patrick.net

Misc says

Mathematically the vast majority of people must lose value on their investments

I think you are confusing 'gambling' with 'investing'. Thus your statement is accurate for Bitcoin and gold but not for true investments that have actual cash flows.

Investing is not a zero sum game. There is no 'house' that has to win by taking your money.

Mathematically every one can gain on investments, indefinitely.

stfu says

Mathematically every one can gain on investments, indefinitely.

I have an idea for you. Take $1 and compound that for say...2000 years at a 3% rate. Whaddya get ??? I'll tell ya. It's a number so large you can't understand it. And that's with a single dollar. Now imagine billions of people doing that with trillions of dollars to start with. Uh huh ! ! !

Misc says

Bitcoin is valued at $2.3 trillion.

Assuming every "coin" is still available and they could be sold for the going price. Market cap doesn't really apply to crypto.

Supply and demand. Crypto relies on the "bigger fool" principle. In order to make money on it you have to find someone willing to pay you more than you paid for it. Fortunately for the crypto speculators the supply of fools is huge.

Misc says

Take $1 and compound that for say...2000 years at a 3% rate.

$47,255,178,755,831,100,000,000,000.00

Onvacation says

$47,255,178,755,831,100,000,000,000.00

So how many earths on a monthly basis need to be created to achieve the next years 3% growth ???

Misc says

Take $1 and compound that for say...2000 years at a 3% rate. Whaddya get ???

Using 2000 years is absurd. Also, you are not lending in a vacuum as the bank loans out the money as a well. In fact, the initial depositor may even be spending job money to buy a product manufactured by a company that took a loan from the initial depositor's bank. Enough wealth was created to pay both sets of interest. This reminds me of the Marxist explaining that any worker at a car factory cannot afford to buy a car made there.

HeadSet says

Misc says

Take $1 and compound that for say...2000 years at a 3% rate. Whaddya get ???

Using 2000 years is absurd. Also, you are not lending in a vacuum as the bank loans out the money as a well. In fact, the initial depositor may even be spending job money to buy a product manufactured by a company that took a loan from the initial depositor's bank. Enough wealth was created to pay both sets of interest. This reminds me of the Marxist explaining that any worker at a car factory cannot afford to buy a car made there.

Of course, it is absurd. Financial systems collapse waaaaaaay sooner than that. This shows the absurdity that there can be perpetual increases in value. Right now the total household wealth in the US is over $170 trillion. US households in aggregate are saving a bit over $1 trillion per year. At 3% (people are taught that rates of return are far higher than that) would be an extra increase of $5 trillion per year. Figure inflation at about 3%...so that's another $5 trillion per year. Totaled up is a nominal increase of about $11 trillion per year. The GDP of the US is about $28 trillion per year.

The absurdity right now is that there is going to be an increase of $11 trillion this year with a $28 trillion economy. Sooner or later there's gonna be a collapse.

Funny thing is that the US is better off than any other country in the world.

MolotovCocktail says

I agree as I view Bitcoin just as a hedge like I do owning gold coins.

But if shit hits the fan, they will be worthless especially since the infrastructure for Bitcoin will not exist like a functioning electric grid, an exchange to transfer the Bitcoin to a buyer, etc

I agree the collapse and despair period before any inkling of recovery will be marked with a Mad Max Road Warrior mindset.

Bullets, canned food, and drinkable water is the desired currency as well as survival skills.

And I doubt I'd be around for the recovery after the collapse when gold will be valued as the next currency.

Speaking of hacking and taking down a network like an electrical grid or communication system, who is behind this hacking of all the airports ?

Chicoms using back-doors to Chinese-made computer systems that are used by the airports ? Is this a way for China to respond to (and retaliate against) Trump such as with the H1-B visa decision ?

.

My take on BTC ... it's a reflection of the tech sector, perhaps a Web3.x incarnation and thus, it'll have a much higher correlation to the Nasdaq100's bullishness (QQQ) over that of commodities and precious metals.

Here's a probabilistic function, using the QQQ as input, when it's trading (greater than 50% of the days within a single quarter) above its 132 day exponential moving average (the 6 mos metric or 2x business quarters), and Bitcoin. The correlation is somewhat predictive for BTC. In other words, it's yet to prove itself as some 'e-Gold' but more a Nasdaq lackey.



What it tells me is that if you want tech, buy the QQQ. If you want precious metals, buy gold or silver. If you simply want to trade, then trade BTC.

