 years were an exception partially based on easy credit. What were mortgage rates like in the early 80's? What does the chart show for home prices? http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/

camping says

What were mortgage rates like in the early 80’s? What does the chart show for home prices?

If I am reading the chart correctly inflation adjusted home price dropped between 1980-1984 (from $150K to $130K). As I have explained already the price went up when interest rate started increasing (because very same psychology "buy before interest rate goes up farther"), but eventually price fell.

Yes, because of high inflation. The nominal value went up. Where do you have your money to keep up with high inflation and liquid enough for you to buy a house when you are ready?

camping says

Where do you have your money to keep up with high inflation and liquid enough for you to buy a house when you are ready?

Isn't it the very same slogan "don't get price out forever" Realtors keep saying all the time? If inflation goes up and income does not keep up in real value accordingly, home value is destined to drop in real value anyway. The whole thing boils down to affordability. If people don't have enough money to buy home in inflationary environment, home value will drop. Let me ask you a very simple question: do you think household income is going to keep up with inflation in next few years?

Not sure about all that HIPPA did but I can tell you from personal experience what it did for me. Had a business that had a small group PPO plan that office and management other workers were covered under union contracts. Due to divorce and other reasons I decided to close the company and move to another state. I have a pre-existing non-life threatening condition completely under control with relatively inexpensive medication. Upon moving to another state I was denied personal policy by the two largest insurers. Because of HIPPA, AKA Kennedy-Kassenbaum or the Federal Portability Act I was able to get coverage under a HIPPA plan from one of the same companies that had previously denied me coverage. The rules that are written into the law are fairly complex and I would bet many people don't take advantage of it or even know about it. It is expensive coverage and cost controls vary from state to state which is another absurdity of the current general system but fortunately I could/can afford it. Personally, I would just like a catastrophic policy and deal with the minor costs of health care myself but that for me is not available. All I can get is a HIPPA policy

What is not to love about the Texas Hill Country? My only problem with Texas is the outsiders coming in and screwing it all up. I am not just talking about the cheap labor from the south. The damn yankees have got to be the worst. To make up for it, I invaded NW Ohio to operate one of their nuke plants because they could not find enough qualified people around locally. I guess they all went to Texas :)

rdm, thanks for sharing that story. It was getting rather one-sided about HIPAA.

Some Guy says

Tell you what. Why don’t you or Kevin or anyone (except Nixon-troll, who I am ignoring), explain what socialized medicine is, and then explain why what Ten Pound Bass is proposing (not Obama’s plan - TPBs plan) is NOT socialized medicine. And do so without irrelevant emotion.

TPB's "plan" seems to be a semi-coherent rant, so I don't know what that is. If he's proposing a socialistic plan, that's fine, but that's not what anyone who matters is proposing, and is irrelevant to the discussion. I don't even know where the "communist" talk is coming from either, it sounded like more insane ranting from a bunch of people who have no idea what the fuck they're talking about.

Just pasting this in here in its entirety, from crikey.com - non-US take on the political situation:

