patrick.net

Paralithodes says

Funny how that works… In nearly every thread initiated by Ray that I have visited (a small sample to be sure), elliemae is one of the early respondents, and most often initiates some type of lightly-worded personal attack. In this thread alone, elliemae baits Ray with off-topic, personal comments until she gets to the point in the exchange where can then accuse Ray of personal attacks. Perhaps Ray also responds to every thread that elliemae initiates in a similar manner, but if one only reviewed Ray’s threads, the question of who is really obsessed with whom gets quite muddied… Is Ray obsessed with elliemae? Is elliemae obsessed with Ray? Or is elliemae obsessed with elliemae? Or a little of all of them?

Thanks for your honesty as displayed in your post. I agree with most of it, however, trust me, I'm not obsessed with anyone. I think you'll see a typical pattern in which I don't respond until I've been hit on about 3 or 4 times by the one that seems "obsessed" with me.

Rayray and Elliemae sittin' in a tree. K-I-S-S-I-N-G. First comes love. Then comes marriage...

I feel like we are suddenly on a Grammar School playground.

I think ellie is beyond Grammar School, don't you? But then again .....

while (House Price > sane value)
{
wait ();
read forums on patrick;
enjoy your value
}

while (House Price > sane value)
{
wait ();
read forums on patrick;
enjoy your life
}

The Bay Area as we see now is different from what it was 10 years ago.
1.) Not many companies are going public.
2.) Even if companies go public, they don’t give shit load of stock options like they use to
So the likelihood of many people becoming rich to afford these houses is very less now. You can maintain these high prices only if this area continues to create enough rich people so that they keep on consuming these over valued assets.
And Don’t forget the most important factor- “Public Schools”, that is the only thing they differ in.
How different is mission san jose from warm springs or even mil pitas ?? Just different schools. More or less same kind of homes, Same kind of people live there. Now keep in mind Schools are going down, because the whole state is going down as you can see.

There can be other developments also, May be some enterprising person may want to develop a network of private schools which are really affordable and are better than public schools in Mission San Jose/Cupertino and completely decouple the Zip Code and the kind of education your kids receive.

A lot can happen- Bottom line an over priced entity always comes down to realize it’s true or sane value.

#include "Sanity.h"

Void Be_Patient{
Can_I_Afford_It -> Can_Anyone_else;
Wait();
}

Redfin has 63 SFH listings for 90487.

There are 40,000 GOOG and AAPL worker bees.

ahum.

When I was FOB in Cupertino in 2000, 90487 was too rich for my manager at Apple, who had purchased a $400K place in Morgan Hill and tried to commute the 101 and 85.

He's still at Apple, has his old manager's job, and I suspect he's no longer making that commute, if you get my drift.

Prices have risen in lockstep with the inverse of interest rates:

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1428-Knowlton-Dr-Sunnyvale-CA-94087/19623757_zpid/

Higher rates might push prices down, but as long as AAPL and GOOG are healthy and hiring, I don't see any major fall in this outer fortress area.

"For Sale: $979,000
Monthly payment:$3,862

Down payment:
% ($195,800)
30 Year Fixed:
4.27% $3,862 /mo
15 Year Fixed
3.81% $5,719 /mo
5/1 ARM:
3.24% $3,402 /mo

Include estimated taxes and insurance
Bull Crap if 215K is 1000 a month at least.

Property type: Single Family
Bedrooms: 3
Bathrooms: 2
Sqft: 1,512
Lot size: 7,775 sq ft / 0.18 acres
Year built: 1961

Sqft: 1,512 That's insane! If I was making money to afford that, I'd still not pay it out of principal.

Goto: Blue screen of death

If had stayed at Apple, I'd have around $5M worth of stock stashed by now.

And I was just a very ordinary lower-middle tier worker bee awarded a piddling 1000 options vesting over 4 years.

With 20% down, the nominal cost of ownership is $3300/mo.

That may seem high, but it's about what rents are (lower perhaps), and the important thing is that after 20 years the interest burden drops by half, cutting cost of ownership down to $2400/mo.

What will rents look like in 2030? If comparing 1990 to now is useful, they will be 2X what they are now.

I don't know if past inflation will occur in the next 20 years -- certainly the bond market is telling us no -- but one of the mistakes I made working at Apple was living too far away from the mothership. You get paid and promoted based on your contribution to the company, and living within easy commuting of the place basically means you can up your contribution quite significantly while maintaining the same quality of life.

