patrick.net

Fluff piece. You can tell when they talk about foreign buyers in a dollar amount, with no context as to what percentage of total sales that is.

Also, it cracks me up when the media says things like: "As the U.S. housing market slowly starts to recover, foreign investment is helping it along." Starts to recover? No, prices were horribly overinflated, and now they are closer to where they SHOULD be with inflation. What is there to "recover" from? If anything, housing is still overpriced, but is going up due to massive government intervention. To use the word "recover" implies that the bubble was normal, and that current prices are the aberration, which is exactly the opposite of the truth.

robertoaribas says

I don't care. an increase over the same dollar amount a few years ago is an increase... I'm not in the luxury home market, so I don't really care, but you can't deny a doubling of investment dollars from china will help certain areas... or you can, if you don't like facts...

Actually, I love facts. That's why articles that provide no context for the figures they cite bug the shit out of me. You see, we cannot have a meaningful conversation here about the effect of foreign investment on the housing market, because the article provides no useful data.

Data without context is useless.

robertoaribas says

case-shiller and every other in biased indicator would disagree with you;

Sorry, not sure what you're trying to say. Did you mean "unbiased"? At any rate, Case/Shiller most certainly agrees with what I am saying. Are you seriously arguing that housing is underpriced right now? You're gonna have to prove that one, bub, 'cuz you're WAY off the mark.

Pat.net writers can keep telling me what a mistake it was, while I've watched the sales prices of comparable homes climb by 30 to 50%, and the rent at twice my mortgages isn't too shabby either.

That's a strawman. I didn't say buying is a mistake. In fact, I bought a house earlier this year. What I'm saying is, it's not underpriced right now. And saying it needs to "recover" implies that it's underpriced.

For your viewing pleasure:

Prices are back right about where they SHOULD be; not underpriced.

robertoaribas says

Homeboy says

Are you seriously arguing that housing is underpriced right now? You're gonna have to prove that one, bub, 'cuz you're WAY off the mark.

absolutely. In Phoenix, it certainly was 12 to 24 months ago. When the mortgage is under 50% of the rent, yeah, that is what I'd call underpriced! when the hell in history has that ever been the case?

Now, with 30 to 50% increases in many of my investment areas, it is less underpriced... but still a buyer pays less than a renter!

And just a little FYI, that little recovery/non recovery has increased my net worth to around 1.5 million, on the 400K of bubble money I put into this game.

Homeboy is arguing national level while you are aruging micro market.

This is a seriously stupid exchange for that particular reason.

By your logic Roberto, since I pay $1671/mo rent for my loft in Downtown Los Angeles, and since a loft 100 sq ft smaller in the building next door to mine just sold for an amount where HOA + mortgage would be $1980/mo, it would be terrible to mortgage a home ANYWHERE.

robertoaribas says

Actually, No, you simply aren't very good at using logic. If someone says, "Housing is overpriced generally" a counterexample is sufficient to disprove that claim. I provided that counter example.
However, If I say, "Phoenix prices are under priced" that does not imply that other places are overpriced. You sadly used a common logic fallacy, the inverse fallacy.
I'll explain:
If a home is in Phoenix, it is undervalued. (my claim)
Your home is not in phoenix, thus it is not undervalued, (your claim)
My statement is P implies Q. you jump to not P implies not Q, which is a fallacy. I didn't say a damn thing about valued anywhere else.
And, at the price to rent you described, i would actually say it is roughly fairly valued; slightly more than rent has traditionally been fair, and over time as inflation adds to rent, and prices generally rise you will likely do fine. Twice rent would be very overvalued;

Yeah, I guess, except that I'm not sure how pointing out housing being underpriced in one city out of the entire nation disproves the statement "Housing is overpriced generally".

IOW, one example most definitely is not sufficient to disprove the statement. And in fact I do not believe even citing "Arizona, Nevada, and Florida" would be sufficient either. Although I suppose there might be quibble over the definition of "generally".

Homeboy says

Data without context is useless.

Purchasing 7 billion worth of houses out of almost a trillion dollar market is not impressive. Less than .75%. I wouldn't count on this driving up housing prices any time soon if I were you.