Otherwise, just settle down with Berkshire Hathaway.

Rin says

What it tells me is that if you want tech, buy the QQQ. If you want precious metals, buy gold or silver. If you simply want to trade, then trade BTC.

Otherwise, just settle down with Berkshire Hathaway.

BTC has been more and more adopted and it went past an inflection point when Larry Fink endorsed it with Blackrock's BTC fund.

Tech Bros seem to like it a lot since it is part of finance tech or FinTech, and Saylor says he expects BTC will appreciate around 30% a year for next 20 years.

.

AD says

he expects BTC will appreciate around 30% a year for next 20 years.

$20 million a "coin"?

Onvacation says

AD says

he expects BTC will appreciate around 30% a year for next 20 years.

$20 million a "coin"?

$115,000 today and in 5 years

(1.30)^5 x $115,000 = 3.71 x $115,000 = $426,650

One thing about those Crypto kids. They are not shy about the price they put on themselves. Tether (the company behind it not how much in assets it has) is trying to raise about $20 billion in new funds through a stock offering (private of course). It is shooting for pricing that would value the company at about $500 billion. Roughly 1.5 times the market cap of Bank of America, or more than Exxon/Mobile.

Now that Trump has given the all clear to allow 401-k money to go into Private Equity...well price it to the Moon baby.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/09/23/tether-reportedly-seeks-lofty-500-billion-valuation-in-capital-raise-.html

Incredible that on 22 October 2025, Bitcoin bottomed in intraday trading around $103,000.

Now only five days later, Bitcoin is up around 13% from that intraday low.

blue-green-yellow-red stages of Bitcoin

https://www.blockchaincenter.net/en/bitcoin-rainbow-chart/

AD says

Incredible that on 22 October 2025, Bitcoin bottomed in intraday trading around $103,000.

Now only five days later, Bitcoin is up around 13% from that intraday low.

Exchanges and crypto billionaires are gaming the crypto world.

ElYorsh says

Exchanges and crypto billionaires are gaming the crypto world.

Markets ???? Manipulated ???? --- Oh, heaven forbid.

very few times does Bitcoin price hit the top band of the chart and then reach the bottom band of the chart except for 2014 to 2016

the key is to reduce volatility in order to sustain the asset class and to maintain enough trust in it to ensure there are enough traders and investors

If there are frequent periods of extreme volatility like Bitcoin's price reaches the red region of the rainbow chart and then quickly drops to the green and blue region, then that will create more distrust of Bitcoin.

It will gain a reputation of being too volatile and too speculative of an asset, and it will lose enough confidence in enough traders and investors to prevent it from being a sustainable alternate asset class like silver and gold.

JPMorgan chief global strategist David Kelly said based on current allocations and valuations alone, “many investors should likely consider diversifying their portfolios by adding alternative assets and international stocks.”

Some examples of alternative assets are real estate, commodities like gold and cryptocurrencies. When it comes to real estate, investors don’t need to directly own properties. They can opt for real estate investment trusts (REITs) or REIT exchange-traded funds (ETFs).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/america-going-broke-slowly-says-113000037.html

Bitcoin ETF net flows

Yes—repo market stress and broader liquidity tightening are likely contributing to Bitcoin’s recent price drop. While Bitcoin isn’t directly tied to traditional funding markets, it’s highly sensitive to global liquidity conditions, which are being strained by elevated repo rates, quantitative tightening (QT), and Treasury issuance.

🧠 How Repo Stress Affects Bitcoin
• Liquidity Drain: When repo rates spike, it signals tighter short-term funding. This pulls cash out of risk assets like Bitcoin, especially from institutional players using leverage.
• QT and Treasury Supply: The Fed’s balance sheet runoff and heavy Treasury issuance absorb market liquidity, leaving less room for speculative assets.
• ETF Absorption: Bitcoin ETFs are soaking up supply, but passive flows don’t offset the liquidity crunch fast enough to support prices.

Patrick I got an idea. Sell Patrick.net coins. Free money and plenty of fools with money burning their pocket will buy anything these days.

Make money on transactions and you can turn video game score into profitable business.

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Patrick I got an idea. Sell Patrick.net coins. Free money and plenty of fools with money burning their pocket will buy anything these days.

Make money on transactions and you can turn video game score into profitable business.

=========================

BlackRock CEO Larry Fink has made a dramatic pivot on Bitcoin in 2025, calling it a legitimate asset class and predicting it could reach $700,000 if sovereign wealth funds allocate just 2–5% of their portfolios to it.

