patrick.net

Netreality says

What sites on SF peninsula real estate contain articles or forums populated by knowledgeable commentators that are NOT part of the Fringe, either top or bottom.

i.e. "prices will drop by 75%, just wait" and "all realtors are realtards"
or
"prices are recovering, buy now, best time ever, location, location, location"

you see where I'm going?

This forum is lost to the first faction.

In 2006, anyone who said that prices would drop by 30% was considered in the fringe. Now, that prices have dropped by 30-40-50%, that person is considered to be an optimist. Maybe, one day, the guy who said that prices will drop all the way back to 1975 level may be considered an optimist, too.

The second faction is realtors.

Prices will probably still drop some more. Maybe a lot. Doubtful that it's a 75% drop?

Bubbles tend to overcorrect so we've got a bit of a ways to go still. And when prices do start going up it won't be fast so you won't be missing out on some great buy.

Is this reasonable enough for you?

Maybe you should accept that you're not going to hear what you want to hear about real estate right now. Or you could read the nytimes etc, which regularly publishes articles quoting "experts" about how there are again "unexpected" drops in home prices.

You can tell they are "knowledgeable" by the amount of times they are caught unexpected-like.

Take note patrick...certain individuals are ruining your forums, this is not the first such complaint, but this is the first such individual that is actively looking for some other forum to frequent.

Its not possible to find such an "objective" forum.

Any site currently on the internet that DOES NOT include some sort of trolls with favortism towards bear positions will 100% of the time be filled with realtors who are bulls, and almost guaranteed to be unintentional trolls.

Why do you think the proliferations of bear trolls has occured here at Patrick.net?

Perhaps it has something to do with a certain group of posters continuing to post rosy housing news despite a continually declining market.

I think the sentiment is quite clear: Realtors are not invited to comment. Those who continue to do so will be pointed out immediately, mocked, and humiliated.

Netreality says

knowledgeable commentators

Hell I'll settle for plausible contortionists.

To be clear with what I am stating above.....

Its insulting to be told one thing while the facts of the situation are quite obvious.

So why not humiliate those who do this sort of thing?

First, try the "flag" link by any given comment that's especially offensive. I get a note of each flag. After three flags by different users, the comment goes into moderation and is invisible until I decide what to do with it.

Second, try the "ignore" link on users you don't want to hear from again. That makes them completely disappear for you.

I'm also working on converting the "Outside" forum into a "Jail" forum where repeat offenders can post and comment while they are temporarily banned from the rest of the forum.

Other suggestions that preserve free speech but also limit the ability of a few bad commenters to annoy everyone else?

I find the Ignore works pretty well, although topics are invisibly derailed sometimes. I do think that banning should be considered when the vast majority of a users posts are insults and nothing more. I'm all for free speech but people can start their own thread instead of derailing others.

Manbearpig says

Doubtful that it's a 75% drop

It is more than 75% as an investment for most. Remember that leverage thingy. ;) Great on the way up but sucks bad on the way down.

This forum has been here since 2005 maybe earlier. it's here to stay and is not really all that off the mark IMHO.

Don't listen to anyone's opinion. Go look at places like Zillow. Click around and see graph of house prices over 10 years. See that huge bubble? Then, see the number of foreclosures compared to total houses for sale. See how there are 100 foreclosures out of 200 houses? See the median price of house, see the median income of the town. Prices 10X median income? Zillions of foreclosures? 15% plus unemployment? This area has houses that are going down.
Check out various towns and see what is happening. Not all locations are going to lose the same amount of value.

Thanks in large part to this blog and forum, I was able to sell my dad's house after he passed away by biting the bullet and dropping the price a hundred thousand dollars. (The house quickly dropped in value, and is now worth less than I sold it for, in '08. Luckily, the buyers love it and want to keep it, which is good because I hold a second on it... yes, I did what it took to keep those buyers, thank goodness.)

