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y current view (changes from time to time) is that a slow drop in home values will be offset by inflation and higher mortgage rates to the point where buying in the near future if you can get a deal may be a better option than waiting until 2012.Any given day I would prefer higher interest rate + smaller principal than lower interest rate + bigger principal. Because in later case, the risk is much lower - especially in this volatile time.
camping saysI agree smaller principal + higher rate is much preferred. But you may not get that. With a slow drop you may only get slightly lower principal and much higher rate. My concern: $700k house now w/ 5.5% rate versus 2012, $650k w/ 8% rate.y current view (changes from time to time) is that a slow drop in home values will be offset by inflation and higher mortgage rates to the point where buying in the near future if you can get a deal may be a better option than waiting until 2012.Any given day I would prefer higher interest rate + smaller principal than lower interest rate + bigger principal. Because in later case, the risk is much lower - especially in this volatile time.
My concern: $700k house now w/ 5.5% rate versus 2012, $650k w/ 8% rate.The above statement defies the long term trend of housing market. When interest rate goes up, home value adjusts accordingly. The whole issue boils down to affordability - how much mortgage people can pay per month.
camping saysNot true: http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/My concern: $700k house now w/ 5.5% rate versus 2012, $650k w/ 8% rate.The above statement defies the long term trend of housing market. When interest rate goes up, home value adjusts accordingly. The whole issue boils down to affordability - how much mortgage people can pay per month.
If they don’t have the means to unload foreclosures, then how does the market have too many foreclosures? They got there somehow.LOL! There could many many many reasons for too many foreclosures. Let me try to think one of them - they are not selling? ;) In redfin I can show property where bank is reducing price $25K every month for last six months. camping says
If they are staggering foreclosures, then they are doing it to keep inventory lower (avoid competing with themselves) to avoid depressing home values.Effect of staggering is lower inventory than it is supposed to be. But basic purpose of staggering is to avoid having similar properties from bank in same neighborhood (not lowering the inventory). camping says
Similarly, if they know rapid inventory will depress home values, how can you say they are not doing it to keep inventory lower?It boils down to what they want to do with foreclosed home. From bank's point of view, a foreclosed home is trapped money which they cannot invest anywhere else (lost opportunity). Time goes by, they lose the opportunities to do so. In addition, the foreclosed inventory is not owned by one bank that they can control the whole market. There is always multiple banks competing with each other. So there is always a rat race - a typical behavior of market.
Not true: http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/How exactly the above chart draws relation between interest rate and home value? Yes, interest rate factors into inflation, but not always. You should compare above chart with interest rate chart. Couple of things to note - Sometimes home value peaked (in early 80s and late 80s) while interest rate started climbing up. My conclusion is that it is the similar perception, as you are saying now ("buy it before interest rate goes up"), that drove the price up, only to fall farther down (and fall was spectacular in late 80s SF bay area). - Although sometime interest rate was lower (especially mid 90s), home value did not increase accordingly. My guess is that it is related to median income.
Maybe the President of ZipRealty has ulterior motives for saying this, but if it is true, it seems to contradict your points.Well, I never doubted about ulterior motives of people from real estate industry. :) And I can't count enough how many times I disagreed with them.
Yes, and median income is generally related to inflation.Again, not all the time. In last 10 years median income did not increase (in real term or actual dollar value), although 2005-2008 inflation was pretty high. Same argument goes for early 80s. median income chart Inflation charts Because there are other factors like GDP. In addition, different demographics have different curves - depending on local job growth (e.g hitech job growth in bay area in last 90s).
I thought we were talking about long term trends; now you’re picking very short periods to compare.Hmmmm, so I am assuming the decision whether to buy home now or in 2012 (different is only three years) is got to be based on 30 year long term trend. I would recommend you to look at all the small/large bumps in interest rate chart and check how they affect home value.
camping saysI think you should do the same. Historically, when mortgage rates were high, home values went up with the exception of the past few years. I would imagine you agree house prices generally track inflation. Interest rates are higher with higher inflation (generally). Therefore, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are high, and house prices go up.I thought we were talking about long term trends; now you’re picking very short periods to compare.Hmmmm, so I am assuming the decision whether to buy home now or in 2012 (different is only three years) is got to be based on 30 year long term trend. I would recommend you to look at all the small/large bumps in interest rate chart and check how they affect home value.
