patrick.net

Troy says

If we actually had to pay for our military adventures we’d get into a lot less of them, and if our taxes were broken down on our paychecks like our phone bill is that would be a very good thing.

I think that is a brilliant idea, I've been thinking the same thing lately.

Why not simply break all the taxes down (like a phone bill) so that instead of a lump sum I get to see what every penny of it does. And overtime make programs live within their means or get cut. That would be beautiful.

Just to be clear I'm not advising soak the rich, (I don't subscribe to that). I'm simply saying it isn't fair that most of us get to pay taxes, and some get loopholes to not pay their share making the burden fall onto others.

thunder are you shorting anything specifically?

Regarding the actual spending agreement, letting the Republicans "win" this one is good I think.

Gives them some actual skin in the game for 2012.

If the economy bounces back, then cuts were good. If it doesn't, cuts were clearly bad.

The optics is pretty easy on this.

Of the hijackers on 9/11, all were from Saudi Arabia, with the exception of Fayez Banihammad, yet we attack Iraq & Afghanistan? Regarding Afghanistan, does anyone really know WHY we are there? Literally tens of thousands of innocent civilians (including children) have been killed, wounded and made into nomads because their villages and homes have been destroyed. Over 800 of our own troops have been killed. Not one army in history, beginning with Alexander the Great, has ever succeeded in Afghanistan. The CIA reports that there are only 200 al Qaeda in Afghanistan. Bin Laden is probably in southern Pakistan (if not already dead). Yet we not only remain in Afghanistan, but we are expanding our operations there … WHY??

I'm still choking on the day that I was going to buy Silver Wheaton $30 call options for a buck a piece. I was too tired and just went to bed and never bothered. Now that it's passed $45 I woulda turned my paycheck into a car. I'm going to start major profit taking on mining shares if Silver crosses $50.

Troy says

If the economy bounces back, then cuts were good. If it doesn’t, cuts were clearly bad.

The optics is pretty easy on this.

Right. Like they wouldn't put the entire right wing media and HUGE teabagger campaigns behind arguing that it was Obama's fault for his healthcare plan or changes in regulations for...whatever.

Wouldn't be surprised if there is a republican agenda right now (in some circles) that would like to take down the economy for exactly that reason. Take it down, blame Obama.

RayAmerica says

Of the hijackers on 9/11, all were from Saudi Arabia, with the exception of Fayez Banihammad,

I am not sure where you are getting your facts from Ray, oh... wait... I remember, you just make them up.

19 hijackers total:
Saudi = 15
UAE = 2 (FYI, Fayez Rashid Ahmad Banihammad, was one of these guys)
Lebanese = 1
Egyptian = 1

https://www.cia.gov/news-information/speeches-testimony/2002/DCI_18_June_testimony_new.pdf

RayAmerica says

Not one army in history, beginning with Alexander the Great, has ever succeeded in Afghanistan.

It depends on your definition of succeed. Actually Alexander did succeed in Afghanistan. He conquered them with a campaign from 330 to 327 BC and left an occupation in the area for several years. After his death the area became part of the empire of Seleucus Nicator. Dozens of rulers and empires have conquered Afghanistan over the last 2500 years. Like Alexander, when they died so did control of the country. Of course this conquest and reconquest is also true for almost every place in Asia and Europe so I guess pretty much everywhere in the old world could be called the graveyard of armies.

"Excuse me but when the government shuts down, what happens is that the Treasury and various laws determine what is ‘essential’ and what is ‘non-essential’ with the essential still provided and just the non-essential no longer provided. With me so far?"

A govt. shutdown resulting from the fialure to pass a budget is MUCH different from failing to raise the debt ceiling. In the case of the ceiling, if we don't raise it, the U.S. defaults on it's debt and cannot borrow any money. Spending would have to immediately be cut by over 40%. And the U.S. will lose it's AAA credit rating, which will result ina double dip worse than the first dip since interest rates will skyrocket.

I think it's the best time to buy and flip properties now.

I saw a lot of flippers making good money now, and I bought my primary home in 2010, even the price went down a little, but it doesn't matter to me. Because I am only paying $1550 per month include all the fees, after tax deduction, and principle, I am only paying $1000/month which is less than renting for sure. the rent in my area needs $1500 to $1800 for 3 bedroom and 2 baths.

Nathan says

I think it’s the best time to buy and flip properties now.

Enjoy the flipping. :)

Hit $42 last night. Pretty insane.

Back on topic.