I recently put one poster on ignore, not due to "extreme" views (check Automatic Earth, and you'll read about deflation dropping home values 80% to 90%) but because all his/her posts seemed to consist merely of verbal abuse, with no added value. Be amusing at least (Mmm, Cannibalism!), or it's off with your head.

My Father taught me to read between the lines when listening to the news.
You need to understand WHO the source is, He said.
W.T.F. was not yet allowed in Stoic Catholic households.
I now enjoy trying to understand what an individual's impetus is. Most Writers are transparent intentionally. You might think some of the authors lost their families life's savings due to misrepresentation by certain professionals that we all rely on. Some hooligans were either picked on in their youth or are really intent on savagely molesting an ideology (realtors) with the fantasy hope of some real benefit or return.
I find the majority have intentions of benefiting fellow Patrick.net readers through their own personal experiences.
I feel the "ignore button" is how we treat the homeless. With a little tact, most people benefit from constructive Criticism.
I propose the "ignore button" title should be tested as an "Intervention Button".
Bottom line; Netreality, take in all the info you can, then shoot from the hip.
No business or gubmint benefits by reducing confidence. Nor does Patrick.net benefit for providing access to unbiased news.

My Father's plaque set attop of the Corkscrew. Thanks Dad.

I'm kind of sympathetic to obnoxious people because I have a hard time not being obnoxious myself sometimes. But if I really make the effort to understand how my reasoning threatens someone's desired conclusions, the conversation is definitely more productive.

Patrick.net started as me summarizing all the arguments I heard about housing while riding in the bike car on Caltrain every day up to my job in SF during the dot-com bubble. The summary is on these pages:

http://patrick.net/housing/crash1.html and 2 and 3.

What I got out of several years of argument was this: People do not reason forward, from facts to conclusions. Instead, they reason backwards, starting with a conclusion they like (house prices will go up, I will get rich, I will live forever in heaven with Jesus) and then looking for evidence and arguments that support their desired conclusions. They also tend to congregate (in congregations!) with people who have the same desired conclusions, because then they don't have to deal with those pesky people who don't accept their conclusions from the get-go.

So the process of converting people to your way of thinking doesn't involve facts as much as it does outlining some alternate vision of their own happiness.

Original harmful vision, planted by realtors for their own benefit: "If you just own a home, no matter what you borrow and pay, then you will be happy."

Patrick's alternate vision: "If you just avoid crushing debt, then you will have much more real freedom in your life, and you'll be happy. At least happier than the guy in debt is."

TMAC54 says

Nor does Patrick.net benefit for providing access to unbiased news.

True. So far the benefit to me has been truly minimal. I've tried all kinds of business models but none have clicked so far. The problem is that telling people not to take out a mortgage leaves no honest way to get at the traditional real estate revenue streams (commissions and interest payments).

In the end its all about your own personal way of how you decide to live your life. There is no universal answer.

You just have to take everyone's opinion (including mine) with a grain of salt. After all, what I love you may hate and vice versa.

I remember looking at a house that was at the intersection of sepulveda and 405 - as we pulled up I said to the realtor "You kidding, right??? Who on earth wants to live here..?"
Then, there was the couple from NY that literally told their realor, find us something on a busy street. My husband can't sleep if its quiet. - Go figure. There is something out there for everyone. Some people hate the concept of debt. Others feel completely comfortable with it. My own personal opinion is this...I have to live somewhere so either way I will have to cough up $xxx for the rest of my life. Renting or owning. So having a mortgage now after years of renting doesn't really feel so different. I don't feel enslaved. Actually, the interest portion on my mortgage (the throw out part) is WAY less than what my rent used to be. And (once again a personal opinion) I feel completely different waking up in my own house (yes, its own by the bank until I paid it off blablabla - anyways, I own it, I can do what I want). Most of my friends that have recently bought for the first time in their lives say that. It feels so different. You see a broken outlet and replace it with joy. It's yours. Rentals are all beat up places which proves how renters feel about their home. Use it, abuse it and move on.