I think you should do the same. Historically, when mortgage rates were high, home values went up with the exception of the past few years. I would imagine you agree house prices generally track inflation. Interest rates are higher with higher inflation (generally). Therefore, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are high, and house prices go up.LOL! I don't know how to answer this one. When mortgage rates were high, home value went up - that's a news to me. Past few years mortgage rates were high? I thought the whole housing bubble was created by combination of lower interest rate and ninja loans.
camping saysYou can answer it by looking at the charts. Yes, the past 8 years were an exception partially based on easy credit. What were mortgage rates like in the early 80's? What does the chart show for home prices? http://mysite.verizon.net/vzeqrguz/housingbubble/I think you should do the same. Historically, when mortgage rates were high, home values went up with the exception of the past few years. I would imagine you agree house prices generally track inflation. Interest rates are higher with higher inflation (generally). Therefore, when inflation is high, mortgage rates are high, and house prices go up.LOL! I don’t know how to answer this one. When mortgage rates were high, home value went up - that’s a news to me. Past few years mortgage rates were high? I thought the whole housing bubble was created by combination of lower interest rate and ninja loans.
What were mortgage rates like in the early 80’s? What does the chart show for home prices?If I am reading the chart correctly inflation adjusted home price dropped between 1980-1984 (from $150K to $130K). As I have explained already the price went up when interest rate started increasing (because very same psychology "buy before interest rate goes up farther"), but eventually price fell.
Where do you have your money to keep up with high inflation and liquid enough for you to buy a house when you are ready?Isn't it the very same slogan "don't get price out forever" Realtors keep saying all the time? If inflation goes up and income does not keep up in real value accordingly, home value is destined to drop in real value anyway. The whole thing boils down to affordability. If people don't have enough money to buy home in inflationary environment, home value will drop. Let me ask you a very simple question: do you think household income is going to keep up with inflation in next few years?
Tell you what. Why don’t you or Kevin or anyone (except Nixon-troll, who I am ignoring), explain what socialized medicine is, and then explain why what Ten Pound Bass is proposing (not Obama’s plan - TPBs plan) is NOT socialized medicine. And do so without irrelevant emotion.TPB's "plan" seems to be a semi-coherent rant, so I don't know what that is. If he's proposing a socialistic plan, that's fine, but that's not what anyone who matters is proposing, and is irrelevant to the discussion. I don't even know where the "communist" talk is coming from either, it sounded like more insane ranting from a bunch of people who have no idea what the fuck they're talking about.
Guy Rundle writes: Barely drawing breath after his ground-breaking Cairo speech, Barack Obama is charging into what will be one of the biggest stoushes in American politics, his plan to reform the hopeless US health system. Obama launched his campaign in a speech in Wisconsin, urging people who supported him to get behind the plan and lobby their Congress members, because “this may be our one chance to get health care reform through.†It would be difficult to over-estimate the risks associated with trying to make even the most basic changes to US health-care. It was after all the failure of Hillary Clinton’s complex plan in 1993 that did more than anything to hole the Clinton Presidency below the waterline, at least as far as being a liberal regime went. Clinton’s plan wasn’t even the dreaded “single-payer†system, the term the US Right uses as some sort of North-Korean image for what Australians would know of as Medicare — baseline state-run universal coverage supplemented by private options. Instead it was an attempt to continue to run health insurance through private providers, while explicitly mandating how much they would charge, how much they would pay out, limiting their ability to exclude people with pre-existing conditions, and so on. It was a scheme designed to please no-one — Big Health were always going to be against it, and the liberal-left wouldn’t get behind it because they were still holding out for a single-payer system, which would not — as would have the Clinton plan — flood rivers of gold into the insurance companies for stuff that could be done at knock-down prices by the state. Since then, the organized left have been pretty much beaten down in Congress, and health care in the US has become much worse. This has given Obama a great political opportunity to get real reform through — but only at the price of proposing a scheme so unthreatening to Big Health, that it will see the wisdom of acquiescing to it. Why did American health get so much worse than it was at the time of the Clinton plan, when it was already pretty dead? Deregulation between 2000-2006 was one factor — a release of the (fairly-worn) brakes that were on the insurers in terms of denying continuing care to the chronically ill, excluding pre-existing illnesses and aggressively using the bankruptcy laws to recover