patrick.net

Sorry, no long form just the short one:

I dunno man, I heard there was a farmer that died the day BEFORE Bin Laden, and yet his certificate number ended in 017802.

shrekgrinch says

The question is did he die of kidney failure in 2003 like the US Military and various intelligence agencies believed or was he really killed the other day?

I'm sorry which "US military" and agency pronouncements of death do you refer to?

Here's your hat, hope it'll suffice until the stylish Simchaland line of hats come out.

shrekgrinch says

So they had the occasional Rep governor. California just had one before Jerry Brown. Big deal.

Oh Shrekie, Shrekkie, Shrekkie. It is a big deal if you care about the truth. Obviously it's not important in your fantasy land...

shrekgrinch says

Oh Tatu! What part of the term ’sworn affidavits’ do you not understand? That press release is not a sworn affidavit.

Yes, excellent point. Because that press release doesn't sound anything like a sworn affadavit at all, does it.

It cracks me up that you complain that everyone has poor reading comprehension skills. Maybe if you stopped the outright lies, people would have an easier time understanding you...

shrekgrinch says

So they had the occasional Rep governor. California just had one before Jerry Brown. Big deal.

Wow, this quote is special... Do you really believe the stuff you write?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Governors_of_California

I count no less than 13 Republican Governors since 1900 for California.

There were only 5 Democratic Governors since 1900 for California (and that's counting Jerry Brown twice!).

Oh and there was that one Republican that changed parties to become a progressive whom I didn't count in the 13 Republican Governors since 1900 for California.

So, just so you know, these are facts. Your assertion that there was only 1 Republican Governor before Jerry Brown is a belief. Do you get it now?

And another interesting fact is that there were only 15 California Democratic Governors since the founding of the state (including 2 Lecompton Democrats) compared with 20 California Republican Governors since the founding of the state (not including the 1 Unionist Republican). So, what say you?

16% of Americans are brain dead and 30% of Republicans might as well be slugs.

16% may not seem as much but that's 1 out of 6 people.

shrekgrinch says

The question is did he die of kidney failure in 2003 like the US Military and various intelligence agencies believed or was he really killed the other day?

Amazing operation, they actually built a compound like OBLs in Afghanistan for training, and 30 to 40 seals stormed it and supposedly took the body. You've got Gates and countless other high level people involved. And you think that it's possible this is a hoax? Now we all know the serious reasoning skills that are behind your economic assertions.

I guess a picture would convince everyone.

"Because w/o it people will always have doubts…not just here but world wide."

Even if pictures of the body are released, those same nutcases will still have doubts. They will claim that it is not him or that the photo was photoshopped.

ChrisLA says

Granted that is mainly done by marcus, who is generally the perpetrator of simply trying to get the rise out of people, it isn’t limited to him.

Shouldn't you throw in some absurdly stupid comment about unions, as you know,...punctuation? Or maybe tell me about how I hide behind children in my greed because obviously I'm only interested in myself, ...that like all union guys I'm basically just some kind of narcissistic asshole, just like...

I might have trolled Ray once or twice, or Shrek, but that's because they are constantly trolling everyone.

By the way, I don't have anything against real conservatives. You know, the kind who might say something like, "I'm an old fashioned conservative. Sure, I'm embarrassed by the fools and the extremists, but honestly we had to embrace them, and unfortunately we have to constantly play the God, Guns and Gay cards, and even the racism card sometimes, because we believe that's the only way we can win elections."

Well, maybe I went a little far there. Because I couldn't really respect that attitude, but I would prefer it over the Abe, Ray or Shrek type, just because the honesty would be so refreshing.

They probably are keeping him in Guantanamo. He was too high profile to just shoot. I could be wrong, merely speculating.

But you never will see that kind of honesty from a republican. If they were that honest, with others and with themselves, they would have to become an independent.

If Bin Laden was alive, they would send him to a secret CIA prison in the Middle East or Eastern Europe for enhanced interrorgation, not Gitmo.

HousingWatcher says

If Bin Laden was alive, they would send him to a secret CIA prison in the Middle East or Eastern Europe for enhanced interrorgation, not Gitmo.

I doubt it. But if so, let's hope it's super enhanced.

There were lots of kids, and his wife there (still alive) so if they took him alive, it seems that would get out. But who knows, maybe some special gun that shoots tranquilizer bullets (not darts).

Seems highly unlikely. But who knows. He would have some quality info.

IF you like speculation, how about this. Maybe he was shot by one of his people, based on instructions he had given.