Renting, Owning all have advantages and disadvantages - you just have to figure out what is most important to yourself.

You just have to zone out the permabears and/or permabulls. The truth will always be somewhere in between.

Or...just wait for 1975 prices...lol - I am looking forward to that too...I will buy 100 houses then.

Manbearpig says

Doubtful that it's a 75% drop?

You will find areas which inflated by +300%, and are prime candiates for a correction. When you factor a normal historical apprication of 40% max over the past 12-13 years, the difference would indicate a fall of 65-75%.

These regions may be the most affluent areas of the state. As was the case in 1988-89 the prime candidates was uber upper class Orange County which saw home values fall by 40%. The "less affuent" regions of So Call, like Riverside, were not impacted.. they didnt inflate in prices and didnt fall.

Netreality says

This forum is lost to the first faction.

With all due respect, no one is forcing you to visit this blog.

Personally, I am not suffering financially because of this blog.

Also, 'knowledgeable commentators'? The New York Times or a report from the Federal Reserve is not good enough for you? I am comfortable discussing Real Estate at work because I can say it came from this source.

Anything else wouldn't be very nice.

Helloeeze says

Of course, Las Vegas has a long way to still drop. The Bay Area less so.

First, taking this example this is an example of a 72% drop in price from a peak point in Las Vegas: ({sigh} unknowledgeable commentators...)

http://www.redfin.com/NV/Las-Vegas/8400-Wildheart-Ranch-St-89131/home/28984574

I found this example quickly as there are so many listings, so, I don't know about the neighborhood, etc. It looks nice to me.

Not saying Las Vegas won't drop more, I'm open to out of the box thinking.

"I don't think it would hurt at all to wait." Yeah, come to his conclusion lately.

Damn, outside Peets in Menlo Park today, I read was a front page article on the Mercury News in the newstand about how high-end house prices are now falling rapidly, with foreclosures and short sales.

Yet that article is not on their website! Why not?

Patrick, I know we can ignore people, except when they come back under another name, but I think the person calling everyone "squealing lying bitch realtors" probably has overstepped his boundaries a bit, or am I over reaching here?

GoranK says

Patrick, I know we can ignore people, except when they come back under another name, but I think the person calling everyone "squealing lying bitch realtors" probably has overstepped his boundaries a bit, or am I over reaching here?

One nice thing about the ignore function is that it still works even if they change their username in their Profile. They would have to re-register using a different email address to evade the ignore filter.

Yes, that's overstepping boundaries, and that's what the Jail forum will be for. But what exactly is the offense that gets you put there, for how long, etc? I'd like it to all be very clear and not supress anyone's right to say what they really think.

Rather than just make it some judgement call on my part, it would be nice if it had really clear parameters, like "you got X flags and Y ignores in Z amount of time".

Helloeeze says

I don't think anyone knows for sure which way the market will go for sure. I think Robert Schiller was pretty on top of it when he said a year ago that homes would continue to decline in price. It really depends on the area. Of course, Las Vegas has a long way to still drop. The Bay Area less so.

I think you have that backwards..

Helloeeze says

The average nothing engineer makes at least 100K.

Which doesn't even qualify him to buy a starter home built by an uneducated construction worker in less than 3 months.

Helloeeze says

Yeah, but his wife makes 300K. So save the wife's income for a couple years and you got a nice down payment.

What woman making 300K/year would marry a nothing engineer who only makes 100K/year?

dunnross says

What woman making 300K/year would marry a nothing engineer who only makes 100K/year?

Well,

maybe they love each other.

Rather than just make it some judgement call on my part, it would be nice if it had really clear parameters, like "you got X flags and Y ignores in Z amount of time".

