patrick.net

Interesting that people would bother attacking an insurance policy mentality. What skin off your ass is it, anyway? What could possibly be your stake in someone else's desire to protect against risk, of any kind? Or for any reason?

Perhaps it's merely the cathartic joy of pretending to be superior to another human being. Just don't forget that in doing so, your untreated childhood traumas begin to show.

Packet radio for shortwave already exists, as do a few other alternatives...
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Packet_radio

All of which tend to be quite slow.

Then there's Internet 2, which no one seems to know about despite that several local-level politicians in major metro areas are campaigning on this. In a nutshell, Internet 2 is a replica of China's method of Internet control, except it's for the US.

Another clever comment. How in the world do you come up with these?

Sanskrit? Oh my. So cosmopolitan.

i disagree

The Words Or come from Old German and mean to copulate.

Realtor is Huge Fucker and
Banker is prohibited Fucker or Ass Fucker.

Well, you learn somthing new every day.

And to think that just yesterday I thought they both had the same meaning as santorum.

But how are realtors and potatoes related?

bubblesitter says

But how are realtors and potatoes related?

In a just world their professional vocabulary would center on "Do you want fries with that?"

yummy!

Katy Perry says

yummy!

You mean realtors?

Troy says

bubblesitter says

But how are realtors and potatoes related?

In a just world their professional vocabulary would center on “Do you want fries with that?”

LOL.

I am betting by 2012 -13 the rents will be around 750 again out there, (Sorry Rentalinvestor) I am sure you dont agree, and I feel strong about that. Prices should be 100,000-135,000 once again in that same time frame. Double dip is going to hit hard not this is of course pure speculation, and stranger things have happened.

A bit of "homesteading grants" is not a bad idea, especially in Detroit.

But I sure hope they have the sense to attach some strict rules that officers must live in their homesteads for X>5 years, can not flip them, cannot work on the house while they are supposed to be at the firehouse, and so on. Maybe a profit-sharing plan?

Just visit Detroit once and you'll see why it's still no bargain at $1,000. I would not live there even for free.

It's very dangerous, there are few jobs, lots of racial tension, high property taxes, corrupt city government, and poor services. Oh, and a brutal winter.

http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/08/murder-city-danger-forbeslife-cx_de_1108murder_slide_2.html

Lately Detroit has only half as many murders per year compared to when I lived in Michigan. Michigan. But it's still the WORST in the United States.

Chicago has the same winter, but it's an infinitely nicer place to live. Safer, cleaner, lots to do on the north side at least.

They should just demolish the houses already. NOBODY wants them.

shrekgrinch says

Yeah, that is why I bumped up the proposed grant and let anyone qualify. You’d be surprised by how many people would take up the offer. I am sure you wouldn’t take a job at Wal-Mart either, but over 20,000 people applied at the Super Wal-Mart in Oakland right before it opened.

On Walmart's wages, a $1,000 house would be affordable. I know people who work at Walmart that qualify for food stamps.

i would extend the offer to any military veteran, who is willing to live in the house for 2 years.

Just visit Detroit once and you’ll see why it’s still no bargain at $1,000. I would not live there even for free.
It’s very dangerous, there are few jobs, lots of racial tension, high property taxes, corrupt city government, and poor services. Oh, and a brutal winter.
http://www.forbes.com/2007/11/08/murder-city-danger-forbeslife-cx_de_1108murder_slide_2.html
Lately Detroit has only half as many murders per year compared to when I lived in Michigan. Michigan. But it’s still the WORST in the United States.
Chicago has the same winter, but it’s an infinitely nicer place to live. Safer, cleaner, lots to do on the north side at least.

I disagree with you Patrick, if just a little. Chicago seems nicer, but the groups of angy black youths who routinely go "wilding" on the north side of Chicago is an ever growing problem. Even if the media doesn't cover it.

The schools are gladiator academies, and a precusor to Cook County Jail, just in time to get a real penetentiary-style education.

Racial tension? Please Chicago takes the cake, as whites quickly walk past ignoring blacks, hoping not to get raped, mugged or robbed. And let's not foget to throw in the those who march and protest for every right not granted as citizens of Mexico.

Corruption is something that Chicago excels at, as Mayor Daley has bankrupted the city through no-bid contracts, capital (contractor-welfare) improvement projects, fake minority hiring (as related by the Federal courts), nepotism; his son makes 74k as his Admin assistant for a job he doesn't show for, etc., etc.

Chicago has the worst water system in the nation, which contrasts with the 200% increase in water bills.

Gas and light utitilies have gone up over 150% in the past 5 years.

Lets not talk about the 100% property tax increases, as well as undermanned police force that is still budget for full strength put not fully staffed, thus returning the unused monies to Daley's pockets through the City's general fund.

The 50 thieves masquerading as alderman, are corrupt rubber stampers of Daley's agenda. I guess their million dollar budget and 90k salaries each, help make their spineless actions easier.

