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Facebook lockup period


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2012 Aug 17, 2:48am   26,184 views  62 comments

by swebb   ➕follow (0)   💰tip   ignore  

I have enjoyed watching the whole FB thing unfold, partly schadenfreude, I guess, but it's also just interesting (the RedHat IPO was the last one I watched so closely)

Anyway, there has been a lot of talk about the lockup provisions expiring and the potential for the market to get flooded by people who hold stock that has been so far held off the market.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/technology/schedule-of-when-facebook-insiders-employees-can-sell-stock/2012/08/17/8a7718dc-e883-11e1-9739-eef99c5fb285_story.html

In summary:

Up to 1.91 billion more shares could flood the stock market — more than four times the 421 million shares that had been trading since Facebook’s initial public offering in May.

IPO: 421 million
Thursday: 271 million shares held by early investors and directors
Unspecified date between Oct. 15 and Nov. 13: 243 million shares and stock
Nov. 14: 1.22 billion shares and stock options, about a third of which is controlled by Zuckerberg.
Dec. 14: 149 million shares held by early investors and others who participated in IPO, except Zuckerberg.
May 18, 2013: 47 million shares held by early investors

That seems like a lot to me. Obviously it's unlikely that everyone is going to dump all of their holdings (particularly Zuckerberg), but this doesn't seem good for the stock price.

It will be interesting to watch.

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41   theoakman   2012 Aug 28, 11:17am  

thomaswong.1986 says

theoakman says

Facebook's model for ads is flawed. Google ads work because people use google to search.

who cares? no one ...LOL! its all a bunch of hype over advertising nonsense.

Obviously you since you are on this thread and replying to it

42   Eman   2012 Aug 28, 11:46am  

Tiny Tina,

Let it go. ;)

43   Serpentor   2012 Aug 28, 12:13pm  

No amount of baiting is going to make people take a bad deal.

The price point alone makes it unattractive. It's a coin toss where the "house" keeps 25%.. fuck dat .. I also don't brag about how much I made, but yes I did put my money where my mouth was and it was one of the easiest and few short term trades I've made in a long time.

Tina, I'm sorry you are losing money, you better dump that pig before the 1.4B shares flood the market. What ever possessed you to buy this POS? is this why you are interested in E-man's deal? you want someone to take a bad deal to make yourself feel better about your poor decision?

44   Serpentor   2012 Aug 28, 12:16pm  

tiny tina says

You said $100 was chickenshit and then it's too much to carry on you? To me, these points conflict, and is evidence of Internet muscles. No, I'm not e-man.

yes. I don't carry cash. Welcome to the modern world.

maybe thats why you are so enamored with FB. you think its some kind of fancy innovative new tech company. LOL

45   bmwman91   2012 Aug 28, 4:09pm  

Oh Tiny Tina...

Join us. Our jimmies remain steadfast against the rustling, for all eternity.

46   Eman   2012 Aug 28, 4:57pm  

^^ bmwman, I don't get the post above. Can you explain? Yeah, English is my 2nd language so I'm a little slow sometimes.

47   tiny tina   2012 Aug 29, 1:16am  

E-man says

Tiny Tina,

Let it go. ;)

Ok. I was hoping someone would actually man up and bet you, but I guess I should have know with this bunch. It's amazing how many professional traders there are on this board who always buy at the bottom and sell at the top yet can't afford to move out of their parents' house. Oh well, good luck with your new house purchases e-man.

48   swebb   2012 Aug 29, 1:26am  

BMWman:

English is my 0th language and I don't understand either...

particularly the flying lawnmower gorilla one...what in the hell is that about?

49   bmwman91   2012 Aug 29, 1:47am  

E-man and swebb...

Do not allow the rustling meme to rustle your jimmies.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/that-really-rustled-my-jimmies

50   bmwman91   2012 Aug 29, 1:48am  

tiny tina says

Ok. I was hoping someone would actually man up and bet you, but I guess I should have know with this bunch. It's amazing how many professional traders there are on this board who always buy at the bottom and sell at the top yet can't afford to move out of their parents' house. Oh well, good luck with your new house purchases e-man.

Who DOESN'T always buy low and sell high? Not making money on stocks is for poor people.

51   swebb   2012 Aug 29, 2:51am  

bmwman91 says

Do not allow the rustling meme to rustle your jimmies.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/that-really-rustled-my-jimmies

Ahh, thanks for the translation. Does this mean I'm getting old and out of touch?

52   tiny tina   2012 Aug 29, 3:01am  

swebb says

Ahh, thanks for the translation. Does this mean I'm getting old and out of touch?

