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RMB have plenty of room to gain in relation to the USD so it’s a safe play. Many believe 1 USD for 3-4 RMBS is parity. I would love to see this opp in SF.
The rate of interest for savings is so paltry vs. inflation and peer that the Chinese have no choice but to chase after stocks and homes.
So, for a Chinese person, Yuan deposits are so lousy that they have no choice but to invest elsewhere, but for me it's a "safe play"?
Hmmm. I don't buy it. Sure, the Renminbi is below what it would be if they weren't buying US treasuries, but there is no guarantee that will stop, and no guarantee the Chinese economy won't stumble badly, and most importantly, there are indications their banking system isn't sound (bad loans)
RMB have plenty of room to gain in relation to the USD so it’s a safe play. Many believe 1 USD for 3-4 RMBS is parity. I would love to see this opp in SF.
The rate of interest for savings is so paltry vs. inflation and peer that the Chinese have no choice but to chase after stocks and homes.
So, for a Chinese person, Yuan deposits are so lousy that they have no choice but to invest elsewhere, but for me it’s a “safe play�
Hmmm. I don’t buy it. Sure, the Renminbi is below what it would be if they weren’t buying US treasuries, but there is no guarantee that will stop, and no guarantee the Chinese economy won’t stumble badly, and most importantly, there are indications their banking system isn’t sound (bad loans)
When you are fully denominated in a currency (USD) that is controlled by a central bank that seeks to dilute the currency (USD) endlessly, any other currency backed by a country GDP of double-digit growth (China) seems like a great idea. Better than sitting in USD-based cash or money market funds. Volatile, manipulated (PPT and FSB) equity markets that defy fundamentals are not generally comforting unless you use technical analysis regularly, and swing trade only.
Chinese yuan is no longer pegged to USD, though the Chinese govt continues to keep them in synch. This will eventually end. When it does, the USD will likely be obliterated soon after that.
If you trust what you read in the financial media (and paid-for blogs) you are trusting the fox in the henhouse. Raw market data such as the COT report (large speculators) is far more dependable (long positions in USD currently outweigh puts, 2 to 1). For most, it's easier to pay attention to the mainstream financial media which tells you what they want you to hear (info specifically designed to help you transfer your wealth without you realizing it).
BTW, the Chinese govt has been telling its citizens to buy gold, instead of sitting in yuan. Not everyone everywhere has the same opportunity or same economic situation. You cannot apply one method to all people globally.
justme
2011 Jan 19, 3:28am
BTW, the Chinese govt has been telling its citizens to buy gold, instead of sitting in yuan.
That sounds fishy. Do you have a reference for that?
BTW, the Chinese govt has been telling its citizens to buy gold, instead of sitting in yuan.
That sounds fishy. Do you have a reference for that?
I've read it a few times from different sources, including from Chinese news sources. Found a quick one for you without spending time on this, using Google News...
"Chinese investors have also started to take an interest in gold, he said, where previously they were buying American bonds."
Finding a reference to Chinese govt telling citizens to buy gold was a little harder to run across. Did read it though. If you aren't checking who controls or owns the news source for everything you read, and researching their affiliations with commercial banks, thinktanks, the UN, etc. then not sure why this would matter.
When you are fully denominated in a currency (USD) that is controlled by a central bank that seeks to dilute the currency (USD) endlessly, any other currency backed by a country GDP of double-digit growth (China) seems like a great idea. Better than sitting in USD-based cash or money market funds. Volatile, manipulated (PPT and FSB) equity markets that defy fundamentals are not generally comforting unless you use technical analysis regularly, and swing trade only.
Chinese yuan is no longer pegged to USD, though the Chinese govt continues to keep them in synch.
I disagree. yuan/usd is allowed to trade in a narrow range, but is still tightly controlled by the Chinese central bank, which just prints new yuan to buy dollars when yuan gets too strong. China is far more guilty of seeking to dilute it's currency endlessly than the US. They're the ones with rampant inflation. The Fed is just trying (unsuccessfully) to rekindle private lending. Yeah, the Chinese growth story is great, but it's not clear to me that investing in their currency is a good way to ride it.
There are lots of stories about how the Chinese are buying gold. You find them from the same sources that advertise on Beck and Hannity.
You found similar stories 20-30 years ago with Japan in place of China.