Sarah Palin supports Trump's "birtherism".

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-503544_162-20052767-503544.html

In a Saturday interview on Fox News's Justice with Judge Jeanine, Palin stopped short of saying she believed the claims, but said "more power to" Trump if he wanted to use his considerable resources to look into the matter.

"He's not just throwing stones from the sidelines, he's digging in, he's paying for researchers to find out why President Obama would have spent $2 million to not show his birth certificate," Palin told host Jeanine Pirro.

"I think that he was born in Hawaii because there was the birth announcement put in the newspaper - but obviously if there's something there that the president doesn't want people to see on that birth certificate, that he's going to great lengths to make sure that it isn't shown, and that's kind of perplexing for a lot of people," she said.

Meanwhile, on ABC's "This Week" yesterday, White House senior adviser David Plouffe called Trump's recent claims "sideshow behavior" and said he had "zero chance" of being elected president.

"There may be a small part of the country that believes these things, but mainstream Americans think it's a sideshow," Plouffe said, of the birther issue. "And what they want our leaders to do is focus squarely on the issues right in front of us: how we're going to keep growing the economy...how we keep our people safe, how do we make sure we're going to win the future by focusing on things like education and innovation? So that's what they want us to focus on."

He added that he hoped Trump continued to do well in presidential straw polls.

"I saw Donald Trump kind of rising in some polls and given his behavior and spectacle the last couple of weeks, I hope he keeps on rising," Plouffe told said. "There is zero chance that Donald Trump would ever be hired by the American people to do this job."

In a recent interview with NBC News, a former Hawaiian state health official who twice reviewed Mr. Obama's birth certificate called the renewed discussion over the president's birthplace "ludicrous," and affirmed - for the third time - that that his original birth certificate was "real."

"It's kind of ludicrous at this point," said Dr. Chiyome Fukino, former director of Hawaii's Department of Health, told NBC in a phone interview.

Fukino said she has examined the president's "record of live birth" on multiple occasions. (The document circulated on the internet is Mr. Obama's "certificate of live birth," which is a shorter version of the original.) The birth certificate, she said, is kept in a bound volume in Hawaii's Department of Health, and features the signature of the doctor who delivered Mr. Obama.

If they joined forces, would it be Trump/Palin, or Palin/Trump?

Looks like Obama’s Birther strategy may pay off big time.
Here's my favorite scenario. Right after the Republican National Convention, hire Geraldo Rivera to open the file cabinets at the Hawaiian Department of Health and broadcast a live unveiling of the bound long form.

Vicente says

That's exactly how I saw Obama campaign posters.

I just saw that:

Silver Options Trader Bets $1 Million on Price Drop by July
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-04-11/silver-etf-options-trader-bets-1-million-on-37-slide-by-july.html

Anyone on this board, by chance?

CRB also had a bit on base metals this morning too:

Softer Commodity Prices?
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2011/04/softer-commodity-prices.html

The copper stockpiling is an old story at this point, though.

I wonder why Google maps can’t find the address. Is it a very new development? Maybe the address doesn’t officially exist yet.

They are a weird bunch. Sometimes I think CTA is mentally on another planet and are completely out of touch with reality.

But it’s only BLOCKS from a Million Dollar House!

The funny thing is the $3T of SSI/Medicare assets are counted as part of the debt ceiling since they are government bonds.

So either this debt is bona fide obligations of the US government or we're still 2-3 years away from hitting the statutory debt limit.

The idiots on the right can't have this both ways, tho of course they try.

Shrek ... If Mumia had killed a teacher (human being) instead of a cop (brutal non-human), I wonder if the teachers would be supporting the "union supporting, pro-education, civil rights hero?"

shrekgrinch says

Yeah, because Trump gets to drive this as an independent candidate while the Reps benefit w/o risk.

If the strategy is to appear to be the lesser of two crazies, then yes Republicans will benefit. They will not benefit if the angry Tea Party denizens vote Trump as a protest vote during the general election. There is ample evidence that Tea Party voters would rather cast a vote in protest giving Obama a second term than elect a moderate Republican. Obama's Presidency has been a great recruiter for the Tea Party.

Republicans can hope Trump drops out before the general election after rallying the base and reaping the rewards, but history shows differently. Trump is an egomaniac. I don't see him dropping out and endorsing a Republican candidate late in the game.

The best thing Democrats can do at this point is help Trump. Obama should cryptically allude to the fact that his "long" form has irregularities and may be incomplete. Birthers will seize on any little "evidence" like this to support their position.