I could be wrong, but I think it just means you aren't a teenage girl.

53   zzyzzx   2012 Aug 31, 2:51pm  

Already down to 18.058/sh

54   Serpentor   2012 Aug 31, 3:07pm  

Are people's jimmies rustled yet?

55   bmwman91   2012 Aug 31, 5:48pm  

My suspicion when the next lock-up period ends...

If I had to guess, 90% or more of the available shares for shorting will be shorted, the price will not tank as expected, causing the shorters to cover and drive the price up. Then people will unload, and the price will tank just late enough that the shorters won't capitalize on it and declare, "WTF, mate?!"

56   Eman   2012 Sep 1, 9:22am  

Serpentor says

Are people's jimmies rustled yet?

So how do you make the lawn-mower fly again? :)

57   Eman   2012 Sep 1, 9:31am  

bmwman,

Based on the project growth, FB is worth around $14/share by this time next year. In a perfect world, the stock should be selling for $11.50/share now. Of course, we're not living in a perfect world. That's why it has been selling north of its value. For this reason, I'm not a buyer of FB.

On the other hand, ZNGA might be trading at $5 -$6/share this time next year based on its projected growth. I'm eyeing ZNGA now and debating on putting in a 2,000 share order for it at $2.66. Still eyeing. :)

58   bmwman91   2012 Sep 1, 10:48am  

Facebook does in fact have substantial earnings right now. It is a very profitable mid-sized corporation. The only real mistake was in how the stock was valued at IPO. I do not see them going out of business or becoming completely unprofitable.

I will be the first to admit that talking trash is good fun though. The icing on the cake is having people vehemently defend the stock price and company while having no real personal affiliation, and openly succumbing to the butt hurt.

59   Eman   2012 Sep 1, 6:39pm  

bmwman91 says

Facebook does in fact have substantial earnings right now. It is a very profitable mid-sized corporation. The only real mistake was in how the stock was valued at IPO. I do not see them going out of business or becoming completely unprofitable.

However, the stock is over-valued. Just like AAPL has substantial earning power, but that doesn't justify the stock selling at $2,000/share now. FB will continue to tank if it doesn't increase its earnings and growth more than the projected 23% /year in the next 2-4 quarters.

bmwman91 says

I will be the first to admit that talking trash is good fun though. The icing on the cake is having people vehemently defend the stock price and company while having no real personal affiliation, and openly succumbing to the butt hurt.

Talking trash is all dandy and good, but you'd better back it up when someone called your bluff. I agree that FB has a good chance of tanking to $13, but I just disagree with the timing. That's it. At $18/share, the stock is still way too expensive compared to its earning power. Buying the stock at this price is a speculative bet. The stock is still in a downtrend and hasn't gone sideways yet.

ZNGA, on the other hand, has been going sideways for about a month now. However, it hasn't broken out of its downtrend yet. That's why I'm still waiting & debating on it.

60   Serpentor   2012 Sep 2, 2:50am  

Come on man. People has ben talking shit about the housing market on this web site. I didnt see any rules about backing it up when the bulls called. I think we pretty much agree (except for Tina) the stock is going down for the rest of the year. Any predictions on specific numbers a specific time is pure speculation. Especially when a stock is owned by so many irrational kamakazi inverters like tina.

61   bmwman91   2012 Sep 2, 2:50am  

E-Man, I have no argument with that position. Based on present earnings and what I consider likely/realistic growth, the stock price today is still too high. I have read a couple of editorial articles that say that Zuckerberg does not care about that since he still holds a very large majority of control over FB, and he is focused on the company's social mission rather than the business side. If that is the case, then the price definitely is too high right now, but investors should not be crying about it...it's sort of a "duh" thing if he has been openly stating this.
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/becoming-clear-no-one-actually-read-facebook-ipo-160120121.html

In order to get in-line with the P/E ratio of the rest of NASDAQ, the FB stock price is looking at $5 per share (less when a large number of shares come on-market later this year). Will it actually go that low? I don't know, but for some reason I don't think so. I am sure that they are working on ways to cash in on mobile since that is where all of the users are going. I have no doubt that FB management is fully cognizant of this. If they are successful at that, their revenues will probably go up by a multiple or two. Time will tell though.

62   bmwman91   2012 Sep 2, 2:52am  

Serpentor says

Especially when a stock is owned by so many irrational kamakazi inverters like tina.

Bro, how can it NOT be a solid investment? I mean, even pets can have accounts! Purina pet chow ad revenue.....HELLOOOOOOO!

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