Pretty good bit of journalism by fox standards.

I own a house, but I too feel that the whole slew of stories about "Foreigners" buying up real estate is a load of hooey. We saw these stories during the bubble too. I don't buy it for a second.

edvard2 says

I own a house, but I too feel that the whole slew of stories about "Foreigners" buying up real estate is a load of hooey. We saw these stories during the bubble too. I don't buy it for a second.

Buy now or be priced out forever by your Oriental overlords?

Hey now, the realtors that Fox interviewed had Chinese names, so they MUST know what's going on! They were basically dead-on though. It's all status-symbol bullshit. These wealthy buyers know almost nothing about the US housing market's workings. They are used to a market where you cannot buy a property without a MINIMUM of 30% down and "buying real estate" is the group-think soup-du-jour. It's anyone's guess what will happen here in 5+ years (it's plainly obvious what's in store from now until then). Dumb foreign money is nothing new in the US and it'll end up the same way it always has.

Also, the last stat that I saw in an article posted here stated that 10% of all RE sales in CA were to Foreigners, primarily Chinese. These sales were mostly in the SFBA, and from what I have seen I'd guess that a good 20% of sales here are to Mandarins.

robertoaribas says

holy christ, nobody ever said they are buying all the homes; simply put, they are investing more than they were before. A LOT MORE.

But the premise always behind these stories seems to be as a sort of scare tactic- as in those Americans looking to buy houses better do it now now now, or those "foreigners" will buy em' all up. The truth of the matter is the impact of them buying here is a tiny, barely measurable blip on the radar and certainly not enough to create a shift in the dynamics.

Heres hoping they burned just as hard as they did at home.

robertoaribas says

Nobody ever said it was a huge market wide change.

It's a statistically insignificant change in the market.

bmwman91 says

Also, the last stat that I saw in an article posted here stated that 10% of all RE sales in CA were to Foreigners

That includes commercial, not just residential.

bob2356 says

That includes commercial, not just residential.

Interesting.

robertoaribas says

that was 7 years ago, I don't see from anything i've read, that it has become any more sane!!!!

The government is imposing a hefty "capital gains" tax on the sale of non-primary residences in Shanghai. The working class people are so priced-out that even the government knows that they need to do something about it, and they are starting to. At least they are being a hell of a lot smarter about the affordability problem and trying to push prices lower instead of lowering lending standards.

But, you are mostly right. It is still not sane by any definition.

robertoaribas says

I used to talk about this with other foreigners I knew in Shanghai... The apartment I rented for $400 a month including all utilities (very nice place, the metro rail station was actually in the building basement... a HUGE convenience in shanghai) was selling then for about $150K wtf? today who knows its probably 3 times as much.

I think the reason behind this is that the economies around there have been so iffy in the past, that $400 might be real low, but over time that house will still have value, where as the money they're saving with might not. It seems that the rent vs buy mantra only works in strong and consistent economies. Those that are "iffy" people pay premiums for homes because they figure it's a hedge against losing it all. I have seen this in several countries where currencies are iffy, or don't normally survive more than a decade or two.

Chinese are buying here, because they can. They're getting more and more money out of their country these days. The government usually frowns upon this, but they're willing to risk it for whatever reason. Probably because they see it as a much safer bet than land in china.

For $7 Billion they could have bought Arizona! Renamed it to Ru-Xiona and used their Ku-Fu prowess to beat up on the NRA die-hards.

Roberto, did you delete my posts? Seriously? Can't hack it in a real debate where you actually have to address the facts, hmmm....?

Dude, Roberto, you should use the ignore function. It's wildly handy.

robertoaribas says

you didn't post any facts... you posted useless personal insults.

You know that's a lie. And you started the insults, so you're just being a hypocrite.

robertoaribas says

I used my zen like calm, and deleted the offensive posts... if he chooses to actually discuss substantive ideas, he is welcome back!

I DID discuss substantive ideas, and you deleted them, because you didn't want to admit you were wrong.