The Republicans want to straddle the fence on this as a "safe" position. The issue will only become more polarized during the election. Fence sitters like Palin are indicating a willingness to take a side which shows that fence sitting Republicans will be destroyed in the primaries.

If I were Obama, I would order the Secret Service to safeguard Hawaiian birth records and keep them secret.

shrekgrinch says

Exactly where is this ‘evidence’…especially since all the actual teabaggers I talk to say that they’d die before voting for Obama.

I'm not suggesting Tea Party members will actually vote for Obama. I'm saying they will look at the ticket - Republican or Democrat - and write in Trump as a protest vote. They know this may lead to Obama squeeking out a win, but these folks are motivated by principle. Any Republican who tries to shift towards the center will be viewed as a weak sellout.

shrekgrinch says

He doesn’t have to drop out. He can pull a Perot/Nader on Obama and in a close election, that will be enough. Rep prez candidate wins. That is a a typical consequence in a two-party system when a third party/candidate runs, as per Duverger’s Law.

I don't think Obama faces any dangers from a third party candidate despite Presidential election history. I think the Tea Party is the actual incumbant in the 2012 race and the election will be a referendum on how well they and the Republicans did at tearing down Obama's accomplishments. Because of this there is a perception that Obama is the underdog with his base. They won't abandon him. All Obama has to do is shift right politically and the Republicans will be pushed into the extremist wing as they attempt to define themselves against Obama or they will see all of their issues co-opted a la Bill Clinton master stroke. Obama is already stealing conservative issues.

When the Republican candidate is picked, there will be a massive effort to paint him or her as more left-wing than Obama (if a moderate like Mitt) or a teabagger crazy nutjob (if a conservative like Palin). Trump will only pull votes from Republicans. No Democrats will vote for Trump, even socially conservative blue collar Dems. Trump reminds people of the @sshole boss everyone ever had. Trump will be Leona Helmsly'ed by a disgruntled former employee in the same way Meg Whitman got creamed in California. He is the ideal Democratic opponent.

shrekgrinch says

2) Trump will most likely take dem votes from Obama…as he is a non-Republican who is white and hasn’t racked up over a billion dollars in just one year of deficit spending.

Really? He's not a Republican?

http://news.yahoo.com/s/yblog_theticket/20110412/el_yblog_theticket/donald-trump-tops-new-2012-poll-as-he-steps-up-outreach-to-gop-conservatives

You must be living in a fantasy world if you think he will take away more Dem votes than Reps. You need to find the anchor...

thomas.wong1986 says

bubblesitter says

Same here. Been waiting since 2004. People at my work were buying left and right in 2004 and I went a different direction and I am delighted I did. Now just waiting for a true bottom.

We are pretty much at 2004 prices today. Back in 2004 and even still today way way out from the norm/bottom in prices. It was rather mindboogling how much people were bidding/buying up home in 2002-2004 for compared to 5-6 years prior.
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

here in LA we're at 2002/2003 prices...

SubOink says

here in LA we’re at 2002/2003 prices…

More like 03-04 prices....

Nathan says

I think it’s the best time to buy and flip properties now.

Works in some locations.

For Los Angeles, it works IF you get the property cheap enough AND IF you have good contractors that are relatively inexpensive.

At the moment, decently located turnkey properties with modern upgrades seem to command a strong premium and quick sale over other type properties in all non outlying areas of LA County, and even moreso in areas that are considered to be safe and have decent schools.

Most often(for LA County) this takes the form of shady insider stuff that most people don't have access to.

klarek says

SubOink says

here in LA we’re at 2002/2003 prices…

More like 03-04 prices….

Last time, I looked at homes was in 2003, I kept a lot of the listings MLS sheets and checked them out. Half of them are selling at below the asking price of 2003. 2002 prices are rare but you can find them. And some people are still in dream land asking 2004 prices (but not getting them).

If you have time to look, have a downpay and can get a loan..there are some amazing deals out there.

klarek says

More like 03-04 prices….

I shall confirm this.

Our condo originally was on the market for 140k when we got it years ago. About a year after that bubble started emerging and price went up to over 400k (it was really dumb). Today our neighbors foreclosed condo (exact same as ours) is on the market at 220k.... been there for a while with no takers. 220k in this area is a lot of money, people have metal bars on windows out here for a reason.

Prices have a lot of room to go down, because bank is certainly motivated to not keep on paying $300 HOA fee every month and god knows how much in other repairs.