Every time someone tells me how great the chinese economy is, I tell them that we should have the federal government take ownership of all of our largest industries, throw all environmental and workplace regulation out the window, eliminate the free press, bar foreign companies from competing domestically, and filter the internet.
Because, you know, that would be so much better than America today.
There are lots of stories about how the Chinese are buying gold. You find them from the same sources that advertise on Beck and Hannity.
You found similar stories 20-30 years ago with Japan in place of China.
Every time someone tells me how great the chinese economy is, I tell them that we should have the federal government take ownership of all of our largest industries, throw all environmental and workplace regulation out the window, eliminate the free press, bar foreign companies from competing domestically, and filter the internet.
Because, you know, that would be so much better than America today.
The news **sources** for the articles covering Chinese citizens buying gold have been varied. Please try not to confuse or manipulate people with blanket statements that seek to generalize. You seem interested in claiming that these stories do not exist. Look them up for yourself before jumping to the generalizations, please.
I do not disagree with most of the posts in response to my posts. The Chinese people are experiencing inflation, which is primarily why they are interested in gold. My point ultimately is that the yuan is a much more stable currency that the USD. The Chinese economy is tightly controlled, as is their currency.
You really think their central bank is anti-Chinese, in the same way our central bank is fulfilling, verbatim, the goals laid out in United Nations (i.e., World Bank) hard documents such as the "Agenda for the 21st Century"? The World Bank plan is clear regarding the need to reduce developed economies to achieve world financial stability (and purportedly, world peace -- hence the participation of high-profile "Club of Budapest" members).
Here's a site summarizing the goals of the World Bank. Everything written there is sourced in a bibliography. Most of the sources are UN documents that are publicly available, or memoirs of the visionaries behind the UN.
Find it at http://www.green-agenda.com (site managed by someone who performs land-use audits on behalf of the United Nations)
Once you understand the plot line, the pieces fit together nicely. The mainstream media and perhaps quite a few paid-for bloggers or blog commenters seem bent on ensuring no one understands the plot line (anyone who talks about it openly is automatically a "tinfoil hat conspiracy theorist"), despite that it's already well documented for anyone to read.
It's quite efficient to simply kill the plot line rather than allow open discussion of it, since people might get a little pissed once they figure out what's going on. If you are unable to follow my train of thought, it's because I no longer pretend the plot line does not exist.
tatupu70
2011 Jan 20, 1:09am
Once you understand the plot line, the pieces fit together nicely
What is the "plot line"? Help me understand. Please don't post links to other sites--just in your own words.
Find it at http://www.green-agenda.com
LOL. If find bizarre that those that think human caused climate change it a complete hoax are always of the opinion that the Chinese currency is more sound than the USD. The two have absolulely nothing to do with eachother, but from what I've seen the correlation is perfect.
A huge pool of impoverished workers only gets you so far because there will eventually be a labor movement.
Actually it's already happening, and the government is more or less on the workers side.
Find it at http://www.green-agenda.com
LOL. If find bizarre that those that think human caused climate change it a complete hoax are always of the opinion that the Chinese currency is more sound than the USD. The two have absolulely nothing to do with eachother, but from what I’ve seen the correlation is perfect.
You obviously can't digest sourced documentation. Your opinion sure seems important though.
Find it at http://www.green-agenda.com
LOL. If find bizarre that those that think human caused climate change it a complete hoax are always of the opinion that the Chinese currency is more sound than the USD. The two have absolulely nothing to do with eachother, but from what I’ve seen the correlation is perfect.
You obviously can’t digest sourced documentation. Your opinion sure seems important though.
When I read 10 minutes into the Agenda 21 it was pretty clear this was written by starry eyed idealists that have no power whatsoever.
I don't understand how you can fear of some authoritarian, anti-freedom government by invisible elites, and yet at same time think a communist government run by invisible elites has better answers to economic and monetary questions than the USA.
Once you understand the plot line, the pieces fit together nicely
What is the “plot line� Help me understand. Please don’t post links to other sites–just in your own words.
Perhaps you would love to see me write the plot summary and skip the supporting documentation, which is its soul? Thanks for the invitation to do so -- I decline.