I think this is flawed because if I was a douchebag with a lot of time on my hands I could just make multiple accounts and ignore/flag the same guy over and over to keep him in jail. And I just generally don't like the ignore feature because I don't like seeing threads with missing posts. The flag feature is a good one though, but I think that you really just need to have moderators who are trusted with a little bit of power to keep the forums in line.

Helloeeze says

Sorry to tell you but your target audience isn't here. You are talking to the air.......

I dunno, buddy. I'm one that is being swayed to the idea that realtors are, by and large, corrupt. I didn't think that before coming to this site. I have acquaintances who are realtors, never really thought of them as "bad" people, just thought they were making a lot of money doing something I didn't understand.

But since reading this blog (yes, including the more "outrageous" comments) it seems that realtors really are a harmful bunch.

You might not care for this guy's comments, but they do have a place. I find his comments no more "overstepping boundaries" than the incessant stories in the mainstream press about how prices are "close to the bottom" and they just "unexpectedly" dropped again.

Patrick,

Why about a self-moderating system? If someone's post gets 5 flags on any number of posts within a certain time period (maybe 1-2 hours?), the comment immediately goes invisible, or they get put in the jail forum.

Less time baby sitting too.

I like this forum, and bear or bull, I like the input from the people not calling me a realtor bitch.

I only have one account, and I didn't even flag your post even though you called me a realtor bitch.

I'm not a realtor, or agent, I don't think I could work on commission. I'm a horrible salesperson.

But that doesn't excuse the fact that the way you communicate really sucks.

He really needs to grow up and get that chip off his shoulder, he wasn't even smart enough to think of that for himself. I brought that up. And he basically called me a realtor bitch for it. LOL

He calls everyone a realtor bitch (or should that be LYING, CORRUPT, REALTOR BITCH?) who doesn't think prices are going to drop a further 65/75/85/95/whatever takes his fancy this particular day %.

The thing to remember is that real estate is about 90% based in psychology. Most people buy houses for purely emotional, symbolic reasons and not necessarily financial ones. Also- in areas like the Peninsula where prices are high no matter what metrics being used, its more or less a target for emotions from people on both sides simply because so much is at stake. Those who want to buy will have to make an enormous financial commitment and in many cases they will lean heavily on that choice as a major factor towards their future financial well being. Those who don't buy because they can't afford it or they're uncomfortable paying the prices naturally have an incentive to see prices fall. Those who invest in real estate naturally have an incentive to see prices rise and in some instances they will make attempts to boost the overall notion of real estate for that cause.

Its all raw human emotion and when we're talking about $700,000 2 and 3 bedroom suburban starter homes from the 50's then the emotional stakes are that much higher. No matter what forum you're on.

Yes, people buy for emotional reasons rather than financial ones, but it's still often a financial suicide around here. What's even worse is that "your" realtor sees you on that ledge and gives you a shove off to your financial death so that they can profit from it.

So I say "Look, here is an alternate vision of happiness for you, one without a house right here right now, but also without that huge poisonous debt." And all the tension an fear about overspending then becomes conviction that not buying is the right thing to do in such a toxic real estate environment.

And it also becomes self-fulfilling truth: if enough people see that it's financial suicide to overspend like that, then they refuse to do it, and prices come down. It's a battle for minds.

Case in point.

Yet another forum topic taken over by people insulting each other, without a single answer to the question.

I still think housing is overpriced in the bay area, RBA, and many micro-markets. I also think Silicon Valley is a major hot-spot of strong employment, high salaries, IPOs, many millionaires, trust fund babies, etc. that will prevent prices from dropping much in the near future. That's my current assessment of reality. I need another place to live. Rentals are as overpriced as housing in towns near my job, my spouse’s job, good schools.

I have been visiting Patrick.net for many years, and occasionally still get good nuggets of info, but they are drowned in the overwhelming spew of verbal diarrhea.

All for free speech, but I'm starting to believe if you wouldn't be willing to say it to a real person, face-to-face, you should think twice or three or ten times before posting it. Free speech means you won't be arrested by the government, but it doesn't have to mean you're a welcome contributor to every random forum for which you have an idea.