🧠 Key Statements from Larry Fink in 2025
• Price Prediction: At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Fink said Bitcoin could hit $500,000 to $700,000 if institutional adoption scales—especially from sovereign wealth funds considering 2–5% allocations.
• Institutional Embrace: He noted that BlackRock is actively engaging with global funds about Bitcoin exposure, signaling a new era of mainstream adoption.
• Reputation Reversal: In an October 2025 interview, Fink acknowledged his past skepticism—once calling Bitcoin a “money laundering index”—but now says, “The market teaches you to always rethink your assumptions”.
• Safe-Haven Comparison: At the Global Financial Leaders’ Summit in Hong Kong, Fink compared Bitcoin to gold, calling it a “growing safe-haven asset” amid global uncertainty.
• ETF Success: BlackRock’s iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) has become one of its top-performing ETFs, managing nearly $100 billion in assets

Bitcoin’s all-time high price was approximately $126,080, reached on October 6, 2025. It recently dropped to $89,000, so about a 30% crash.

• Most crashes last 6–12 months, with drawdowns of 70–85% during speculative bubbles.
• Post-halving years often see volatility as markets digest supply changes and macro shifts.
• Recent cycles show smaller drawdowns, possibly due to institutional ETF flows and maturing markets.

Notice there was no rally to the upper half of the rainbow chart after the last halving such as to the red region. And its been at least 3.5 years the Bitcoin price has remained in the bottom half of the rainbow chart.

Similar chart, notice it has not reached the upper band for last few years

FortWayneHatesRealtors says

Sell Patrick.net coins.

I don't want to take advantage of anyone. I did have the idea that there ought to be a way to transfer ownership of specific silver coins on the internet, with the option to get physical delivery.

Not sure exactly how it could work though. Say there were a set of little lockers like PO boxes. You could simply send the password to the box as payment. But how to know the coin is really there without going to the box? It would require someone who could be trusted to maintain the boxes and not just steal everything. I suppose that almost the definition of a bank, at least as banks were originally set up.

Or maybe each coin could have a serial number, and the ownership of that number could be tracked.

Obviously this is half-baked, but it would tie electronic payment to real physical silver.

Bitcoin holdings: El Salvador holds approximately 7,474 Bitcoin, valued at about $700 million as of mid-November 2025.

Lack of a traditional sovereign fund: The country has not established a traditional sovereign wealth fund for its Bitcoin holdings, so there is no public figure for how much of a specific fund is allocated to Bitcoin.

Comparison to GDP: The $700 million in Bitcoin is approximately 1.6% of El Salvador's GDP, according to VanEck data, but this is not a measure of a sovereign fund.

..................................

As of October 16, 2025, the U.S. federal government holds an estimated 325,447 bitcoins (BTC). The total value of the government's crypto holdings was approximately $29.7 billion as of November 2025, according to Arkham Intelligence data.

How the U.S. government acquired Bitcoin

The government has historically acquired bitcoin through seizures from criminal and civil asset forfeiture proceedings. The forfeited bitcoin often comes from crimes such as dark web marketplaces and large-scale fraud operations.

A significant seizure of 127,271 bitcoins occurred in October 2025, which increased the total holdings to over 325,000 BTC.

On March 6, 2025, President Donald Trump signed an executive order establishing a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve to hold the forfeited bitcoin. The government previously had a history of auctioning off seized crypto, but the new order restricts sales.

Details on Eric Trump’s Bitcoin Exposure
• American Bitcoin Corp: Founded in March 2025 by Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr., headquartered in Miami.
• Holdings: As of early November 2025, the company’s treasury reached 4,004 BTC, after acquiring 139 more coins during the October–November market sell-off.
• Valuation: At ~$104,000 per BTC (early November average), this equals about $415 million in Bitcoin.
• Ranking: American Bitcoin is now among the top 25 largest public Bitcoin treasuries globally.
• Eric Trump’s Role: He serves as co-founder and Chief Strategy Officer, meaning his exposure is tied to the company’s holdings rather than a disclosed personal wallet.

Theoretically crypto can only go to zero...theoretically.

Crypto is a world-wide thingy: . https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/bitcoin-ownership-by-country

It now on average costs considerably more to mine a bitcoin than it is worth given electric costs.

Dunno how far down it has to go before it hits the event horizon.