You're cunning, like Bahomet in heat.
tatupu70
2011 Jan 21, 1:10am
Billy Jack saysOnce you understand the plot line, the pieces fit together nicely
What is the “plot line� Help me understand. Please don’t post links to other sites–just in your own words.
Perhaps you would love to see me write the plot summary and skip the supporting documentation, which is its soul? Thanks for the invitation to do so — I decline.
You’re cunning, like Bahomet in heat.
No--how about you summarize the plot and then include the links to supporting documentation. Or references to supporting documentation.
You understand how noone can believe you if you can't even explain your theory, right?
Crazy ranting is fun and all that, but the fact is that China's economy is not some capitalistic system that is comparable to the western world. The Chinese government is the largest corporation on the planet, by far. It is a conglomerate with several very large wholly owned subsidies.
You can't really make arguments about economics and what is going to happen while that fact remains, because traditional economics simply do not apply.
China figured out how to make socialism work, at least for a quarter of its population. The real wild card is what happens after another 10 years where the other 800 million people are still living in squalor? Most of these people were better off when they had superior land near fresh water sources to raise their crops on.
China didn't make socialism work. China is a mercantilist economy that showed the world just how long people are willing to accept substandard living and working conditions by allowing their standard of living to slowly rise. Every other capitalist revolution was accompanied by swift lifting of the masses out of poverty in a short amount of time. China has used mercantilism to try to stretch that process out over a 30 year period. It's going to backfire on them. Their actions have resulted in ridiculous imbalances in global trade and external debt obligations. China should have let their currency float freely over a decade ago. China's growth model is hopelessly dependent upon using a large trade surplus to make up for their governments irresponsibility & central planning. As soon as the trade surplus disappears, the unwinding of their export dependent economy will be ugly. Furthermore, the massive default on the debt obligations they hold from the rest of the world is going to be a kick in the nuts. This is the type of stuff wars are made of.
Every other capitalist revolution was accompanied by swift lifting of the masses out of poverty in a short amount of time.
What capitalist revolutions are you talking about? What 30 year period? China was a mess 30 years ago, totally destroyed by the cultural revolution. I would think that raising the standard of living as much as they have for almost billion people in only 30 years is a pretty good trick.
Every other capitalist revolution was accompanied by swift lifting of the masses out of poverty in a short amount of time.
What capitalist revolutions are you talking about? What 30 year period? China was a mess 30 years ago, totally destroyed by the cultural revolution. I would think that raising the standard of living as much as they have for almost billion people in only 30 years is a pretty good trick.
Not really. Those people were dying by the millions. In nearly every other case where the masses lifted themselves out of poverty through capitalism, it took a few years. China deliberately slowed the process to try to maintain a steady rate of growth rather than an fast rate of growth. It was a stupid move and it will hurt them in the long run.
Had China let their currency float in the 90s, they would easily have a higher standard of living than they do today and they wouldn't be vulnerable to an unwinding of an economy heavily reliant on exports. They wouldn't be vulnerable to the fallout of a default on debt obligations they own. They also wouldn't have the inflation problem they do today. In my opinion, they should have simply followed the traditional model for economic prosperity. Mercantilism has never ended well.
No–how about you summarize the plot and then include the links to supporting documentation. Or references to supporting documentation.
You understand how noone can believe you if you can’t even explain your theory, right?
For those of you who can see past the antics of the paid-for professional provocateur/disinformation agent I am engaging with, here are the sourced links again --
http://www.green-agenda.com
http://www.newswithviews.com/Veon/joanA.htm
http://www.crossroad.to/text/articles/la21_198.html
http://nikiraapana.blogspot.com/ (a blog worth bookmarking)
Sourced and very well documented, all of it. But when someone still wants to refute documents coming straight out of the United Nations, what does that make that person? Paid for, perhaps? This provocateur is aggressive in that he wants to lump all of this information in a mental package he wants you to throw away upon little or no examination, whatsoever. If people here are smart, this is the information they will be most interested in, above all else.
Your antics here tip people off to the fact that what I am stating here must be pretty important for you to continue denigrating it in the way that you have been doing.
China didn’t make socialism work.
Sure they did. The government owns all of the major industries, and they let private investors think that they have a say in some businesses:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_companies_of_China
Every single one of the top 10 are state owned.