Guy Rundle writes: Barely drawing breath after his ground-breaking Cairo speech, Barack Obama is charging into what will be one of the biggest stoushes in American politics, his plan to reform the hopeless US health system. Obama launched his campaign in a speech in Wisconsin, urging people who supported him to get behind the plan and lobby their Congress members, because “this may be our one chance to get health care reform through.” It would be difficult to over-estimate the risks associated with trying to make even the most basic changes to US health-care. It was after all the failure of Hillary Clinton’s complex plan in 1993 that did more than anything to hole the Clinton Presidency below the waterline, at least as far as being a liberal regime went. Clinton’s plan wasn’t even the dreaded “single-payer” system, the term the US Right uses as some sort of North-Korean image for what Australians would know of as Medicare — baseline state-run universal coverage supplemented by private options. Instead it was an attempt to continue to run health insurance through private providers, while explicitly mandating how much they would charge, how much they would pay out, limiting their ability to exclude people with pre-existing conditions, and so on. It was a scheme designed to please no-one — Big Health were always going to be against it, and the liberal-left wouldn’t get behind it because they were still holding out for a single-payer system, which would not — as would have the Clinton plan — flood rivers of gold into the insurance companies for stuff that could be done at knock-down prices by the state. Since then, the organized left have been pretty much beaten down in Congress, and health care in the US has become much worse. This has given Obama a great political opportunity to get real reform through — but only at the price of proposing a scheme so unthreatening to Big Health, that it will see the wisdom of acquiescing to it. Why did American health get so much worse than it was at the time of the Clinton plan, when it was already pretty dead? Deregulation between 2000-2006 was one factor — a release of the (fairly-worn) brakes that were on the insurers in terms of denying continuing care to the chronically ill, excluding pre-existing illnesses and aggressively using the bankruptcy laws to recover costs. Another has been the open-ended nature of private medical care — as new techniques and tests are introduced year-on-year, open-ended health plans are faced with spiralling costs, created by the increasing demands of patients, and the desire of GPs to bill for endless additional (and often unnecessary) services. With no qualitative and triage-based control of health-care spending, the more consumerist options will crowd out necessity. The ideal health insurance client is a member of the “worried well”, paying top-hole premiums for routine services, the lions’ share of the service fees going to the insurers. The worst client is the one for whom any rational health system should be designed — the chronically ill, the suddenly desperately ill, the seriously injured etc, and health insurers spend most of their energy throwing these people off their lists. The coup de grace has been the sharp rise in unemployment in the US, which has deprived many people of their employer-based health insurance–– the auto manufacturers bail-out deal alone cuts by 50% the health care available to up to a million former car workers and their families, just as many of them are ageing. The core of Obama’s plan is what’s known as a National Health Insurance Exchange, which is a sneaky way of offering public health insurance to the 45 million Americans who don’t have any insurance whatsoever (and aren’t eligible for the below-poverty-line Medicare scheme) — and simultaneously providing subsidised matching fixed-prices schemes offered by private providers, so that no-one can scream socialism. Surrounding this are various measures such as $10 billion in grants to get nationwide electronic record-keeping up and running — US hospitals are the last places in the developed word where the faxes run hot day and night with paper records being transferred — and some real battles, such as prohibiting the exclusion of pre-existing conditions. The advantages of the scheme are all political — people are so angry with health insurers (average premiums have doubled in the last six years), terrified of bankruptcy (half of the million bankruptcies a year in the US are due to medical costs), and worried for their children’s health, that Congress members who simply roll over for their Big Health campaign donors will find themselves the target of grassroots attack in upcoming party primaries for the 2010 elections. The disadvantage is that it’s a monstrously expensive way to achieve what single-payer cover does for half the cost, and twice the result — provide universal optimum health. But if Obama can get this, and if the 2010 Senate vote gives an enhanced Democratic majority, then there is a bridgehead from which non-pauper public health cover can be expanded, thus denying the Right the chance to make a huge fight over it, and gradually converting the American people to the idea that public health provision is not socialism. And also, if it succeeds, proving once again that the road of recent American political history is littered with the bones of those who underestimated Barack Hussein Obama. If it fails? We may find out — health insurers here are starting to make noises about unaffordable Medicare and transitioning to a US health system. So remember to choose which leg you’d like to save if they both get infected, because your plan may not cover both.

Some Guy says

WillyWanker says

The fact that his mother was white is something you just can’t handle. BitterMuch?

Let’s see: Number of times you’ve brought it up: 3 Number of times I’ve brought it up: 0 Yeah, *I’m* the one who can’t handle it. Suuure…..

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Some Guy Joined: January 10th, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 207 July 22nd, 2009 at 10:48 am | top | quote | email this It’s just tearing you guys up that a BLACK MAN became president, isn’t it? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Excuse me, but it was YOU who made the proclamation that some here could not stand having an 'black man' for president. I just corrected your mistake. YOU brought up the race card. Because you can't defend your own positions you feel a need to call anyone who disagrees with you a racist. Just like your messiah in the White House, you can't help yourself but embrace 'race issues' to distort an argument. Hussein is having a tough time with his ObamaCare so he sticks his snout into a police issue and calls police officers 'stupid' and then he attempts to backtrack when he sees that the words he chose may have carried more weight than he had originally intended. 0bama needs to start 'calibrating' his words better. LOL 0bama's not afraid of starting race riots as longs as the country is distracted from the issues at hand. And you are forced to call everyone who disagrees with you a racist because you can't find other words to defend yourself. Good luck with that, asshole.

I had to ask what box to check when I went to college. Some people need to be told who they are.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry. >>I’m starting to understand that the Majority of the Republicans aren’t necessarily Conservatives or Republicans That I can agree with. I'd estimate that a good 50+% of the people that vote Republican have not understood that GOP does not stand for what they claim to stand for, and does not do what it claims to do. The inner circle understandswhat GOP is really doing. The rest has not a clue. >>they just know for damn sure they aren’t a “Liberal” or a “Democrat”, That pretty much sums up the scam that is Karl Rove propaganda, right there.