You know? Fuck it!
If the Lemmings needs this to make them feel safe, who cares when or how he died.
I think the economy might finally start turning around.

I think people and money really bought into the whole Boogey man package. It has gripped the worlds financial psyche for a whole goddamn decade, which has cast a huge shadow of uncertainty for too long. These scared babies hedged their money on the worlds dinner plate. Because they know even if the worlds financial centers were leveled in tandem tomorrow, the whole world would still have to eat. But this has been risky, because there does come a tipping point, where entire countries revolt because they can't eat, which creates even more uncertainty.

So you see, it was Vital that Obama put an end to the legend and the madness that has loomed over the worlds economic soul for so long. Like Colonel Walter E. Kurtz, haking Captain Benjamin L. Willard with a machete, in the finale of apocalypse now. (Another fictitious death scene.)

But you know the markets and commodities can't be wrong. Capitol will make a mass exodus now, and begin to flood into manufacturing, services and other vertices other than being hedged on volatile risks.

The money is coming out of it's hole now, it's a new day.

Oh blessed be, it's a happy ending. "Zippity doo dah Zippity AYE!"

marcus says

it seems that would get out.

No silly, you just use one of these:

Should have offered $350K or less to begin with.
Of course people would laugh at those low offers back than,
but no one is laughing today...and wouldnt be up shit creek today.

E-man says

This further confirms that the divergence between the more desirable and less desirable neighborhoods are geting wider.

Was there such divergence before the bubble, before 1998 ?

thomas.wong1986 says

Should have offered $350K or less to begin with.

Of course people would laugh at those low offers back than,

but no one is laughing today…and wouldnt be up shit creek today.

san jose and san francisco have been on top for the last 20 years.
vallejo and stockton have been on the bottom for the last 20 years.
the relationship between top and bottom is very stable.

also the last time san jose and san francisco were in line with inflation was 1986 - 25 years ago.
during the last housing bust (1989-1996), only stockon, vallejo and oakland were at or below inflation; all the other cities were above the inflation line even at the lowest point.

ChrisLA says

The fact that a lot of the people in this thread simply generalize conservatives and than make it sound like it is a clueless group just further proves the point about dismissal of ideas.

ChrisLA, would you please take a shot at explaining the poll Shrek posted?

http://www.zogby.com/news/2011/05/03/16-all-voters-30-republicans-continue-believe-obama-not-born-us-/

34% of self-identified conservatives do not believe Obama was born in the US. And this is AFTER he got the Hawaii registrar to provide a copy of his "long form".

How do you explain that, other than something deeply wrong with the large chunk of conservatives' grasp on reality?

Your best bet is to scroll across various address in the area your looking on RedFin or Zillow maps making note of historical prices, actual and per sq ft and plot on spreadsheet. Yes, lots of work, but worth it.

Additional sites that have data

http://www.fhfa.gov/Default.aspx?Page=216
http://www.dqnews.com/Articles/archive.aspx
http://www.housingbubblebust.com/OFHEO/Major/NorCal.html

Pretty funny!

1638 Prince St Berkeley, CA 94703

http://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1638-Prince-St-Berkeley-CA-94703/24828695_zpid/#{scid=hdp-site-map-list-address}

Make me move for $580,000 back in 2009

Now in 2011 reduced to $399,000 from $425,000

Have fun low balling, why stop at $399K.

MarkInSF says

How do you explain that, other than something deeply wrong with the large chunk of conservatives’ grasp on reality?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bullshit

VanillaSky says

all the other cities were above the inflation line even at the lowest point.

one hell of a deviation!

Troy says

MarkInSF says

How do you explain that, other than something deeply wrong with the large chunk of conservatives’ grasp on reality?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/On_Bullshit

Both lies and bullshit can either be true or false but bullshitters aim primarily to impress and persuade their audiences, and in general are unconcerned with the truth or falsehood of their statements

Yeah, but who is the "audience" in random poll?

I guess where I was going with that is that reality is over-rated.

When we survey the conservative view -- the racism, homophobia, religious fundamentalism, climate and evolution skepticism, priapism for the military, voodoo economics, etc -- it's not so much a question of reality, but an effort to substitute their anti-reality, which is a form of dadaism really.

By making us deal with their bullshit, we are blocked from advancing our own aims. The more bullshit they create, the more we are blocked.

Conservatives believe the best defense is a good offense.

This is kinda how the soviets abused their citizenry, and also what Orwell picked up on, how ideologues can control the reality that matters by getting people to willingly deny the factual reality.