China managed to accomplish what no other socialist economy accomplished in over 100 years of trying. Some countries have a single success in a single industry, but China has managed to make it work for all of their major industries.
They did this by fooling capitalists into thinking that they, too, were capitalists. The reality is that every dollar given to any of these companies, be it investment or purchase, is a dollar given to the chinese government.
Now, it's true that they used mercantilism (specifically, trade protectionism) as a way to accomplish their socialist agenda, but that doesn't change the fact that the end result is a successful socialist model.
justme
2011 Jan 23, 5:04pm
As soon as the trade surplus disappears, the unwinding of their export dependent economy will be ugly. Furthermore, the massive default on the debt obligations they hold from the rest of the world is going to be a kick in the nuts. This is the type of stuff wars are made of.
Or revolutions. It may happen again. Who knows.
In nearly every other case where the masses lifted themselves out of poverty through capitalism, it took a few years.
What are these other cases? How do they compare to China?
tatupu70
2011 Jan 23, 10:53pm
But when someone still wants to refute documents coming straight out of the United Nations, what does that make that person? Paid for, perhaps?
I'm not refuting anything. Because you haven't presented your case yet. All you are doing is posting links. For something this important, I would think you could take the time to write a couple of paragraphs explaining what is going on...
Read this interesting article...
Dec. 21 (Bloomberg) -- The Securities and Exchange Commission, as part of a broader probe of China-based companies listed on U.S. stock exchanges and their auditors, sanctioned a California audit firm for signing off on fraudulent financial statements made by a Chinese energy company.
Moore Stephens Wurth Frazer & Torbet LLP of Orange County is one of several firms that have fallen under the SEC’s scrutiny for signing the financial statements of China-based firms accessing U.S. capital markets through so-called reverse mergers. In a reverse merger, a closely held company acquires a publicly traded company and can then sell shares without an initial public offering.
FortWayne
2011 Mar 3, 1:44am
if they let yuan float you can make a really good return. but its a huge gamble.
American in Japan
2011 Mar 31, 12:07pm
More places to buy the yuan coming to the US I've heard. Has anyone seen it places where yuan accounts can be opened?
If I had a lot of money to preserve, I would buy Swiss Francs and/or a gold ETF based on physical gold. (ZKBGF)
If I have money I wish to invest to appreciate capital, I would buy stocks.
If I have money I wish to get income from, I would buy bonds.
If I were rich, I would have a house in Carmel, and I would visit China to have fun Have no doubt, the average person in China is a poor slob wondering how to achieve a decent life, in a game that is stacked against him.
I guess I wandered off the subject. I would in theory like to make currency trades, but I am too afraid and lazy to learn the ropes.
"China made socialism work", this is incorrect. There is actually NO social safety net in China. The Chinese government has decided that building infrastructure and growing the economy is preferable to spending gazillions on welfare, health programs, etc. Europe and Mexico are socialist, not China. Chinese are well aware there is no social safety net for them, it's every man for himself.
But when someone still wants to refute documents coming straight out of the United Nations, what does that make that person? Paid for, perhaps?
I’m not refuting anything. Because you haven’t presented your case yet. All you are doing is posting links. For something this important, I would think you could take the time to write a couple of paragraphs explaining what is going on…
I have to agree with Tatupu on this one. I find it a little bit frustrating that you seem to believe strongly in some position, but all you are willing to do is post some links and profess how incontrovertible your position is. I did go (start) to read your links, and after about 5 minutes I was still asking myself "what's is the position?" I'm trying not to dismiss it out of hand, but you aren't helping.
A good example to follow would be Troy on these forums. He holds some non-mainstream ideas, and is more than willing to produce sources and other references, but he also willingly (and intelligently) engages in dialogue (if one-sided and heavy-handed at times). This does two things, for me. One, it helps by distilling a position into an accessible and concise read...two, it demonstrates that the person pushing the position can actually think and is willing to discuss (and defend) their claimed position.
If you want to be taken seriously, you need to ante up.
-s
American in Japan
2011 May 17, 1:11pm
This story in about Hong Kong:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/soaring-yuan-deposits-in-hong-kong-2011-05-15
I would prefer to have Swiss Francs but I don't believe there is a problem having a bunch of Yuan if you have already lots of capital to preserve. I believe there is a Chinese bank in the USA somehwere and you can have Yuan on deposit there?