P2D2 says

camping says

Yes, and median income is generally related to inflation.

Again, not all the time. In last 10 years median income did not increase (in real term or actual dollar value), although 2005-2008 inflation was pretty high. Same argument goes for early 80s. median income chart Inflation charts Because there are other factors like GDP. In addition, different demographics have different curves - depending on local job growth (e.g hitech job growth in bay area in last 90s).

Plus, the past 8 years were somewhat of an oddity with free credit that caused inflation without the need for wage increases.

SG, I think Bass is actually a liberal. He just hasn't understood it yet. But maybe it is better that way, He can infiltrate the fake conservatives and confuse the hell out of them, just like he has done with me. :-)

Guess what? The richest 1% have never had it so good and I am happy to have them finance healthcare since they have gotten so rich on the backs of people who work for a living. http://www.salon.com/opinion/feature/2009/07/25/sirota/

drfelle says

Some Guy says

How would YOU solve the healthcare crisis?

Another Lesson: There is no healthcare crisis! But there is an Entitlement Crisis.

Within 30 years there will be more retired people than working people. Retired people need substantially more health care than working people. Health insurers won't cover these people. Union funds are virtually dead. That leaves us with two options: 1. Medicare 2. Let everyone die in the street Since the vast majority of us aren't a bunch of whackjobs, we're looking for ways to save #1. The only way that is going to happen is to lower overall costs of medical care. That is the entire root of the health care discussion, but you're too blind to even realize it. What is your solution to the coming millions upon millions of people (which you will be amongst) that will have no health care options other than government-provided medicare? "Be Responsible", your favorite mantra, isn't going to work here. What is an elderly person supposed to do to "Be Responsible"? Lets say that they managed to save 20-30% of everything that they were earning, and now they have a million or two in the bank. How many hip replacements and cancer treatments is that going to pay for? Bitching is not going to do a god damned thing for anyone. It is absolutely imperative that costs come down. We can not afford to continue to have health care costs growing at twice the rate of inflation.

Sean says

Just pasting this in here in its entirety, from crikey.com - non-US take on the political situation:

Guy Rundle writes: The disadvantage is that it’s a monstrously expensive way to achieve what single-payer cover does for half the cost, and twice the result — provide universal optimum health. But if Obama can get this, and if the 2010 Senate vote gives an enhanced Democratic majority, then there is a bridgehead from which non-pauper public health cover can be expanded, thus denying the Right the chance to make a huge fight over it, and gradually converting the American people to the idea that public health provision is not socialism.

"gradually converting the American people to the idea that public health provision is not socialism."... This is the most eye opening line of the article. It is amazing how 10 % of the americans with too much money got 90 % of the americans to believe that somehow socialism is a bad idea. This is the power of the propaganda. The 10 % who own media, corporate and political system can simply make everyone else agree to their agenda. Socialism or capitalism they are both bad if taken to extremes. If we take some good things from both that will be the best system. Of course this kind of reality has no room in the agenda of the elite. Why should they have to go to govt run medical system when they can actually afford the private system anyways. How can an average american be so stupid as to run away from a public health care system which will be always available to them. Is it only because some people have spread propaganda that somehow socialism is such a bad thing.... Oh yeah it is okay to save banks though because in this case it was the bad karma of the elite itself....so now socialism in disguise is fine.... Really shameful state of affairs in this country....

>>you’re looking our for #1! I think someone here is holding poor people to a higher standard of selflessness than the richest 1%. The correct answer is that progressive people want a FAIR system for everyone. I suggest to ignore people who will not argue the facts but rather try to cast suspicion on perfectly relevant data and analysis. Keep it short and sweet, do not try to reform or educate the the troll. They are beyond redemption. A one-liner is often the best.

Here is it over 16 years latter and both are still going, but during the tech boom and the RE boom could you imagine the money a public healthcare system would have or could have stored away in their coffers by now. Of course I’d be talking about a nonprofit or not for profit health care system, or a government ran system, where each working person was just taxed a small percent of their income. A tax amount one tenth of what insurance premiums run us now. We’d still be in great shape.