Who wants "reality" when bullshit is so much more comforting?

http://www.gallup.com/poll/145286/four-americans-believe-strict-creationism.aspx

Just 1 in 6 Americans don't buy the bullshit, by that poll.

Of course we know about Zillow and the like. I have been cruising the Bank Real Estate Owned sites. For a change. Not the way I usually do things. They are a laugh to. The thing is they aren't holding houses off the market. So the glut of houses they have. They are putting the high dollar stuff on there. Lower priced than usual of course.

The inexpensive stuff. They aren't listing AT ALL. Why because they are moving the higher dollar stuff first. Hoping for prices to rise. Which they aren't and won't. See. A lender does not make that much on a 60k house. He dosen't make anything on a 20k house. There are plenty of those avalible now. They list the junk on there of course the 20k houses they can't sell because they are junk. So a lot of the houses they are holding off the market are the ones you would snap up. Decent houses.

They are shooting themselves by doing this of course. It's funny in a way watching them twist in the sand. So they are there the ones you want. However their greed is getting them in so much trouble they will never be able to get out of it. Just wait you will see.

Hilarious, Trump (Jimmy Fallon) taking credit for killing Osama Bin Laden:

http://video.aol.com/video/donald-trump-on-late-night-50211-tv-replay/1193057313

There has been a global push towards cities. The Bay Area is just part of that. Which would suggest an increase in real value of San Francisco and San Jose relative to Vallejo and Stockton.

As for the topic of houses going from $610K to $350K, you'll easily find a lot worse in Vallejo. C'est la vie. It's still a nice town.

VanillaSky says

thomas.wong1986 says

Should have offered $350K or less to begin with.
Of course people would laugh at those low offers back than,
but no one is laughing today…and wouldnt be up shit creek today.

san jose and san francisco have been on top for the last 20 years.

vallejo and stockton have been on the bottom for the last 20 years.

the relationship between top and bottom is very stable.
also the last time san jose and san francisco were in line with inflation was 1986 - 25 years ago.

during the last housing bust (1989-1996), only stockon, vallejo and oakland were at or below inflation; all the other cities were above the inflation line even at the lowest point.

This just shows the inevitable creep towards reversion to the mean even for those "ultra special, desirable" areas that everyone wants to live in . For those who've recently purchased a McMansion in some tony Bay Area enclave demographics, globalization and the decline of the US economy aren't exactly working for you.

1 sold 20% of my holdings 10 days ago. Now I'm feeling that I should have sold more.

Ardenwood Fremont New Home

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Fremont/5821-Tan-Oak-Dr-94555/home/18796475

2007 sold for 1,388,000 (John Laing New Home)
2011 Listed for Short Sale at 999,999
2011 Sold for 865,000 ( $261/sq ft when the rate in Ardenwood is around $381/sq ft)
The new price matches rent payment

The builder John Laing went Bankrupt and project is incomplete.
This was one of the completed home

^ that's a nice 38% discount from 2007.

an average 9% decrease each year on $1.4M.

funny that people were calling the bottom as early as 2007.

CA is so strange. I live in Freemont up untill I was 7, and having read about CA prices (this was at mkt peak) I was curious about the house I had lived in. Although I didn't remember the address, I was able to locate the house on Zillow having remembered the name of the st (cul-de-sac) and was able to determine which house by the shape of the lot and location. To my utter shock, the "Zestimate" (taking it with a grain of salt, of course) was in the mid to upper $600K. My folks both worked, mom as a secretary & dad as a mechanic. This was a starter home and the neighborhood was modest. I was just shocked that a modest starter home could be in the $600's. In my mind, even if the house is worth 1/2 that figure, it still is beyond me how a typical family buying a starter home for that kind of $. Crazy.

PRICE AND VALUE are NOT THE SAME

property was never "worth" 610k to begin with.

appraiser says

PRICE AND VALUE are NOT THE SAME
property was never “worth” 610k to begin with.

Yeah! Where in the hell were you about 8 years ago?

E-man says

You and I will never see home prices in SF and SJ areas hitting that inflation line ever in our lifetime unless the Bay Area will become the next Detroit

this is myopic.
it's not like you've worked out all the possible future scenarios and based on this careful analysis of these scenarios, come to a conclusion that it'll never happen.
it sounds like you can't even see any other future unfolding except your one biased view.

this is the same line of reasoning that had people saying "house prices never go down".

i guarantee the future will be different than you think (generally speaking, not specifically referring to the bay area/inflation).

E-man says

It is “worth” whatever someone is willing to pay for it, no?

No! The actual worth of a house does not depend on what some fool is willing to pay, because he cannot count on the next fool paying the same.