But, why let capital sit idle and not make either 1. interest 2. dividends 3. appreciate?
If I were very rich, I'd have a Swiss Franc account to preserve some of my wealth. The rest I would buy bonds and dividend paying stocks. For fun I'd buy a growth stock or two.
American in Japan
2011 Jun 22, 12:48am
Another link:
I think the yen and Asia currencies will hold or gain against the US dollar (not sayng much, though).
MisdemeanorRebel
2011 Jun 22, 3:07am
SHANGHAI (MarketWatch) -- China's central bank said Wednesday it will suspend its regular open market operation Thursday, in an apparent response to the tight liquidity conditions in the banking system.
The move came as China's interbank funding rate has risen sharply since Tuesday last week, when the People's Bank of China said it would raise banks' reserve requirement ratio by half a percentage point to address inflation concerns by locking up liquidity in the banking system. The increase, which took effect Monday, was the sixth such hike this year.
The interbank weighted average seven day repo, a benchmark gauge of short-term interbank funding costs, ended at 8.81% Wednesday, the highest rate since October 2007. It has risen 463 basis points in the past six sessions.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/pboc-to-suspend-market-operations-thursday-2011-06-22
Getting interesting!
justme
2011 Jun 22, 4:48am
Yes, I think this is a big story (China suspending bond offering). Here is more on that topic
"It is difficult for the central bank to find enough demand for its short-term bill offering amid the severe liquidity squeeze in the money market. If it persisted with the three-month bill offering tomorrow, the yield would jump again, adding pressure to the central bank's operating costs," said a Shanghai-based trader with a local bank."
(Side observation: Note how it appears from the above that in China the BOC central bank issues bonds, rather than having a Treasury Department do it. Or maybe it is that BOC is the only "primary dealer". These technicalities may be significant).
Anyhow, this cannot be good news for China. Is the Great Bubble about to burst?
Interesting times.
He sits on the board of directors of Xiniya Fashions, a Chinese retailer with 1,400 shops. He says Chinese consumers pay up to $25 for polo shirts at Xiniya (pronounced Zenya), well above the $15 the same shirts sell for in the U.S.
Even with rebates that Chinese manufacturers get for exporting, that $25 domestic price makes them less willing to accept the price cuts that used to be a standard part of their business, Mr. McGrath says: "They can make more money by selling it to the Chinese market."
MisdemeanorRebel
2011 Jun 22, 2:20pm
(Side observation: Note how it appears from the above that in China the BOC central bank issues bonds, rather than having a Treasury Department do it. Or maybe it is that BOC is the only “primary dealerâ€. These technicalities may be significant).
Anyhow, this cannot be good news for China. Is the Great Bubble about to burst?
Most interesting.
He sits on the board of directors of Xiniya Fashions, a Chinese retailer with 1,400 shops. He says Chinese consumers pay up to $25 for polo shirts at Xiniya (pronounced Zenya), well above the $15 the same shirts sell for in the U.S.
Interesting indeed. That's like Japanese consumer goods.
As exports falter, construction tapers off, and corruption grows. The face of China we don't get to see much of:
http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2011/jun/22/inside-china-508460494/
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2011/jun/16/china-riots-taizhou
http://www.tibetanreview.net/news.php?&id=9096
Clara
2011 Aug 9, 2:23pm
Allegedly, China government is a bunch of crooks who live by their lies. I will never trust my money with their government or their banks. Fucking 30 years ago, we want to kill them communists pricks, now we want to depend our financial futures on them, what the fuck?!
Never mind that China Govt is a bunch of crooks...can you tell the difference between real Yuan vs fake.
Sep 9, 2009 – Police have seized 684 million yuan of fake banknotes and ... $26m fake banknotes seized in China 3619 suspects arrested for fake notes ...
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It will be interesting to see if this currency is made more available in the US (from currency exchanges to foreign currency savings accounts).
http://blogs.forbes.com/robertlenzner/2011/01/12/you-can-now-buy-chinese-yuan-in-new-york/
http://consumerist.com/2011/01/you-can-now-open-a-chinese-bank-account-and-invest-directly-in-yuan.html
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/china-to-boost-yuan-to-fight-inflation-rhodes-2011-04-12
Has anyone had any experiences trying to buy this currency in the US?
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