costs. Another has been the open-ended nature of private medical care — as new techniques and tests are introduced year-on-year, open-ended health plans are faced with spiralling costs, created by the increasing demands of patients, and the desire of GPs to bill for endless additional (and often unnecessary) services. With no qualitative and triage-based control of health-care spending, the more consumerist options will crowd out necessity. The ideal health insurance client is a member of the “worried wellâ€, paying top-hole premiums for routine services, the lions’ share of the service fees going to the insurers. The worst client is the one for whom any rational health system should be designed — the chronically ill, the suddenly desperately ill, the seriously injured etc, and health insurers spend most of their energy throwing these people off their lists. The coup de grace has been the sharp rise in unemployment in the US, which has deprived many people of their employer-based health insurance–– the auto manufacturers bail-out deal alone cuts by 50% the health care available to up to a million former car workers and their families, just as many of them are ageing. The core of Obama’s plan is what’s known as a National Health Insurance Exchange, which is a sneaky way of offering public health insurance to the 45 million Americans who don’t have any insurance whatsoever (and aren’t eligible for the below-poverty-line Medicare scheme) — and simultaneously providing subsidised matching fixed-prices schemes offered by private providers, so that no-one can scream socialism. Surrounding this are various measures such as $10 billion in grants to get nationwide electronic record-keeping up and running — US hospitals are the last places in the developed word where the faxes run hot day and night with paper records being transferred — and some real battles, such as prohibiting the exclusion of pre-existing conditions. The advantages of the scheme are all political — people are so angry with health insurers (average premiums have doubled in the last six years), terrified of bankruptcy (half of the million bankruptcies a year in the US are due to medical costs), and worried for their children’s health, that Congress members who simply roll over for their Big Health campaign donors will find themselves the target of grassroots attack in upcoming party primaries for the 2010 elections. The disadvantage is that it’s a monstrously expensive way to achieve what single-payer cover does for half the cost, and twice the result — provide universal optimum health. But if Obama can get this, and if the 2010 Senate vote gives an enhanced Democratic majority, then there is a bridgehead from which non-pauper public health cover can be expanded, thus denying the Right the chance to make a huge fight over it, and gradually converting the American people to the idea that public health provision is not socialism. And also, if it succeeds, proving once again that the road of recent American political history is littered with the bones of those who underestimated Barack Hussein Obama. If it fails? We may find out — health insurers here are starting to make noises about unaffordable Medicare and transitioning to a US health system. So remember to choose which leg you’d like to save if they both get infected, because your plan may not cover both.
WillyWanker says--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Some Guy Joined: January 10th, 2008 Posts: 4 Comments: 207 July 22nd, 2009 at 10:48 am | top | quote | email this It’s just tearing you guys up that a BLACK MAN became president, isn’t it? --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- Excuse me, but it was YOU who made the proclamation that some here could not stand having an 'black man' for president. I just corrected your mistake. YOU brought up the race card. Because you can't defend your own positions you feel a need to call anyone who disagrees with you a racist. Just like your messiah in the White House, you can't help yourself but embrace 'race issues' to distort an argument. Hussein is having a tough time with his ObamaCare so he sticks his snout into a police issue and calls police officers 'stupid' and then he attempts to backtrack when he sees that the words he chose may have carried more weight than he had originally intended. 0bama needs to start 'calibrating' his words better. LOL 0bama's not afraid of starting race riots as longs as the country is distracted from the issues at hand. And you are forced to call everyone who disagrees with you a racist because you can't find other words to defend yourself. Good luck with that, asshole.The fact that his mother was white is something you just can’t handle. BitterMuch?Let’s see: Number of times you’ve brought it up: 3 Number of times I’ve brought it up: 0 Yeah, *I’m* the one who can’t handle it. Suuure…..
camping saysPlus, the past 8 years were somewhat of an oddity with free credit that caused inflation without the need for wage increases.Yes, and median income is generally related to inflation.Again, not all the time. In last 10 years median income did not increase (in real term or actual dollar value), although 2005-2008 inflation was pretty high. Same argument goes for early 80s. median income chart Inflation charts Because there are other factors like GDP. In addition, different demographics have different curves - depending on local job growth (e.g hitech job growth in bay area in last 90s).