Can I ignore certain people and not the whole thread? Would I have to spend hours ‘ignoring’ people to make it a good experience for me? Not worth it.

Let's be honest too, places like Cupertino, and Los Gatos aren't going back to 1998 prices nominally regardless of what rents are. Too many asians who actually think Cupertino prices are CHEAP compared to what they can buy back home.

The demographics of the city have shifted so much that for Cupertino to fall in price by 65%, you would have to get rid of all the foreigners living there now.

Prices will get chopped in places like Vallejo, or West Oakland, yes, and they have fallen. Places like Cupertino... no.

No they won't, unless you make housing prices in Singapore and Hong Kong drastically go down, which they won't since there are so many people living there that people pay $200 a month to live in a chicken cage 3 feet high and 6 feet wide, against a wall in a slumlord's building in Kowloon District.

Manbearpig says

The second faction is realtors.

Prices will probably still drop some more. Maybe a lot. Doubtful that it's a 75% drop?

Bubbles tend to overcorrect so we've got a bit of a ways to go still. And when prices do start going up it won't be fast so you won't be missing out on some great buy.

Is this reasonable enough for you?

Maybe you should accept that you're not going to hear what you want to hear about real estate right now. Or you could read the nytimes etc, which regularly publishes articles quoting "experts" about how there are again "unexpected" drops in home prices.

You can tell they are "knowledgeable" by the amount of times they are caught unexpected-like.

clambo says

Don't listen to anyone's opinion. Go look at places like Zillow. Click around and see graph of house prices over 10 years. See that huge bubble? Then, see the number of foreclosures compared to total houses for sale. See how there are 100 foreclosures out of 200 houses? See the median price of house, see the median income of the town. Prices 10X median income? Zillions of foreclosures? 15% plus unemployment? This area has houses that are going down.

Check out various towns and see what is happening. Not all locations are going to lose the same amount of value.

Helloeeze says

I am able to ignore the extremists here. I read about 3 words of their post and then ignore the rest and wonder briefly what made them so angry.

I don't think anyone knows for sure which way the market will go for sure. I think Robert Schiller was pretty on top of it when he said a year ago that homes would continue to decline in price. It really depends on the area. Of course, Las Vegas has a long way to still drop. The Bay Area less so.

I don't think it would hurt at all to wait.

Netreality says

Case in point.

Yet another forum topic taken over by people insulting each other, without a single answer to the question.

Are you trolling? Did you read the thread? There are plenty of people here being reasonable and answering your question. A question which is purposefully aggressive I might add.

Can you at least try to explain how prices in Cupertino will fall that low (to 1990s prices)?

Cupertino is still selling at pretty much the same prices as 2006, even after the crash. Is there going to be another imminent huge crash coming?

there are no extremists here, only realists and realtors.

So I say "Look, here is an alternate vision of happiness for you, one without a house right here right now, but also without that huge poisonous debt." And all the tension an fear about overspending then becomes conviction that not buying is the right thing to do in such a toxic real estate environment.

That's easier said than done. Its not really about happiness but societal expectation. We've all been led to believe that as Americans, the ultimate symbol of success is attaining what amounts to a middle class existence: getting married, having a coupla' kids, owning a house on a culdesac, and so on. We are told that if we get married, have kids, get to a certain age, etc etc that buying a home is logically what must happen next because its been so deeply ingrained to our heads. It'd be a lie if I too didn't admit I'd like to buy a house and probably because I too have overhyped visions of ordinary, if not boring aspirations of having my own house where boring things like plumbing, a garage full of junk, and a few trees and shrubs out back are all within "my" domain. As if I would instantly have more stability and ... "reliability" in my life. Looking at it that way a lot of Americans put an enormous emphasis on trying to attain a stable and perhaps boring, middle class existence.