Tru Dat!

APOCALYPSEFUCK says

Bottom line: DEAD MEAT. Anyone buying a house in the next 20 years is committing suicide.

But if I rent my house, then when the lease is up the landlord will evict me. Why? The world's suffered a melt down, and he wants my potatoes. And my water supply. But I can't buy land to grow my potatoes, because then I'm committing suicide.

I guess my only option is to wander off into the national forest and plant a defensible potato farm ala marijuana grow ops?

PPete says

I saw a promo for a survivalist program with a couple in the wild. In the promo the woman drank her husband’s urine. Do you think it will get that bad?

I wouldn't say that in all cases that a woman drinking her husband's urine is bad. Some people enjoy this type of activity in private.

Call Goldline now!!!

Tomatoes are pretty good, too; easy to grow; lots of vitamin C. Lay in some canning jars and a kettle.

Do you really think it will get better in three generations?

Yeah, i don't know about potatoes, i'd rather live on veggies....totally against my Irish background though....your forgot to mention buy guns and ammo too, right?

I looked up "survival store" on the interwebs and there were 4,920,000 results. I need a little time to go shopping. But I can tell you one thing fer shore, I'm out of tin foil.

What if they try to reach me when I'm driving to the dollar store to buy more?

Plus, since I'm a woman, I can change my mind (ray) as many times as I want.

Yes, basically the hiring class has been squeezing the American worker by paying 1985 wages for 2010 productivity. Labor's productivity has increased over the last 25 years, yet wages remain stagnant. Prices for staples have increased exponentially since 1985. Eventually there is a breaking point. Eventually workers cannot afford to work for 1985 wages if they expect to be able to house, clothe, feed, and bathe themselves and/or their family. Instead of increasing wages to attract good employees, the hiring class will continue to bid bottom dollar in an effort to extract more and more profit out of their employees' labor without having to reward their employees who create profit for the hiring class.

This is how you end up where we are headed: A 2 class system. Labor drops from the middle class and dives into the lower unemployed class joining them in poverty whether they work or not. The hiring class, the capitalists, the ones with all the capital, move farther ahead of the working and non-working poor. A giant gap gets wider as the process continues. And we thought slavery ended with the 13th Amendment.

Do you hear that giant sucking sound? It's the 21st century robber-barons sucking money away from the working class and the poor.

Do you hear that sound like a door being slammed? It's the 21st century robber-barons locking their hoards of wealth away from the rude masses from which they took the money.

Bread and circuses for all.

I was playing a game of Monopoly recently and the situation came up where I owned majority of the property, and had a good amount of cash. Near the end, when player #2 was broke from landing on all my monopolies (with houses), and was about to give up (walk away), I gave him all my money less $500. The results? All the money I gave him came back to me and more since I was able to keep him in the game longer. I was essentially using him to pass go, collect $200, and in turn, give it all to me. Once he is about to give up, repeat. He was not able to buy any houses for his properties since there were no more available from the bank. It infused alot more money into our little economy.

Slavery. But you all can call it helping him (bailing him out). The gap gets wider and wider.

Vain .... good illustration of what is happening today. Slavery to debt, employer and government (high taxation). The powers to be have most people exactly where they want them.

A good small engine repair shop, repairs every thing from push mowers, chain saws, ridding mowers, edgers, weed eaters, sharpen chains, sharpen cutting blades, construction equipment combustion engines such as those on a concrete mixer or a generator.

They are actually quite busy and stand to Mr. Employer a lot of money "Up to" 40K sounds very suspect. As that is about what I made in 86, when I was 18 working in the SER shop in the back of a NAPA, in North Florida.

Those Logging outfits, Landscapers and Contractors, wrote some good checks on equipment repairs. I did about 4 or 5 major repairs every day. I never got time to sharpen blades and chains, which is what I was supposed to do in the slow time.

Maybe if I go to Fort Knox I can finally get my grill.

Fort Knox allegedly has ~$200B worth of gold in it.

The SSTF has $2.5T worth of treasuries in it.