We even had an alderman, Sharon Dixon, arrested for DUI and refusing to take a breathalyzer. She had obvious signs of intoxication, and became combatitive. That did not stop a corrupt judge for finding that the officers had no probable cause, opening them up for her civil suit. What a joke.
You are right though. Chicago is cleaner. The bums are allowed to sleep and congregate in any police station, library, and city building, with the exception of City Hall.

All of this only makes my strategic default and subsequent 16-month squat even sweeter.

romeotybalt says

Chicago seems nicer, but the groups of angy black youths who routinely go “wilding” on the north side of Chicago is an ever growing problem. Even if the media doesn’t cover it.

Is the media in on it? Why isn't this out there - or have we become desensitized to the point that we're used to it and want something more shocking. I mean like Detroit becoming an industrialized ghost town.

Just curious. I'm spoiled, live in a rural area with so little crime that when someone gets a ticket we're all shocked.

HousingWatcher says

They should just demolish the houses already. NOBODY wants them.

Are you being serious? I'm sure they could sell somewhere in the middle of what they were and the 1,000 they are asking now.

I bet for every empty house in Detroit, somewhere there's somebody just busted up and besides them selves that they lost that house.

Its kind of like cash for clunkers idea. Basically the way to raise real estate prices is to create artificial demand for it. They'll probably create a local bubble out there if they let it get out of control (which fickle/corrupt government always does).

been to Detroit 3 times, got asked for money 3 times. The KFC in some places has iron bars on the window and the cashier area is like a ticket booth in the theater. Worse than Oakland? U bet.

Baltimore sold a bunch of pretty bad houses that they acquired for a section of I270 that was never built for $1.00 each in the 70's with stipulations that you had to live there and fix it up. Loans were available from the city for fix up. Baltimore at the time wasn't any better than Detroit is today. I used to run a concession at the Baltimore street fair every year in the early 70's (college job). We were armed and working behind very heavy chicken wire. These are really nice places now, so a program like this can work if set up properly.

Chicago high rise projects are getting torn down so the government created leeches are moving to their new free digs out in the south suburbs where the murder rate has skyrocketed! All my college roommates used to live in the upper middle class suburb of South Holland. It's now a freaking ghetto!!!

moonmac says

Chicago high rise projects are getting torn down so the government created leeches are moving to their new free digs out in the south suburbs where the murder rate has skyrocketed! All my college roommates used to live in the upper middle class suburb of South Holland. It’s now a freaking ghetto!!!

When was South Holland an upper middle class suburb? 1940?

"Are you being serious? I’m sure they could sell somewhere in the middle of what they were and the 1,000 they are asking now."

No they can't. Who wants a house in a city with high crime and absolutely no jobs? Countless hosues in Detroit are in horrible condition and make no economical sense to renovate. They have been stipped down to the studs or even have fire damage from arson. These houses are unsellable.

bob2356 says

Baltimore sold a bunch of pretty bad houses that they acquired for a section of I270 that was never built for $1.00 each in the 70’s with stipulations that you had to live there and fix it up. Loans were available from the city for fix up. Baltimore at the time wasn’t any better than Detroit is today. I used to run a concession at the Baltimore street fair every year in the early 70’s (college job). We were armed and working behind very heavy chicken wire. These are really nice places now, so a program like this can work if set up properly.

Yes, but $1000 for a house the parts of Detrioit where these houses are might be above market.

elliemae says

On Walmart’s wages, a $1,000 house would be affordable. I know people who work at Walmart that qualify for food stamps.

Don't forget that the property taxes are probably several times more than the house. And then there's the daily cost of ammo for defense.

patb says

i would extend the offer to any military veteran, who is willing to live in the house for 2 years.

Good idea. Military training is probably essential for anyone who moves in. And Marines in particular tend to be a good influence in bad neighborhoods, IMHO. Everything would be in ship shape, at least at their house.

romeotybalt says

I disagree with you Patrick, if just a little. Chicago seems nicer, but the groups of angy black youths who routinely go “wilding” on the north side of Chicago is an ever growing problem. Even if the media doesn’t cover it.

Yes, Chicago has major problems, but compared to Detroit it's pretty safe and cushy. Which just shows you how bad Detroit is.

romeotybalt says

Corruption is something that Chicago excels at, as Mayor Daley has bankrupted the city

Old Mayor Daley is buried just two blocks from where I lived ages 0 to 9, in the same Irish cemetery as my paternal grandparents, aunts, uncles (Holy Sepulchre Cemetery). And my other grandfather worked for Daley's organization, in the Daley building downtown. One of my earliest memories is visiting him there. It was the first time I was in a tall building and kind of magical. Anyway, I know the Daleys are crooks but I can't hate them.

Mr.Fantastic says

Detroit, Oakland, and Camden are all cities that should be paying people to live in vacant houses within their borders. Preferably military men with basic combat training.

Where is apocalypse when his insight in this would be so good.

To comment on the original post though, I'm just not sure whats with this political fetish for police and firefighters, what the hell makes them so special compared to everyone else.

Mr.Fantastic says

Would you buy a $1,000 house in the middle of Kabul, Afghanistan or Mosul, Iraq? These cities are probably more safe than Detroit.