You are doing well for yourself in Phoenix. Phoenix saw some of the craziest rises in valuations relative to incomes during the bubble, and it under-shot the mean line during the crash. If I had to guess, some of the upside being seen may well be the momentum of the herd moving into the area despite it probably being back at or above the mean line. You got in heavily while it was still below that line, so you'll likely be fine no matter what. Hell, if the herd stays on the stampede, you might be able to find some greater fools to quadruple the cash you put in.

Now, acknowledging that, you have to keep in mind that you are an economics academic that is heavily into RE investment, posting about your exploits on a forum primarily inhabited by residents of the SF Bay Area with day jobs that want to buy one house just to live in.

Prime areas of the SFBA saw, at most, 20% declines from bubble prices after the crash, and these areas are seeing many instances of properties changing hands at prices in excess of those seen in 2006. Even the less desirable parts of the "real" Bay Area only saw modest price declines, and as of now the only stuff on the MLS is basically crap next to highways, tear-downs and stuff along SJ Intl's primary flight paths. This is the case on Redfin and Zillow with the following parameters: $800k max price, 6000SF lot minimum, SFH with garage. Between wealthy Asian immigrants and people on the FHA dole (you can get a $729k loan with 3.5% down and a FICO of 580 in the prime counties) it's a real shit show. Mix in the insane low inventories, heavy investor activity and the numerous sweetheart deals that RE agents hook themselves and flippers up with and it is almost comical.

While you are not making things up in your posts, it basically comes off like stuffing salt into wounds when someone talks about how they are making tons of money on RE when most people here have no interest in that and are still really irritated by the wild speculation that blew this place up not too long ago. Hopefully the reasons why a number of posters here react negatively to you are a little more clear. I think that Patrick might want to look into creating a RE Investing sub-forum so that you & the others that make some or all of their living on this stuff have a place to swap advice and discuss their trade.

robertoaribas says

absolutely. In Phoenix, it certainly was 12 to 24 months ago.

You should really start using the phrase, "In Phoenix. . . . " at the beginning of each of your posts.

robertoaribas says

And just a little FYI, that little recovery/non recovery has increased my net worth to around 1.5 million, on the 400K of bubble money I put into this game.

So you have $1.5 million in the bank? Or are you counting paper gains on your houses? I'm guessing the latter. . .

robertoaribas says

I went to Berkeley.

Too bad you didn't get into Stanford.

robertoaribas says

screw housing investment in areas where it is overpriced, find something else to put your energy into!

Absolutely. Thankfully, I have hobbies that I can engage in and enjoy 7 days a week! Running, biking, hiking, rock climbing, embedded controls, woodworking, metal working, car projects...man, I wish I had more free time! A lot of my hobbies benefit greatly from the fact that there is no weather here, and I also have a lot of family in the area. I'd just say "screw it" and leave, but for now it is worth putting up with the throngs of people living here whose list of hobbies has a single entry: make money. The housing thing is increasingly starting to irritate me because rents are going nuts now. If it was still just confined to people bidding on old wooden boxes, I'd be more mellow. Now the stupidity is infecting rentals!

I hear people here complain about the weather sometimes. Get the fuck outta here with that lol. The only time they see the weather is when they are walking to or from their cars. Actually, I am glad that most people here are not all that into the outdoors. The trails and climbing crags are crowded enough as it is!

ducsingle5313 says

robertoaribas says

I went to Berkeley.

Too bad you didn't get into Stanford.

What does that have to do with anything? I know some very smart, successful people with diplomas form Stanford. I also know some squarely-average desk-jockeys that have diplomas form there that aren't doing anything remarkable at all. And some are just plain WEIRD. It's bad form to try to rip on someone about where they got their degree as if that makes any difference to anyone outside of douche-bag social circles.

bmwman91 says

ducsingle5313 says

robertoaribas says

I went to Berkeley.

Too bad you didn't get into Stanford.

What does that have to do with anything?

Just about as much as somebody mentioning that they went to Berkeley in the first place.

robertoaribas says

bmwman91 says

I went to Berkeley.

...as confucius say... man with too much ego, wear his dick on chin.
Not pleasant to see, but canine will lick masters face all day.