Yea - if we had done something 16 years ago, we wouldn't be in the shape we're in now. And... if we do something now, we won't be bleeding so badly in the future. I agree it needs to be govt or non-profit run; however, the current non-profit model doesn't work so well. The predominant system in the intermountain west charges the same as private companies, spends a hell of a lot on commercials touting their excellence, and denies patient care at the same rate as other hospitals. Considering that they're the only hospital system in Utah and a chunk of Idaho, I'd rather see them pouring their $ into providing healthcare to those who can't afford it. Their contracted doctors don't see people who can't afford to pay, but they go on building huge new clinics & hospitals to spend their $ so that they can maintain their non-profit status. They also give huge bonuses to execs & employees if they're making too much money - instead of giving back to the patients. I've known several elderly people who received personal visits from a rep from the local hospital system after they were discharged, in an attempt to get the patient to leave a chunk of their estate to the hospital. The family found out on one of them and sat in the next room - they were appalled at the high pressure guilt tactics the guy used.

Right, non-profit is a misnomer in a great many cases. Non-profit really means that it is run for the financial benefit of the employees, rather than shareholders. But the profit motive remains the same. They can pay themselves as much money as they want to, for the most part.

drfelle says

This might sound crazy, but I know “elderly” people. They have health care….crazy huh? Twenty years ago, this same healthcare scare tactic “crisis” was being peddled to 40 and 50 year olds; and guess what?? They’re now 60-70 yrs young, respectively, and they have healthcare.

The elderly people all have health care through medicare + supplemental insurance that medicare co-insurers are REQUIRED, by FEDERAL LAW to cover. Take away medicare and what do you have? drfelle says

Says who? People are living longer thus they can plan longer and work longer. Are you saying people are “entitled” to retire without proper planning?

I'm saying that no amount of "proper planning" can deal with health care costs growing this fast. Medicare can't afford this. We'll have to double (at minimum) the current medicare taxes within a decade, harming every working person for the benefit of the elderly. When you take money away from working people, you take money out of the overall economy and hurt everyone further. drfelle says

That is exactly what you guys are!

Who the fuck are "you guys"? drfelle says

You libs don’t care about anyone else’s situation but your own.

If that were true, I wouldn't give a shit about everyone else's health care, since I've got mine. What I care about is the overall well being of society as a whole. I care about preventing social unrest, and improving standards of living. I want the world to be a better place. drfelle says

Let’s look at the housing “crisis” for example. There is no sympathy for people that acquired a mortgage they can no longer afford. Bailout? Hell no!

Hypocrite. What happened to "personal responsibility"? I suppose personal responsibility only applies in your case when dealing with something you've never had to be personally responsible for? drfelle says

The same goes for Healthcare. You want someone else to take up one of your expenses so you can spend that money on other “WANTS”. Quit hiding behind your “I’m a bleeding heart lib” stereotype and start admitting why you want healtcare socialized. It’s not because you’re looking out for the elderly, you’re looking our for #1!

No, troll, I want health care reform because the costs are too high, and dumping all of this money into health care is taking money away from all the other areas that need it (essential things like education, food, and infrastructure). And, if you had any reading comprehension skills whatsoever, you'd notice that I don't support "socialized" health care at all. I support a system like the one in Switzerland, which is far, far removed from anything resembling "socialized" health care. Take off your tinfoil hat and you'll discover that the whole world isn't out to get you. Tenpoundbass says

Here is it over 16 years latter and both are still going

And both cost much more, just like was predicted. There is zero risk of these systems "failing". The risk is that they will consume an ever-growing percentage of the economy, harming everything else. You can always raise SS and medicare taxes, but every additional dollar you're spending on these programs is a dollar that you're taking away from other essential programs and out of the private sector.

Kevin say:

The elderly people all have health care through medicare + supplemental insurance that medicare co-insurers are REQUIRED, by FEDERAL LAW to cover. Take away medicare and what do you have?

I disagree with many things that Nixon's friend says, and I loathe to feed him. However, there is a bit of a misconception when it comes to Medicare: "Medicare Part A is provided to most Social Security recipients at no cost because they or their spouses paid Medicare taxes while they worked. It is possible to buy Medicare A; if the beneficiary or spouse never paid Medicare taxes or didn’t pay enough to be fully vested into the system, SSA will calculate the premium amount for a senior that will be withheld from his Social Security check every month. The amount varies according to a formula SSA uses, with the current (2009) maximum premium amount set at $443.00 per month." (source: Taking the Mystery out of Medicare, available on www.cmseldercare.com) ---------------------------- In other words, Medicare is available to most seniors, but if they didn't pay into the system they'll have to cough up a huge premium for Part A. The Part B premium, charged to all beneficiaries regardless of amounts they paid in, is currently about $100 per month (more for higher-income seniors). Please note these amounts increase by 10% per year for each year the senior was eligible for the insurance but refused it, unless they already had coverage that was equal to or exceeded the benefits Medicare offers. So far as supplements, there are 12 standardized supplements available to help pay the amounts that Medicare approves but doesn't pay. There are also Part C Advantage programs (aka Health Maintenence Organizations) that offer benefits to Medicare recipients. However, insurance companies aren't required to offer these programs and some of the premiums charged are so great that seniors can't afford them. Federal law regulates those companies that offer the supplements but there is no mandate that they offer the plans. And people are denied coverage for supplements on a regular basis. If they're too sick, an insurance company can (and does) deny insurance. But seniors can enroll in an HMO during open enrollment without the threat of being denied due to health issues.