Despite most Americans believe, US is NOT a safe country.
This is why the houses in safe areas are selling for 700k+ easily.

Ammo and silver for me. Those bomb shelters made in the 60's are looking mighty cozy! I used to laugh when I thought of my father looking at homes with the hidden bomb shelter. Maybe he aint so dumb after all.

At this point, it is very difficult to make generalizations about the entire housing market. Some cities are seeing significant price drops, others are not. A few places are even seeing slight increases in prices.

Inflation will be the big difference maker. If oil goes to $200 things will be very different than if it remains around $100.

Who knows ?

http://www.zillow.com/local-info/#metric=mt%3D34%26dt%3D1%26tp%3D5%26rt%3D14%26r%3D102001%252C394913%252C394806%252C394463%26el%3D0

This time two years ago there were more incentives on the horizon. The question it seems to me is how highly motivated the sellers and buyers are. The winner will be the less motivated one, right ? Speaking as a potential buyer, I can tell you it's not just price that is important its the selection, the lack of choices that holds me back. If more of the people who are waiting to sell finally put what they have on the market, then I am more likely to buy. But I guess what i am really wanting is nicer homes to come to my price point, which is no different than waiting for further reductions.

http://piggington.com/shambling_towards_affordability_yearend_2010_edition

I've argued a million times that price-based ratios are much more important than payment-based ratios in determining whether housing is fairly valued on a sustainable basis.

price-to-income and price-to-rent are still high.

if you go to a car dealership, the used car salesman always asks what payment you can afford and will never tell you the out-the-door price. that's because through creative financing, a ridiculously priced car can be made to have affordable payments using various strategies (for RE these would be: option arms, i/o loans, increase the term, low rates, etc). housing is the same, you can make over priced houses almost affordable through "payment magic".

only the financially ignorant fall for this at a used car dealership.
i also claim, it's these same people that are happy to overpay for their house because the payments are so affordable.

low rates promote over borrowing and over leveraging.
i can't wait for interest rates to go to 9% or higher (probably won't see it for 10 years or more), then this nonsense with creative financing would be greatly reduced.
at 10% interest most won't put 0% down, they'll put a decent down payment and actually try to pay the mortgage off.

i'm beginning to think buying in a low rate environment, regardless of price, is a mistake.

I'm not sure if this graph is right or just made up.

I have never seen an area in LA you can find housing near 4% of income. Here it's often close to 70%~80% for quite many.

Unless I know the data what exactly they are sticking into the graph, its just a pretty ugly picture with no real information. I can manipulate graphs all day long with data, it's pretty easy to do that.

San Diego is in the same pot as Miami and Vegas. They received lots of media attention.

I see no fault with Piggintons analysis. But do take some time to read his narrative and conclusion.

But why any particular number? The thing with metals is that every price seems about as reasonable as every other price.

The only connections to reality that I've heard are the cost of getting an ounce out of the ground, and the cost of replacing industrial silver with some other metal.

LOL

That's a dangerous game though. Bubbles tend to reverse just as suddenly as they rose, and it's really hard to know exactly when.

If you’re predicting a further crash in the real estate market, how do you reconcile that with the reality that real estate might be more affordable now than at any time during the last 34 years?

Well, for one, the annual per capita income of me, Bill Gates, and Warren Buffett is ~$5B, but that's not going to help me pay the rent.

2ndly, unemployment is 10% in SD:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706URN

SD has lost 100,000 jobs:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706NAN and it's unclear if they're ever going to get those jobs back.

Fraud was the major tractor of the economy 2003-2007, and the jobs that were supported by fraud are gone now.

Affordability has been helped by very low interest rates, but it's unclear whether that trend will continue (a la Japan) or reverse (as it arguably has now).

Nominal prices:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SDXRNSA

are still high compared to 2000, even though there are less well-paying jobs now than in 2000:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706PBSVN
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706MFGN
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706INFON
http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706FIREN

The two bright spots are government sectors: health, education, and defense.

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706EDUHN

Health & education are immense bubbles given the $20B+ state deficit and the overall medicare situation. If medicare blows up this decade, retirement communities like SD are going to get slaughtered. SD is no doubt receiving an immense amount of the $500B/yr medicare outgo.

Plus SD is still dependent on military:

http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/SAND706GOVTN

With our current $900B/yr defense bill there is not any more growth left in that sector and SD will be lucky to retain what defense jobs it has this decade and next.

Maybe the snarky method of debate doesn't work afterall, because there are always others out there who are snarkier and smarmier than you.

That said, do snarky and smarmy comments -- based in emotion ultimately (anger, frustration, fear, etc.) -- constitute some sort of worthwhile "debate"?

Or is it more of a pissing match to see who has the biggest ego? If I want to see people exercise unlimited power over others, I'll watch execution videos for that, thank you. It's more to the point and wastes less time.

That said, it would be nice to watch some of you go at it with rusty butterknives, on live streaming video, to see who really does have the biggest ego and who is willing to kill other people to prove it. That process is covered in Robert's Rules of Order (parliamentary procedure), is it not?

BTW, it's "jibe" and not "jive," you jive turkey.