Some Guy saysWithin 30 years there will be more retired people than working people. Retired people need substantially more health care than working people. Health insurers won't cover these people. Union funds are virtually dead. That leaves us with two options: 1. Medicare 2. Let everyone die in the street Since the vast majority of us aren't a bunch of whackjobs, we're looking for ways to save #1. The only way that is going to happen is to lower overall costs of medical care. That is the entire root of the health care discussion, but you're too blind to even realize it. What is your solution to the coming millions upon millions of people (which you will be amongst) that will have no health care options other than government-provided medicare? "Be Responsible", your favorite mantra, isn't going to work here. What is an elderly person supposed to do to "Be Responsible"? Lets say that they managed to save 20-30% of everything that they were earning, and now they have a million or two in the bank. How many hip replacements and cancer treatments is that going to pay for? Bitching is not going to do a god damned thing for anyone. It is absolutely imperative that costs come down. We can not afford to continue to have health care costs growing at twice the rate of inflation.How would YOU solve the healthcare crisis?Another Lesson: There is no healthcare crisis! But there is an Entitlement Crisis.
Just pasting this in here in its entirety, from crikey.com - non-US take on the political situation:"gradually converting the American people to the idea that public health provision is not socialism."... This is the most eye opening line of the article. It is amazing how 10 % of the americans with too much money got 90 % of the americans to believe that somehow socialism is a bad idea. This is the power of the propaganda. The 10 % who own media, corporate and political system can simply make everyone else agree to their agenda. Socialism or capitalism they are both bad if taken to extremes. If we take some good things from both that will be the best system. Of course this kind of reality has no room in the agenda of the elite. Why should they have to go to govt run medical system when they can actually afford the private system anyways. How can an average american be so stupid as to run away from a public health care system which will be always available to them. Is it only because some people have spread propaganda that somehow socialism is such a bad thing.... Oh yeah it is okay to save banks though because in this case it was the bad karma of the elite itself....so now socialism in disguise is fine.... Really shameful state of affairs in this country....Guy Rundle writes: The disadvantage is that it’s a monstrously expensive way to achieve what single-payer cover does for half the cost, and twice the result — provide universal optimum health. But if Obama can get this, and if the 2010 Senate vote gives an enhanced Democratic majority, then there is a bridgehead from which non-pauper public health cover can be expanded, thus denying the Right the chance to make a huge fight over it, and gradually converting the American people to the idea that public health provision is not socialism.
Here is it over 16 years latter and both are still going, but during the tech boom and the RE boom could you imagine the money a public healthcare system would have or could have stored away in their coffers by now. Of course I’d be talking about a nonprofit or not for profit health care system, or a government ran system, where each working person was just taxed a small percent of their income. A tax amount one tenth of what insurance premiums run us now. We’d still be in great shape.Yea - if we had done something 16 years ago, we wouldn't be in the shape we're in now. And... if we do something now, we won't be bleeding so badly in the future. I agree it needs to be govt or non-profit run; however, the current non-profit model doesn't work so well. The predominant system in the intermountain west charges the same as private companies, spends a hell of a lot on commercials touting their excellence, and denies patient care at the same rate as other hospitals. Considering that they're the only hospital system in Utah and a chunk of Idaho, I'd rather see them pouring their $ into providing healthcare to those who can't afford it. Their contracted doctors don't see people who can't afford to pay, but they go on building huge new clinics & hospitals to spend their $ so that they can maintain their non-profit status. They also give huge bonuses to execs & employees if they're making too much money - instead of giving back to the patients. I've known several elderly people who received personal visits from a rep from the local hospital system after they were discharged, in an attempt to get the patient to leave a chunk of their estate to the hospital. The family found out on one of them and sat in the next room - they were appalled at the high pressure guilt tactics the guy used.