drfelle says

Correction: They’re not given anything, they EARN it. And if Joe wants to EARN a larger share of the nation’s wealth, he needs to get off of his lazy arse and make it happen.

They earn it???????? HAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAHA Paris Hilton earned her millions? The fuckhead CEO of Aetna earned his 24 million dollar salary? Sorry douchebag, you sure are dumb. The elites of this country have suckers like you brainwashed. What exactly do you need to do to EARN 24 million dollars? (Besides tell cancer patients they don't qualify for treatment?) Is the CEO of some corporation millions of times smarter or harder working than you? No. It's called nepotism and ol boys networks. GET REAL DUMMY!!!!

Some Guy says

It’s just tearing you guys up that a black man became president, isn’t it?

****Yawn***** I was wondering how long it would take before some lib accused anyone with a different opinion of being a racist. Really, it's getting a bit old, and it only proves you can't make a persuasive argument for your point of view.

The Original Bankster says

listen up. this is what is going on. right now we are in a massive fake out scheme run by the banks to get as many of their loans off the books (profitably) as possible because we about to have massive inflation. Deflationary spiral? CANNOT HAPPEN- because the fed will just inflate out of it. Deflation is a problem that is very easy to remedy. sure keep believing that our overlords are going to allow deflation to continue given that we have massive national debt. HOW WILL WE SERVICE THIS DEBT IN A DEFLATIONARY ENVIRONMENT? it is impossible. open your freaking eyes. It will not be the choice of the Fed, it will be a necessity. I think that the inflation will begin with an event in sept/oct. There’s far too many credible people dropping hints about a new international currency.

Inflation will not happen. Inflation happens when many people are competing over the same goods. Spending is way down and prices are down everywhere. Things are coming down in cost, not going up. Also, rates cannot go up as high as people may think. China cannot allow this to happen. If rates went up a lot, there portfolio of bonds would be killed. Also, if China allowed rates here to go up, the dollar would fall and China's goods would be more expensive. Their economy would suffer too much. I just do not see how China could ever let inflation get out of control here. It would destroy their entire economy. All they can do is keep buying treasury bonds to keep the cycle of money flowing. Expect relatively low rates for a long time.

drfelle says

maillinglist114 says

They earn it???????? HAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAHA Paris Hilton earned her millions? The fuckhead CEO of Aetna earned his 24 million dollar salary? Sorry douchebag, you sure are dumb. The elites of this country have suckers like you brainwashed. What exactly do you need to do to EARN 24 million dollars? (Besides tell cancer patients they don’t qualify for treatment?) Is the CEO of some corporation millions of times smarter or harder working than you? No. It’s called nepotism and ol boys networks. GET REAL DUMMY!!!!

I see the geniuses are starting to hang out here now. A great addition to the Lib team.

Ooohh, calling me names now like lib and genius. Well I am liberal and much smarter than you so - thanks dummy! Glad you've come to your senses and did not try and argue your right winger talking points.

Some Guy says

okkey5 says Some Guy says It’s just tearing you guys up that a black man became president, isn’t it? ****Yawn***** I was wondering how long it would take before some lib accused anyone with a different opinion of being a racist. Really, it’s getting a bit old, and it only proves you can’t make a persuasive argument for your point of view. Fucking bullshit. You right-wingers like to play this game that goes like this: Someone makes a comment about black people and tap-dancing, which anyone with two brain cells to rub together KNOWS is about the biggest racial stereotype there is. Or that asshole who used to be on the forum equates black people with monkeys, the second biggest racial stereotype there is. Then you get called on it, and suddenly this giant halo appears over your head: “Who ME? Why I’m not a racist. I just thought maybe Obama likes watermelon and used to work as a bellhop. Perfectly innocent comment.” So fuck all you right-wing trolls and your little games, because I am not stupid enough to fall for that shit

You've just proven my point, really I couldn't have made it any better. What absolute nonsense, no one (on this thread at least) said anything remotely racist. They simply made points you couldn't argue with, so you resort to name-calling, swearing and other childish behavior. And by the way, how could you possibly know what's in the heart of a total stranger posting a comment on an internet forum, and whether they are racist? How very arrogant, but not surprising since you can't seem to formulate a complete sentence without insults, curse words and totally incoherent rants.