I know that the thieves know where the real money to be stolen is, no tons of Tungsten required, just the creation and maintenance of ~5M gullible idiots.

simchaland says

Yes, basically the hiring class has been squeezing the American worker by paying 1985 wages for 2010 productivity. Labor’s productivity has increased over the last 25 years, yet wages remain stagnant. Prices for staples have increased exponentially since 1985. Eventually there is a breaking point. Eventually workers cannot afford to work for 1985 wages if they expect to be able to house, clothe, feed, and bathe themselves and/or their family. Instead of increasing wages to attract good employees, the hiring class will continue to bid bottom dollar in an effort to extract more and more profit out of their employees’ labor without having to reward their employees who create profit for the hiring class.
This is how you end up where we are headed: A 2 class system. Labor drops from the middle class and dives into the lower unemployed class joining them in poverty whether they work or not. The hiring class, the capitalists, the ones with all the capital, move farther ahead of the working and non-working poor. A giant gap gets wider as the process continues. And we thought slavery ended with the 13th Amendment.
Do you hear that giant sucking sound? It’s the 21st century robber-barons sucking money away from the working class and the poor.
Do you hear that sound like a door being slammed? It’s the 21st century robber-barons locking their hoards of wealth away from the rude masses from which they took the money.
Bread and circuses for all.

Stop shopping at wal mart.

This is what I was wondering. Was the recent decline a sign that the housing credit was only delaying the inevitable decline? Or was it a small blip in the rise due to buyers being pulled forward out for a couple of months?

I think it's still too soon to tell and it will depend on the overall economy.

tatupu70 says

This is what I was wondering. Was the recent decline a sign that the housing credit was only delaying the inevitable decline? Or was it a small blip in the rise due to buyers being pulled forward out for a couple of months?
I think it’s still too soon to tell and it will depend on the overall economy.

You really don't know? Just read a few articles on the front page of this website, that should give you a hint.

They could also be cooking the books:

http://market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=165800

Compared to the July last year, pending home sales fell 19.1 percent.

Just sayin.

alpine says

Compared to the July last year, pending home sales fell 19.1 percent.

Just sayin.

Indeed.

Up 5.2% month-month relative to June, which was badly in the dumps because tax credit expired. It is most likely just a blip, and for that exact reason.

Even Lawrence Yun of NAR agrees:

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, cautioned that there would be a long recovery process. “Home sales will remain soft in the months ahead ..."

Isn't it strange to see Larry Yun be somewhat truthful for a change? But he's probably just telling some truth to argue for a new tax break.

woggs1 says

tatupu70 says

This is what I was wondering. Was the recent decline a sign that the housing credit was only delaying the inevitable decline? Or was it a small blip in the rise due to buyers being pulled forward out for a couple of months?
I think it’s still too soon to tell and it will depend on the overall economy.

You really don’t know? Just read a few articles on the front page of this website, that should give you a hint.

No--I don't. And neither do you. Or were you expecting July pending sales to be up 5%? (this is when you can shut up)

I don't think anyone in their right minds would sign up to purchase a home in May or Jun and that would be reflected in the home sales in June, July, August.

So it looks like pending in July is a little bit off the lows, this is just a small first step. August should be up slightly (2-5%?) as month to month vs. July as well (based on the morgage application survey indicator). It would be interesting to see how pending sales will look this fall the further we get away from tax credit environment.

Personally, my indicators are real estate agents and mortgage brokers which are frontline to determining what is happening in the market.

Isn’t it strange to see Larry Yun be somewhat truthful for a change?

I envy this guy. He must be making a million just by lying. Smart a$$.

"an industry group said"

Al Capone says there aint no Mafia.

so many ways to read the numbers,

how about 11.6% up in the west? or 12% drop from April thru July, not 27% in the west.

http://www.realtor.org/ro/research/4c0527579eaecee67187a6a85f5e6486/phs1007.pdf

tatupu70 says

woggs1 says

tatupu70 says

This is what I was wondering. Was the recent decline a sign that the housing credit was only delaying the inevitable decline? Or was it a small blip in the rise due to buyers being pulled forward out for a couple of months?

I think it’s still too soon to tell and it will depend on the overall economy.

You really don’t know? Just read a few articles on the front page of this website, that should give you a hint.

No–I don’t. And neither do you. Or were you expecting July pending sales to be up 5%? (this is when you can shut up)

You asked, I answered and you tell me to shut up. Too bad there is no ignore button on this forum :)

Did you take the red pill last night?

Liberals also double park. It's true, I've seen it. They also throw rocks at cats. Give me fascism any day.

Well, I saw one of them parking in a handicapped spot at the grocery store without hanging a placard from their mirror. I know it was a lib, 'cause they were driving a prius and carrying those reusable grocery bags.

Sons of bitches.