This might sound crazy, but I know “elderly†people. They have health care….crazy huh? Twenty years ago, this same healthcare scare tactic “crisis†was being peddled to 40 and 50 year olds; and guess what?? They’re now 60-70 yrs young, respectively, and they have healthcare.The elderly people all have health care through medicare + supplemental insurance that medicare co-insurers are REQUIRED, by FEDERAL LAW to cover. Take away medicare and what do you have? drfelle says
Says who? People are living longer thus they can plan longer and work longer. Are you saying people are “entitled†to retire without proper planning?I'm saying that no amount of "proper planning" can deal with health care costs growing this fast. Medicare can't afford this. We'll have to double (at minimum) the current medicare taxes within a decade, harming every working person for the benefit of the elderly. When you take money away from working people, you take money out of the overall economy and hurt everyone further. drfelle says
That is exactly what you guys are!Who the fuck are "you guys"? drfelle says
You libs don’t care about anyone else’s situation but your own.If that were true, I wouldn't give a shit about everyone else's health care, since I've got mine. What I care about is the overall well being of society as a whole. I care about preventing social unrest, and improving standards of living. I want the world to be a better place. drfelle says
Let’s look at the housing “crisis†for example. There is no sympathy for people that acquired a mortgage they can no longer afford. Bailout? Hell no!Hypocrite. What happened to "personal responsibility"? I suppose personal responsibility only applies in your case when dealing with something you've never had to be personally responsible for? drfelle says
The same goes for Healthcare. You want someone else to take up one of your expenses so you can spend that money on other “WANTSâ€. Quit hiding behind your “I’m a bleeding heart lib†stereotype and start admitting why you want healtcare socialized. It’s not because you’re looking out for the elderly, you’re looking our for #1!No, troll, I want health care reform because the costs are too high, and dumping all of this money into health care is taking money away from all the other areas that need it (essential things like education, food, and infrastructure). And, if you had any reading comprehension skills whatsoever, you'd notice that I don't support "socialized" health care at all. I support a system like the one in Switzerland, which is far, far removed from anything resembling "socialized" health care. Take off your tinfoil hat and you'll discover that the whole world isn't out to get you. Tenpoundbass says
Here is it over 16 years latter and both are still goingAnd both cost much more, just like was predicted. There is zero risk of these systems "failing". The risk is that they will consume an ever-growing percentage of the economy, harming everything else. You can always raise SS and medicare taxes, but every additional dollar you're spending on these programs is a dollar that you're taking away from other essential programs and out of the private sector.
The elderly people all have health care through medicare + supplemental insurance that medicare co-insurers are REQUIRED, by FEDERAL LAW to cover. Take away medicare and what do you have?I disagree with many things that Nixon's friend says, and I loathe to feed him. However, there is a bit of a misconception when it comes to Medicare: "Medicare Part A is provided to most Social Security recipients at no cost because they or their spouses paid Medicare taxes while they worked. It is possible to buy Medicare A; if the beneficiary or spouse never paid Medicare taxes or didn’t pay enough to be fully vested into the system, SSA will calculate the premium amount for a senior that will be withheld from his Social Security check every month. The amount varies according to a formula SSA uses, with the current (2009) maximum premium amount set at $443.00 per month." (source: Taking the Mystery out of Medicare, available on www.cmseldercare.com) ---------------------------- In other words, Medicare is available to most seniors, but if they didn't pay into the system they'll have to cough up a huge premium for Part A. The Part B premium, charged to all beneficiaries regardless of amounts they paid in, is currently about $100 per month (more for higher-income seniors). Please note these amounts increase by 10% per year for each year the senior was eligible for the insurance but refused it, unless they already had coverage that was equal to or exceeded the benefits Medicare offers. So far as supplements, there are 12 standardized supplements available to help pay the amounts that Medicare approves but doesn't pay. There are also Part C Advantage programs (aka Health Maintenence Organizations) that offer benefits to Medicare recipients. However, insurance companies aren't required to offer these programs and some of the premiums charged are so great that seniors can't afford them. Federal law regulates those companies that offer the supplements but there is no mandate that they offer the plans. And people are denied coverage for supplements on a regular basis. If they're too sick, an insurance company can (and does) deny insurance. But seniors can enroll in an HMO during open enrollment without the threat of being denied due to health issues.
Correction: They’re not given anything, they EARN it. And if Joe wants to EARN a larger share of the nation’s wealth, he needs to get off of his lazy arse and make it happen.
They earn it???????? HAAAAAAAAAAAHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAHHHHAAAAAAAAAAAAHAAHA Paris Hilton earned her millions? The fuckhead CEO of Aetna earned his 24 million dollar salary? Sorry douchebag, you sure are dumb. The elites of this country have suckers like you brainwashed. What exactly do you need to do to EARN 24 million dollars? (Besides tell cancer patients they don't qualify for treatment?) Is the CEO of some corporation millions of times smarter or harder working than you? No. It's called nepotism and ol boys networks. GET REAL DUMMY!!!!
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