Rundle: God bless America, because someone needs to Guy Rundle writes: Well. It's been another tough few weeks for Obama – to say nothing of his increasingly frazzled cheer squad, watching from the sidelines, thermos untouched by their side, hand-made banner wilting from lack of use. Mired in a struggle to get a fairly modest set of health-care reforms through, the Prez was sidetracked by the messy arrest of black academic Henry Louis Gates, and a subsequent intervention therein. As a third whammy, the new front in the Afghan war is already starting to bog down -- as it inevitably would -- the stimulus package has not kicked in yet, and may well be vastly less than is required, and, well isn't that enough? Health care is the big one, the fight that Republicans think will break Obama if they can win it -- just as it broke Bill Clinton's first presidency, as the GOP took control of Congress, and launched a full-scale war against the executive branch. Hillary Clinton's health care plan at that time was a complex system, which edged towards a dominant public option -- and more importantly imposed a vast series of standard pricings and conditions on private insurance. The aim was to stop average Americans being cheated and gouged by Big Health, but if it ever had a chance of getting through Congress (when it was still controlled by Democrats) that was killed by the Clintons' high-handed "take it or leave it" approach -- brave, and the sort of thing that sections of the left are demanding of Obama, but suicidal in the face of a Congress of members permanently running for re-election, and drip fed by Health system donations. Obama's model is more modest than that -- but still a big ask for the American system. At the core of it he wants a "health care exchange" -- a fancy-pants way of saying that a public health insurance plan would always be available to any American who wanted to purchase it (together with the Medicare system for low income earners), and that people on crap existing plans could jump out of them into the public system. Unlike Oz Medicare, the public plan is just one plan among many, paid for out of general tax revenue, rather than a universal specific levy. The fact that Obama has got centrist "Blue Dog" Democrats even talking and negotiating about this means that he has got genuine universal health care provision closer to fruition than any President since the attempt was first made under Harry Truman. But almost jumping over a crevasse ain't much of an achievement, and failing to get the system up would be a big blow to his Presidency. The safer option would have been to leave the US system in private hands, subsidise plans for low income earners, and mandate it in the same manner as car insurance. But the result would be to put even more power in the hands of Big Health, with concomitant increase in service costs etc -- making the most expensive, least effective major health care system in the advanced world even worse. A public option would help introduce actual competition into the system, which is why Big Health hates it so much. Obama wanted a vote on the proposal before Congress ends its summer session in August -- but that relied on getting an assent from centrist Democrats, and a couple of friendly Republicans. It's a measure of the difficulties of getting the thing up, that even the House of Reps -- where the Dems have a 70+ seat majority -- is looking tough to get. The "Blue Dog" Democrats -- Senators and Reps mostly in districts or states who voted for McCain in the presidential race -- want a far more limited programme, using "health care co-operatives" to provide plans for those who can't afford anything other than the most basic care. This would be provided by private companies offering a pooled system, shouldering the burden of customers likely to cost more than they can pay over time -- but still leaving provision in the hands of a private company (worse, a monopoly of private companies). They're also baulking at the trillion dollar cost over ten years, and a host of other, smaller, concerns. The Republicans hope -- and have said, foolishly, publicly -- that the health care thing will break Obama. That's unlikely -- the Democrats will come to some deal by the vote (now pushed back to December) and the White House will make whatever compromise necessary to get something passed, that they can call a major health care reform. The issue is currently the subject of a phenomenal proxy war between groups opposed to the bill at all, and those supporting it, with TV ads, mailouts, door-knocks etc covering the nation. The GOP's fear campaign -- that overnight the US will become a health care North Korea -- is undoubtedly having an effect, but so too is a no-nonsense campaign directed at the Blue Dogs, to let them know that they will be unseated in party primaries, if they simply try and kill the bill. There's a lot of kvetching about Obama's leadership on the issue -- an underwhelming press conference that failed to deliver the inspiring whoosh people wanted -- but which was designed to not up the pressure on the Blue Dogs, such that they would feel no choice but to vote health reform down under any circumstances. But coming on top of the angst created by his comments on the false arrest of black Harvard professor Henry Louis Gates -- calling the undoubtedly stupid and possibly racist white cop who arrested the man in his own home, uh stupid -- which were uh, uh stupid, there was concern that Obama was not performing as well as he could under the slow shit-rain of a continuing Presidency. He recovered as well as he could -- calling the cop, asking him down to the White House for a beer -- which showed a touch of the old Obama, and the NUBO rule (Never Underestimate Barack Obama) holds, but it is tough times, with the smell of blood in the water. Worth considering as the Rudd government extends the federal system to all hospitals, that Americans are shrieking about a system that would minimise the number of their fellow citizens who are sent home to die, of easily curable conditions (about 15,000 last year). God bless America, because someone needs to.

http://www.crikey.com.au/2009/07/27/rundle-god-bless-america-because-someone-needs-to/

drfelle says

the one’s that can’t watch their mouths. Learn how to communicate without cursing!

Fuck that. drfelle says

I’m sure you and most people do. Like I said, you want to eliminate another one of your monthly bills so you can spring for HBO.

I already have HBO. Under just about any plan being proposed (including the Swiss system, which I am strongly in favor of), I would likely pay a lot more out of pocket than I currently pay. You have absolutely no idea what you're talking about. drfelle says

Now you’re going to claim that everyone is starving? Keep up the scare tactics.

No, troll, I'm saying that the reason why our taxes keep going higher and higher while getting us fewer and fewer returns are because the cost of programs like Medicare are devouring bigger and bigger portions of tax revenues. This cycle will only end when we bring down medical costs or when we end medicare. If we end medicare, there will be no medical coverage available to those over 70, and they'll be paying full price for treatment. Very few of these people can afford this treatment. Most will declare bankruptcy, and the costs will just be placed back on everybody else anyway as the hospitals write off the losses. You completely fail to see this happening because you're in the corner with your eyes closed and your fingers in your ears. elliemae says

However, insurance companies aren’t required to offer these programs and some of the premiums charged are so great that seniors can’t afford them. Federal law regulates those companies that offer the supplements but there is no mandate that they offer the plans.

Sorry for the poor wording. What I meant by "required" here is that any insurer that participates in part C is required to cover the seniors without prejudice for medical conditions or overall health. They can certainly deny claims for all manner of bullshit reasons after the fact, of course. There are clear advantages to the HMOs that participate in part C, and it's primarily that the tax payers are footing the vast majority of the bills and the part C provider's profits are essentially guaranteed. Again, my original point still stands. Without medicare, very few elderly people would have any health coverage at all. Without the government backing the bulk of the costs, nobody would take the risks for the (relatively low) premiums that they can earn.

elliemae says: Sorry for the poor wording. What I meant by “required” here is that any insurer that participates in part C is required to cover the seniors without prejudice for medical conditions or overall health. They can certainly deny claims for all manner of bullshit reasons after the fact, of course. There are clear advantages to the HMOs that participate in part C, and it’s primarily that the tax payers are footing the vast majority of the bills and the part C provider’s profits are essentially guaranteed. Again, my original point still stands. Without medicare, very few elderly people would have any health coverage at all. Without the government backing the bulk of the costs, nobody would take the risks for the (relatively low) premiums that they can earn. ---------------------------- IMHO Part C sucks. HMO's receive thousands for each patient they sign on each month; the more they sign on the more they make. A great trick they have is to ignore requests to disenroll - I've had several encounters with Kaiser over this one. A patient moves out of the area and the HMO refuses to disenroll, but refuses to cover the out-of-state medical costs (non-contracted providers)... They're called "Medicare Advantage" programs, but the advantage is to the insurance company. The sales people get $500/yr for the first 4 years the patient stays on the program, and a $2,500 bonus the 5th year. All for answering the phone. If a senior goes to an independent company to gain secondary insurance coverage, they're steered toward the HMO's because the work is less and the commission greater. I agree with your point that without the govt, no one would touch the seniors for coverage. Just as --------------------------------------- This thread has gotten out of hand. It's the evil libs against conservatives, and it's sooooooooo old. example: "Your such a bleeding-heart! Volunteering to pay more so you can help out the poor. I’m not falling for your lies. You might be able to fool others on here, but I know your agenda. I just figured out you libs are trying to insult me. I’m so hurt! You libs can’t participate in friendly debate without getting all emotional, cursing, and name-calling. That’s nothing new." Seems like the emotions and name calling are coming from both sides. There's nothing "friendly" about much of this "debate." Just an observation.

Tenpoundbass says

You know you remind me of my Brothers common law wife(who happens to be Cuban) teacher. She is taking a “Poverty in Society Class” as she put it, it’s actually a “Blame Whitey” class. She and a three other girls challenge her ever day she told me. And last week they had a test, since she and the three of four other girls got a 76 on the test they had to stay after class. Dare I tell you the other girls were Black? Well they were and the Liberal bitch teacher told them “How can I get you all on board with the curriculum?” To which Lisa my brothers gf said “you do get irony that you’re a white woman that kept 5 minorities after class to make us concede that we feel violated, or oppressed by the white man, when you are the only person in my life right now oppressing me?” True story!

I didn't understand any of that story.

"I'm undecided" (Or a version thereof) That's the answer I like the best on all the polls or questionnaires I find. I don't get how someone could not choose between a couple of responses. How difficult is it for some people to make a simple decision?

Thanks Drfelle.

drfelle says

kentm says

last time I checked the healthcare system in the states was a nightmare.

Is that what cable news and your Messiah told you? Quit watching MSNBC! They (MSNBC) are making your blood pressure and stress level go up.

from our own Patrick.net link: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&sid=ac_Ad5Car70M&ref=patrick.net and another comparison with "Socialized MEdicine: Circulatory disease deaths per 100,000: Canada: 219 United States: 265 Child maltreatment deaths per 100,000: Canada: 0.7 United States: 2.2 Digestive disease deaths per 100,000: Canada: 17.4 United States: 20.5 Infant mortality rate per 1,000 live births Canada: 5.08United States: 6.3 Intestinal diseases death rate Canada: 0.3% United States: 7.3%Proability of not reaching age 60: Canada: 9.5% United States: 12.8% Respiratory disease child death rate per 100,000 Canada: 0.62 United States: 40.43 Heart disease deaths per 100,000: Canada: 94.9 HIV deaths per million people: Canada: 47.423= United States: 48.141= =You get the point. If this is “socialized medicine,” sign me the hell up. (ref, sadly no) ...by any reasonable standards a nightmare. quit selective reading... drfelle says

Hillary wants Socialized Medicine in ‘93 claiming a “crisis”. She get’s shot down and the Health Care system survived. There hasn’t been talks of a Health Care “crisis” until Barry decideds he needs to establish his legacy and Socialize Medicine.

Again I say, there has to be another reason your taking this tack. It really has nothing to do with the facts and you're clearly hostile to "Barry". Or lets take this tack instead: Instead of attacking "Socialized" Healthcare & "Barry", tell me what it is you love so much about the current system...

That I don't have the government choosing which procedures, devices and drugs should be covered by my insurance company (or the government insurance plan). I like the fact it is driven by the free market and if a plan does not stack up, my company can choose to shop elsewhere for a more comprehensive plan. I don't like the 5000 things that are broken with the current system though. At some point things like QALYs need to be used to keep costs in check though ... it really is a matter of time. I just want everything for less (the California mentality)!

People with a "private medicine=PARADISE" mentality clearly haven't dealt with HMO in much depth. Many companies have a limited number of equally sucky choices. When you get right down to it the private companies want PROFIT for least amount of work. Thus like my brother who had to pound on a lot of doors to get them to deal with hernia in any vaguely timely manner the care can be quite slow. They don't view the alien protruding from your belly as an urgent thing until it's eating other crewmembers, please let's patiently wait a few months just use your hand to hold your intestines m'kay? And what do you do about it? Next year you get to pick door #2 and find they suck as bad. They also want to avoid doing a bunch of referrals to specialists and tests when possible, so like my niece who spent 7 YEARS being incorrectly diagnosed before finding out she had Crohn's disease, yeah that can suck pretty bad too. I'm not saying either system is any great shakes but I find the reflexive reaction "government medicine = bureacracy & negligent death galore" often coming from people who have relatively shallow experiences with any kind of medicine. It's usually people who don't like government to start with and are TERRIFIED it might go wrong on them in their hour of need. Despite the fact that they trust the government to rescue them floating in the ocean (Coast Guard) or to handle nuclear weapons on a daily basis. And they are contrasting with what? With a government program they have no personal experience with either? With make-believe comparison to DMV? I dunno. This issue is so pre-loaded with unexamined gut reactions it's impossible to debate like grownups.